Will Sudan crisis trigger a fresh wave of migrants and refugees out of Africa?

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Updated 24 May 2023
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Will Sudan crisis trigger a fresh wave of migrants and refugees out of Africa?

  • Majority of Sudan’s displaced people are fleeing internally or to neighboring African countries
  • Experts say country is unlikely to see displacement on the scale of Ukraine, Libya or Syria

JUBA, South Sudan: Thousands of civilians in towns and villages across Sudan have been forced to flee in recent weeks to escape the worsening conflict in the country, which has entered its second bloody month, leading to fears of a new global refugee crisis.

Initial clashes between former allies the Sudanese Armed Forces and paramilitary group the Rapid Support Forces have escalated into heavy combat, displacing hundreds of thousands of people from their homes.

Hospitals have been overwhelmed by the numbers of wounded, and disruptions to basic utilities and shortages of medical supplies have forced medical staff to turn away even the critically ill.

Meanwhile, shortages of food, fuel, electricity and clean water, coupled with economic collapse and the breakdown of law and order, have forced entire communities to pack up and leave in search of security and relief.




Passengers fleeing war-torn Sudan cross into Egypt through the Argeen Land Port on May 12, 2023. (AFP)

In the first four weeks of the crisis, around 200,000 people fled Sudan while another 700,000 were displaced inside the country. As many as 860,000 refugees and returnees are expected by the UN refugee agency UNHCR to flee by October, raising fears among European policymakers of a new influx of migrants over the coming months..

Europe was forced to confront the issue of mass migration in 2015, when hundreds of thousands of people fleeing war, poverty and persecution in Africa, the Middle East and Asia began arriving from across the Mediterranean.

More recently, the continent has absorbed millions of Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion, which has placed additional strain on a continent already grappling with high energy prices as a result of gas shortages.

However, few experts predict Europe will see anything close to the same number of migrants as a result of the crisis in Sudan. Instead, most expect the majority to be displaced internally or settle in neighboring African states.

“Some of the refugees will try to go to Europe, but I don’t see that there will be mass migration going to Europe right now,” Namira Negm, director of the African Migration Observatory in Morocco, told Arab News.

“It will increase but it will not be mass migration. Migration to neighboring countries needs to be addressed first.”

INNUMBERS

  • 116,995 First-time asylum seekers from Sudan in EU+ area during 2015 peak.
  • 860,000+ Refugees and returnees expected to flee Sudan by Oct. (UNHCR).
  • $445m Funding required to support the displaced until Oct. 2023 (UNHCR).

Nevertheless, many in Europe remain fearful that any fresh influx will place additional strains on the resources of host nations, and trigger a surge in anti-immigrant sentiments and support for right-wing populist movements.

In response to previous waves of migration several European nations adopted draconian immigration policies, making it more difficult for new arrivals to obtain asylum and the right to remain. Those who still try to reach Europe face dangerous journeys, including sea voyages in often flimsy and overloaded vessels.

“Reaching Europe would require navigating treacherous and expensive migration routes, often involving perilous sea crossings and facing the risk of exploitation and abuse by human traffickers,” Franck Duvell, a senior researcher at Universitat Osnabruck in Germany, told Arab News.

“Numbers might go up a little, but I don’t see these networks and routes now. Traveling to western Libya has become dangerous and is getting more and more difficult, and therefore (an) increasing number of people actually continue their journey to Tunisia.

“I don’t see Sudanese traveling all the way to Tunisia. It’s simply too far, it’s too expensive, it’s too dangerous … Even if numbers are increasing, the total numbers will still be relatively small.”

Franck Duvell On Migrants Arriving In Europe
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Migrant numbers were already on the rise prior to the start of the conflict last month. More than 36,000 people arrived from Sudan in Europe’s Mediterranean region between January and March, nearly twice the number compared with the same period in 2022, according to the latest UNHCR figures.

Sudan has been caught in a cycle of violent coups and countercoups for years. The latest, in October 2021, resulted in a transitional, civilian-led government being overthrown by a military junta led by the two factions now fighting each other.

Since the start of a shaky political transition in 2019, after long-time autocratic ruler Omar Al-Bashir was ousted, Sudan has been plagued by political and economic instability, prompting many citizens to seek sanctuary outside the country.

According to the EU’s European Asylum Support Office, Sudanese nationals represented the fifth-largest group of applicants for international protection in the EU in 2020, with more than 34,000 new applications. This was a significant increase on the previous year, when there were about 18,000 new applications.

An economic crisis, including high inflation, devaluation of the national currency and shortages of basic goods, had already caused poverty and unemployment to increase in Sudan prior to the latest conflict, which began on April 15.

And it is not only the Sudanese people themselves who face displacement. Before the fighting began, Sudan hosted more than a million refugees, 300,000 of them in the capital Khartoum, who had fled South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Many of them are now returning home or looking for refuge elsewhere in the region or further afield.




Refugees from Sudan who crossed into Ethiopia rest in Metema, on May 5, 2023. (AFP)

If the crisis in Sudan becomes long drawn out, akin to the Syrian civil war, the possibility of large number of Sudanese refugees seeking safety in Europe cannot be ruled out.

“A protracted conflict could create unwanted uncertainties,” Thirsa de Vries, a Sudan expert at the Dutch peace organization PAX, told Arab News.

“This is why it is also important that the international community (engages with) the different actors that might be involved, or works with neighboring countries to close corridors for weapons smuggling.”

Thirsa De Vries On A Peace Process In Sudan
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The possibility of a large number of Sudanese refugees attempting to reach Europe also highlights the importance of cooperation between nations in managing migration flows.

Abdullahi Hassan, a researcher at human rights organization Amnesty International who specializes in Sudan, stressed the importance of ensuring the security and stability of host and origin countries.

“With adequate planning and resources, it is possible to provide safe and orderly routes for those seeking refuge,” he told Arab News.

He said the response to the crisis in Sudan should not solely focus on migration and added: “It must instead prioritize the protection of civilians and access to humanitarian aid.

“The EU and its member states should use their influence, both in the region and in Sudan, to ensure that they are directly engaging with the parties to the conflict to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, encourage immediate and unrestricted access for humanitarian actors, and pressure the Sudanese authorities to allow safe exit passages for people trying to flee the conflict.”

As the fighting continues to rage, the warring Sudanese factions have held talks in Saudi Arabia to discuss a ceasefire but made it clear they would not negotiate an end to the conflict.

Despite the challenges posed by the violence, humanitarian organizations are working to provide aid to those affected by the Sudan crisis. But attacks on aid workers and the looting of relief supplies have made it increasingly difficult for agencies to deliver help to needy communities, which could in turn affect the response of donor countries.




A view shows black smoke and fire at Omdurman market in Omdurman, Sudan, May 17, 2023. (Screengrab/Reuters)

Some organizations “have evacuated international staff, particularly those that were in the most affected areas,” UNHCR spokesperson Faith Kasina, told Arab News, who highlighted the risks and limitations of aid provision during armed conflicts.

The UN’s Children’s Fund, UNICEF, reported on May 5 that at least 190 children have been killed and 1,700 injured since the fighting began in Sudan. While a tentative ceasefire allowed foreign nations to evacuate their citizens from the country in the past few weeks, Sudanese nationals continue to endure great hardships.

Several media outlets, including the BBC, the Washington Post and Al-Jazeera, have interviewed Sudanese citizens who said their passports were locked inside foreign embassies, leaving them trapped in their own country.

Hassan, the Amnesty International researcher, said foreign nations must provide safe evacuation procedures, and that the warring factions must “stop attacking humanitarian aid workers.”

But he added that instances of attacks on workers and the looting of aid supplies “should not be an excuse to withdraw funding.”

“The response to the crisis in Sudan is completely different from the response, for example, Ukraine received when the conflict started in that country,” said Hassan.

“European countries should, nevertheless, provide safe and regular pathways to Europe for those seeking international protection … It is the responsibility of the EU and member states to ensure that such pathways are made available.”

However, public sentiment in Europe appears to be overwhelmingly hostile to refugees. Both Italy and the UK have faced recent criticism for their strict immigration policies, which aid agencies warn could drive more refugees into the arms of smuggling gangs.

In mid-April, Italy passed legislation to curb undocumented migration, including tougher sentences for those convicted of human trafficking and terminating residency permits for migrants who face humanitarian risks.

This drew criticism from search-and-rescue organizations, who warned it would lead to more deaths at sea in the Mediterranean as migrants seek illegal routes to Europe.

The British government has been accused of racial discrimination in its refugee policy. Immigration experts point out that although hundreds of thousands of visas were provided for Ukrainian refugees, there is no plan, or safe route, to help those fleeing violence in Sudan.

Ultimately, the best way to avoid migrant crises is by helping ensure that all countries in Africa are able to offer their citizens a decent quality of life.

Namira Negm On Migration
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“The root cause is lack of development; people lose hope in their country and end up migrating to other countries,” African Migration Observatory Director Negm said regarding the importance of stability in Africa.

“If they have a good life in their own home countries, they will not think of going somewhere else.”

 


Iraq’s Kurdistan enjoys all-day state electricity

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Iraq’s Kurdistan enjoys all-day state electricity

Irbil: More than 30 percent of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region now has 24-hour state electricity, authorities said Thursday, with plans to extend full coverage by the end of 2026.
The northern region of Kurdistan has long promoted itself as a haven of relative stability in an otherwise volatile country.
Despite Iraq’s vast oil wealth, the national grid struggles to meet demand, leaving most areas reliant on imported energy and subject to frequent power cuts.
“Today, two million people across the Kurdistan region enjoy 24-hour electricity... that’s 30 percent of the population,” including the cities of Irbil, Duhok and Sulaimaniyah, said regional prime minister Masrour Barzani.
In 2024, the Kurdistan Regional Government launched “Project Runaki” to deliver round-the-clock power in a region where, like much of Iraq, residents often turn to costly and polluting private generators.
The region’s electricity minister, Kamal Mohammed, said residents were now enjoying “uninterrupted, cleaner, and more affordable electricity.”
“Rollout to other areas is expected to be completed by the end of 2026,” he told AFP.
As part of the transition, roughly 30 percent of the 7,000 private generators operating across Kurdistan have already been decommissioned, he said, a move that has contributed to an estimated annual reduction of nearly 400,000 tons of CO2 emissions.
The project also aims to lower household electricity bills, offering a cheaper alternative to the combined cost of grid power and private generator fees.
However, bills will still depend on consumption and are likely to increase during peak summer and winter months.
Mohammed said the project’s success hinges on the introduction of “smart” meters to curb electricity theft, as well as a new tariff system to promote responsible usage.
“More power has been added to the grid to support 24/7 access,” he said.
Kurdistan has doubled its gas production in the past five years, and most of the power supply comes from local gas production, Mohammed said.
Despite Iraq’s abundant oil and gas reserves, years of conflict have devastated its infrastructure.
The country remains heavily reliant on imports, particularly from neighboring Iran, which frequently interrupts supply. It also imports electricity from Jordan and Turkiye, while seeking to boost its own gas output.
“We stand ready to offer our technical support and assistance” to the federal government, Mohammed said.
In Irbil, resident Bishdar Attar, 38, said the biggest change was the absence of noisy and polluting generators.
“The air is now clear,” he said. “We can now use home appliances freely... as needed.”

Gaza civil defense says 20 killed in Israeli air strikes

Updated 26 min 42 sec ago
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Gaza civil defense says 20 killed in Israeli air strikes

  • Gaza’s civil defense said the first strike hit a tent housing displaced people in Khan Yunis in the south, and the second struck a camp in the north
  • The bombings came as Netanyahu met Trump in Washington and discussed the ongoing campaign to defeat Hamas i

GAZA CITY: Gaza’s civil defense agency on Wednesday said that 20 people, including at least six children, were killed in two Israeli air strikes overnight in the Palestinian territory.
Agency spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP the first hit a tent housing displaced people in Khan Yunis in the south shortly after midnight local time (2100 GMT Tuesday) and the second struck a camp in the north soon afterwards.
The Israeli military said it was looking into the report when contacted by AFP.
The bombings came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met US President Donald Trump in Washington and discussed the ongoing campaign to defeat Hamas in Gaza.
Afterwards, he restated Israel’s aims to secure the release of all hostages taken during the Palestinian militants’ October 7, 2023 attack, and “the elimination” of its “military and governing capabilities.”
Gaza’s civil defense agency said 29 people were killed in Israeli strikes across Gaza on Tuesday, with victims also including people displaced by 21 months of conflict.
Bassal said the first strike on Wednesday killed 10 members of the same family sheltering in the Al-Mawasi area of Khan Yunis while the second, on the Al-Shati camp near Gaza City, also left more than 30 wounded.
The victims were from two families, he added.
“The explosion was massive, like an earthquake,” said Zuhair Judeh, 40, who saw the Al-Shati air strike.
“It destroyed the house and several nearby homes. The bodies and remains of the martyrs were scattered,” he added, calling it “a horrific massacre.”
Several people remained missing, presumed trapped under the rubble, he said.
Abeer Al-Sharbasi, 36, described the air strike as “terrifying” and said it happened as she and her family were asleep in a nearby tent.
“You can’t predict when or why they’ll bomb you. We have nothing left but to surrender ourselves to God.”
Due to restrictions imposed on media in the Gaza Strip and difficulties accessing the area, AFP is unable to independently verify the death tolls and details shared by the parties involved.
Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Of 251 hostages seized during attack, 49 are still held in Gaza, including 27 the Israeli military says are dead.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed at least 57,575 people in Gaza, also mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The UN considers the figures reliable.


Greek ship sinks off Yemen after Houthi attack, crew being rescued, sources say

Updated 35 min 50 sec ago
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Greek ship sinks off Yemen after Houthi attack, crew being rescued, sources say

  • Some of the crew were in lifejackets in the water and at least five people have been rescued so far

ATHENS: The Liberia-flagged, Greek-operated bulk carrier Eternity C has sunk after a Houthi attack off Yemen, four maritime security sources told Reuters on Wednesday, and efforts to rescue the crew were under way.
Some of the crew were in lifejackets in the water and at least five people have been rescued so far, two of the sources said.


Jailed PKK leader Ocalan says armed struggle with Turkiye over

Updated 09 July 2025
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Jailed PKK leader Ocalan says armed struggle with Turkiye over

  • Ocalan urged Turkiye’s parliament to set up a commission to oversee disarmament and manage a broader peace process

Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), appeared in a rare online video on Wednesday to say the group’s armed struggle against Turkiye has ended, and he called for a full shift to democratic politics.

In the recording, dated June and released by Firat News Agency, which is close to the PKK, Ocalan urged Turkiye’s parliament to set up a commission to oversee disarmament and manage a broader peace process.

The PKK, which has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state for 40 years and is labelled a terrorist organization by Turkiye, the United States and the EU, decided in May to disband after an initial written appeal from Ocalan in February.

“The phase of armed struggle has ended. This is not a loss, but a historic gain,” he said in the video, the first time since he was jailed in 1999 that either footage of him or a recording of his voice has been released.

“The armed struggle stage must now be voluntarily replaced by a phase of democratic politics and law.”

Ocalan, seated in a beige polo shirt with a glass of water on the table in front of him, appeared to read from a transcript in the seven-minute video. He was surrounded by six other jailed PKK members all looking straight at the camera.

He said the PKK had ended its separatist agenda.

“The main objective has been achieved – existence has been acknowledged,” he said. “What remains would be excessive repetition and a dead end.”

Ocalan added that Turkiye’s pro-Kurdish DEM Party, the third largest in parliament in Ankara, should work alongside other political parties.


South Sudan says US deportees under government care

Updated 09 July 2025
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South Sudan says US deportees under government care

  • The South Sudanese foreign ministry released a statement on the migrants saying: “They are currently in Juba under the care of the relevant authorities, who are screening them and ensuring their safety and well-being”

JUBA: War-torn South Sudan has said it is looking after a group of eight criminal migrants controversially deported from the United States.
Only one of them is from South Sudan. The administration of US President Donald Trump is trying to move unwanted migrants to third countries as some nations refuse to accept returnees.
The rest comprise two people from Myanmar, two from Cuba, and one each from Vietnam, Laos and Mexico.
The decision has been fought in American courts.
“They are currently in Juba under the care of the relevant authorities, who are screening them and ensuring their safety and well-being,” the South Sudanese foreign ministry statement said late Tuesday.
It did not give details, but said the “careful and well-studied decision” was part of “ongoing bilateral engagement.”
“South Sudan responded positively to a request from the US authorities as a gesture of goodwill, humanitarian cooperation, and commitment to mutual interests,” it added.
United Nations experts, appointed by the UN Human Rights Council but who do not speak on behalf of the UN, have criticized the move.
“International law is clear that no one shall be sent anywhere where there are substantial grounds for believing that the person would be in danger of being subjected to ... torture, enforced disappearance or arbitrary deprivation of life,” 11 independent UN rights experts said in a statement.
The deportees left the United States for South Sudan in May but their flight ended up in Djibouti when a US district court imposed a stay on third-country deportations. That ruling was overturned by the Supreme Court earlier this month.
The group arrived in South Sudan on June 5 with an official, speaking on condition of anonymity, saying they had been returned by US Marines.
Foreign ministry spokesperson Apuk Ayuel Mayen said Juba maintains a strong commitment to its people, including “its nationals returning under any circumstances” and “persons with recognized links to South Sudan.”
Simmering rivalry between South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and his vice president Riek Machar boiled over into open hostilities in March.
The tensions have raised fears of a return to full-scale war in the world’s youngest country, where a civil war killed some 400,000 people in 2013-2018.