Saudi business activity in March keeps up the momentum: PMI report

The latest Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI report, formerly the S&P Global Saudi Arabia PMI, noted that output and new business continued to rise significantly in March. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 04 April 2023
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Saudi business activity in March keeps up the momentum: PMI report

 

RIYADH: Saudi private sector output and new businesses creation saw a marked increase in March, leading to surge in staffing across all sectors and employment growth that was among the strongest seen in the past five years, an economy tracker has revealed. 

The latest Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers’ Index report, formerly known as the S&P Global Saudi Arabia PMI, revealed the Kingdom's metric hit 58.7, a strong indication that the ongoing economic diversification efforts are progressing steadily.  

According to the index, PMI readings above the 50-mark show non-oil private sector growth, while those below 50 signal contraction.  

“Business conditions remain strongly positive at the end of the first quarter of 2023 as improving market conditions and increased development spending helped to boost demand in the non-oil private sector,” said Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank in the report. 

The Kingdom’s PMI, however, slightly slowed down from February, when it marked an eight-year record figure of 59.8. 

In January, the Kingdom’s PMI was 58.2, while in December, it stood at 56.9.  

The rise in Saudi Arabia’s PMI over the past few months, which is a direct indication of robust private sector growth, has also helped the Kingdom to reduce the unemployment rate.  

A new report released by the General Authority for Statistics has revealed that unemployment among Saudis is at its lowest level since records began in 1991. 

The rate fell to 8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, from 9.9 percent in the previous three months.  

For the Saudi government, job creation is a key part of the Vision 2030 economic agenda to cut the Kingdom’s decades-old reliance on oil. 

The PMI survey further noted that non-oil companies in Saudi Arabia saw a sharp uplift in new business intakes in March, as improving market conditions and increased development spending helped to boost demand, while some companies opined that a relatively mild increase in output prices had supported sales growth.  

“Non-oil firms continued to see a strong improvement in demand from foreign customers for two reasons. First, the improvement in industrial landscape has created positive grounds for producers to diversify their production lines and compete in foreign markets, enlarging their market share. Secondly, the recent depreciation of the US Dollar made those goods more affordable and accessible to a number of inflation-torn economies,” said Al-Ghaith.  

Al-Ghaith added that supportive government policies within the Kingdom and improving demand levels are driving business optimism among non-oil firms in Saudi Arabia.  

Meanwhile, input cost inflation faced by non-oil firms picked up to a four-month high in March, driven by rising costs for raw materials and staff wages. 


Qatar’s debt market to surpass $150bn on steady issuance, Fitch says 

Updated 6 sec ago
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Qatar’s debt market to surpass $150bn on steady issuance, Fitch says 

RIYADH: Qatar’s debt capital market is expected to exceed $150 billion in the medium term, supported by continued momentum in issuance across sovereign, bank, and corporate segments, according to a new analysis.

In its latest report, Fitch Ratings said the Qatari DCM expanded 13 percent year on year in the first four months of 2025, pushing outstanding volume to $131.8 billion.  

The analysis noted that sovereign issuers accounted for the majority with 60 percent, while banks and corporates contributed 26 percent and 14 percent, respectively. 

The study positions Qatar’s growth within broader Gulf Cooperation Council trends, where the region’s overall DCM surpassed $1 trillion as of November, driven by robust oil revenues. In a February update, Fitch projected that the GCC will continue to rank among the top emerging-market issuers of dollar-denominated debt through 2025.

On Qatar’s DCM growth, Fitch stated: “Sukuk, ESG (environmental, social, and governance), and Qatari riyal market penetration are on an upward trajectory. The potential development of digital government bonds, as part of the Qatar Central Bank’s Central Bank Digital Currency project, can support the market’s depth and sophistication.”  
 
The DCM, which involves the trading of securities like bonds and promissory notes, serves as a key mechanism for raising long-term capital for both businesses and governments. 

Qatar ranks as the third-largest DCM source in the GCC, holding a 13 percent regional share by the end of April. However, issuance volume dropped to $9.6 billion in the first four months of the year, a 36 percent decline from the same period in 2024. 
 
The share of sukuk in the DCM rose to 16.9 percent or $22 billion, but sukuk issuance slumped 86 percent year on year. Bond issuance fell 18 percent during the same period. 
 
“Fitch’s base case is that the government is going to refinance upcoming external market debt maturities and tap markets to cover a small budget surplus in 2025 under the assumption of a Brent oil price of $65 per barrel (excluding QIA investment income), while banks and corporates are likely to continue to diversify funding sources,” the report stated.  
 
While 67 percent of outstanding Qatari DCM remains US dollar-denominated, 28 percent is in riyals. In 2024, approximately 90 percent of the sovereign’s bond issuance and all sovereign bond sukuk were riyal-denominated. 

The report highlighted that ESG debt is becoming a key dollar funding tool, accounting for almost 30 percent of all dollar DCM issuance in 2024. ESG DCM volume hit $4.1 billion by April, rising 204 percent year on year, with sukuk accounting for 18 percent. 
 
Qatar’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 49 percent in 2025 before falling below 45 percent by 2027 on the back of increased gas output and associated budget surpluses. 

Fitch projects the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to 4.25 percent by the end of 2025, a trend the Qatar Central Bank is likely to follow. 

In a separate February report, the agency forecast Saudi Arabia’s DCM would hit $500 billion by end-2025, spurred by the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 diversification plan. 


Saudi Aramco cuts propane, butane prices for June

Updated 31 sec ago
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Saudi Aramco cuts propane, butane prices for June

RIYADH: Saudi Aramco has reduced its official selling prices for propane and butane for June 2025, according to a company statement issued on Thursday.

The price of propane was cut by $10 per tonne to $600, while butane saw a steeper reduction of $20 per tonne, bringing it to $570.

The adjustments reflect shifts in market conditions and follow a downward trend from the previous month.

Propane and butane, both classified as liquefied petroleum gas, are widely used for heating, as vehicle fuel, and in the petrochemical industry. Their differing boiling points make each suitable for distinct industrial and domestic applications.

Aramco’s LPG prices are considered key benchmarks for supply contracts from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region.

The global LPG market is undergoing a significant shift as steep tariffs on US imports prompt Chinese buyers to replace American cargoes with supplies from the Middle East. 

Meanwhile, US shipments are being redirected to Europe and other parts of Asia.

This realignment is expected to put downward pressure on prices and demand for shale gas byproducts, posing financial challenges for both US shale producers and Chinese petrochemical companies. At the same time, it is likely to drive increased interest in alternative feedstocks such as naphtha.

Middle Eastern suppliers are emerging as key beneficiaries, filling the gap left by reduced US exports to China. In addition, opportunistic buyers in Asian markets like Japan and India are capitalizing on the price drops to secure more favorable deals.


Saudi Arabia holds many ‘promising investment opportunities’ for Chinese investors, says finance minister  

Updated 7 min 10 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia holds many ‘promising investment opportunities’ for Chinese investors, says finance minister  

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia offers “many promising investment opportunities” for Chinese investors across infrastructure, tourism, and industry, said Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan during a high-level meeting.  

Speaking at the fourth meeting of the Financial Sub-Committee of the High-Level Saudi-Chinese Joint Committee, he highlighted opportunities, including “partnerships between the Saudi public sector and Chinese companies.” 

The remarks come as Saudi Arabia and China continue to deepen economic ties, with China remaining the Kingdom’s top trading partner. In the first quarter, Saudi exports to China reached SR44.91 billion ($11.97 billion), while imports totaled SR59.33 billion — underscoring both nations’ focus on strategic cooperation under Vision 2030 and the Belt and Road Initiative. 

Al-Jadaan emphasized the significance of both countries’ roles in the global economy.  

“Saudi Arabia and China have a key role in achieving global economic integration through their effective participation in multilateral platforms,” he said.  

Co-chaired by Al-Jadaan and Chinese Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an, the virtual gathering focused on deepening bilateral economic and financial cooperation, as well as enhancing coordination on global financial platforms.  

Discussions included areas such as tax policy, capital markets, and banking regulation, as well as infrastructure development and public-private partnerships.  

The deepening economic ties between the two countries follow a series of major agreements signed earlier in May during the Saudi-Chinese Business Forum in Beijing.  

At the gathering, the Kingdom and China concluded 57 agreements and memoranda of understanding, valued at over SR14 billion ($3.7 billion), covering sectors including agriculture, water, environment, fisheries, and livestock.  

Notable initiatives include the planned development of a Smart Food Security City in Saudi Arabia, which will comprise factories, laboratories, and integrated logistics services, as well as the establishment of an agro-industrial zone in Jazan aimed at strengthening supply chains and attracting agriculture-focused industrial investment.  

Of the 57 agreements, 26 are dedicated to boosting Saudi exports to China, encompassing products such as dates, vegetables, fruits, and bottled water.  

During the virtual meeting, Al-Jadaan called for enhanced financial integration and alignment of economic policies to support mutual prosperity.  

“It is essential to continue deepening trade and investment relations, promoting financial integration, and coordinating policies between both nations to foster shared prosperity and sustainable development,” he added.  

The minister also emphasized the importance of innovation and collaborative research.  

“To create a more inclusive and competitive financial environment, it is essential to explore new and innovative domains, enhance research and development, and deepen public-private sector partnerships,” Al-Jadaan said.  

Highlighting the value of multilateral engagement, he noted that such platforms are vital for addressing global development goals.  

“Multilateral platforms provide an optimal opportunity for both nations to support emerging economies and achieve important economic goals such as development, poverty reduction, and promoting effective and inclusive dialogue globally,” he said.  

Vice Minister of Finance Abdulmuhsen Al-Khalaf, speaking in a session titled “Economic and Financial Multilateral Coordination,” praised the leadership of Saudi Arabia and China within international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.  

He called for forums like the G20 to prioritize cooperative and solution-focused approaches to global economic challenges.  

Al-Khalaf also acknowledged the two countries’ roles in debt relief initiatives, including the Debt Service Suspension Initiative and the Common Framework for Debt Treatment.  

He urged both sides to continue engaging in global and regional multilateral platforms to strengthen their positions in international financial governance. 


Oil Updates — prices climb $1 as US court blocks Trump tariffs

Updated 29 May 2025
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Oil Updates — prices climb $1 as US court blocks Trump tariffs

  • OPEC+ could hike oil output for July, say sources and analyst
  • US crude stocks fell last week, say sources citing API data

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose by about $1 a barrel on Thursday after a US court blocked most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, while the market was watching out for potential new US sanctions curbing Russian crude flows and an OPEC+ decision on hiking output in July.
Brent crude futures climbed $1.03, or 1.6 percent, to $65.93 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced by $1.06, or 1.7 percent, to $62.90 a barrel at 08:30 a.m. Saudi time.
A US trade court on Wednesday ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from US trading partners. The court was not asked to address some industry-specific tariffs Trump has issued on automobiles, steel and aluminum using a different statute.
The ruling buoyed risk appetite across global markets which have been on edge about the impact of the levies on economic growth, but analysts said the relief may only be temporary given the Trump administration has said it will appeal.
“But for now, investors get a breather from the economic uncertainty they love to loathe,” said Matt Simpson, an analyst at City Index in Brisbane.
On the oil supply front, there are concerns about potential new sanctions on Russian crude. At the same time, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, could agree on Saturday to accelerate oil production hikes in July.
“We’re assuming the group will agree on another large supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day. We expect similar increases through until the end of the third quarter, as the group increases its focus on defending market share,” said ING analysts in a note.
Adding to supply risks, Chevron has terminated its oil production and a number of other activities in Venezuela, after its key license was revoked by the Trump administration in March.
Venezuela in April canceled cargoes scheduled to Chevron citing payment uncertainties related to US sanctions. Chevron was exporting 290,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan oil or over a third of the country’s total before that.
“From May through August, the data points to a constructive, bullish bias with liquids demand set to outpace supply,” Mukesh Sahdev, Global Head of Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy, said in a note, as he expects demand growth outpacing supply growth by 600,000 to 700,000 bpd.
Later on Thursday, investors will be watching for the weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy.
According to the market sources familiar with the API data, US crude and gasoline stocks fell last week while distillate inventories rose.
Meanwhile, a wildfire in the Canadian province of Alberta has prompted the temporary shutdown of some oil and gas production which could reduce supply, and forced residents of a small town to evacuate.


OPEC+ moves to set 2027 production baselines

Updated 28 May 2025
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OPEC+ moves to set 2027 production baselines

RIYADH: OPEC+ announced on Wednesday that it will establish a framework to determine new oil production baselines for 2027, marking a significant step in its long-term planning, said an official statement.

The alliance — comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners including Russia—has been negotiating revised production baselines for several years. These baselines serve as reference points from which member states adjust their output levels.

According to the statement issued following the group’s meeting, said it had tasked the OPEC Secretariat with developing a mechanism to assess each country’s maximum production capacity. These assessments will form the basis for 2027 production targets across all member nations.

Since 2022, the group has implemented three tiers of output cuts. Two remain in place through the end of 2026, while the third is being gradually phased out by eight participating countries. No changes were made to the group’s current production policy at Wednesday’s session.

Due to the sensitive nature of the discussions, all sources spoke on condition of anonymity.

The 2027 baselines, once finalized, are expected to guide production policy after the current round of cuts expires.

Oil prices, which dipped below $60 per barrel in April—the lowest level in four years—following OPEC+’s decision to accelerate May output and amid trade tensions triggered by US tariffs, have since rebounded to around $65.