Will Sudan crisis trigger a fresh wave of migrants and refugees out of Africa?

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Updated 24 May 2023
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Will Sudan crisis trigger a fresh wave of migrants and refugees out of Africa?

  • Majority of Sudan’s displaced people are fleeing internally or to neighboring African countries
  • Experts say country is unlikely to see displacement on the scale of Ukraine, Libya or Syria

JUBA, South Sudan: Thousands of civilians in towns and villages across Sudan have been forced to flee in recent weeks to escape the worsening conflict in the country, which has entered its second bloody month, leading to fears of a new global refugee crisis.

Initial clashes between former allies the Sudanese Armed Forces and paramilitary group the Rapid Support Forces have escalated into heavy combat, displacing hundreds of thousands of people from their homes.

Hospitals have been overwhelmed by the numbers of wounded, and disruptions to basic utilities and shortages of medical supplies have forced medical staff to turn away even the critically ill.

Meanwhile, shortages of food, fuel, electricity and clean water, coupled with economic collapse and the breakdown of law and order, have forced entire communities to pack up and leave in search of security and relief.




Passengers fleeing war-torn Sudan cross into Egypt through the Argeen Land Port on May 12, 2023. (AFP)

In the first four weeks of the crisis, around 200,000 people fled Sudan while another 700,000 were displaced inside the country. As many as 860,000 refugees and returnees are expected by the UN refugee agency UNHCR to flee by October, raising fears among European policymakers of a new influx of migrants over the coming months..

Europe was forced to confront the issue of mass migration in 2015, when hundreds of thousands of people fleeing war, poverty and persecution in Africa, the Middle East and Asia began arriving from across the Mediterranean.

More recently, the continent has absorbed millions of Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion, which has placed additional strain on a continent already grappling with high energy prices as a result of gas shortages.

However, few experts predict Europe will see anything close to the same number of migrants as a result of the crisis in Sudan. Instead, most expect the majority to be displaced internally or settle in neighboring African states.

“Some of the refugees will try to go to Europe, but I don’t see that there will be mass migration going to Europe right now,” Namira Negm, director of the African Migration Observatory in Morocco, told Arab News.

“It will increase but it will not be mass migration. Migration to neighboring countries needs to be addressed first.”

INNUMBERS

  • 116,995 First-time asylum seekers from Sudan in EU+ area during 2015 peak.
  • 860,000+ Refugees and returnees expected to flee Sudan by Oct. (UNHCR).
  • $445m Funding required to support the displaced until Oct. 2023 (UNHCR).

Nevertheless, many in Europe remain fearful that any fresh influx will place additional strains on the resources of host nations, and trigger a surge in anti-immigrant sentiments and support for right-wing populist movements.

In response to previous waves of migration several European nations adopted draconian immigration policies, making it more difficult for new arrivals to obtain asylum and the right to remain. Those who still try to reach Europe face dangerous journeys, including sea voyages in often flimsy and overloaded vessels.

“Reaching Europe would require navigating treacherous and expensive migration routes, often involving perilous sea crossings and facing the risk of exploitation and abuse by human traffickers,” Franck Duvell, a senior researcher at Universitat Osnabruck in Germany, told Arab News.

“Numbers might go up a little, but I don’t see these networks and routes now. Traveling to western Libya has become dangerous and is getting more and more difficult, and therefore (an) increasing number of people actually continue their journey to Tunisia.

“I don’t see Sudanese traveling all the way to Tunisia. It’s simply too far, it’s too expensive, it’s too dangerous … Even if numbers are increasing, the total numbers will still be relatively small.”

Franck Duvell On Migrants Arriving In Europe
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Migrant numbers were already on the rise prior to the start of the conflict last month. More than 36,000 people arrived from Sudan in Europe’s Mediterranean region between January and March, nearly twice the number compared with the same period in 2022, according to the latest UNHCR figures.

Sudan has been caught in a cycle of violent coups and countercoups for years. The latest, in October 2021, resulted in a transitional, civilian-led government being overthrown by a military junta led by the two factions now fighting each other.

Since the start of a shaky political transition in 2019, after long-time autocratic ruler Omar Al-Bashir was ousted, Sudan has been plagued by political and economic instability, prompting many citizens to seek sanctuary outside the country.

According to the EU’s European Asylum Support Office, Sudanese nationals represented the fifth-largest group of applicants for international protection in the EU in 2020, with more than 34,000 new applications. This was a significant increase on the previous year, when there were about 18,000 new applications.

An economic crisis, including high inflation, devaluation of the national currency and shortages of basic goods, had already caused poverty and unemployment to increase in Sudan prior to the latest conflict, which began on April 15.

And it is not only the Sudanese people themselves who face displacement. Before the fighting began, Sudan hosted more than a million refugees, 300,000 of them in the capital Khartoum, who had fled South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Many of them are now returning home or looking for refuge elsewhere in the region or further afield.




Refugees from Sudan who crossed into Ethiopia rest in Metema, on May 5, 2023. (AFP)

If the crisis in Sudan becomes long drawn out, akin to the Syrian civil war, the possibility of large number of Sudanese refugees seeking safety in Europe cannot be ruled out.

“A protracted conflict could create unwanted uncertainties,” Thirsa de Vries, a Sudan expert at the Dutch peace organization PAX, told Arab News.

“This is why it is also important that the international community (engages with) the different actors that might be involved, or works with neighboring countries to close corridors for weapons smuggling.”

Thirsa De Vries On A Peace Process In Sudan
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The possibility of a large number of Sudanese refugees attempting to reach Europe also highlights the importance of cooperation between nations in managing migration flows.

Abdullahi Hassan, a researcher at human rights organization Amnesty International who specializes in Sudan, stressed the importance of ensuring the security and stability of host and origin countries.

“With adequate planning and resources, it is possible to provide safe and orderly routes for those seeking refuge,” he told Arab News.

He said the response to the crisis in Sudan should not solely focus on migration and added: “It must instead prioritize the protection of civilians and access to humanitarian aid.

“The EU and its member states should use their influence, both in the region and in Sudan, to ensure that they are directly engaging with the parties to the conflict to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, encourage immediate and unrestricted access for humanitarian actors, and pressure the Sudanese authorities to allow safe exit passages for people trying to flee the conflict.”

As the fighting continues to rage, the warring Sudanese factions have held talks in Saudi Arabia to discuss a ceasefire but made it clear they would not negotiate an end to the conflict.

Despite the challenges posed by the violence, humanitarian organizations are working to provide aid to those affected by the Sudan crisis. But attacks on aid workers and the looting of relief supplies have made it increasingly difficult for agencies to deliver help to needy communities, which could in turn affect the response of donor countries.




A view shows black smoke and fire at Omdurman market in Omdurman, Sudan, May 17, 2023. (Screengrab/Reuters)

Some organizations “have evacuated international staff, particularly those that were in the most affected areas,” UNHCR spokesperson Faith Kasina, told Arab News, who highlighted the risks and limitations of aid provision during armed conflicts.

The UN’s Children’s Fund, UNICEF, reported on May 5 that at least 190 children have been killed and 1,700 injured since the fighting began in Sudan. While a tentative ceasefire allowed foreign nations to evacuate their citizens from the country in the past few weeks, Sudanese nationals continue to endure great hardships.

Several media outlets, including the BBC, the Washington Post and Al-Jazeera, have interviewed Sudanese citizens who said their passports were locked inside foreign embassies, leaving them trapped in their own country.

Hassan, the Amnesty International researcher, said foreign nations must provide safe evacuation procedures, and that the warring factions must “stop attacking humanitarian aid workers.”

But he added that instances of attacks on workers and the looting of aid supplies “should not be an excuse to withdraw funding.”

“The response to the crisis in Sudan is completely different from the response, for example, Ukraine received when the conflict started in that country,” said Hassan.

“European countries should, nevertheless, provide safe and regular pathways to Europe for those seeking international protection … It is the responsibility of the EU and member states to ensure that such pathways are made available.”

However, public sentiment in Europe appears to be overwhelmingly hostile to refugees. Both Italy and the UK have faced recent criticism for their strict immigration policies, which aid agencies warn could drive more refugees into the arms of smuggling gangs.

In mid-April, Italy passed legislation to curb undocumented migration, including tougher sentences for those convicted of human trafficking and terminating residency permits for migrants who face humanitarian risks.

This drew criticism from search-and-rescue organizations, who warned it would lead to more deaths at sea in the Mediterranean as migrants seek illegal routes to Europe.

The British government has been accused of racial discrimination in its refugee policy. Immigration experts point out that although hundreds of thousands of visas were provided for Ukrainian refugees, there is no plan, or safe route, to help those fleeing violence in Sudan.

Ultimately, the best way to avoid migrant crises is by helping ensure that all countries in Africa are able to offer their citizens a decent quality of life.

Namira Negm On Migration
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“The root cause is lack of development; people lose hope in their country and end up migrating to other countries,” African Migration Observatory Director Negm said regarding the importance of stability in Africa.

“If they have a good life in their own home countries, they will not think of going somewhere else.”

 


Israeli navy strikes Yemen’s port of Hodeidah, army radio says

Updated 16 sec ago
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Israeli navy strikes Yemen’s port of Hodeidah, army radio says

DUBAI: The Israeli navy carried out attacks on Yemen’s Red Sea port of Hodeidah, Israeli army radio said on Tuesday, in an ongoing campaign that usually involves airstrikes.
Houthi-run Al Masirah TV said Israel targeted the docks of Al Hodeidah port with two strikes.
There were no immediate reports of casualties.
The strikes come after the Israeli military on Monday urged the evacuation of the Houthi-controlled ports of Ras Isa, Hodeidah, and Salif.
Since the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023, the Iran-aligned Houthis have fired at Israel and at shipping in the Red Sea in what it says are acts of solidarity with the Palestinians.
Most of the dozens of missiles and drones fired toward Israel have been intercepted or fallen short. Israel has carried out a series of retaliatory strikes.
Israel has severely weakened other allies of Iran in the region — Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
The Tehran-backed Houthis and pro-Iranian armed groups in Iraq are still standing. 


Trump must tell Netanyahu ‘enough is enough’: ex-Israeli PM

Updated 10 June 2025
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Trump must tell Netanyahu ‘enough is enough’: ex-Israeli PM

  • US President Donald Trump should tell Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu “enough is enough,” a former Israeli prime minister told AFP,

PARIS: US President Donald Trump should tell Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu “enough is enough,” a former Israeli prime minister told AFP, denouncing the continuation of the war in Gaza as a “crime” and insisting a two-state solution is the only way to end the conflict.
Ehud Olmert, prime minister between 2006-2009, said in an interview in Paris that the United States has more influence on the Israeli government “than all the other powers put together” and that Trump can “make a difference.”
He said Netanyahu “failed completely” as a leader by not preventing the October 7, 2023 attack by Palestinian militant group Hamas that sparked the war.
He said while the international community accepted Israel’s right to self-defense after October 7, this changed when Netanyahu spurned chances to end the war in March and instead ramped up operations.
Netanyahu “has his personal interests which are prioritized over what may be the national interests,” Olmert charged.
Analysts say Netanyahu fears that if he halts the war, hard-line members of his coalition will walk out, collapsing the government and forcing elections he could lose.
“If there is a war which is not going to save hostages, which cannot really eradicate more of what they did already against Hamas and if, as a result of this, soldiers are getting killed, hostages maybe get killed and innocent Palestinians are killed, then to my mind this is a crime,” said Olmert.
“And this is something that should be condemned and not accepted,” he said.
Trump should summon Netanyahu to the White House Oval Office and facing cameras, tell the Israeli leader: “’Bibi: enough is enough’,” Olmert said, using the premier’s nickname.
“This is it. I hope he (Trump) will do it. There is nothing that cannot happen with Trump. I don’t know if this will happen. We have to hope and we have to encourage him,” said Olmert.
Despite occasional expressions of concern about the situation in Gaza, the US remains Israel’s key ally, using its veto at the UN Security Council and approving billions of dollars in arms sales.


Hamas’s unprecedented attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official figures.
Militants abducted 251 hostages, 54 of whom remain in Gaza, including 32 the Israeli military says are dead.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed 54,880 people, mostly civilians, according to the Gaza health ministry, figures the United Nations deems reliable.
Along with former Palestinian foreign minister Nasser Al-Qidwa, Olmert is promoting a plan to end decades of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians to create a Palestinian state alongside a secure Israel.
Both sides would swap 4.4 percent of each other’s land to the other, according to the plan, with Israel receiving some West Bank territory occupied by Israeli settlers and a future Palestinian state territory that is currently part of Israel.
Ahead of a meeting this month in New York co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia on steps toward recognizing a Palestinian state, Olmert said that such a plan is “practical, is doable, is relevant, is valid and is real.”
Olmert spent over a year in prison from 2016-2017 after being convicted in corruption scandals that ended his political career and efforts to forge peace.
A longtime political rival of Netanyahu even though they both emerged from the same Likud right-wing party, he also faces an uphill struggle to convince Israeli society where support for a Palestinian state, let alone land swaps, is at a low ebb after October 7.
“It requires a leadership on both sides,” said Olmert. “We are trying to raise international awareness and the awareness of our own societies that this is not something lost but offers a future of hope.”
Al-Qidwa, who is due to promote the plan alongside Olmert at a conference organized by the Jean-Jaures Foundation think tank in Paris on Tuesday, told AFP the blueprint was the “only game in town and the only doable solution.”
But he said societies in Israel and the Palestinian territories still had to be convinced, partly due to the continuation of the war.
“The moment the war comes to an end we will see a different kind of thinking. We have to go forward with acceptance of the co-existence of the two sides.”
But he added there could be no hope of “serious progress with the current Israeli government and current Palestinian leadership” under the aging president Mahmud Abbas, in office now for two decades.
“You have to get rid of both. And that is going to happen,” he said, labelling the Palestinian leadership as “corrupt and inept.”


UN says most flour delivered in Gaza looted or taken by starving people

Updated 10 June 2025
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UN says most flour delivered in Gaza looted or taken by starving people

  • Experts warn Gaza is at risk of famine, with the rate of young children suffering acute malnutrition nearly tripling
  • According to World Food Programme guidelines, 4,600 metric tons of flour would provide roughly eight days’ worth of bread for Gaza’s 2 million residents, based on a standard daily ration of 300 grams per person

UNITED NATIONS: The United Nations said on Monday that it has only been able to bring minimal flour into Gaza since Israel lifted an aid blockade three weeks ago and that has mostly been looted by armed gangs or taken by starving Palestinians.
The organization has transported 4,600 metric tons of wheat flour into Gaza via the Kerem Shalom crossing, the only entry point Israel allows it to use, Deputy UN spokesperson Fahan Haq told reporters.
Haq said aid groups in Gaza estimate that between 8,000 and 10,000 metric tons of wheat flour were needed to give each family in Gaza a bag of flour and “ease the pressure on markets and reduce desperation.”

HIGHLIGHTS

• US-backed GHF says has given out total 11.4 million meals

• UN calls for more supplies to be let into Gaza

• Gazans at risk of famine

“Most of it was taken by desperate, starving people before the supplies reached their destinations. In some cases, the supplies were looted by armed gangs,” Haq said.
According to World Food Programme guidelines, 4,600 metric tons of flour would provide roughly eight days’ worth of bread for Gaza’s 2 million residents, based on a standard daily ration of 300 grams per person.
Haq called for Israel to let in far more aid via multiple crossings and routes.
The UN has mostly delivered flour along with limited medical and nutrition items since Israel lifted the 11-week blockade in mid-May. Experts warn Gaza is at risk of famine, with the rate of young children suffering acute malnutrition nearly tripling.
Israel and the United States want the UN to work through the controversial new Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, but the UN has refused, questioning its neutrality and accusing the distribution model of militarizing aid and forcing displacement.
Israel and the United States have accused Hamas of stealing aid from the UN-led operations, which the militants deny.
The GHF uses private US security and logistics firms to operate. It began operations in Gaza on May 26 and said on Monday so far it has given out 11.4 million meals.
Israel makes the UN offload aid on the Palestinian side of the Kerem Shalom crossing, where it then has to be picked by the UN and aid groups already in Gaza. The UN has accused Israel of regularly denying access requests.

 


Trump says Iran is involved in Gaza hostage negotiations

Updated 10 June 2025
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Trump says Iran is involved in Gaza hostage negotiations

  • Under the proposal 28 Israeli hostages — alive and dead — would be released in the first week, in exchange for the release of 1,236 Palestinian prisoners and the remains of 180 dead Palestinians
  • The United States and Iran are also separately trying to negotiate a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said on Monday Iran is involved in negotiations aimed at arranging a ceasefire-for-hostages deal between Israel and Hamas.
“Gaza right now is in the midst of a massive negotiation between us and Hamas and Israel, and Iran actually is involved, and we’ll see what’s going to happen with Gaza. We want to get the hostages back,” Trump told reporters during an event in the White House State Dining Room.
Trump did not elaborate and the White House did not immediately respond to a request for details of Iran’s involvement. Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The United States has proposed a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Israel said it would abide by the terms but Hamas thus far has rejected the plan.
Under the proposal 28 Israeli hostages — alive and dead — would be released in the first week, in exchange for the release of 1,236 Palestinian prisoners and the remains of 180 dead Palestinians.
The United States and Iran are also separately trying to negotiate a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program.
 

 


Gaza’s Al-Amal hospital ‘virtually out of service’: WHO

Updated 10 June 2025
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Gaza’s Al-Amal hospital ‘virtually out of service’: WHO

  • The WHO said June 5 that Al-Nasser and Al-Amal hospitals were unable to fully treat the wounded that continue to pour in because of serious shortages of medicines and medical supplies after two months of total blockade

GENEVA: The Al-Amal Hospital in Gaza, one of the few still operating in the Palestinian territory, is now “virtually out of service” due to intense military activity, the head of the WHO said Monday.
“Access to the hospital is obstructed, preventing new patients from reaching care, and leading to more preventable deaths,” the World Health Organization’s director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus posted on X.
Tedros said two emergency medical teams — one local, the other international — “are still doing their best to serve the remaining patients with the limited medical supplies left on the premises.”
“With the closure of Al-Amal, Nasser Medical Complex is now the only remaining hospital with an intensive care unit in Khan Younis,” he said.
The WHO said June 5 that Al-Nasser and Al-Amal hospitals were unable to fully treat the wounded that continue to pour in because of serious shortages of medicines and medical supplies after two months of total blockade.
Israeli authorities have recently allowed in some humanitarian aid, but way less than what is needed.
Nearly 20 months of relentless war, triggered by Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel, has created one of the most serious humanitarian crises in the world, with civilians exhausted by bombardments, forced displacement and hunger.