Pak-US ties and the letter that finally arrived

Less than a month after Shehbaz Sharif was sworn in as the 24th Prime Minister of Pakistan, he received a letter from US President Joe Biden which immediately became a subject of newspaper headlines and TV talk shows in Pakistan. Beginning the letter with ‘Dear Mr. Prime Minister’ was significant as it indicated that the US administration recognized the new government in Pakistan despite the contention of some parties. The letter was also extraordinary because there was no such exchange of pleasantries with President Biden during the two previous governments including Imran Khan’s which lasted for about four years and the other led by Shehbaz Sharif himself which had replaced Khan’s government.

During all this time, there were speculations about the lack of direct communication at the top level although Khan, a cricket hero turned politician, had earlier undertaken an official visit to the US at the invitation of President Donald Trump.

The second reason which made Biden’s letter extraordinary is that relations between the two governments considerably soured toward the end of Khan’s rule when he publicly accused the US government for conspiring to remove him as Prime Minister.

The cordial language in Biden’s letter also indicated that the bad patch in relations between the two countries was behind them and they were ready to advance their ‘shared vision for a future of greater health security, economic growth and access to education for all’ as mentioned in the letter. The most significant part of the letter stated that the ‘United States will continue to stand with Pakistan to tackle the most pressing global and regional challenges of our time.’

In the current situation when Pakistan needs foreign exchange more than ever in its history, the significance of the US as a net-positive trading partner is even more pronounced.

Ahmed Bilal Mehboob

In the past 77 years since the independence of Pakistan, there have been several ups and downs in Pak-US relations but the two countries continued their engagement in several spheres including the economy, security, geo-politics and the most important for Pakistan, bilateral trade. The US is the largest importer of Pakistani goods and services which amounts to over 21 percent of Pakistan’s total exports with the balance of trade in Pakistan’s favor. Compared to this, Pakistani exports to China constitute only 10 percent of its total exports with a huge balance in favor of China which means that Pakistan is not a net earner of foreign currency in this trade. In the current situation when Pakistan needs foreign exchange more than ever in its history, the significance of the US as a net-positive trading partner is even more pronounced. The US influence in international institutions like the IMF is also of great importance to Pakistan given its increasing reliance on the continuous flow of funds from IMF.

The exchange of letters between the US President and Pakistani PM opens a new window of opportunity to repair the damage done in the recent past to bilateral relations. There are, however, three key challenges which require a great amount of diplomatic astuteness on the part of Pakistan to steer the bilateral relationship away from possible irritants.

First, in the background of escalating rivalry between US and China, balancing Pakistan’s close relationship with China against its equally vital ties with the US will continue to require a high degree of diplomatic skill and continuous engagement.

Second, despite the fact that Ukraine has been invaded and its sovereignty brazenly violated – a situation faced by Pakistan too in the past — which should have made Pakistan more sympathetic to Ukraine, Pakistan has repeatedly abstained in the UN General Assembly during voting on the on-going conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This ‘neutrality’ may also strain relations with not only the US but also the UK and EU and, therefore, will need to be managed.

Third, Pakistan has a sizeable diaspora of around four million in the US which until recently has been a great strength for Pakistan-US relations and tried to influence their respective congressmen in favor of Pakistan but lately Pakistan’s domestic political divide has started affecting Pakistani-Americans too. Many of them have pleaded for holding the post-Khan government accountable. The government of Pakistan will need to engage with the Pakistani diaspora in the US and address their concerns so that Pak-US relations are not negatively impacted.

- Ahmed Bilal Mehboob is the president of Pakistan-based think tank, PILDAT.