Is making Kabul an enemy in Pakistan’s strategic interest?

On December 24, the Pakistani military targeted what it claimed was a hideout of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) with airstrikes in the border province of Paktia, Afghanistan, killing nearly 71 people. The Afghan government, however, has stated that the majority of those killed were civilians, mostly women and children.

Pakistan asserts that the TTP uses its bases in Afghanistan to launch attacks inside Pakistan.

In retaliation, a few days after the Paktia airstrike, the Afghan Taliban claimed to have attacked several points near the Durand Line (the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan), asserting that they had killed 19 Pakistani soldiers. This claim was made in a post by the Ministry of Defense in Kabul on X.

Some semblance of calm has emerged since then, but how long until both sides prepare for further escalation? Will we witness a major fallout on the western border?

In response to the recent TTP attacks in Pakistan, the state adopted a two-pronged approach: First, by applying internal pressure to “send a message” without triggering serious escalation; and second, by creating just enough tension to create an opportunity for talks with the Afghan Taliban leadership on the TTP issue.

If caution is not exercised, both sides may find themselves heading toward bloodshed sooner than expected.

Naila Mahsud

On the other hand, the Afghan side is managing Pakistan’s concerns about the TTP by playing the role of a mediator between Pakistan and the TTP, while simultaneously rejecting Pakistan’s claims that the TTP carries out attacks from Afghan soil.

For decades, Pakistan had influence over the Afghan Taliban. However, since the Taliban returned to power in Kabul in 2022, circumstances have changed significantly. Islamabad has maintained a relatively stable relationship with the Haqqani Network, a faction of the Taliban, but this group is reportedly at odds with the Kandahari faction, which is led by Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of the Afghan Taliban.

Pakistani attacks on Afghanistan have stirred nationalist sentiment within the Afghan population, which, until recently, had been largely indifferent to the Taliban leadership. This shift in public opinion not only affects decision-making on both sides but also influences international perceptions of the Pakistani military, already tarnished by internal instability and criticism from human rights organizations.

People in Afghanistan have protested the Paktia airstrike, demanding that the international community impose economic sanctions on Islamabad, accusing it of killing innocent civilians. Pakistan cannot— and must not— rely on old patterns where it had leverage over US Central Asian policy due to its strategic proximity to Afghanistan. With the US largely absent from the region, Pakistan is unlikely to receive the same level of support, even from regional states. This is particularly true given India’s increasing ties with the Afghan government, which presents a strategic challenge for Pakistan.

If caution is not exercised, both sides may find themselves heading toward bloodshed sooner than expected. Afghanistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Abbas Muhammad Stanikzai, recently remarked that Pakistan must not act arrogantly and undermine its western neighbor. He emphasized that “Afghanistan has fighters who act like atomic bombs.” In response, the Pakistani Prime Minister equated the Paktia attacks with acts of heroism and vowed to “crush the TTP.” With heated rhetoric on both sides, it seems the spark of “brotherly relations” between the two countries has significantly diminished.

With much to lose and little to fall back on, Pakistan must exercise caution and prioritize its strategic interests over short-term threats. Creating an enemy on the western border and allowing Afghanistan to reach out to regional players would represent a significant loss of Pakistan’s decades-long investment in the region. This would be a real setback— ignoring these realities would be a failure in both strategic foresight and political vision.

The Afghan government, on the other hand, must not evade its responsibilities. It must tackle the TTP issue vigilantly and prove to its people, its neighbor Pakistan, and the international community that it has the capacity to govern effectively as a responsible state, rather than an armed group.

– Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues. X: @MahsudNaila