RIYADH: Banks in Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE are expected to maintain stability in 2025, supported by strong capital buffers, favorable economic conditions, and supportive government policies, according to a new analysis. 

In Kuwait, S&P Global forecasts improved asset quality, driven by a stronger economy and lower interest rates. 

The banking sector is well-positioned to deal with potential geopolitical stress in the region, with stronger lending growth offsetting the negative impact of lower interest rates on profitability, it added.  

S&P Global’s analysis echoes the views shared by Fitch Ratings in November 2024, which stated that the standalone credit profiles of Islamic banks in Kuwait are expected to remain stable in 2025, supported by favorable operating conditions. 

“After an estimated 2.3 percent contraction in 2024, we expect Kuwait’s GDP growth will rebound to 3 percent in 2025 as OPEC+ oil production restrictions are gradually eased, and project implementation and reform momentum improves,” said Puneet Tuli, S&P Global Ratings credit analyst.   

The report added that accelerated reforms following last year’s political changes could improve the pace of reform and growth prospects for the economy, “which in turn would support higher lending growth for the banking system.”  

According to the report, the credit losses in the Kuwaiti banking sector are approaching cyclical lows. 

S&P Global added that banks are likely to resort to write-offs to limit the rise in the nonperforming loan ratio, supported by strong provisioning buffers. 

The analysis further noted that banks in Kuwait operate with robust capital buffers and typically retain 50 percent or more of their profits, which supports their capitalization. 

The US-based agency also highlighted that Kuwaiti banks’ funding structures benefit from a solid core customer deposit base and a net external asset position. 

“Deposits from government and public institutions have experienced some volatility in the past, as these entities seek to diversify their deposits among local and foreign banks. However, we believe that government support to systemically important banks will be forthcoming if needed,” said S&P Global.  

It added: “Private sector deposits from corporations and households have been stable and dominate Kuwaiti banks’ funding base.”   

Qatar’s outlook 

In Qatar, S&P Global expects continued strong performance for banks in 2025, driven by strong capitalization and ample liquidity. The rise in liquefied natural gas production, along with its impact on the non-hydrocarbon economy, is expected to support credit growth in the next two to three years. 

The report added that local funding sources will play an increasing role in supporting credit growth among Qatari banks, driven by slower public sector deleveraging. 

S&P Global also noted that the Qatari government’s strong support for its banking sector is expected to mitigate the risk of external debt outflows in the event of escalating geopolitical risks. 

“Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are high but we currently do not expect a full-scale regional conflict, and we anticipate macroeconomic conditions in Qatar will remain broadly stable,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Juili Pargaonkar.  

Forecast for the UAE

In the UAE, S&P Global forecasts improved asset quality metrics and lower credit losses in 2025, driven by a robust domestic economy.  

The agency expects banks in the emirates to maintain strong capital buffers, robust funding profiles, and continued government support in 2025, which will underpin their resilience. 

The analysis also noted that banks in the UAE have experienced a significant increase in deposits over the past three years, which will help sustain their strong growth momentum in 2025. 

“Deposit growth has improved in recent years as private corporations and retail depositors prioritized saving over spending, and higher interest rates provided better yields on deposits,” said S&P Global.   

It added: “We expect strong deposit growth to continue through 2025, given the non-oil economy remains supportive, leading to stronger cash flow generation from corporations.” 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s domestic tourism is fueling a significant expansion in the Kingdom’s travel sector, with domestic bookings now making up over 40 percent of Almosafer’s overall travel market, according to CEO Muzzammil Ahussain. 

This growth is underscored by a 45 percent year-on-year increase in domestic flight bookings in 2024, alongside a 39 percent rise in room night bookings, according to Almosafer’s latest travel trend report, released during the third Saudi Tourism Forum held in Riyadh. 

The surge is linked to the country’s expanding tourism offerings and enhanced connectivity through low-cost carriers, with family and group travel seeing a particular boost, rising over 70 percent, the report added.

“The country has invested heavily in creating offerings and events to support domestic tourism,” Ahussain told Arab News on the sidelines of the event. “We see continued strength and sustainability in this, so we remain focused on domestic tourism.”

Almosafer, a Saudi travel company and part of Seera Group, is benefiting from this trend as domestic tourism becomes more sustainable. “In the report, over 40 percent of all of our bookings are now domestic,” Ahussain explained. “That doesn’t mean international travel is slowing down; overall travel is growing.”

He said flight prices dropped 7 percent year on year, prompting higher spending in destinations. “People are spending more on hotels, staying longer, and spending on experiences and events,” Ahussain said. “So overall, total spend is increasing.”

Despite the growth, challenges remain. Almosafer CEO said that the limited hotel supply during peak times, such as Riyadh season, leads to higher rates and makes it difficult for travelers to find accommodations. 

“We’ve already seen a number of initiatives to improve hotel capacity and rooms across the country,” Ahussain said, adding that such improvements would make domestic tourism more attractive at all levels, from luxury to economy. 

The company’s ongoing efforts to enhance partnerships with regional authorities and airlines are also key to this growth, and Almosafer said it collaborates closely with the Saudi Tourism Authority and regional bodies like the Aseer Investment Authority.

“We’ve had a number of signings at the Saudi Tourism Forum with different authorities from around the country to promote and market key destinations,” he added.

Ahussain also highlighted the strong partnerships Almosafer has with low-cost carriers like flynas and flyadeal, as well as its new partnership with Riyadh Air, which is set to launch later in 2025.

Looking ahead, Ahussain is optimistic about the impact of global events, such as Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup, on the Kingdom’s tourism sector. “These projects and events, as we saw with Expo 2020 Dubai, help build a brand for a city or country, and that brand creates awareness,” Ahussain said.

He continued: “When people come, whether domestically or internationally, we are working to build a foundation that supports them throughout their travel — before, during, and after these events.”

Almosafer is also preparing for an initial public offering as part of its long-term strategy, with a target IPO date in 2025 or 2026.

“In November 2023, Seera Group announced that Almosafer would be targeted for an IPO in two to three years,” he said. 

“We’re still on track with that plan and working toward it.”

With domestic tourism growing rapidly, Almosafer is enhancing its digital offerings through partnerships aimed at streamlining travel services. 

During the forum, Almosafer signed a memorandum of understanding with the Saudi Tourism Authority to integrate digital platforms, enhancing access to travel services. 

Ahussain explained that the partnership also aimed to improve Sara Al, the smart guide for Saudi tourism, by adding booking services for flights and accommodations.