Pakistan’s top court removed political ambiguities but nothing’s normal about the politics

Although the Supreme Court of Pakistan’s Wednesday judgment resolved decades-old constitutional ambiguities concerning the working of the parliamentary system and explained the obligations of various state functionaries like the president and governors in certain situations, it is not likely to normalize the tense political situation the country has been passing through since the ouster of Imran Khan as prime minister in April last year.

The verdict has cleared the way for fresh elections for Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) assemblies in 90 days, to meet a constitutional obligation after the dissolution of two Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) dominated houses in January. Fortunately, the 13-party ruling coalition has decided not to challenge the verdict despite the fact that it torpedoed its plan to delay the process till October on various pretexts, and a totally different interpretation of the order.

Now Pakistan is likely to face some new crises in the times ahead as the situation unfolds in light of this landmark decision. The PTI political party of former prime minister Imran Khan appreciated the verdict, has called off its week-long campaign of courting arrests, and decided to start the campaign for elections in the two provinces.

To meet the requirements of the top court order, the government will have to spare funds of Rs. 30 billion, although until recently it has been claiming the paucity of resources.

- Ashraf Mumtaz

A crisis-like situation blanketed the country after the dissolution of the Punjab and KP assemblies in January. The primary objective of the PTI leadership’s decision was to mount pressure on the ruling coalition government to hold fresh elections in the two provinces – and preferably across the country. However, although caretaker governments had been set up in both the provinces, the federal government and the Election Commission of Pakistan deliberately did not take any measures to honor their constitutional obligations.

The electoral body and governors of both provinces refused to set a date for the polls, each side arguing that the matter fell under the jurisdiction of the other.

However, on being petitioned, the Lahore High Court came up with an order that elections in Punjab be held within 90 days to avoid a violation of the Constitution. Despite a clear order, nothing moved. The order was almost ignored.

President Arif Alvi took everybody by surprise when he unilaterally set April 9 as the date for provincial elections in the two federating units, triggering a new controversy about his competence to take the impugned step. While a debate went on in the media, no practical step was taken by the electoral body to choose new representatives in Punjab and KP. It informed the court that all relevant departments had refused to provide funds, security personnel, and election staff needed for the purpose. The Election Commission of Pakistan used these excuses as justifications to wriggle out of its constitutional obligation.

When the apex court realized that no steps were being taken by relevant authorities to hold elections within the timeline set by the Constitution, it took suo moto notice of the matter while dealing with a totally unrelated case.

 After expeditious proceedings of a few days and hearing the viewpoints of all concerned, the court held that elections must be held in 90 days. It endorsed the president’s initiative to set a date for Punjab where the governor had not signed the dissolution order of the assembly. However, it had a different view about the date fixed by the president for the KP elections. Now, the election commission has been asked to hold consultations with the president to set a date for Punjab polls. However, for KP elections, the electoral body is required to consult with the governor.

This is the first time that the powers of the president and governors have been clarified in case provincial assemblies are dissolved. So far, there was the impression that the president has just no role to play in such a situation.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court’s verdict has landed the coalition government in a difficult situation. To meet the requirements of the top court order, it will have to make all arrangements and spare funds of Rs. 30 billion, although until recently it has been claiming the paucity of resources.

And since the coalition is opposed to holding general elections across the country, it will have to hold a similar exercise in the remaining parts of the country in October– after the assemblies complete their mandated term.

Will the country be able to hold two elections after a gap of only a few months? The answer is no.

If two elections are not possible for economic reasons, then the government will have to think of staging the exercise along with the one for Punjab and KP. But for this purpose, the government will have to move from its rigid position, dissolve the National Assembly and the provincial legislatures of Sindh and Balochistan. So far, it is not thinking along these lines.

Therefore, the future scenario of Pakistan also looks hazy as nobody is in a position to predict who will be in power in Punjab and KP as a result of the new elections, and what role the freshly elected governments will play at the time of general elections – and whether it will be acceptable to the government.

As the saying goes: Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.

- The writer is a senior and veteran journalist with a career spanning 40 years with major national and international newspapers.