Resetting Pakistan-US ties

The visit by Pakistan’s army chief General Asim Munir to the US marked an important effort at re-engagement by the two countries. He held meetings with military officers as well as State Department and White House officials. He also visited the headquarters of Central Command in Tampa, Florida. These wide-ranging interactions should help the process to reset the relationship, which has been in a state of flux since the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.

Pakistan-US relations are at an inflection point today. For the past two decades, the relationship pivoted around Afghanistan and lacked any significant bilateral content. Now the two countries have to find a new basis for ties. Historically, geopolitical concerns and superpower dynamics that shaped America’s regional alignments and priorities also defined relations with Pakistan They drove bilateral ties into different phases. First, in the Cold War, when the US aim was to contain communism, Pakistan became America’s “most allied ally.” Then came the shared interest, after 1979, of rolling back the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. And then the post-9/11 phase that involved defeating Al-Qaeda in the ‘war on terror.’ That chapter ended with the US pullout from Afghanistan. These phases laid bare an ineluctable reality. Positive transformations in ties were almost always driven by events extraneous to the bilateral relationship.

The last phase in relations proved consequential for future ties. The ‘long war’ waged by America in Afghanistan created a disconnect with Pakistan. Pakistani leaders continued to call for the military strategy to give way to a political one, but the top leadership in Washington believed America’s powerful armed forces, along with their NATO allies, would defeat the Taliban. America persisted with the war while mounting pressure on reluctant officials in Islamabad to “do more.” The Americans ignored how the conflict had already spilled over to destabilize Pakistan and exact a heavy cost in lives, inflict dire social and economic consequences, including militant attacks inside Pakistan. As America’s war effort faltered, the strains in relations intensified and trust eroded. Pakistan sought to keep its channel of communication open with the Taliban, believing that one day everyone would have to deal with them. Washington saw this as evidence of Pakistan’s ‘double game.’

The challenge is for the two countries to find space between the Pakistan-China strategic relationship and the US-India partnership to rebuild ties on a mutually beneficial basis. 

- Maleeha Lodhi

Even before the US pullout from Afghanistan, geopolitical dynamics were shifting fundamentally as China intensified its diplomatic and economic engagement and launched its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Regional countries including Pakistan began to sense a waning of both American interests and influence. Former President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy also signalled disengagement from the region. This coincided with a significant deepening of Pakistan’s longstanding strategic ties with China. They were symbolized by its pivotal role in BRI and the accompanying Chinese investment in Pakistan’s infrastructure, energy and development projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Increasingly, America was seen as a self-absorbed and inconsistent partner as well as a reluctant regional player. China was perceived as having the interest, money and growing global clout needed for a more constructive and enduring relationship – a global power who met both Pakistan’s security and economic interests. 

Although China is Pakistan’s strategic priority, Islamabad also wants a strengthened and stable relationship with America. The US remains Pakistan’s largest export market, a source of FDI and a global power with significant influence, especially over international financial institutions, whose assistance Pakistan’s crisis-prone economy constantly needs. 

Any significant reset of ties will be influenced by a number of key factors. The most important is America’s policy of containing China and the pursuit of a strategy to mobilize countries to join it to counter Beijing’s rising global power. The revitalization of Quad, AUKUS security partnership and its Indo-Pacific strategy are all part of efforts to cement an anti-China coalition.

This confrontation has obvious implications for Pakistan-US relations. Pakistan wants to avoid getting into the crosshairs of American-Chinese confrontation, but that is easier said than done. So long as US-China relations remain rocky it will have a bearing on Pakistan’s effort to reshape ties with Washington. Islamabad may want to ‘balance’ ties between the US and China but it cannot be part of any anti-China coalition or strategy. 

Another complicating factor is Washington’s growing strategic and economic relations with India, its partner of choice in the region in its strategy to project India as a counterweight to China. The implications for Pakistan of the US-India entente are evident from Washington turning a blind eye to India’s illegal annexation of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and its continuing silence over the grim situation there. Moreover, the US strengthening of India’s military and strategic capabilities is aggravating the regional imbalance and magnifying Pakistan’s security challenge. 

The challenge then is for the two countries to find space between the Pakistan-China strategic relationship and the US-India partnership to rebuild ties on a mutually beneficial basis. There certainly is space and areas of cooperation for them to explore in order to redefine ties. Pakistan wants to predicate future relations on the country’s intrinsic importance and not as a subset of ties with a third country. It wants ties to expand beyond the security focus to other areas especially trade and investment. But with elections due in both countries, any substantial effort at a reset will have to wait until new governments are in place to undertake this task. 

- Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. Twitter @LodhiMaleeha