Has Lebanon’s Hezbollah been strengthened or weakened by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza?

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Smoke billows above the Lebanese village of Bint Jbeil during Israeli bombardment on February 28, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. (AFP)
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Smoke billows above a Lebanese village during Israeli bombardment on March 4, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. (AFP)
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Smoke billows above a Lebanese village during Israeli bombardment on February 28, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. (AFP)
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Updated 07 March 2024
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Has Lebanon’s Hezbollah been strengthened or weakened by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza?

  • Lebanon is fearful tit-for-tat violence between Israel and Hezbollah could escalate into devastating conflict
  • Pressure to support Hamas in Gaza while avoiding all-out war with Israel puts Iran-backed Hezbollah in a bind

DUBAI: After a string of losses suffered by Hezbollah since the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza began on Oct. 7, Middle East analysts are increasingly asking whether the Iran-backed group has been politically and militarily weakened by the contained conflict in southern Lebanon.

Despite talk of a potential ceasefire in Gaza, there is no guarantee that Israel and Hezbollah will halt their deadly exchanges along Lebanon’s southern border. Nor would it put a stop to the suspected targeted killings of militia leaders deep inside Lebanese territory.




People inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike a day earlier in the southern Lebanese village of Odaisseh near the border with Israel on March 5, 2024. (AFP)

For Lebanon, even this relatively contained tit-for-tat between Israel and Hezbollah has been costly. Civilians living along the border have been killed while thousands have fled north over fears of an Israeli invasion.

On Monday, US envoy Amos Hochstein landed in Beirut in a bid by Washington to reduce regional tensions. His visit coincided with an attack on northern Israel, launched from Lebanon, that left an Indian worker dead and seven others wounded.




Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati (R) meets with US envoy Amos Hochstein in Beirut onn March 4, 2024. (REUTERS)

In a statement during the visit, Hochstein said an escalation “will not help the Lebanese or the Israelis return to their homes. There is no such thing as a limited war; a diplomatic solution is the only way out.”

To achieve “a lasting fair security arrangement between Lebanon and Israel,” Hochstein said “a temporary ceasefire is not enough” and that “a limited war is not containable.”

Security along the Blue Line, demarcated by the UN in 2000 after Israeli troops pulled out of southern Lebanon, “has to change in order to guarantee everyone’s security,” he added.




Peacekeepers from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol the border area between Lebanon and Israel on Hamames hill in the Khiyam area of southern Lebanon, on October 13, 2023. (AFP)

Some analysts believe Hezbollah has done enough to demonstrate support for Palestinians and Hamas, and therefore has nothing more to prove by dragging Lebanon into a major war with Israel.

“It will emerge much stronger and already is stronger internally, because it can claim that it has deterred an Israeli attack,” Nadim Shehadi, former head of the Middle East program at London’s Chatham House, told Arab News.

“If there is no all-out war, then Hezbollah can shut down all the critics of its arms and declare all its opponents as collaborators with the enemy, because they will claim that Hezbollah’s arms protected Lebanon and deterred an attack.

“This is, of course, getting less convincing as Israel escalates, but in the end, they will twist it in their favor.”

INNUMBERS

• 10 Israeli soldiers and reservists killed by Hezbollah and other militia attacks since Oct. 8.

• 229 Hezbollah members killed by Israel, mostly in Lebanon, but some also in Syria.

• 30 Civilians, three of whom were journalists, killed by Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

Although all sides appear keen to avoid a direct military confrontation that could lead to a major regional conflict, there has been no lull in hostilities except as part of the temporary ceasefire in November last year during the Israel-Hamas war.

Speaking on Monday, Hezbollah’s deputy chief, Naim Qassem, reiterated that the militia, which says it is acting in support of Palestinians in Gaza and Hamas, would stop its attacks on Israel once the war in the enclave ends. “Stop the assault on Gaza and war will end in the region,” he said.

However, Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, has said that there will be no let-up in Israeli operations against Hezbollah even if a Gaza ceasefire is secured.




Israel has warned that there would be no letup in its operations against the Hezbollah in Lebanon for as long as they continue to post a threat. (AFP)

Indeed, there is pressure from more hawkish elements in Israel for the government to act decisively against the Hezbollah threat on the country’s northern border. Likewise, Hezbollah is under pressure to ride to the rescue of its Hamas brethren.

There are practical reasons why Hezbollah may be keen to avoid an all-out war with Israel. The availability of weapons, finance for postwar reconstruction and the objectives of Iran could all be key considerations in Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s calculations.

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Through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, “Tehran has invested billions of dollars in Hezbollah’s missiles,” Meir Javedanfar, an Israeli lecturer, author and professor of Iranian politics at Reichman University in Israel, told Arab News.

“Their job, their most important priority, is to deter Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear installations. If Hezbollah gets involved in a war against Israel now, with all those missiles, then Iran’s nuclear program will be left badly exposed.”




Hezbollah fighters take part in a ceremony to commemorate the party's fallen leaders in the Lebanese village of Jibshit, about 50 kilometers south of the capital Beirut on Feb. 15, 2024. (AFP)

Indeed, no matter how sincere its support for the Palestinian cause, Hezbollah has an incentive to keep its powder dry so it can continue to act as a credible deterrent against a pre-emptive Israeli strike on Iran.

“Another is the fact that if there is a war, this time around Iran cannot pay to rebuild Lebanon back like it did in 2006,” said Javedanfar.

“Iran’s economy is doing terribly now and has been under sanctions since 2012. Iranians won’t be able to pay nor restock Hezbollah’s ammunition, and this will all undermine Hezbollah’s position.”




A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 27, 2023, shows missiles being fired during a military drill in the Isfahan province in central Iran. (AFP)

Since Hezbollah began its campaign in solidarity with Hamas on Oct. 8, ostensibly to draw Israeli resources away from the Gaza Strip, Israel has launched a series of targeted drone strikes on militia commanders in Lebanon.

Hussein Yazbeck, whose precise rank in the militia is unknown, was killed on Jan. 3. Wissam Hassan Al-Tawil, a commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, was assassinated on Jan. 8, while Ali Hussein Burji, aerial forces commander, was killed in southern Lebanon on Jan. 9.

Israel has also struck suspected IRGC and Hezbollah weapons depots and missile launch sites in Lebanon, many of which were situated in residential areas.

So far, the armed exchanges have resulted in seven civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of 10 Israel Defense Force soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks on Israel from Syrian territory, without any injuries.

Hezbollah has named 229 members who have been killed by Israel, mostly in Lebanon, but some also in Syria. In Lebanon, another 37 operatives from other groups, a Lebanese soldier and at least 30 civilians, three of whom were journalists, have been killed.




Hezbollah militants and supporters attend the funeral of Ali al-Debs, one of the militant group's commanders killed by an Israeli air raid two days earlier, in Lebanon's southern city of Nabatieyh on February 16, 2024. (AFP)

Lebanese ministers have continued to urge restraint. “At a time where we insist on calm and call on all sides to not escalate, we find the Israeli enemy extending its aggression,” Najib Mikati, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, said in a statement last month.

The statement came in response to a deadly Israeli airstrike in Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, which left 10 civilians dead, including seven members of the same family and a mother and her two children. A day of mourning was called in the aftermath of the attack.

Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, condemned the “massacre,” adding that “the bloodshed in Nabatieh is on the hands of the international envoys, the UN and human rights organizations” for failing to act to reduce tensions.

Hezbollah, meanwhile, vowed to retaliate for the attack. “The enemy will pay the price for these crimes,” Hassan Fadlallah, a senior Hezbollah official, said in a statement.




Hezbollah supreme leader Hassan Nasrallah is seen on large television screen in Beirut as he delivers a televised address amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. (AFP)

Soon after, a barrage of rockets was fired toward a military base in Safed in northern Israel, killing Israeli army Staff Sgt. Omer Sarah Benjo.

Although Hezbollah may have strengthened its position politically in Lebanon, while preserving its strategic advantage on behalf of Iran, there are some who will view the militia’s restraint as a sign of weakness at a time when its Palestinian allies were most in need.

“We don’t want war, but if they (the Israelis) attack us we’ll be sure to attack them back,” Ali Chedid, a resident of Dahiyeh, a predominantly Shiite suburb of Beirut and Hezbollah stronghold, told Arab News.




People inspect the damage caused by Israeli bombardment on Hezbollah targets along Israel's. borders with Lebanon. (AFP)

“Hezbollah has been doing a great job of showing restraint so far. It is not a matter of not having enough weaponry or funding to launch a war. Rather it is because we know if we set out to destroy Israel, we also will be destroyed in the process. We never claimed we would remain unscathed.”

For Chedid, the war in Gaza has put Hezbollah in an impossible fix that will be hard for its leaders to navigate if they hope to avoid, at the very least, tarnishing their reputation as champions of the Palestinian cause and the main bulwark against Israel.

“Hezbollah is damned if it attacks because then people will claim it is dragging the country into war for its own interests,” said Chedid. “It is also damned if it doesn’t because it will be accused of being all smoke and mirrors and having left Gazans to suffer alone.”

 


Netanyahu says ICC warrant won’t stop Israel defending itself

Updated 4 sec ago
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Netanyahu says ICC warrant won’t stop Israel defending itself

“No outrageous anti-Israel decision will prevent us — and it will not prevent me — from continuing to defend our country in every way,” Netanyahu said
The premier is accused alongside his former defense minister Yoav Gallant of “war crimes” and “crimes against humanity“

JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that an arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court over his conduct of the Gaza war would not stop him defending Israel.
“No outrageous anti-Israel decision will prevent us — and it will not prevent me — from continuing to defend our country in every way,” Netanyahu said in a video statement. “We will not yield to pressure,” he vowed.
The premier is accused alongside his former defense minister Yoav Gallant of “war crimes” and “crimes against humanity” for Israel’s actions in Gaza.
He described Thursday’s decision as a “dark day in the history of nations.”
“The International Criminal Court in The Hague, which was established to protect humanity, has today become the enemy of humanity,” he said, adding that the accusations were “utterly baseless.”
Israel has been fighting in Gaza since October 2023, when a cross-border attack by Hamas militants resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Its retaliatory campaign has led to the deaths of 44,056 people in Gaza, most of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry which the United Nations considers reliable.
UN agencies have warned of a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza, including possible famine, due to a lack of food and medicines.
The court said it had found “reasonable grounds” to believe Netanyahu and Gallant bore “criminal responsibility” for the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare, as well as the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.
Netanyahu said the court was accusing Israel of “fictitious crimes,” while ignoring “the real war crimes, horrific war crimes being committed against us and against many others around the world.”
In addition to Netanyahu and Gallant, the court also issued an arrest warrant for Hamas military wing chief Mohammed Deif, who Israel said was killed in an air strike last July.
Hamas has never confirmed his death.
Netanyahu mocked the court’s decision to issue a warrant for “the body of Mohammed Deif.”

Italy says would have to arrest Netanyahu after ICC warrant

Updated 27 min 34 sec ago
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Italy says would have to arrest Netanyahu after ICC warrant

  • Crosetto believed the ICC was “wrong” to put Netanyahu and Gallant on the same level as Hamas
  • It was not a political choice but Italy was bound as a member of the ICC to act on the court’s warrants

ROME: Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said Thursday his country would be obliged to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visited, after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant.
The ICC earlier also issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu’s former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, as well as Hamas’s military chief Mohammed Deif.
Crosetto — whose country holds the G7 rotating presidency this year — told RAI television’s Porta a Porta program that he believed the ICC was “wrong” to put Netanyahu and Gallant on the same level as Hamas.
But he said that if Netanyahu or Gallant “were to come to Italy, we would have to arrest them.”
It was not a political choice but Italy was bound as a member of the ICC to act on the court’s warrants, Crosetto said.
Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani had earlier been more cautious, saying: “We support the ICC, while always remembering that the court must play a legal role and not a political role.
“We will evaluate together with our allies what to do and how to interpret this decision.”


Israeli strikes kill 47 people in eastern Lebanon, official says

Updated 21 November 2024
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Israeli strikes kill 47 people in eastern Lebanon, official says

  • Bachir Khodr, governor of Lebanon’s Baalbek-Hermel province, said at least 47 were killed and 22 wounded in Israeli strikes in the Baalbek region
  • In Israel, a 30-year-old man was killed when shrapnel from a rocket struck a playground in the northern town of Nahariya

BEIRUT/JERUSALEM: Israeli strikes killed at least 47 people in eastern Lebanon on Thursday, a Lebanese official said, pressing the campaign against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group as a US mediator sought to advance ceasefire talks in Israel.
US mediator Amos Hochstein, who said a ceasefire was “within our grasp” during a visit to Lebanon on Tuesday, met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz. There were no immediate statements.
Indicating there were still gaps to close, a senior Lebanese official told Reuters that Beirut had sought changes to the US ceasefire proposal, to include ensuring a speedier withdrawal of Israeli forces from south Lebanon.
The diplomacy marks the most serious attempt yet to end the conflict between Israel and the heavily armed, Iran-backed Hezbollah, part of the regional spillover of the Gaza war that erupted more than a year ago.
Bachir Khodr, governor of Lebanon’s Baalbek-Hermel province, said at least 47 were killed and 22 wounded in Israeli strikes in the Baalbek region. Posting on X, he said rescue operations were underway. The region bordering Syria is an area of Lebanon where Shiite Islamist Hezbollah holds sway.
Beirut shook as Israeli airstrikes hit the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs about a dozen times, sending up clouds of debris, in some of the most intense airstrikes yet.
Residents have largely fled the area since Israel went on the offensive against Hezbollah in September.
The Israeli army said its strikes were against Hezbollah infrastructure and that it had mitigated civilian harm through advance warnings and other steps.
In Israel, a 30-year-old man was killed when shrapnel from a rocket struck a playground in the northern town of Nahariya, Israel’s MDA medical service said.
“The Israeli government is not safeguarding my security, my residents or the residents of the north (of Israel). It is not possible to live in such a situation like this,” Nahariya Mayor Ronen Marelly told public broadcaster Kansas
The Israeli military said about 10 rockets were launched from Lebanon toward Nahariya. “Most of the projectiles were intercepted and fallen projectiles were identified,” the military said in a statement.
Channel 12 said three rockets hit the coastal town.
Hezbollah’s Al-Manar television station, citing its correspondent, confirmed rocket fire toward Nahariya and the surrounding area.
White House envoy Hochstein left for Israel after declaring progress in two days of talks in Lebanon with officials including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, endorsed to negotiate by Hezbollah. Speaking before he left Beirut, Hochstein said he was going to Israel to try to close an agreement if possible.

BATTLE OF KHIYAM
The diplomacy aims to end a conflict that has inflicted massive devastation in Lebanon since Israel began its offensive, mounting airstrikes across wide parts of the country and sending troops into the south.
Footage broadcast by Al Jazeera showed thick smoke rising from the town of Khiyam in southern Lebanon, some 6 km (4 miles) from the border, a focal point of ground battles between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli troops.
Israel says its aim is to secure the return home of tens of thousands of people evacuated from its north due to rocket attacks by Hezbollah, which opened fire in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war in October 2023.
Hezbollah, which has suffered major blows since Israel began its offensive in September, has kept up rocket fire into Israel, attacking Tel Aviv this week. Its fighters are battling Israeli troops on the ground in the south.
The casualty toll since Oct. 2023 stands at 3,583 people killed in Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry says, most of them killed during the Israeli offensive since September. The figures do not distinguish between combatants and civilians. The ministry said 25 fatalities were reported on Wednesday.
Hezbollah strikes have killed more than 100 people in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. They include more than 70 soldiers killed in strikes in northern Israel and the Golan Heights and in combat in southern Lebanon, according to Israel.


Amid Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon, airstrikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs

Updated 21 November 2024
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Amid Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon, airstrikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs

  • Lebanon’s official National News Agency reported three raids “within the third round of strikes on the southern suburbs today“
  • AFPTV footage showed columns of smoke rising from the area, usually a densely populated residential district but now largely emptied

BEIRUT: Fierce battles between the Israeli army and Hezbollah erupted in the town of Khiam and on the outskirts of the town of Biyyadah in Lebanon on Thursday.

Israeli resumed intense airstrikes in the morning on Beirut’s southern suburbs and villages in the Baalbek-Hermel governorate, following a pause that coincided with US envoy Amos Hochstein’s 48-hour visit to Beirut before heading to Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah continued its attacks on northern Israel, with rockets reaching Nahariya. According to medics and doctors with Magen David Adom, these attacks “killed a 30-year-old man due to rocket fire.”

Lebanon has been hit by large-scale Israeli attacks since Sept. 23.

Israel has been targeting Hezbollah headquarters, civilian homes in southern villages, pursuing displaced persons to their new locations, and destroying entire neighborhoods in Beirut’s southern suburbs, the southern border region, towns deep in the south, and villages in Baalbek-Hermel.

The attacks have also struck Beirut multiple times. The total death toll since the start of the confrontations has surpassed 3,520, with 14,940 injured.

The clashes in the south have been concentrated between the town of Chamaa and the coastal town of Biyyadah, following the capture of Chamaa.

Hezbollah said that its members “repelled a new Israeli force’s advance attempt at the southern outskirts of Chamaa toward Biyyadah.”

A fierce battle also raged in Khiam, amid reports on Wednesday night suggesting that the town had fallen to the Israeli army. However, Hezbollah reported “ongoing battles on four fronts, employing all types of weapons.”

Security reports indicated that the Israeli army “is conducting large-scale demolitions in Khiam, blowing up houses and residential buildings during its incursion into the town.”

Controlling Khiam is significant, as it is a strategic city located on top of the Al-Hamames Hill, 500 meters above sea level. Khiam is also one of the biggest cities in southern Lebanon in area, which allows the Israeli army to oversee northern Israel on one side and the Golan Heights on the other.

An Israeli raid on the Khardali road, which connects Nabatieh to Marjaayoun and is considered a Hezbollah supply road, blocked it completely.

Meanwhile, Israeli warplanes carried out destructive aerial strikes in stages against Beirut’s southern suburbs on Thursday morning.

The strikes were preceded by a series of evacuation warnings issued to the residents of Ghobeiri, Hadath, Haret Hreik, Bir Abed and Kafaat.

The raids destroyed a significant number of residential buildings and commercial shops. They also reached a building adjacent to a special needs school in Kafaat.

The Israeli army claimed that it “targeted Hezbollah command headquarters and infrastructure in Beirut’s southern suburbs.”

Raids on Younin, northern Bekaa, killed at least four people after they targeted an inhabited house without prior warning.

The Israeli raids included Brital, Makneh, Nahleh, Chaat in the Anti-Lebanon mountains, and Bouday in the western mountain range.

Dozens of citizens received mysterious calls on Wednesday night instructing them to evacuate their homes in Beirut’s neighborhoods and Mount Lebanon, including Mazraat Yachouh in Metn, where there is no Hezbollah presence.

The calls caused confusion, as residents of entire neighborhoods waited on the streets for officials confirmations. The calls were seen as “part of a psychological warfare.”

On the eve of Lebanon’s 81st Independence Day, army chief Joseph Aoun said that “Lebanon will always revolt against its enemies and those who mess with its safety and sovereignty, notably the Israeli enemy.”

Aoun said that the anniversary came amid a destructive and brutal war waged by the Israeli enemy for more than a year, resulting in thousands being wounded, and the displacement of people from their villages and towns in the south, the Bekaa and Beirut.

“As the enemy persists in its daily violations and aggressions, efforts are intensifying to reach a ceasefire that would bring calm to our country, paving the way for the return of our people in the south to their land and the rest of the displaced to their homes.”

Aoun said that the army was “still deployed in the south, where soldiers make sacrifices and give their lives for Lebanon. We will not abandon it because it is an integral part of national sovereignty, and it operates in coordination with UNIFIL under the framework of Resolution 1701. The army also stands by its people and citizens, fulfilling its national duty and continuing its missions despite challenges and dangers.”

He said that “there is no turning back, and there is no fear for the army, which will remain steadfast by the side of the Lebanese despite all circumstances, protecting Lebanon and defending its security, stability and sovereignty. The army will continue to embrace all Lebanese from different backgrounds, standing equally by each one of them.”


Libya’s Derna hosts theater festival year after flash flood

Updated 21 November 2024
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Libya’s Derna hosts theater festival year after flash flood

  • Nizar Al-Aned, artistic director of the Derna Festival, said organizers had “insisted that the festival take place, even if the theater is still under construction” to rebuild it
  • Tunisian comedian Abir Smiti said it was her first time at the event

DERNA, Libya: A year after a flash flood ripped through Derna and killed thousands of people, the coastal Libyan city is hosting a theater festival with a message of hope.
The city in the war-torn country’s east is still reeling from the flooding that destroyed historic buildings, including Libya’s oldest theater where the festival was held in previous years.
Nizar Al-Aned, artistic director of the Derna Festival, said organizers had “insisted that the festival take place, even if the theater is still under construction” to rebuild it.
Now, back after a pause due to the September 2023 floods, the festival’s sixth edition is being held this week under the slogan: “Derna is back, Derna is hope.”
With five theater troupes from Libya, and one each from neighboring Egypt and Tunisia, the event has drawn artists, comedians and visitors from across the Arab world.
Tunisian comedian Abir Smiti said it was her first time at the event.
“To me, Derna is a discovery,” she told AFP.
“When you just arrive, you can feel the pain, but at the same time there’s joy. You can feel how everyone has hope.”
Once home to about 120,000 inhabitants, the wall of water that swept through Derna last year killed nearly 4,000 people, left thousands missing and displaced more than 40,000 others, according to the United Nations.
It was the result of extreme rainfall from hurricane-strength Storm Daniel, which had caused two dams to burst inland from the city that lies some 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) east of the capital Tripoli.
Libya is still grappling with the aftermath of the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled long-time dictator Muammar Qaddafi.
The chaos that ensued saw the rise of jihadist movements, with Derna coming under the control of Al-Qaeda and later the Daesh group before they were chased out by 2018.
The North African country remains split between two rival administrations.
The divisions have complicated the emergency response and reconstruction efforts.
Derna is under the eastern administration backed by military strongman Khalifa Haftar, whose son Belgacem Haftar has been the figurehead for reconstruction in the city.
At the theater festival, jury member Hanane Chouehidi told AFP that “despite the drama, the deaths and the destruction,” she was confident Derna could be rebuilt.
“Derna deserves to be beautiful, just as its residents deserve to be happy,” she said.