RIYADH: Banks in Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE are expected to maintain stability in 2025, supported by strong capital buffers, favorable economic conditions, and supportive government policies, according to a new analysis.
In Kuwait, S&P Global forecasts improved asset quality, driven by a stronger economy and lower interest rates.
The banking sector is well-positioned to deal with potential geopolitical stress in the region, with stronger lending growth offsetting the negative impact of lower interest rates on profitability, it added.
S&P Global’s analysis echoes the views shared by Fitch Ratings in November 2024, which stated that the standalone credit profiles of Islamic banks in Kuwait are expected to remain stable in 2025, supported by favorable operating conditions.
“After an estimated 2.3 percent contraction in 2024, we expect Kuwait’s GDP growth will rebound to 3 percent in 2025 as OPEC+ oil production restrictions are gradually eased, and project implementation and reform momentum improves,” said Puneet Tuli, S&P Global Ratings credit analyst.
The report added that accelerated reforms following last year’s political changes could improve the pace of reform and growth prospects for the economy, “which in turn would support higher lending growth for the banking system.”
According to the report, the credit losses in the Kuwaiti banking sector are approaching cyclical lows.
S&P Global added that banks are likely to resort to write-offs to limit the rise in the nonperforming loan ratio, supported by strong provisioning buffers.
The analysis further noted that banks in Kuwait operate with robust capital buffers and typically retain 50 percent or more of their profits, which supports their capitalization.
The US-based agency also highlighted that Kuwaiti banks’ funding structures benefit from a solid core customer deposit base and a net external asset position.
“Deposits from government and public institutions have experienced some volatility in the past, as these entities seek to diversify their deposits among local and foreign banks. However, we believe that government support to systemically important banks will be forthcoming if needed,” said S&P Global.
It added: “Private sector deposits from corporations and households have been stable and dominate Kuwaiti banks’ funding base.”
Qatar’s outlook
In Qatar, S&P Global expects continued strong performance for banks in 2025, driven by strong capitalization and ample liquidity. The rise in liquefied natural gas production, along with its impact on the non-hydrocarbon economy, is expected to support credit growth in the next two to three years.
The report added that local funding sources will play an increasing role in supporting credit growth among Qatari banks, driven by slower public sector deleveraging.
S&P Global also noted that the Qatari government’s strong support for its banking sector is expected to mitigate the risk of external debt outflows in the event of escalating geopolitical risks.
“Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are high but we currently do not expect a full-scale regional conflict, and we anticipate macroeconomic conditions in Qatar will remain broadly stable,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Juili Pargaonkar.
Forecast for the UAE
In the UAE, S&P Global forecasts improved asset quality metrics and lower credit losses in 2025, driven by a robust domestic economy.
The agency expects banks in the emirates to maintain strong capital buffers, robust funding profiles, and continued government support in 2025, which will underpin their resilience.
The analysis also noted that banks in the UAE have experienced a significant increase in deposits over the past three years, which will help sustain their strong growth momentum in 2025.
“Deposit growth has improved in recent years as private corporations and retail depositors prioritized saving over spending, and higher interest rates provided better yields on deposits,” said S&P Global.
It added: “We expect strong deposit growth to continue through 2025, given the non-oil economy remains supportive, leading to stronger cash flow generation from corporations.”
