IMF raises Saudi economy growth forecast for 2023 to 3.7%

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Updated 28 July 2022
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IMF raises Saudi economy growth forecast for 2023 to 3.7%

RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund has raised its expectations for the growth of the Saudi economy in 2023 to 3.7 percent, up from its April forecast of 3.6 percent.

The IMF has kept its expectations for the Kingdom’s economic growth during 2022 unchanged at 7.6 percent, according to an update of its World Economic Outlook.

Internationally, the fund had cut global growth forecasts again, warning that downside risks from high inflation and the Ukraine war were materializing and could push the world economy to the brink of recession if left unchecked.

Global real gross domestic product growth will slow to 3.2 percent in 2022 from a forecast of 3.6 percent issued in April, the IMF said in an update of its World Economic Outlook.

It added that world GDP actually contracted in the second quarter due to downturns in China and Russia.

UPDATE

When taking a closer look at emerging and developing economies, real GDP growth in China has been revised down to 3.3 percent in 2022, a 1.1 percentage point decrease from its value in April.

Similarly, China’s 2023 real GDP projections will carry on with the same trend.

In the latest IMF report, China’s real GDP is forecasted at 4.6 percent, down 0.5 percentage points from its predicted value in April.  

China continues to suffer from slow economic growth as lockdown restrictions proceed, and global financial conditions tighten due to the war in Ukraine.

In contrast, the 2022 figure for Russia has been revised upwards since April, where the projection for real GDP growth increased by 2.5 percentage points, reaching negative 6.0 percent in IMF’s updated World economic Outlook report.

The same cannot be said for 2023 real GDP growth projections, as the IMF numbers were revised down by 1.2 percentage points from the April economic outlook report— expecting Russia’s real GDP growth to contract by 3.5 percent.  

Moving onto the MENA region, the latest report shows a forecasted real GDP growth of 4.9 percent in 2022, revised down by 0.1 percentage points compared to the April forecast.

Likewise, the figure for 2023 was revised down by 0.2 percentage points, dropping to 3.4 percent growth.

As for the country grouping called "Middle East and Central Asia", the IMF has revised their 2022 GDP growth projections up by 0.2 percentage points from their April estimate, anticipating 4.8 percent growth in 2022.

However, the 2023 projection for the group differs, as the numbers have been revised down by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5 percent growth, according to the latest update from the IMF.

Looking at 2023 growth revisions for individual countries in the group of advanced economies, the US, Germany, and Spain saw the biggest downward revisions of 1.3 percentage points to 1.0, 0.8 and 2.0 percent, respectively.

The Fund's projection for real GDP growth in the Chinese economy for the current year has been revised down by 1.1 percentage points to 3.3 percent, and by 0.5 percentage points to 4.6 percent for 2023.


Saudi Arabia’s industrial sector sees $10bn investment in early 2024: Knight Frank

Updated 02 September 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s industrial sector sees $10bn investment in early 2024: Knight Frank

RIYADH: Factories in Saudi Arabia attracted a total capital of SR38.6 billion ($10.2 billion) in the initial months of this year, reflecting a notable increase in investment compared to 2023.

This funding milestone was achieved two months earlier than the previous year, according to Knight Frank’s annual report.

The report highlights that 410 new industrial licenses were issued and 505 factories commenced production during this period. This growth is also evident in the workforce, with 11,434 new jobs created at these facilities. Of the total investment, 83.7 percent originated from local sources, 8.3 percent from international sources, and 8 percent from joint ventures.

The non-oil sector grew by 3.8 percent in 2023, contributing SR2.5 trillion to the national GDP and now accounting for 63 percent of the country’s economic output. Investment in the industrial sector surged by 63 percent last year, reaching SR15 billion. This trend has continued into 2024, with private sector investment more than doubling in the first quarter to exceed SR7 billion.

By the end of 2023, cumulative investment in the industrial sector had reached SR415 billion, supporting 891 projects across the country and demonstrating strong local and international interest. Global investments in the sector saw an 85 percent increase, according to the report.

The Saudi Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones has played a crucial role in this growth. The developed industrial land now spans over 209 million sq. meters, housing 6,443 factories and 7,946 industrial, logistical, and investment establishments.

Government initiatives

The Saudi Industrial Development Fund has been instrumental in advancing the industrial sector. Over the past 50 years, SIDF has provided loans exceeding SR180 billion to more than 4,000 projects, facilitating total investments of around SR700 billion.

SIDF's National Industrial Strategy aims to elevate export values to SR557 billion by 2030, positioning Saudi Arabia as a prominent global player in the sector. The strategy also targets the creation of 2.1 million new jobs by 2030, with annual growth in the logistics sector expected to reach SR97.5 billion.

The manufacturing sector's annual contribution to GDP is projected to be SR895 billion by 2030, with exports anticipated to hit SR892 billion by 2035. To support these goals, SIDF has introduced several key initiatives. The Tanafus program offers financial support and incentives to local manufacturers, while the Sanea initiative focuses on developing small and medium-sized enterprises within the industrial sector.

Additionally, the Green Finance initiative encourages sustainable industrial practices, and the digital transformation support program helps industries adopt advanced technologies and digital solutions.

Demand for warehouse solutions soars

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly accelerated the growth of e-commerce, driving a substantial increase in the demand for modern warehousing and logistics solutions. This surge has spurred the development of technologically advanced warehouse facilities across Saudi Arabia.

A prime example of this trend is the joint venture between Saudi Aramco and DHL Supply Chain, known as ASMO, which was established to address the rising need for sustainable and efficient supply chain services.

There has also been a notable rise in demand for storage facilities, last-mile logistics centers, and cloud kitchens, especially for smaller, centrally located warehouses.

The food delivery market in Saudi Arabia is booming, valued at $10 billion in 2023 and expected to reach $14.9 billion by 2028, outpacing competitors in the region.

Supply expansion

Over the past 12 months, several key developments have occurred in the supply of warehousing and logistics facilities. In Riyadh, the total stock of warehouse and logistics space has expanded to 28 million sq. meters, with the majority of new facilities located in the Industrial Gate City.

Jeddah has also experienced significant growth, increasing its total warehouse and logistics stock to 19.6 million square meters. Noteworthy projects in Jeddah include Maersk’s logistics park and Aramex’s facility at Jeddah Islamic Port, along with several plants developed by Logi Point in Zahid Business Park.

In contrast, the industrial stock in the Eastern Province has remained relatively static over the past year, with no major completions, resulting in a total stock of 7.96 million square meters. This stable supply has contributed to high occupancy rates, particularly in strategically located areas near key transport links and industrial zones.

Rising rents reflect growing demand

The increasing demand for warehouse and industrial facilities has led to a rapid rise in rental prices. In Riyadh, warehouse rents have surged by 10.5 percent to SR210 per sq. meter, while in Jeddah, rents have risen by 1.5 percent to SR208 per sq. meter.

These rental rates reflect the market average for light industrial units and Grade B warehouse and logistics facilities, with supply constraints for primary and Grade A spaces across Saudi Arabia. National occupancy levels have reached a record high of around 97 percent, highlighting the strong demand in the market.

In Riyadh, the demand for logistics and warehouse facilities is particularly intense, driven by ongoing transportation and infrastructure projects as well as landmark giga-projects such as Diriyah Gate, King Salman Park, New Murabba, and Qiddiya. These initiatives boost the need for construction and building materials and spur the development of new industrial and logistics hubs.

Challenges

Despite significant growth, Saudi Arabia is grappling with a shortage of high-quality warehouse spaces. This issue is exacerbated by the cautious investment behavior of local landowners, who are hesitant to undertake speculative development projects. This reluctance, largely due to a lack of experience in developing real estate that meets international standards, has resulted in a critical supply gap, particularly in Riyadh.

However, there is increasing interest from international developers eager to enter the Saudi market. These developers bring extensive expertise in constructing top-tier industrial and logistics infrastructure. Potential partnerships between international and local developers could help alleviate the supply shortage over time. Nevertheless, the construction and availability of new warehouse spaces are expected to take about two years, suggesting that the shortage will persist in the near term.

Outlook

Saudi Arabia’s strategic location at the crossroads of Asia, Africa, and Europe, coupled with its status as the largest market in the GCC and a key consumption center in the MENA region, makes it a vital commercial hub. Its position along the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea, through which 13 percent of global trade flows, provides significant advantages, establishing the Kingdom as a natural gateway to international markets comprising over 6 billion people.


Saudi Arabia forms new business council to strengthen ties with Eastern Europe

Updated 02 September 2024
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Saudi Arabia forms new business council to strengthen ties with Eastern Europe

  • Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the council for its 2024-2028 session
  • Hashem Al-Zahrani has been appointed chairman, with Marwan Al-Mutlaq and Abdullah Al-Bassami as vice-chairmen

RIYADH: Economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Eastern Europe are set to strengthen with the launch of a regional business council aimed at unlocking promising investment opportunities. 

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the council for its 2024-2028 session, the Saudi Press Agency reported. 

Hashem Al-Zahrani has been appointed chairman, with Marwan Al-Mutlaq and Abdullah Al-Bassami as vice-chairmen. 

The move aligns with the Kingdom’s goal to offer promising investment opportunities and strengthen trade partnerships.  

Al-Zahrani said that the council will explore avenues for cooperation between the Kingdom and Eastern European countries in sectors aligned with Vision 2030, as well as those targeted in the economic cooperation agenda of these nations. 

The move has the potential to provide Saudi investors with promising opportunities across a range of economic sectors. 

Business councils, which include Saudi investors and their international counterparts under the Federation of Saudi Chambers, play a key role in enhancing the Kingdom’s global economic ties. 

Saudi Arabia and Poland recently established a joint business council for the 2024-2028 term to boost trade and investment between the two countries. 

The Kingdom’s General Authority for Foreign Trade finalized the formation of the Saudi-Polish Business Council, appointing Abdullah bin Mohammed Abu Dubeil as chairman and head of the executive committee.  

The move is part of Saudi Arabia’s broader strategy to strengthen economic ties with Europe, with a particular emphasis on Poland, one of the continent’s largest economies. 

In recent months, Saudi Arabia has been actively forming business councils with various countries, including Portugal, Uruguay, and Ethiopia, as well as Canada, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Malaysia. 

These initiatives are aimed at enhancing the Kingdom’s global economic connections and fostering investment opportunities across diverse sectors. 

The Federation of Saudi Chambers of Commerce and Industry, headquartered in Riyadh, is the official federation for the 28 Saudi Chambers.

Its primary goals are to advocate for the common interests of these chambers, represent them locally and internationally, and support the private sector’s role in advancing the national economy.


GE Vernova acquires Dussur’s shares in turbine producer GESAT

Updated 02 September 2024
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GE Vernova acquires Dussur’s shares in turbine producer GESAT

RIYADH: The Saudi Arabian Industrial Investment Co., has divested its 55 percent ownership stake in General Electric Saudi Advanced Turbines to US-based GE Vernova. 

GESAT was established in 2017 as a joint venture between the investment company - also known as Dussur – and GE Vernova. 

With the latest share divest, the US firm has become the sole owner of the turbine producer. 

According to a statement, the JV has manufactured over 200 gas turbine modules for power generation plants across 10 countries, including the Kingdom. 

The press release added that GESAT has also played a crucial role in meeting Saudi Arabia’s demand for gas turbines. 

“Dussur’s decision to sell its shares to GE Vernova follows achieving the investment and development objectives of this investment in GESAT, the company has been able to employ and train a number of young national talents; and transfer knowledge in the field of gas turbine technology,” said Raed Alrayes, CEO of Dussur. 

He added that the firm’s investment policy is to enter partnerships with companies and work with them until they achieve the required industrial capabilities. 

Established in 2016 by Saudi Aramco, the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund, and Saudi Basic Industries Corp., Dussur works to develop the nation’s industrial sector as part of the government’s plan to create jobs and diversify the oil-dependent economy.

Joseph Anis, president and CEO of GE Vernova’s Gas Power business in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa said that the company will work with Saudi Arabia to achieve the Kingdom’s economic diversification goals. 

“We intend to continue supporting economic diversification, localization, high-value exports, and talent development efforts in the country to further the Kingdom’s goals under Saudi Vision 2030,” said Anis. 

He added: “We also remain committed to collaborating with various stakeholders to help accelerate Saudi Arabia’s transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060.”

The value of the deal was not disclosed by either company.


Revamped Saudi investment law to boost non-oil revenues, attract foreign investors

Updated 02 September 2024
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Revamped Saudi investment law to boost non-oil revenues, attract foreign investors

  • New legislation aims to enhance Kingdom’s business environment, ensuring equal treatment for domestic and foreign investors
  • Strategic overhaul is expected to drive economic diversification and create jobs

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s recent move to update its investment law is set to have a major impact on non-oil revenues and attract foreign investment by aligning with international best practices. 

Announced in August, the new legislation replaces the Foreign Investment Law of 2000 and aims to enhance the Kingdom’s business environment, ensuring equal treatment for domestic and foreign investors. 

At the launch of the new law, Saudi Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih said the legislation “reaffirms Saudi Arabia’s commitment to creating a welcoming and secure environment for investors.” 

The strategic overhaul is expected to drive economic diversification and create jobs by fostering a competitive environment and supporting the growth of the private sector. 

Key objectives 

The updated law strategically positions Saudi Arabia as a global investment powerhouse. 

Mahmoud Khairy, an economist and policy adviser with previous experience at the Central Bank of Egypt, said the updated investment law “is expected to significantly enhance the Kingdom’s ability to attract high-quality foreign investments, especially in non-oil sectors.” 

“It’s a great milestone for the private sector in Saudi Arabia,” he told Arab News during an interview. 

This shift is expected to create a more level playing field and boost investor confidence, a change that Khairy said will “make it easier and faster for foreign investors to enter the Saudi market.” 

The law aims to boost investor confidence by safeguarding rights, simplifying regulatory procedures, and providing incentives aligned with international best practices. 

These efforts are expected to significantly increase non-oil revenues and job opportunities by attracting more foreign investment, thereby contributing to the Kingdom’s broader goals of economic diversification and reducing unemployment. 

Investor protections 

A key feature of the law is it guarantees protection against expropriation without fair compensation, ensuring that investors have the freedom to manage and dispose of their investments freely. 

Investors are also granted the ability to transfer funds in and out of the Kingdom without delay. Furthermore, the law prioritizes the protection of intellectual property and trade secrets in an effort to foster a secure investment environment. 

“The law emphasizes the protection of investor rights, including mechanisms for handling complaints and safeguarding intellectual property,” said Khairy. “This focus on governance and transparency is likely to reassure foreign investors about the security of their investments.” 

Streamlined procedures 

One of the law’s significant changes is the shift from a licensing requirement to a simplified registration process for foreign investors, reducing bureaucratic hurdles. 

The change “eliminates the need for foreign investment licenses, replacing them with a more straightforward registration process,” according to Khairy. 

This simplification is designed to make it easier and faster for foreign investors to enter the Saudi market, thereby promoting a more dynamic investment environment. 

The law introduced a comprehensive service center to assist investors in navigating government procedures efficiently. 

It also allows for the possibility of granting investment incentives based on specific criteria. 

Khairy said that “these incentives could include tax breaks, subsidies, or other financial benefits, making Saudi Arabia a more attractive destination for foreign investments.” 

International standards 

The new law aligns with global investment trends and practices, ensuring that Saudi Arabia remains competitive in the international market. 

It has incorporated feedback from various stakeholders, including government agencies, international organizations, and the private sector. 

By adopting these global standards, the law aims to improve the Kingdom’s rankings in key global indicators.

Khairy said that by adhering to guidelines from entities like the World Trade Organization and the Gulf Cooperation Council, “the law ensures compatibility with global norms. 

“This alignment enhances investor confidence by guaranteeing transparency, fair treatment, and robust protection of property and intellectual rights,” added the economist. 

Dispute resolution 

To further protect investors, the law provides multiple dispute resolution mechanisms, including arbitration, mediation, and recourse to competent courts. 

The flexibility in dispute resolution aims to reduce costs and duration, making the investment process more appealing and secure. 

“By creating a more attractive investment climate, the law supports the Kingdom’s goals of increasing non-oil revenues and fostering economic development in various sectors,” Khairy concluded. 


Folk Maritime makes first ship purchase, Folk Jeddah

Updated 02 September 2024
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Folk Maritime makes first ship purchase, Folk Jeddah

JEDDAH: Saudi shipping firm Folk Maritime Services Co. is set to enhance regional connectivity with the purchase of its first owned vessel.

Operating under the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund providing regional liner and short-sea services, the firm announced that the M/V Folk Jeddah will soon commence operations at Jeddah Islamic Port.

The press release added that the acquisition of this modern Saudi-flagged container ship marks a significant advancement in the Kingdom’s capabilities.

Folk Maritime’s acquisition of its first container vessel aligns with Saudi Arabia’s National Logistics Strategy, which aims to increase the sector’s contribution to the gross domestic product from 6 percent to 10 percent by 2030. 

This approach underscores the importance of enhancing port operations and strengthening regional maritime connectivity.

By investing in its own ship, Folk Maritime supports the Kingdom’s goal of positioning itself as a key logistics gateway across three continents, thereby contributing to the broader vision of elevating Saudi Arabia’s role in global trade.

Built at China’s Yangfan Shipyard in 2023, Folk Jeddah has a capacity of 1,868 twenty-foot equivalent units and measures 172 meters in length with a breadth of 27.50 meters. 

It has a cargo-carrying capacity of 18,000 tonnes and is equipped with 230 reefer plugs for temperature-controlled shipments.

In July, Folk Maritime signed a memorandum of understanding with Bahri Ship Management to collaborate on technical ship direction, crewing, and the supervision of the building of crafts under the Saudi flag.

With two vessels in its fleet at that time, Folk Maritime was looking to expand its service coverage and acquire crafts that it aimed to place on the Saudi ship registry.

Folk Maritime CEO Poul Hestbaek said the agreement marked a new era of collaboration as two Saudi-based entities joined hands to strengthen the Kingdom’s logistics and maritime infrastructure.

In April, the maritime service company launched a new service connecting Jeddah to the northern Red Sea, further boosting Saudi Arabia’s maritime connectivity.  

The offering links Jeddah Islamic, Yanbu Commercial, and NEOM terminals in the Kingdom to Aqaba Port in Jordan and Ain Sokhna Port in Egypt with weekly trips and a capacity of up to 1,300 standard containers.

The Saudi company takes its name from the Arabic term for traditional wooden boats, reflecting its connection to the region’s rich maritime heritage.