Turkey hints at Syria operation amid discussions of NATO enlargement

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reviews the honor guard during a ceremony marking the docking of a submarine, in Kocaeli, Turkey, Monday, May 23, 2022. (AP Photo)
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Updated 24 May 2022
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Turkey hints at Syria operation amid discussions of NATO enlargement

  • Turkey’s operation is expected to focus on areas where the country is targeted the most by cross-border attacks
  • The announcement comes at a time in which Turkey is vehemently objecting to the NATO membership bids of Sweden and Finland

ANKARA: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Monday evening an impending military operation into northern Syria to establish a 30 km-deep safe zone along the southern border. 

Turkey’s operation is expected to focus on areas where the country is targeted the most by cross-border attacks. But Erdogan did not go into further detail. 

Turkish forces have launched three major incursions into northern Syria since 2016 and took control of areas along the border against threats from Daesh and the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, listed as a terror group by Turkey. 

The withdrawal of the Syrian Kurdish forces up to 30 km into Syria was part of the Russia-Turkey deal in Sochi. 

The announcement comes at a time in which Turkey is vehemently objecting to the NATO membership bids of Sweden and Finland, citing the two Scandinavian countries’ support for the terror groups and their arms embargoes following Turkey’s previous Syria operation in 2019. 

Although the two countries deny any support given to the terror groups on their soil, Ankara asked Sweden and Finland for the extradition of 33 members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, and an end to the ongoing military export bans to Turkey. 

Turkey considers the YPG as the Syrian offshoot of the PKK. 

The timing of the announcement, therefore, stirred debate about whether it would be part of a grand bargain between Turkey and the Western alliance to decrease its support for the Syrian Kurdish militants in exchange for Ankara lessening its pressure on the enlargement goals of the organization. 

Noah Ringler, an expert from Georgetown University, thinks the northwestern Syrian city of Tal Rifaat is the most likely target of the operation, while Kobane or Manbij is the next most likely option. 

“I believe Erdogan still seeks a broader deal with US President Joe Biden on NATO enlargement and the purchase of American-made F-16s and would not like to confront US forces further east near Al-Malikiyah,” he told Arab News. 

An operation in Tal Rifaat, situated halfway between Aleppo and the Turkish border, has been on the agenda for years as the YPG seized control in the region. The city houses Kurds who fled Afrin when Turkey carried out an operation there in 2018 to root the YPG out.  

Ankara, however, perceives a threat coming from the Tal Rifaat area, which is believed to be used by Kurdish forces to conduct cross-border attacks on Turkey. 

There have been several fire exchanges between Turkish forces and Syrian Kurdish militants for a couple of months. 

As Tal Rifaat is home to many refugees living in Kilis and Azaz and has limited Russian and Iranian presence, Ringler said that Russia is likely willing to let Turkey attack within certain areas with some pre-conditions, like ensuring the lack of Turkish sanctions on Russian goods and services. 

“Russia may also ask Turkey to put pressure on the PYD (Kurdish Democratic Union Party) to return them to the table with Syrian President Bashar Assad, as talks have stalled,” he added. 

Experts also note that any such operation could take advantage of Russia’s preoccupation with the invasion of Ukraine and US commitments to defend Taiwan against China.  

According to Ringler, Turkey’s drone strikes on the YPG in northeastern Syria have always been satisficing, as elections in Turkey draw near. 

“Erdogan considers taking new steps as vital to distract the attention from domestic issues and divide the opposition over Kurdish and Syrian issues,” he said. 

The details of the operation and the decision to launch it will however be discussed during Turkey’s National Security Council meeting on Thursday.

Whether the operation has or will have the green light from Russia and US is still unclear. 

“Turkish Armed Forces have the capacity to attack all of the above areas, but for political reasons it is likely the best for Erdogan to do sequential operations, threatening additional action closer to next year’s elections and in order to gain concessions from the US, Iran, Russia and the YPG,” said Ringler.

He added: “I think Assad’s forces will fight back like in February 2020, and the extent of Russian air support will be a key indicator of the extent to which Turkey is coordinating with Russia. Assad’s forces are unlikely to give up positions without trying to impose costs on Turkish-backed Syrian armed groups and the Turkish Armed Forces for their presence in Syria.”

According to Ringler, US Congressional elections will also play a role in negotiations with the US, as presidential powers do not allow Biden to lift some of the existing sanctions and Congress remains committed to arms sanctions on Turkey related to its S-400 Russian missile defense purchase and Operation Peace Spring into Syria. 

Currently hosting about 3.7 million refugees from Syria whose presence in the country has increasingly become a hot topic among several opposition parties pledging their immediate repatriation, Ankara has been discussing their resettlement to briquette houses in safe areas along the border. 

The Turkish government is also worried that public anger over the refugees’ widespread presence will dominate the upcoming election round and influence electoral preferences. 

The latest official figures revealed that 400-500 people are returning each week to the safe zones on the Turkey-Syria border. Since 2016, around half a million Syrians have returned to those zones, which are controlled by Ankara-backed groups.  

“The regions they returned to are Jarablus, A’zaz, Marea, Al-Bab, Ras Al-Ayn, and Tal Abyad. These are all safe regions in Syria that we have created,” Turkey’s Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu recently said.

However, the Syrian government considers the presence of safe zones as a kind of “colonialism” and “ethnic cleansing.” Syria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently urged the international community to stop Ankara from proceeding with its plans for building houses and local infrastructure in safe zones to send 1 million refugees back to their country.  

Caroline Rose, a senior analyst at the New Lines Institute, thinks that the recently announced Turkish military operation in northern Syria is certainly a tactic Ankara has employed to test Russia in Syria amid its intervention in Ukraine. 

“It is also a message Turkey is wishing to send following its opposition to Swedish and Finnish membership in NATO due to grievances related to the PKK, as well as to take advantage of Russian distraction in Ukraine to alter the status quo in Syria and deepen its footprint in the northeast,” she told Arab News. 

Rose, however, does not think the US will offer any public or private green light for this operation, nor will Russia publicly support it.

The Syrian Democratic Forces, in a statement on Tuesday, accused Turkey of “destabilizing the region.”

Navvar Saban, a military analyst at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul, believes there is always an opportunity for Turkey to launch a tactic operation targeting a specific area. 

“The most reasonable targets would be Tal Rifaat and Manbij. I don’t expect any operation on the eastern side of Syria. Turkey should concentrate its efforts and forces on controlling the strategic points on the M4 highway in Idlib that became a de facto frontier between Turkish-controlled pockets and Kurdish forces,” he told Arab News. 

Erdogan’s announcement also came a day before diplomatic delegations from Sweden and Finland landed in Ankara on Tuesday to discuss their NATO membership bid, where Turkey is expected to present some files on PKK activities during their meeting with the Turkish Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin and Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal on Wednesday. 


‘Shaking with cold’: tourists from Egypt boat sinking brought ashore

Updated 19 min 38 sec ago
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‘Shaking with cold’: tourists from Egypt boat sinking brought ashore

  • Egypt released video footage Wednesday of the latest tourists rescued from a boat that capsized off the country’s Red Sea coast, where at least four people lost their lives

CAIRO: Egypt released video footage Wednesday of the latest tourists rescued from a boat that capsized off the country’s Red Sea coast, where at least four people lost their lives.
Seven people remain missing more than two days after the “Sea Story” was struck by a wave and overturned in the middle of the night.
The vessel had set off Sunday from Port Ghalib, near Marsa Alam in the southeast, on a multi-day diving trip with 31 tourists — mostly Europeans, along with Chinese and US nationals — and a 13-member crew.
Thirty-three were rescued, including tourists seen in the video stepping off a speedboat, draped in blankets, at a marina near Marsa Alam.
“We were shaking with cold,” one unidentified man said in the footage.
The tourists who appeared in the video had spent at least 24 hours inside a cabin of the overturned vessel before rescuers found them Tuesday morning, according to a government source close to the rescue operations.

A military-led team on Tuesday rescued two Belgians, one Swiss national, one Finnish tourist and one Egyptian, authorities said.
Two survivors — one identified by authorities on camera as an Egyptian — were rolled out on stretchers, one of them conscious and speaking.
A Belgian tourist sobbed when she was greeted by an Egyptian general.
Red Sea governor Amr Hanafi said the boat capsized “suddenly and quickly within five-seven minutes” after being struck by a strong wave in the middle of the night, leaving some passengers unable to escape their cabins.
The Sea Story had been due to dock on Friday at the tourist resort of Hurghada, about 200 kilometers (124 miles) north of Marsa Alam.
Authorities in Egypt have said the vessel was fully licensed and had passed all inspection checks. A preliminary investigation showed no technical fault.
There were at least two similar boat accidents in the Marsa Alam area earlier this year. There were no fatalities.
The Red Sea coast is a major tourist destination in Egypt.
Dozens of dive boats crisscross between Red Sea coral reefs and islands off Egypt’s eastern coast every day, where safety regulations are robust but unevenly enforced.

 


World reacts to Lebanon war ceasefire

Updated 15 min 18 sec ago
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World reacts to Lebanon war ceasefire

PARIS: World leaders have welcomed a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which came into force on Wednesday morning (0200 GMT).

The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will protect Israel from the threat of Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah and create the conditions for a “lasting calm,” US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said ahead of the truce coming into force.
“The announcement today will cease the fighting in Lebanon, and secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations operating from Lebanon,” the leaders said in a joint statement.
The United States and France will work “to ensure this arrangement is fully implemented” and lead international efforts for “capacity-building” of the Lebanese army, they added.
Biden welcomed the deal as “good news” and also said the US would lead a fresh effort to secure a truce between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.
Macron said the Lebanon ceasefire should “open the path” for an ending to the war in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked the US president for his “involvement in securing the ceasefire agreement.”
He told Biden in a call that he appreciated the US leader’s “understanding that Israel will maintain its freedom of action in enforcing it,” according to Netanyahu’s office.
Ahead of Israel’s approval of the deal, Netanyahu said the “length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon” and the truce would allow Israel to “intensify” pressure on Hamas and focus on the “Iranian threat.”
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said the ceasefire was a “fundamental step” toward restoring stability in the region.
Thanking France and the US for their involvement, Mikati also reiterated his government’s commitment to “strengthen the army’s presence in the south.”
Iran, a backer of both Hezbollah and Hamas, welcomed the end of Israel’s “aggression” in Lebanon, after the ceasefire came into force.
“Welcoming the news” of the end of Israel’s “aggression against Lebanon,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said, stressing Iran’s “firm support for the Lebanese government, nation and resistance.”

Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said the group “appreciates” Lebanon’s right to reach an agreement that protects its people, and it hopes for a deal to end the war in Gaza.

“Hamas appreciates the right of Lebanon and Hezbollah to reach an agreement that protects the people of Lebanon and we hope that this agreement will pave the way to reaching an agreement that ends the war of genocide against our people in Gaza,” Abu Zuhri told Reuters.
China said it was “paying close attention to the current situation in Lebanon and Israel.”
“We support all efforts conducive to easing tensions and achieving peace and welcome the agreement reached by relevant parties on a ceasefire,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock welcomed the deal, hailing it as “a ray of hope for the entire region.”
“People on both sides of the border want to live in genuine and lasting security,” Baerbock said, calling the deal “a success for diplomacy.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer praised a “long overdue” ceasefire that would “provide some measure of relief to the civilian populations” of both Israel and Lebanon.
Calling for the truce to be “turned into a lasting political solution in Lebanon,” Starmer vowed to be at the “forefront of efforts to break the ongoing cycle of violence in pursuit of a long-term, sustainable peace in the Middle East.”
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen hailed the “very encouraging news” of the ceasefire, saying it would increase Lebanon’s “internal security and stability.”
The announcement was welcome news “first and foremost for the Lebanese and Israeli people affected by the fighting,” Von der Leyen said.
“Lebanon will have an opportunity to increase internal security and stability thanks to Hezbollah’s reduced influence,” she said.
A top UN official welcomed the ceasefire agreement, but warned that “considerable work lies ahead” to implement the deal.
“Nothing less than the full and unwavering commitment of both parties is required,” said UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.

Jordan said the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah should prompt greater international efforts to bring an end to the war in Gaza.
In an official statement, the kingdom said the move was also a first step towards reversing a dangerous escalation of tensions across the region that had threatened peace and security.

Iraq welcomed the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, calling on the international community to act urgently to end Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza.
A foreign ministry statement called for “multiplying international efforts to avoid any new escalation” along the Israel-Lebanon border, while also urging “serious, urgent steps to stop the continued massacres and violations against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.”

Turkey said that it was ready to give Lebanon the “necessary support for the establishment of internal peace” hours after a ceasefire with Israel came into force.

The Palestinian Authority welcomed the 60-day ceasefire in Lebanon and expressed hope it would bring stability to the region.
“We hope that this step will contribute to stopping the violence and instability that the region is suffering from,” the Palestinian presidency said in a statement, and highlighted the need to enforce a UN resolution for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.


Israeli strikes on Gaza Strip leave 15 dead, medics say

Updated 27 November 2024
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Israeli strikes on Gaza Strip leave 15 dead, medics say

CAIRO: Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip killed 15 people on Wednesday, some of them in a school housing displaced people, medics in Gaza said, adding that the fatalities included two sons of a former Hamas spokesman.
Health officials in the Hamas-run enclave said eight Palestinians were killed and dozens of others wounded in an Israeli strike that hit the Al-Tabeaeen School, which was sheltering displaced families in Gaza City. Among those killed were two sons of former Hamas spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, according to medics and Barhoum himself.
In the Shejaia suburb of Gaza City, another strike killed four people, while three people were killed in an Israeli air strike in Beit Lahiya on the northern edge of the enclave where army forces have been operating since last month.
Separately, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US and France, a rare victory for diplomacy in a region shaken by two wars for over a year.
Iran-backed Hezbollah militants began firing missiles at Israel in solidarity with Hamas after the Palestinian militant group attacked Israel in October of 2023, killing around 1,200 people and capturing over 250 hostages, Israel has said, triggering the Gaza war.
Israel’s 13-month campaign in Gaza has left nearly 44,200 people dead and displaced nearly all the enclave’s population at least once, according to Gaza health officials.
Months of attempts to negotiate a ceasefire have yielded scant progress and negotiations are now on hold, with mediator Qatar saying it has told the two warring parties it would suspend its efforts until the sides are prepared to make concessions.
US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday his administration was pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and that it was possible that Saudi Arabia and Israel could normalize relations.


Israeli military says it fired to stop suspects reaching Lebanon no-go zone

Updated 27 November 2024
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Israeli military says it fired to stop suspects reaching Lebanon no-go zone

DUBAI: Israeli forces on Wednesday fired at several vehicles with suspects to prevent them from reaching a no-go zone in Lebanese territory and the suspects moved away, the Israeli military said in a statement, hours after a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah came into effect at 0200 GMT.


Hezbollah says launched drones ahead of ceasefire at ‘sensitive military targets’ in Tel Aviv

Updated 27 November 2024
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Hezbollah says launched drones ahead of ceasefire at ‘sensitive military targets’ in Tel Aviv

BEIRUT, Lebanon: Lebanon’s Hezbollah said it launched drones at “sensitive military targets” in Tel Aviv on Tuesday evening, after deadly Israeli strikes in Beirut and as news of a ceasefire deal was announced.
“In response to the targeting of the capital Beirut and the massacres committed by the Israeli enemy against civilians,” Hezbollah launched “drones at a group of sensitive military targets in the city of Tel Aviv and its suburbs,” the group said in a statement.