LONDON: There have been encouraging signs for lovers of Test cricket toward the end 2024. This is just as well because the T20 franchise season is almost upon us. There are those who are convinced that the T20 format is the only way of the future, but this seems disrespectful of the game’s oldest format.

One factor that seems to have assisted Test cricket was the creation of the World Test Championship by the International Cricket Council.

It comprises nine of the 12 ICC full members and is played on a two-year cycle. The first one, 2019-2021, was interrupted by COVID-19, with New Zealand beating India in the final. India also reached the final of the 2021-2023 cycle, but Australia triumphed. The WTC provides a framework for Test cricket by which teams are rated on the basis of results. The concept was first mooted as far back as 1996. It took until 2010 for agreement to be reached on its structure but was shelved in 2013 due to financial considerations. 

The eventual tournament structure consists of 69 matches played between the nine teams across 27 series. Each team plays six series, three at home and three away, with each series containing two to five Test matches. The two teams with the highest number of points progress to the final. 

Critics point to severe flaws in this structure. International cricket’s packed calendar means that not all teams play long series. Logistical challenges are too great to overcome to allow a home-and-away format. India and Pakistan do not play each other, while Test cricket is not financially viable outside of Australia, England and India.

It is quite an achievement, therefore, that South Africa is the first team to qualify for the final, which will be played in June, 2025, at Lords. This was achieved via six two-Test series against India, West Indies, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, New Zealand and Pakistan. The last of these is currently in play against Pakistan. The first match was laden with drama. South Africa’s cricketing history contains many near misses and self-induced disasters, including the 2024 T20 World Cup final. Needing 30 runs from 30 deliveries, with six wickets in hand, South Africa lost by seven runs.     

Another disaster seemed a distinct possibility at Centurion Park, Pretoria. Requiring only 148 for victory, South Africa slumped to 99 for eight in the face of superb fast bowling by Pakistan. Then, Kagiso Rabada, batting at number ten and Marco Jansen, batting at eight, shared a 51-run partnership to secure victory. Celebrations, no doubt tinged with relief, erupted. Sadly, there were few people there to witness the event.

This was not the case in Melbourne, where an equally thrilling Test match was won by Australia when India collapsed in the final session of the final day. Requiring 340 to win, India seemed to have set out to draw the match. At tea, the strategy looked to be working, India reaching 122 from three in 54 overs. A carelessly given-away wicket sparked the loss of seven wickets for 30 runs. Over the five days, the Test had been watched by 373,691 spectators, a new record for a Test match in Australia.

Australia’s captain, Pat Cummins, was awarded player of the match for his performance with both ball and bat. His leadership qualities seem to know no bounds. His opposite number, Rohit Sharma, had a disappointing match. It is likely for both him and Virat Kohli to be the last series that they play in Australia. The team’s chances of making the WTC final are also fading.

Two months ago, it looked like Australia and India would be the two to reach the final. Now, it is Australia whose chances are the brightest. After a fifth Test against India next week, they have a two-match series against Sri Lanka to navigate. India’s cause was dealt a blow in a surprising twist of fate. After being beaten on tour in August in an ODI series by Sri Lanka for the first time in 27 years, the Test team lost all three matches to New Zealand in October. This ended India’s 12-year unbeaten run in Tests at home. It has not been an auspicious start to Gautam Gambhir’s term as full-time head coach.   

In the race to join South Africa in the WTC final, Australia is in second place in the standings and India is third. The standings are calculated on the basis of the percentage of points won out of the total number of points contested. Twelve points are awarded for a win, a tie draw earns six points, a draw earns four, while points are deducted for slow-over rates. Australia’s percentage of points won is 61.46, while India’s is 52.78.   

Australia requires one win from three remaining Tests — India at home and Sri Lanka away — to reach the final. India must win the final Test of their series against Australia and then rely on Sri Lanka to beat or draw with Australia. Sri Lanka has its own slim hopes. If the fifth Test between Australia and India ends in a draw and Sri Lanka wins both Tests against Australia at home, it will secure a place in the final.

A South Africa v Sri Lanka WTC final would be a major surprise and would probably lead to more concentrated criticism of the championship. In South Africa’s case, it would reopen accusations that it has disrespected Test cricket by sending a weakened squad to New Zealand in early 2024. This was because the top players were required to play in the SA T20 domestic tournament. South Africa’s defense is that, because Test cricket does not make money, the board had little option to develop another income stream.

It is impossible to know if the prospect of appearing in the WTC final affected player and team performance in the two exciting matches that have just concluded. The final matches of the cycle may yet generate more tension. Despite its flaws, the WTC has been one of governing body’s best initiatives, encapsulating Test cricket’s unpredictability.