With Russia revolt over, mercenaries’ future and direction of Ukraine war remain uncertain

Members of the Wagner group prepare to pull out from the headquarters of the Russian Southern Military District to return to their base in Rostov-on-Don late on June 24, 2023. (AFP)
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Updated 26 June 2023
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With Russia revolt over, mercenaries’ future and direction of Ukraine war remain uncertain

  • Though short-lived, Prigozhin's rebellion resulted in some of the best forces fighting for Russia being pulled from the Ukraine battlefield
  • “Putin is much diminished and the Russian military, and this is significant as far as Ukraine is concerned,” says UK's former military chief

Russian government troops withdrew from the streets of Moscow on Sunday and the rebellious mercenary soldiers who had occupied other cities were gone, but the short-lived revolt has weakened President Vladimir Putin just as his forces are facing a fierce counteroffensive in Ukraine.

The aborted march on the capital by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner troops, some of the most effective fighters in Ukraine, also left their fate uncertain.
Under terms of the agreement that ended the crisis, Prigozhin will go into exile in Belarus but will not face prosecution. Neither Putin nor Prigozhin has been heard from since the deal, brokered by Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, was announced Saturday night.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the weekend’s events as “extraordinary,” recalling that 16 months ago Putin appeared poised to seize the capital of Ukraine and now he has had to defend Moscow from forces led by his onetime protege.
“I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian façade,” Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
“It is too soon to tell exactly where they go and when they get there, but certainly we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead.”
It was not yet clear what the fissures opened by the 24-hour rebellion would mean for the war in Ukraine. But it resulted in some of the best forces fighting for Russia being pulled from the battlefield: Prigozhin’s own Wagner troops, who had shown their effectiveness in scoring the Kremlin’s only land victory in months, in Bakhmut, and Chechen soldiers sent to stop them on the approach to Moscow.
The Wagner forces’ largely unopposed, rapid advance also exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s security and military forces.

“I honestly think that Wagner probably did more damage to Russian aerospace forces in the past day than the Ukrainian offensive has done in the past three weeks,” Michael Kofman, director of Russia Studies at the CAN research group, said in a podcast.
The Wagner forces were reported to have downed several helicopters and a military communications plane. The Defense Ministry has not commented.
Ukrainians hoped the Russian infighting could create opportunities for their army, which is in the early stages of a counteroffensive to take back territory seized by Russian forces.
“Putin is much diminished and the Russian military, and this is significant as far as Ukraine is concerned,” said Lord Richard Dannatt, former chief of the general staff of the British armed forces. “... Prigozhin has left the stage to go to Belarus, but is that the end of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group?”
Under terms of the agreement that stopped Prigozhin’s advance, Wagner troops who didn’t back the revolt will be offered contracts directly with the Russian military, putting them under the control of the military brass that Prigozhin was trying to oust. A possible motivation for Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Defense Ministry’s demand, which Putin backed, that private companies sign contracts with it by July 1. Prigozhin had refused to do it.
“What we don’t know, but will discover in the next hours and days is, how many of his fighters have gone with him, because if he has gone to Belarus and kept an effective fighting force around him, then he ... presents a threat again” to Ukraine, Dannatt said.
Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky said he told US President Joe Biden in a phone call on Sunday that the aborted rebellion in Russia had “exposed the weakness of Putin’s regime.”
In their lightning advance, Prigozhin’s forces on Saturday took control of two military hubs in southern Russia and got within 200 kilometers (120 miles) from Moscow before retreating.
People in Rostov-on-Don cheered Wagner troops as they departed late Saturday, a scene that played into Putin’s fear of a popular uprising. Some ran to shake hands with Prigozhin as he drove away in an SUV.
Yet the rebellion fizzled quickly, in part because Prigozhin did not have the backing he expected from Russian security services. In fact, the Federal Security Services immediately called for his arrest.
“Clearly, Prigozhin lost his nerve,” retired US Gen. David Petraeus, a former CIA director, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
“This rebellion, although it had some applause along the way, didn’t appear to be generating the kind of support that he had hoped it would.”

 

Rostov appeared calm Sunday morning, with only tank tracks on the roads as a reminder of the Wagner fighters.
“It all ended perfectly well, thank God. With minimal casualties, I think. Good job,” said one of the residents, who agreed only to provide his first name, Sergei. He said the Wagner soldiers used to be heroes to him, but not now.
In the Lipetsk region, which sits on the road to Moscow, residents appeared unfazed by the turmoil.
“They did not disrupt anything. They stood calmly on the pavement and did not approach or talk to anyone,” Milena Gorbunova told the AP.
As Wagner forces moved north toward Moscow, Russian troops armed with machine guns set up checkpoints on the outskirts. By Sunday afternoon, the troops had withdrawn and traffic had returned to normal, although Red Square remained closed to visitors. On highways leading to Moscow, crews repaired roads ripped up just hours earlier in panic.
Anchors on state-controlled television stations cast the deal ending the crisis as a show of Putin’s wisdom and aired footage of Wagner troops retreating from Rostov-on-Don to the relief of local residents who feared a bloody battle for control of the city. People there who were interviewed by Channel 1 praised Putin’s handling of the crisis.
But the revolt and the deal that ended it severely dented Putin’s reputation as a leader willing to ruthlessly punish anyone who challenges his authority.
Prigozhin had demanded the ouster of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom Prigozhin has long criticized in withering terms for how he has conducted the war in Ukraine.
The US had intelligence that Prigozhin had been building up his forces near the border with Russia for some time. That conflicts with Prigozhin’s claim that his rebellion was a response to an attack on his field camps in Ukraine on Friday by the Russian military that he said killed a large number of his men. The Defense Ministry denied attacking the camps.
Rep. Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, said the march on Moscow appeared to have been planned in advance.
“Now, being a military guy, he understands the logistics and really the assistance that he’s going to need to do that,” including from some Russians on the border with Ukraine who supported him, Turner said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
“This is something that would have had to have been planned for a significant amount of time to be executed in the manner in which it was,” he said.
 


US envoy reassures Panamanians about contentious military deal

Updated 6 sec ago
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US envoy reassures Panamanians about contentious military deal

  • The agreement allows US military personnel to deploy to Panamanian-controlled bases along the canal

PANAMA:The new US ambassador to Panama on Thursday reassured its citizens that an agreement signed by the two countries last month does not permit the return of American military bases.
US President Donald Trump's repeated threats to "take back" control of the Panama Canal from what he calls excessive Chinese influence has caused alarm in the Central American nation.
The agreement signed by Trump's defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, and President Jose Raul Mulino's administration allows US military personnel to deploy to Panamanian-controlled bases along the canal for training, exercises and "other activities."
"Nowhere" does the agreement "talk about opening military bases," Trump's ambassador, Kevin Cabrera, told a news conference.
This agreement "will strengthen our cooperation against drug trafficking and protect the canal," which the United States built and controlled until 1999, he added.
The recent deal has sparked protests from Panamanians who oppose any perceived infringement of their country's sovereignty after a 1989 US invasion to depose then-leader General Manuel Noriega.
Cabrera said that "false" information was being spread about the agreement "for political reasons."
Mulino on Thursday ruled out canceling the pact, which he said did not allow "any form" of US military base in his country.
"There is no cession of territory here," he told a news conference.


Ransomware group Lockbit appears to have been hacked, analysts say

Updated 4 min 52 sec ago
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Ransomware group Lockbit appears to have been hacked, analysts say

  • Lockbit is one of the world’s most prolific cyber extortion gangs and it has survived past disruptions

 

WASHINGTON: The ransom-seeking cybercriminals behind the extortion group Lockbit appear to have suffered a breach of their own, according to a rogue post to one of the group’s websites and security analysts who follow the gang.
On Wednesday one of Lockbit’s darkweb sites was replaced with a message saying, “Don’t do crime CRIME IS BAD xoxo from Prague” and a link to an apparent cache of leaked data.
Reuters could not immediately verify the data, which appeared to capture chats between the hackers and their victims, among other things. But others who sifted through the material told Reuters it appeared authentic.
“It’s legit,” said Jon DiMaggio, the chief security strategist with the cybersecurity company Analyst1.
Christiaan Beek, senior director of threat analytics at cybersecurity firm Rapid7, agreed the leak “looks really authentic.” He said he was struck by how it showed Lockbit’s hackers hustling even for modest payouts from small businesses.
“They attack everyone,” he said.
Reuters could not immediately reach Lockbit or establish who had apparently leaked their data. Some darkweb sites associated with Lockbit appeared to be inoperative on Thursday, displaying a note saying they would be “working soon.”
Lockbit is one of the world’s most prolific cyber extortion gangs — diMaggio once called it “the Walmart of ransomware groups” — and it has survived past disruptions. Last year British and US officials worked with a coalition of international law enforcement agencies to seize some of the gang’s infrastructure. A few days later, the group defiantly announced it was back online, saying, “I cannot be stopped.”
Behind the bravado, diMaggio said this week’s hack was an embarrassment.
“I think it will hurt them and slow them down,” he said.


US military to ‘immediately’ start removing 1,000 trans troops

Updated 11 min 48 sec ago
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US military to ‘immediately’ start removing 1,000 trans troops

WASHINGTON: The US military will “immediately” start the process of removing some 1,000 transgender troops and will force out those who do not leave voluntarily by early June, the Pentagon said on Thursday.
President Donald Trump issued an executive order in January banning transgender military service, and the US Supreme Court ruled this week that the ban could take effect while litigation challenging it plays out.
“The Military Departments will immediately begin processing for separation service members who previously self-identified for voluntary separation prior to March 26, 2025,” a memo from Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said.
Approximately 1,000 troops who identified as having gender dysphoria diagnoses fall into that category, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement.
There were a total of 4,240 currently serving troops with such diagnoses as of late last year, according to a senior defense official, and the memo said those who do not voluntarily leave by June 6 for active-duty troops and the following day for reserves will be removed.
“On conclusion of the self-identification eligibility window, the Military Departments will initiate involuntary separation processes,” the memo said.
In his January 27 executive order, Trump stated that “expressing a false ‘gender identity’ divergent from an individual’s sex cannot satisfy the rigorous standards necessary for military service.”
The Pentagon followed that up with a memo issued in late February stating that it would remove transgender troops from the military unless they obtain a waiver on a case-by-case basis, as well as prevent transgender people from joining.
Transgender Americans have faced a roller coaster of changing policies on military service in recent years, with Democratic administrations seeking to permit them to serve openly, while Trump has sought to keep them out of the ranks.


Trump calls for ‘unconditional’ 30-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire

Updated 09 May 2025
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Trump calls for ‘unconditional’ 30-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump called Thursday for a month-long unconditional ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with any breaches punishable by sanctions.
“Talks with Russia/Ukraine continue. The US calls for, ideally, a 30-day unconditional ceasefire,” Trump said on his Truth Social network shortly after speaking to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“If the ceasefire is not respected, the US and its partners will impose further sanctions.”
Trump said that “both countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations” to halt the conflict that started when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The US president said he wanted any ceasefire to then build to a “lasting peace.”
“It can all be done very quickly, and I will be available on a moment’s notice if my services are needed.”
Trump opened talks with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in February in a bid to end the war that he had previously pledged to end within 24 hours of starting his second term.
But he has shown growing impatience, first with Zelensky and more recently with Putin as the fighting has continued.
Trump and other top US officials have stepped up warnings in recent weeks that Washington is prepared to walk away from its role as a broker if there is no progress soon.
Zelensky said on social media that he had told Trump Thursday that Ukraine was ready for talks on the war with Russia “in any format” but insisted that there first had to be a full ceasefire.


US VP Vance says India-Pakistan conflict ‘fundamentally none of our business’

Updated 09 May 2025
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US VP Vance says India-Pakistan conflict ‘fundamentally none of our business’

WASHINGTON: US Vice President JD Vance on Thursday said Washington wanted to see a “de-escalation” in a worsening conflict between India and Pakistan, but that it was “fundamentally none of our business.”
“What we can do is try to encourage these folks to de-escalate a little bit, but we’re not going to get involved in the middle of a war that’s fundamentally none of our business and has nothing to do with America’s ability to control it,” said Vance, who has been a proponent of US disengagement from international conflicts, in an interview with Fox News.