Hispanic support for Trump raises red flag for Biden

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People walk to the pedestrian crossing at the San Luis Port of Entry, in the heavily Hispanic Yuma County, a Democratic stronghold in the southwestern corner of Arizona along the Mexico border, in San Luis, Arizona. (REUTERS/Rebecca Noble)
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Updated 17 December 2023
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Hispanic support for Trump raises red flag for Biden

  • Recent Reuters/Ipsos survey found Trump narrowly leading Biden in support, 38 percent to 37 percent.
  • Advocacy group UnidosUS poll found that the top issues for Hispanic voters are inflation, jobs and the economy
  • Democrats were focused too heavily on voting rights and how Trump posed a threat to democracy, says political analys

SAN LUIS, Arizona: When Michele Pena ran as a Republican candidate for the Arizona state legislature in a heavily Hispanic and Democratic-leaning district on the Mexican border, few believed she could win. Pena, the daughter of a Mexican immigrant, was a school volunteer and single mother with no political experience. She began with a campaign budget of just $1,600. She nonetheless scored an upset victory last year in the district, which is separated from Mexico by miles of border wall built under former President Donald Trump to keep out “bad hombres.” “Hispanics go hard Democrat there all the time. But they saw me as a regular person, and when we got talking, a lot of people told me things aren’t going well,” the 49-year-old said in an interview from her home city of Yuma.

The predominant concerns for many voters were high food and gas prices, job prospects and the quality of schools rather than issues around minority rights, she added.
Pena’s surprise win underscores how a growing number of Hispanic voters are switching their allegiance to Trump and Republican candidates in Arizona and other election battleground states, according to interviews with five Republican and Democratic analysts.
It’s a worrying trend for Democratic President Joe Biden as he prepares for a likely general election rematch with Trump in November 2024. Hispanics, who have typically leaned Democrat, are the largest minority in the US electorate, making up almost a fifth of the population, and will play a pivotal role in a handful of swing states that will decide the election.
Take Arizona, where a tight race beckons.




A sign shows a projected visualization of the ongoing construction of the San Luis Port of Entry funded by President Joe Biden's Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, in the heavily Hispanic Yuma County, in San Luis, Arizona. (REUTERS/Rebecca Noble)

A third of the population is Hispanic in the state, which Biden won by just 10,000 votes in the last presidential race. In the southwest district that Pena won last year, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 12 percent.
In 2020, Trump’s national share of Hispanic voters rose by 8 percentage points to 36 percent, compared with the 2016 election, according to the non-partisan Pew Research Center.
More recently, a Reuters/Ipsos survey of almost 800 Hispanic adults carried out this month found Trump narrowly leading Biden in support, 38 percent to 37 percent. The survey results had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of about 4 percentage points in either direction.
“All the data we’ve seen since the 2016 elections suggests there’s considerable weakening of Democratic support among Hispanics,” said Ruy Teixeira, a veteran Democratic political analyst who has spent decades studying Hispanic voting trends.
Teixeira said Democrats have been focusing too heavily on issues including voting rights and how Trump posed a threat to democracy.
“They are dancing around the number one issue — high prices,” he added. “It’s not what working-class voters want out of a political party.”
Such assertions are supported by a November survey carried out by UnidosUS, the largest Latino non-profit advocacy group, which found that the top issues for Hispanic voters are inflation, jobs and the economy.
Democrats reject suggestions they are focusing on the wrong issues. They point to heavy investment by the Biden campaign in the 2020 election, and the Democratic Party in the 2022 congressional elections, to run ads in key states on issues including job growth and improving the economy for working families.

Knocking on doors
Pena used a campaign strategy that Republicans have been executing for several years to attract more Hispanic voters: show visibility in working-class neighborhoods, run more Spanish-language TV and radio ads, open Spanish-speaking offices, and try to convince voters that Republicans can improve their lot more than Democrats.
The Republican National Committee opened Hispanic community centers in 19 states in 2022 — including two in Arizona — where volunteers were trained to door-knock and make calls in Spanish.
In Arizona, Republicans have backed legislation they believe appeals to working-class Hispanics, including the “Tamale bill” that would have relaxed rules around the selling of food made in home kitchens. The state’s Democratic governor vetoed the measure this year on health-and safety grounds.
Pena said she knocked on hundreds of doors in working-class areas in small cities such as San Luis with a message focused on improving schools, lowering prices, and love of family. She heard worries from voters about social policies backed by many Democrats, including gender-neutral bathrooms in schools.
“They saw I was a Republican, and it was a new perspective for a lot of people,” Pena said, because few had spoken at length to a Republican candidate before.
Pena’s victory was a minor political earthquake in Arizona. Democrats expected to win both the district’s seats, which would have created a 30-30 tie in the state House of Representatives, robbing Republicans of their majority.
Pena defeated Democrat Jesus Lugo Jr. by just over 3,000 votes, 4 percent of the vote.
Democrats say they have made similar on-the-ground campaign efforts. Lugo, a social worker, told Reuters he ran on a platform of reducing homelessness, domestic violence, substance abuse, increasing mental health resources and criminal justice reform.
The 30-year-old rejects suggestions he lost to Pena due to the issues focused on. He said she won because the Republicans used a political tactic known as the “single shot“: running only one candidate in a district with two seats, increasing the chance for Republicans to win one seat rather than losing both.
Matt Barreto, the lead Latino pollster for the 2020 Biden campaign, said the playing field in 2024 will be different. He said the 2020 contest was a struggle in some areas because of the COVID-19 pandemic, when Democrats — unlike Republicans — heeded government warnings and did not campaign door-to-door or open offices in Hispanic neighborhoods.
Jason Miller, a Trump campaign spokesperson, said Trump would focus on issues important to Hispanic voters, including the economy, crime, and the southern border. “Hispanic voters will be very important in 2024,” Miller said.

Support for border wall
Democratic analyst Teixeira said his party had made a fundamental mistake in recent election cycles: assuming Hispanic voters would find Trump and fellow Republicans’ tough rhetoric against illegal immigrants as racist.
“Huge proportions of the Hispanic population, especially working-class Hispanics, are actually pretty disturbed by illegal immigration,” Teixeira said, referring to migrants crossing the border into the US without visas.
Many Hispanics do find Trump’s rhetoric offensive and vote for the Democratic Party. Most are focused on which party can best address their economic concerns, according to the UnidosUS poll.
In Reuters interviews with a dozen Hispanic voters in Yuma County, which contains part of Pena’s district, none said they found Trump’s rhetoric about illegal Mexican immigrants — whom he once described as murderers and rapists — as racist or xenophobic.
The people were focused on high prices, which most blamed Biden for. Of the dozen, six plan to vote for Trump, and the rest were undecided. Eight supported a border wall and wanted illegal immigrants kept out.
A large chunk of Trump’s border wall sits close to San Luis, which has a population of around 35,000 and is a mix of big modern stores such as Walmart and scores of small Spanish-language food and clothing shops.
Alma Cuevas, 56, a retired school librarian in the city, came to the US with her family from Mexico aged one.
An independent, she is undecided about next year’s election, but doesn’t think she can back Biden. She feels he has failed to deal with the influx of thousands of migrants across the border.
She is leaning toward Trump, because she felt better off economically when he was president.

’People feel disappointed'
Jaime Regalado, a non-partisan veteran analyst of Hispanic voting patterns and polling, echoed the complaints of some Hispanic rights groups, saying the Democratic Party only courted Hispanics at election time, assuming their support, rather than working full-time for their support.
Biden aides rejected that claim. They said his campaign had already made the largest and earliest outreach to Hispanics for a presidential re-election campaign, including Spanish-language ads targeting Latino voters in battleground states.
One ad tells voters that it’s Biden whose economic policies help Hispanic families, rather than Republicans.
“We refuse to take any vote for granted. That’s why this campaign is investing early and often to mobilize Latinos to again help deliver Joe Biden the White House,” said Maca Casado, a Biden campaign spokesperson.
They will face an uphill task convincing voters like Aracely Mendez, a lettuce picker in San Luis, who said she voted for Pena last year and will back Trump in 2024.
“People feel disappointed with the Democrats,” the 42-year-old said. “Prices went up. It’s tough.”


China, Philippines trade barbs over disputed reef

Updated 45 min 50 sec ago
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China, Philippines trade barbs over disputed reef

  • The Sandy Cay reef lies near Thitu Island, or Pag-asa, where the Philippines stations troops and maintains a coast guard monitoring base
  • Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said Saturday that the country’s coast guard had ‘implemented maritime control’ over Tiexian Reef, part of Sandy Cay

MANILA: China and the Philippines on Monday defended their claims to a disputed reef in the South China Sea, after Manila accused Beijing of seeking to “intimidate and harass” with a state media report that suggested the area had been seized.
The Sandy Cay reef lies near Thitu Island, or Pag-asa, where the Philippines stations troops and maintains a coast guard monitoring base.
Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said Saturday that the country’s coast guard had “implemented maritime control” over Tiexian Reef, part of Sandy Cay, in mid-April.
The Philippines and China have been engaged in months of confrontations over the South China Sea, which Beijing claims nearly in its entirety despite an international ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.
“There is no truth whatsoever to the claim of the China Coast Guard that the (Sandy Cay sandbanks) have been seized,” National Security Council spokesman Jonathan Malaya told a Monday press conference.
“It’s in the interest of the People’s Republic of China to use the information space to intimidate and harass,” he said, calling the Sandy Cay report a “made-up” story that had been “irresponsible” to disseminate.
CCTV on Saturday published a photograph of four coast guard officials posing with a national flag on the reef’s white surface, in what the broadcaster described as a “vow of sovereignty.”
On Monday, the Philippine Coast Guard released its own photo showing Filipino sailors holding the country’s flag over the same disputed reef during an early morning mission the day before.
There do not appear to be any signs that China has permanently occupied or built a structure on the reef, which is a group of small sandbanks in the Spratly Islands.
Beijing’s foreign ministry on Monday reiterated the reef was part of China’s territory and said its moves constituted “rights protection and law enforcement activities.”
Spokesman Guo Jiakun said the steps were “aimed at countering the Philippines’ illegal landing and other acts of infringement and provocation” as well as “firmly safeguarding national territorial sovereignty.”
In recent months, Beijing and Manila have blamed each other for causing what they describe as the ecological degradation of several disputed landforms in the South China Sea.
The US and Philippine militaries are currently conducting joint exercises that Beijing has said constitute a threat to regional stability.
Chinese warships have been spotted in Philippine waters since those bilateral “Balikatan” exercises kicked off last week, with aircraft carrier Shandong reportedly coming within 2.23 nautical miles (about four kilometers) of northern Babuyan Island.


India, Pakistan exchange small arms fire, China urges restraint

Updated 28 April 2025
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India, Pakistan exchange small arms fire, China urges restraint

  • After the April 22 attack that killed 26 people, India has identified two of the three suspected militants as Pakistani
  • The attack triggered outrage and grief in Hindu-majority India, along with calls for action against Islamic Pakistan

SRINAGAR, India: India said on Monday it had responded to ‘unprovoked’ small arms firing from Pakistan along the de facto border for the fourth consecutive night, as it deepens its search for militants in the region following last week’s deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir.
After the April 22 attack that killed 26 people, India has identified two of the three suspected militants as Pakistani, although Islamabad has denied any role and called for a neutral probe.
Security officials and survivors have said the militants segregated the men at the site, a meadow in the Pahalgam area, asked their names and targeted Hindus before shooting them at close range.
The attack triggered outrage and grief in Hindu-majority India, along with calls for action against Islamic Pakistan, whom New Delhi accuses of funding and encouraging terrorism in Kashmir, a region both nations claim and have fought two wars over.
The nuclear-armed nations have unleashed a raft of measures against each other, with India putting the critical Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance and Pakistan closing its airspace to Indian airlines.
China, a key player in the region, said on Monday it hoped India and Pakistan will exercise restraint and welcomed all measures that will help cool down the situation.
The Indian Army said it had responded to “unprovoked” small arms fire from multiple Pakistan Army posts around midnight on Sunday along the 740-km de facto border separating the Indian and Pakistani areas of Kashmir. It gave no further details and reported no casualties.
The Pakistani military did not respond to a request for comment.
In a separate statement, the Pakistan army said it has killed 54 Islamist militants who were trying to enter the country from the Afghanistan border to the west in the last two days.
India’s defense forces have conducted several military exercises across the country since the attack. Some of these are routine preparedness drills, a defense official said.
Security forces have detained around 500 people for questioning after they searched nearly 1,000 houses and forests hunting for militants in Indian Kashmir, a local police official told Reuters on Monday.
At least nine houses have been demolished so far, the official added.
Political leaders in the state have called for caution to ensure the innocent are not harmed in the government’s actions against terrorism after the deadliest incident of its kind in India in nearly two decades.
“This is the first time in 26 years that I have seen people coming out in this way...to say we are not with this attack,” Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah told the legislature.
“It (militancy) will finish when people are with us, and today it seems like people are getting there,” he said.
Kashmir Resistance, also known as The Resistance Front, said in a post on X that it “unequivocally” denied involvement in last week’s attack, after an initial message that claimed responsibility.
The group, considered an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba by a Delhi-based think tank, blamed a ‘cyber intrusion’ for the previous social media post that claimed responsibility.


China says ‘no phone call’ recently between Xi and Trump

Updated 28 April 2025
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China says ‘no phone call’ recently between Xi and Trump

  • The world’s two biggest economies are locked in an escalating tit-for-tat trade battle

BEIJING: Beijing on Monday insisted that “no phone call” took place recently between President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart, after Donald Trump said he had spoken with the Chinese leader.
The world’s two biggest economies are locked in an escalating tit-for-tat trade battle triggered by Trump’s levies on Chinese goods, which have reached 145 percent on many products.
In an interview conducted on April 22 with TIME Magazine and published Friday, Trump insisted Chinese leader Xi called him despite Beijing denying there had been any contact between the two countries over their bitter trade dispute.
The US president did not say when the call took place or specify what was discussed.
Asked about the comments Monday, foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said: “As far as I know, there has been no phone call between the two heads of state recently.”
“China and the United States are not conducting consultations or negotiations on tariff issues,” he added.


Trump’s NATO warnings jolt Europe into rethinking defense

Updated 28 April 2025
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Trump’s NATO warnings jolt Europe into rethinking defense

  • Trump has accused NATO allies of spending too little on their own defense
  • Europe-wide, industry leaders and experts have pointed out challenges the continent must overcome to be a truly self-sufficient military power

MADRID: Inside a sprawling hangar in Spain, workers bolt together a fuselage for European aerospace giant Airbus, which churns out jets and other military equipment.
The multinational conglomerate is a rarity in Europe’s defense industry, backed by Spain, Germany, France and Britain. The norm for defense industries on the continent is big-name national champions and hundreds of small companies mostly working to fill orders for state governments.
That piecemeal paradigm could hinder Europe’s plan for spending more on defense, which has been given a jolt — and previously unimaginable political backing — following US President Donald Trump’s threats to not protect NATO allies in the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
For years, Trump has accused NATO allies of spending too little on their own defense. In recent months, the chasm in trans-Atlantic ties has grown. The Trump administration has signaled that US priorities lie beyond Europe and Ukraine and that the time has come “for Europe to stand on its own feet.”
The shortfall in defense spending is most evident is Spain.
Last year, it trailed all NATO allies in defense spending as a share of GDP, forcing the country to play catch-up this year to reach the alliance’s 2 percent spending goal. NATO leaders are expected to again increase that goal this summer.
Europe-wide, industry leaders and experts have pointed out challenges the continent must overcome to be a truly self-sufficient military power, chiefly its decades-long reliance on the US as well as its fragmented defense industry.
“Europe procures a majority of its defense material outside of Europe, and that’s really something we have to depart from,” said Jean-Brice Dumont, head of air power at Airbus Defense and Space at the aircraft maker’s factory outside Madrid. “The journey until we get full autonomy is a long journey, but it has to be started.”
Moving out of Washington’s shadow
The pro-defense shift in Europe can be seen in the stock markets, where major European arms makers such as BAE Systems (UK), Leonardo (Italy), Rheinmetall (Germany), Thales (France) and Saab (Sweden) have all been on the rise despite recent turmoil caused by Trump’s tariffs.
European companies are poised to benefit from a push by European Union policy makers to ensure that as many euros as possible end up in European companies, as opposed to flowing across the Atlantic. The challenge is daunting, but not as scary as having to face a potential military threat without American help.
One question is: How quickly can production scale up?
An EU white paper published last month bluntly stated that Europe’s defense industry is not able to produce defense systems and equipment sufficient for what member states need. It noted where much of the bloc’s spending has taken place: the US
Europe has relied on the US not just for military equipment but also intelligence, surveillance and even software updates. Supply chain complexities mean that European-made equipment often use software or other components built and even operated by US companies.
Airbus’ A330 MRTT air-to-air refueling plane, made outside Madrid, is an example of specialized equipment called enablers that Europe largely lacks.
Another example is Sweden’s Gripen fighter made by Saab, which has an engine made by American firm General Electric, noted Lorenzo Scarazzato, a researcher at the Stockholm Peace Research Institute who studies Europe’s arms industry.
According to a recent SIPRI report, more than half of Europe’s arms imports from 2020 to 2024 came from the US
Changing this paradigm will take years of sustained investment, Scarazzato said, and common vision across the bloc. “It’s going to be a massive overhaul of the whole command and control structure.”
A fragmented industry
A fragmented defense industry in Europe reduces the interoperability of equipment, experts say, and makes it harder to build economies of scale.
For example, there are at least 12 types of tanks produced across the 27-nation EU, compared to just one used by the US military, according to the European Defense Agency.
But there have been some recent positive developments in the private sector, the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted in its 2025 Military Balance report. Leonardo and Rheinmetall started a joint venture last year for combat vehicles.
Europe’s capitals have historically looked to spend on their own local industries — not neighboring ones — to ensure jobs and feed national pride ingrained in manufacturing military hardware, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at IISS.
“The fundamental economic heft is there. Partly it’s a question of political will, partly the question of national pride and national identities,” Barrie said. “While politicians can kind of advocate for consolidation, it has to be driven by individuals within industry, and it will be the industrialists who will see a logic in this.”
The urge for European governments to favor local manufacturers — instead of shopping among other European companies for better value — was evident this month when Spain announced that it will raise defense spending by an additional 10.5 billion euros ($12 billion) this year.
The government said 87 percent of that money would go to Spanish companies in the hopes of generating nearly 100,000 direct and indirect jobs and boosting Spain’s GDP by 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points.
“Every time there is a political interest in consolidation, that’s what you bump into,” Barrie said.
Hope for the future?

The European Commission is offering 150 billion euros ($170 billion) for member states and Ukraine to buy air defense systems, drones and strategic enablers like air transport, as well as to boost cybersecurity.
It’s part of a package of measures that include easing budgetary rules for defense spending and reshuffling EU funds to reflect security priorities.
Under the proposals, member states will be invited to buy at least 40 percent of defense equipment “by working together” and trade at least 35 percent of defense goods between EU countries, as opposed to outside ones, by 2030.
Airbus’ Dumont said his message for Europe’s leaders was clear.
“Europe has to fund its European industry to prepare the defense of tomorrow, for the day after tomorrow and for the years to come. And that’s what we see happening now.”


Australia’s ruling party to hike student visa fees again in pre-election pledge

Updated 28 April 2025
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Australia’s ruling party to hike student visa fees again in pre-election pledge

  • The visa fee hike, from A$1,600 currently, will bring in A$760 million over the next four years
  • Almost 200,000 international students arrived in Australia in February 2025, government statistics show

SYDNEY: Australia’s ruling Labour Party said on Monday it would raise visa fees for international students to A$2,000 ($1,279) if reelected, the latest measure aimed at the lucrative education sector that has been a major source of immigration.
The visa fee hike, from A$1,600 currently, will bring in A$760 million over the next four years, Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers and finance minister Katy Gallagher said in a statement on Labor’s policy costings for Saturday’s federal election.
“We think that’s a sensible measure that really prizes, I think, the value of studying here in Australia,” Gallagher told a news conference.
The government more than doubled the fee for international student visas in July last year to A$1,600 from A$710.
Australia’s conservative opposition has already pledged to raise the visa fee to a minimum of A$2,500, and A$5,000 for applicants to the country’s top universities, known as the Group of Eight.
International students are a major source of revenue for Australian universities, but are also in part responsible for a rise in net migration that has driven up housing costs.
Almost 200,000 international students arrived in Australia in February 2025, government statistics show, an increase of 12.1 percent over the previous year and 7.3 percent higher than pre-COVID levels in February 2019.
Labor has promised to cap international student commencements at 270,000 in 2025, while the opposition favors a lower figure of 240,000.
There were more than a million international students enrolled in Australia in 2024, while 572,000 students commenced their studies.
Visa fees for students in Australia are already significantly higher than similar countries such as the US and Canada, where they cost about $185 and C$150 ($108) respectively.
The government last year also tightened English language requirements for student and graduate visas, as well as introducing powers to suspend education providers from recruiting international students if they repeatedly break rules.