WASHINGTON: Iran’s attack on Israel gives Joe Biden a familiar dilemma, but on steroids — how to balance support for a difficult ally while preventing the nightmare scenario of a wider war?
Tensions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s war on Gaza were papered over as the US president offered “ironclad” support, including shooting down Iranian drones.
But the White House said it would not support an Israeli counterattack and warned Israel to “think carefully” about escalation that could trigger a full-blown regional conflict.
The question then for Biden, who is facing a tough reelection battle against Donald Trump in November, is what if Netanyahu goes ahead anyway, as he has done in Gaza?
“It puts him in a very tough spot” Colin Clarke, Director of Research at the Soufan Group, told AFP.
“I think he’s suspicious of Netanyahu’s motives here... that Netanyahu is attempting to broaden the war throughout the region to deflect from how poorly the war is going for him in Gaza.”
Biden has been trying to avoid a regional war that could suck the United States back into the Middle East ever since Hamas’s October 7 attack and Israel’s offensive on the Gaza Strip.
The 81-year-old has, however, struggled to use the leverage provided by the United States being Israel’s main military supplier, especially given a long history of tense relations with Netanyahu.
Biden has been increasingly critical of the death toll in the Palestinian territory and even went as far as suggesting the US could limit military aid, but so far to little effect.
Iran’s attack has seen Biden go back to showing overt support — but at the same time scrambling to stop the crisis spiraling.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Netanyahu was “well aware” that Biden did not want a “wider war.”
Biden himself warned Netanyahu of the potential dangers in a call on Saturday night at a time of “heightened emotion.”
“The president had a discussion about trying to slow things down, think through things,” a US official said.
The hope was that “in the light of day” Israel would see it had had a “spectacular success” against Iran’s attack, added the official.
Washington’s calculus looks to be that Iran also got what it wanted, with a show of force in retaliation for Israel’s strike in Damascus earlier this month that killed a key Iranian general, but with minimal damage.
“However, I fear the status quo will be short-lived,” said James Ryan, Executive Director of the Middle East Research and Information Project, warning of a “dangerous spiral.”
“I expect Biden to attempt to restrain Israeli responses, but Netanyahu has already shown a willingness to test any kind of limit Biden wishes to impose,” he added.
“It’s all very cynical now, unfortunately.”
Biden’s options for restraining Israel are likely to be limited at this stage to tough language in private and making threats in public.
“They’ve got themselves into a corner in many ways,” said Clarke.
“I think they’ve overplayed their hand a little bit by saying the administration is considering cutting off weapons to the Israelis. It’s never going to happen — I think it’s an empty threat, especially in an election year.”
The US presidential election in November comes as Biden faces domestic political pressure on all sides when it comes to Israel.
Trump has led a chorus of Republicans accusing Biden of being weak on the issue — while young and left-wing voters in particular are angered by his failure to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.
Netanyahu, facing his own political and legal issues at home, would now be able to use the Iran attacks to “paper over the very real rifts that exist” with Washington on Gaza, said Clarke.
“If he can drag this out until November, he’s hoping for a Trump victory” when he would have “carte blanche” to act however he wanted in the region, said Clarke.
Another possibility, however, is that Netanyahu may decide to “accede to American urgings” for now on Iran — but with a cost, said Paul Salem, President and CEO of the Middle East Institute.
“Politically, I think they can cash in on saying, ‘okay, America, we won’t do anything, we’re being good. But in exchange, you have to, you know, give us more of a free hand in Gaza,’” he said.
Biden in ‘very tough spot’ trying to stop Middle East escalation
https://arab.news/2yf4n
Biden in ‘very tough spot’ trying to stop Middle East escalation
- Biden has been trying to avoid a regional war that could suck the United States back into the Middle East ever since Hamas’s October 7 attack
US restricts food, metal imports on Uyghur forced labor concerns
- Goods wholly or partially made by the sanctioned firms will be restricted from entering the US, says the Department of Homeland Security
- China is accused of incarcerating over 1 million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, although officials strongly deny this
WASHINGTON: The United States said Friday that it is barring imports from dozens more China-based companies — ranging from businesses in the metals to food industries — citing worries over forced labor.
Officials are adding around 30 entities to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act entity list, meaning that goods wholly or partially made by these firms will be restricted from entering the United States.
The new additions bring the total number on the list to 107, said the Department of Homeland Security.
The reason is that the companies were found to either source materials from China’s northwestern Xinjiang region or work with its local government “to recruit, transfer, and receive workers, including Uyghurs, out of Xinjiang,” said the US Trade Representative’s office.
Beijing has been accused of incarcerating over one million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in a network of detention facilities in Xinjiang, although officials strongly deny this.
The newly-targeted companies make goods ranging from agricultural to aluminum products, along with polysilicon materials.
They also mine and process metals like copper, gold and nickel, the USTR statement added.
Among them are companies tied to Chinese electric vehicle battery manufacturer CATL and China-linked Gotion too, a bipartisan US congressional committee noted on Friday.
Earlier this year, the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party and others flagged CATL and Gotion’s ties to two businesses, Xinjiang Nonferrous and Xinjiang Joinworld.
Both were included in the latest update.
The committee’s chairman John Moolenaar and other lawmakers released a statement saying: “While we are pleased with this initial step, we remain concerned that CATL and Gotion’s supply chains are deeply tied to the Xinjiang region.”
The rule comes into effect on November 25.
“Companies should not secure unfair advantages by exploiting workers,” said US Trade Representative Katherine Tai.
“We will enforce our laws to address forced labor and prevent companies that violate workers’ rights from benefiting from the US market,” she added in a statement.
The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act was signed into law in 2021.
Trump plans to assemble investigative teams to look into 2020 election, Washington Post reports
WASHINGTON: US President-elect Donald Trump plans to assemble investigative teams at the Department of Justice to search for evidence in battleground states that fraud tainted the 2020 election, the Washington Post reported on Friday, citing a source.
Trump, who won the 2024 election but lost the 2020 election to President Joe Biden, has falsely claimed that he lost the 2020 election due to extensive voter fraud, a view shared by millions of his supporters.
Trump was indicted last year on federal charges for his attempts to overturn the election. The charges stemmed from an investigation by Special Counsel Jack Smith.
The Washington Post, citing two people close to Trump’s transition team, reported that Trump plans to fire the entire team that worked with Smith.
Dutch court weighs a lawsuit against arms sales to Israel
- Opening the case at the court in The Hague, Judge Sonja Hoekstra noted: “It is important to underline that the Dutch State does not contest the gravity of the situation in Gaza, nor is the status of the West Bank”
THE HAGUE: Pro-Palestinian groups took the Dutch state to court on Friday, urging a halt to arms exports to Israel and accusing the government of failing to prevent what they termed a genocide in Gaza.
The NGOs argued that Israel is breaking international law in Gaza and the West Bank, invoking, among others, the 1948 UN Genocide Convention.
“Israel is guilty of genocide and apartheid” and “is using Dutch weapons to wage war,” said Wout Albers, a lawyer representing the NGOs.
“Dutch weapons are killing children every day in Palestine, including my family,” said Ahmed Abofoul, a legal adviser to Al-Haq, one of the groups involved in the suit. Israel furiously denies accusations of genocide as it presses on with the offensive in Gaza.
Opening the case at the court in The Hague, Judge Sonja Hoekstra noted: “It is important to underline that the Dutch State does not contest the gravity of the situation in Gaza, nor is the status of the West Bank.”
“Today is about finding out what is legally in play and what can be expected of the state if the state can be expected to do more or act differently than it is currently acting,” she added.
She acknowledged this was a “sensitive case,” saying: “It’s a whole legal debate.”
The lawyer for the Dutch State, Reimer Veldhuis, said the Netherlands has been applying European laws in force for arms exports.
Veldhuis argued the case should be tossed out.
“It is unlikely that the minister responsible will grant an arms export license to Israel that would contribute to the Israeli army’s activities in Gaza or the West Bank,” said Veldhuis.
The case comes one day after another court based in The Hague, the International Criminal Court, issued arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister and former defense minister.
How COP29 outcome may impact countries most affected by climate change
- UN Climate Change Conference in Baku brought together policymakers, researchers and environmentalists from 200 countries
- Discussions covered energy transition, climate finance, loss and damage funding and environmental cost of geopolitical tensions
BAKU, Azerbaijan: The 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference concluded in the capital of Azerbaijan on Friday with climate activists, world leaders and investors reflecting on climate change’s global impacts and the urgent need for actionable solutions.
This year’s event emphasized financing mechanisms, particularly to alleviate the suffering of vulnerable nations, and especially the developing countries most affected by climate change.
COP29 — the 29th Conference of the Parties under the United Nations climate organization UNFCCC — ran from Nov. 11 to 22 and brought together policymakers, researchers, and environmentalists from 200 countries.
A dominant theme was energy transition, as fossil fuel emissions remain the biggest driver of global warming.
The UN reports that burning coal, oil, and gas accounts for more than 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and roughly 90 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions.
Policymakers argued that reducing reliance on traditional fuels and adopting modern energy solutions could significantly shrink the global carbon footprint and bring the world closer to net-zero targets.
The University of Exeter’s Global Carbon Budget recently projected total CO2 emissions to rise from 40.6 billion metric tons in 2023 to 41.6 billion in 2024.
Sharing his perspective on the COP29 negotiations and the change he hopes to see, climate activist Philip McMaster, known on social media as SustainaClaus, told Arab News he is campaigning for a a healthier environment for children.
“The message of SustainaClaus is ‘Make childhood great again.’ Why? Because we all had a childhood before,” he said on the sidelines of the conference. “It was either great or not, but it was a very important period of time, and that is what these negotiations should be about: how we make the world a better place for the next generations.”
He added: “I hope to see global change.”
DID YOUKNOW?
• In the first week of COP29, as a step to foster sustainable energy, Saudi Arabia signed an executive program with Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan to strengthen collaboration on renewable energy development.
• The COP29 agenda included energy transition, finance, urbanization and Article 6.
• Climate finance was the main topic discussed in Baku, along with the need to raise funds for vulnerable nations.
Military activity also emerged as a significant environmental threat. Olga Lermak, communications lead at Greencubator, a Ukraine-based cleantech accelerator, noted the ecological devastation caused by war.
“War creates a climate crisis not just where it happens; it pollutes air, water, and land,” she said.
Ukraine accounts for 35 percent of Europe’s biodiversity, including 70,000 plant and animal species, according to the World Wide Fund for Nature. Among its endangered animals are the sandy blind mole-rat, the Russian desman, and the saker falcon.
The country’s ongoing conflict with Russia has caused significant damage to that biodiversity, according to Lermak.
“I hope that the negotiations held here bring great solutions, something that will help us to move forward,” she said. “I hope it is not just conversations, not just talking, but real action after this.”
Opinion
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Another key issue debated at COP29 was loss and damage funding — addressing “unavoided” damage caused by climate change in the most vulnerable countries as well as “unavoidable” damage such as that caused by rising sea levels. Investment in emissions reduction was one of the key solutions put forward for dealing with unavoided damage.
Researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change estimate that the loss and damage needs of vulnerable countries will amount to between $130 billion and $940 billion in 2025 alone.
Gloria Bulus, team lead at Nigeria’s Bridge that Gap Initiative, emphasized that beyond highlighting loss and damage, there must also be a focus on delivering investment and implementing concrete solutions.
“We are expecting a lot to be (invested) in terms of the loss and damage, so that it goes beyond the speeches,” she said.
Highlighting some of the pressing environmental challenges her country is facing, Bulus expressed her hope for “fair” negotiations.
“Negotiations have been very slow for us,” she said. “What we want is action. What we want is an outcome that favors people, where we have renewable energy transition.”
Among other steps, COP29 promised to secure “the highest ambition outcome possible,” proposing that wealthier countries contribute $250 billion annually to developing nations to support their efforts in tackling climate change.
UK car wash owners trafficked thousands of people from Middle East to Europe
- Migrants from Syria, Iraq, Iran offered different tiers of service
- Dilshad Shamo and Ali Khdir trafficked 100 people per week in trucks, ships and by plane
LONDON: Thousands of people from the Middle East were trafficked into Europe through a vast people smuggling network based out of a British car wash.
In an operation that at times resembled a travel agency, people from Syria, Iraq and Iran were offered different tiers of service to be smuggled into Europe by various routes.
Two men pleaded guilty in a UK court on Friday to charges related to their roles in the people smuggling ring.
The UK’s National Crime Agency said Dilshad Shamo, 41, and Ali Khdir, 40, operated from the unlikely location of a car wash in Caerphilly, a town in Wales.
They were arrested in April 2023 after they had been placed under surveillance as part of an investigation that found they were trafficking about 100 people a week over a period of two years, the BBC reported.
The men used messaging and social media apps to advertise their services with videos from people who had made the journeys.
One video shows a man hidden in the back of a truck with other migrants.
“Lorry route agreement, crossing agreement with the knowledge of driver,” he says. “Here we have men, women and children. Thank God the route was easy and good.”
Another video shows a family traveling by plane. “We are very happy … this is the visa, may God bless him, we are really happy,” the migrant says.
Shamo and Khdir offered three tiers of service, the lowest being smuggling people into Europe by foot or vehicle; the next by cargo ships or yachts; and the highest level arranged travel by plane.
The smuggling routes went through Turkiye, Belarus, Moldova and Bosnia and ended in Italy, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Germany and France. The NCA said many of the migrants continued to the UK.
Payment was made using informal “hawala” money transfers through brokers based in Iraq and Istanbul.
Once a deposit was made, Shamo and Khdir would receive a message and arrange for the migrants to be transported by their specified route or timeframe. The two men used WhatsApp to communicate with people smugglers across Europe.
The NCA said they were part of a larger organized crime group and could have made hundreds of thousands or millions of pounds that is unlikely to be recovered, the BBC reported.
“Ali Khdir and Dilshad Shamo were leading a double life,” NCA Branch Commander Derek Evans said. “While on the surface they seemed to be operating a successful car wash, they were actually part of a prolific people smuggling group moving migrants across Europe and taking thousands in payment.
“We worked painstakingly to piece together their movements to prove their important roles in a group, from advertising their services through videos to boasting of successful trips on messaging groups.”
The UK’s Minister for Border Security and Asylum Angela Eagle said criminals like Khdir and Shamo put countless lives at risk by smuggling vulnerable people in a “shameless attempt to make cash.”
She added: “We are taking action against the people smuggling gangs and will stop at nothing to dismantle their networks and bring justice to the system.”
Shamo and Khdir pleaded guilty 10 days into their trial at Cardiff Crown Court and will be sentenced at a later date.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer made smashing people smuggling gangs a key pledge of his election campaign earlier this year.
He has vowed to treat traffickers like terrorists and announced a new Border Security Command with additional powers to track human traffickers and shut down their bank accounts.
Politicians in the EU are battling to stem public anger at rising immigration with more than 380,000 illegal border crossings made into the EU in 2023.
Many fear that if conflicts in the Middle East escalate, Europe could face a steep rise in illegal migration similar to 2015 at the height of the Syrian Civil War.
