PARIS: Floods have been tearing a path of destruction across the globe, hammering Kenya, submerging Dubai, and forcing hundreds of thousands of people from Russia to China, Brazil and Somalia from their homes.
Though not all directly attributed to global warming, they are occurring in a year of record-breaking temperatures and underscore what scientists have long warned – that climate change drives more extreme weather.
Climate change isn’t just about rising temperatures but the knock-on effect of all that extra heat being trapped in the atmosphere and seas.
April was the 11th consecutive month to break its own heat record, the EU climate monitor Copernicus said on Wednesday, while ocean temperatures have been off the charts for even longer.
“The recent extreme precipitation events are consistent with what is expected in an increasingly warmer climate,” Sonia Seneviratne, an expert on the UN-mandated IPCC scientific panel, told AFP.
Warmer oceans mean greater evaporation, and warmer air can hold more water vapor.
Scientists even have a calculation for this: for every one degree Celsius in temperature rise, the atmosphere can hold seven percent more moisture.
“This results in more intense rainfall events,” Davide Faranda, an expert on extreme weather at the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), told AFP.
In April, Pakistan recorded double the amount of normal monthly rainfall — one province saw 437 percent more than average — while the UAE received about two years’ worth of rain in a single day.
This, however, doesn’t mean everywhere on Earth is getting wetter.
Richard Allan from the University of Reading said “a warmer, thirstier atmosphere is more effective at sapping moisture from one region and feeding this excess water into storms elsewhere.”
This translates into extreme rain and floods in some areas but worse heatwaves and droughts in others, the climate scientist told AFP.
Natural climate variability also influences weather and global rainfall patterns.
This includes cyclical phenomenon like El Nino, which tends to bring heat and rain extremes, and helped fuel the high temperatures seen over land and sea this past year.
While natural variability plays a role “the observed long-term global increase in heavy precipitation has been driven by human-induced climate change,” said Seneviratne.
Carlo Buontempo, a director at Copernicus, said cycles like El Nino ebb and flow but the extra heat trapped by rising greenhouse gas emissions would “keep pushing the global temperature toward new records.”
Considering the overlapping forces at play, attributing any one flood to climate change alone can be fraught, and each event must be taken on a case-by-case basis.
But scientists have developed peer-reviewed methods that allow for the quick comparison of an event today against simulations that consider a world in which global warming had not occurred.
For example, World Weather Attribution, the scientists who pioneered this approach, said the drenching of the UAE and Oman last month was “most likely” exacerbated by global warming caused by burning fossil fuels.
ClimaMeter, another rapid assessment network who use a different methodology, said major floods in China in April were “likely influenced” by global warming and El Nino.
“It can be difficult to disentangle global warming and natural variability” and some weather events are more clear-cut than others, said Flavio Pons, a climatologist who worked on the China assessment.
In the case of devastating floods in Brazil, however, ClimaMeter were able to exclude El Nino as a significant factor and name human-driven climate change as the primary culprit.
Many of the countries swamped by heavy floods at the moment — such as Burundi, Afghanistan and Somalia — rank among the poorest and least able to mobilize a response to such disasters.
But the experience in Dubai showed even wealthy states were not prepared, said Seneviratne.
“We know that a warmer climate is conducive to more severe weather extremes but we cannot predict exactly when and where these extremes will occur,” Joel Hirschi from the UK’s National Oceanography Center told AFP.
“Current levels of preparedness for weather extremes are inadequate... Preparing and investing now is cheaper than delaying action.”
Scientists link intense rainfall to climate change after floods in Pakistan, UAE
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Scientists link intense rainfall to climate change after floods in Pakistan, UAE
- Climate experts say warmer oceans lead to greater evaporation and warmer air can hold more water vapor
- Pakistan recorded double the amount of rainfall in April, while UAE received two years of rain in a single day
Islamabad denies as India says military stations attacked by drones and missiles
- Sirens sounded and red flashes and projectiles erupted in the night sky above Jammu for about 2-1/2 hours
- Islamabad says accusations “entirely unfounded, politically motivated, part of reckless propaganda campaign“
JAMMU/ ISLAMABAD: Blasts rang out across the Indian city of Jammu late on Thursday during what the government said was a Pakistani drone and missile attack on military stations around the Kashmir region on the second day of clashes between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
Sirens sounded and red flashes and projectiles erupted in the night sky above Jammu for about 2-1/2 hours, a Reuters journalist said, in what appeared to be an escalation in the countries’ worst confrontation in more than two decades.
Two days of fighting have killed nearly four dozen people.
“Military stations at Jammu, Pathankot & Udhampur were targeted by Pakistani-origin drones and missiles along the international border in J&K today,” India’s Ministry of Defense said on X, citing places in and near the federal territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
“The threats were swiftly neutralized .... No casualties or material losses were reported.”
Indian TV channels also showed flares and flashes in the sky above Jaisalmer city in Rajasthan state, which shares a border with the southern Pakistani province of Sindh.
In a statement, Islamabad denied attacking Pathankot in India’s Punjab state, Srinagar in the Kashmir Valley and Jaisalmer and said the accusations were “entirely unfounded, politically motivated, and part of a reckless propaganda campaign aimed at maligning Pakistan.”
Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the country would respond to any escalation “with full resolve and determination to safeguard Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Electricity in Jammu was slowly being restored after a blackout during the attack, a Reuters journalist said.
Eight missiles, fired from Pakistan at the Jammu region towns of Satwari, Samba, Ranbir Singh Pura and Arnia, were intercepted by air defense units, added an Indian military source who asked not to be named.
They were part of a wider attack, the source added.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif earlier said further retaliation was “increasingly certain” after both countries accused each other of launching drone attacks.
World powers from the US to Russia and China have called for calm in one of the world’s most dangerous and populated nuclear flashpoint regions. The US Consulate General in Pakistan’s Lahore ordered staff to shelter in place.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for de-escalation in separate calls with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday, the State Department said.
The relationship between India and Pakistan has been fraught with tension since they gained independence from colonial Britain in 1947. The countries have fought three wars, two of them over Kashmir, and clashed many times.
The neighbors, which both claim Kashmir in full and rule over parts of it, separately acquired nuclear weapons in the 1990s.
DRONES, MISSILES, AIR DEFENCES
In the latest confrontations, India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites in Pakistan on Wednesday in retaliation for what it says was a deadly Islamabad-backed attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22.
Pakistan says it was not involved and denied that any of the sites hit by India were militant bases. It said it shot down five Indian aircraft on Wednesday.
Pakistan’s military said earlier on Thursday it shot down 29 drones from India at multiple locations including the two largest cities of Karachi and Lahore and the garrison city of Rawalpindi, home to the army’s headquarters.
The Indian defense ministry said Pakistan attempted to engage a number of military targets in northern and western India from Wednesday night into Thursday morning and they were “neutralized” by Indian air defense systems.
In response, Indian forces targeted air defense radars and systems at a number of locations in Pakistan on Thursday, the ministry said.
Before trading ended, both countries saw their stocks, bonds and currencies decline, and Pakistan’s benchmark share index closed down 5.9 percent.
Local media reported panic buying in some cities in the Indian state of Punjab, which shares a border with Pakistan, as people hoarded essentials.
US secretary of state Rubio urges Islamabad and New Delhi to step back
- Marco Rubio holds separate phone calls with Pakistani PM and Indian external affairs minister
- Urges Pakistan and India to improve communications, engage in “direct dialogue” to de-escalate
ISLAMABAD: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday held separate telephone calls with Pakistan’s premier and the external affairs minister of India and urged the two nations to engage in “direct dialogue” to de-escalate their ongoing conflict, the state department said.
India hit Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, called Azad Kashmir, with missiles on Wednesday and Pakistan said it shot down five Indian aircraft in retaliation in their worst clash in over two decades. Pakistan said 31 civilians were killed in the Indian strikes while New Delhi says it targeted “terror camps.”
On Thursday, Pakistan said it had shot down 29 drones launched by India while New Delhi said it had “neutralized” Islamabad’s attempts to target military targets with drones and missiles.
“He expressed US support for direct dialogue between India and Pakistan and encouraged continued efforts to improve communications,” the state department said in two separate statements after Rubio spoke to Pakistani Premier Shehbaz Sharif and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.
“The Secretary emphasized the need for immediate de-escalation.”
India is an important US partner for Washington, which aims to counter China’s rising influence, while Pakistan remains an ally, despite its diminished importance after the US withdrawal from neighboring Afghanistan in 2021.
Both India and Pakistan claim Muslim-majority Kashmir in full, with each controlling only part and having fought wars in the past over the region.
The latest standoff was triggered by an April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan, which has denied the claims and called for a neutral investigation.
Pakistan’s Chinese-made jet brought down two Indian fighter aircraft — US officials
- Performance of leading Chinese fighter jet against Western rival is being closely watched in Washington
- Episode may offer insights into how Beijing might fare in any showdown over Taiwan or the wider Indo-Pacific
ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON: A top Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft on Wednesday, two US officials told Reuters, marking a major milestone for Beijing’s advanced fighter jet.
The performance of a leading Chinese fighter jet against a Western rival is being closely watched in Washington for insights into how Beijing might fare in any showdown over Taiwan or the wider Indo-Pacific.
One US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets — bringing down at least two.
Another official said at least one Indian jet that was shot down was a French-made Rafale fighter aircraft.
Both officials said Pakistan’s F-16 aircraft, made by Lockheed Martin, were not used in the shootdown.
Delhi has not acknowledged the loss of any of its planes and instead said it carried out successful strikes against what it said was “terrorist” infrastructure inside Pakistan.
World powers from the US to Russia and China have called for calm in one of the world’s most dangerous, and most populated, nuclear flashpoint regions.
In France, Rafale manufacturer Dassault Aviation and the MBDA consortium, which makes the Meteor air-to-air missile, could not immediately be reached for comment on a public holiday.
While Reuters reported on Wednesday that three Indian planes went down, citing local government officials in India, this marks the first Western confirmation that Pakistan’s Chinese-made jets were used in the shootdowns.
Pakistan’s Defense minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, told Reuters on Thursday that the J-10 was used to shoot down three French-made Rafale planes, which were newly acquired by India.
Pakistan says it downed five Indian planes in air-to-air combat.
Indian villagers near Pakistan border call for ceasefire as shelling kills at least 13
- The shelling damaged several religious sites, including a temple, a Sikh shrine and a mosque
- Statement released by India said dead include three women, five children killed in “Pakistani firing”
Poonch, Indian-administered Kashmir: Indian villagers called for a ceasefire on Thursday after at least 13 civilians were killed by what authorities said was Pakistani shelling in Poonch, along the India-Pakistan border, in Jammu and Kashmir.
The shelling damaged several religious sites, including a temple, a Sikh shrine, and a mosque.
“We appeal to the government that there should be a ceasefire as soon as possible. There should be peace and harmony,” said a villager Malkeet Singh.
A statement released by the Indian government on Thursday said 16 lives, including three women and five children, were lost “due to Pakistani firing.”
Pakistan said at least 31 of its civilians were killed and about 50 wounded in Wednesday’s strikes and in cross-border shelling across the frontier in Kashmir.
The nuclear-armed neighbors’ tit-for-tat measures began after gunmen opened fire in the Baisaran Valley, a popular tourist attraction in Indian-administered Kashmir’s Pahalgam area, on the afternoon of April 22, killing 26 people and wounding several others before fleeing into the surrounding pine forests.
Although Pakistan’s federal government has pledged to respond to India’s strikes, Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif told The New York Times on Wednesday Pakistan was ready to de-escalate.
Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said New Delhi did not intend to escalate the situation.
“However, if there are military attacks on us, there should be no doubt that it will be met with a very, very firm response,” he said at India-Iran Joint Commission Meeting.
“Our livestock and belongings are all gone. Nothing is left. This shelling must stop, and there should be peace. For God’s sake, give us peace. We want peace for everyone,” said a resident of Uri on the Indian side of the border.
Silent streets, shuttered shops: Fear grips Kotli after India strikes in Azad Kashmir
- District official says missile strike on house and mosque killed two siblings and injured two others
- Residents deny India’s claim of targeting ‘terrorist infrastructure,’ say civilians were the target
KOTLI, Azad Kashmir: A convoy of journalists escorted by the Pakistani military and officials traveled through the scenic but tense roads of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) this week, arriving in the afternoon in Kotli, where an Indian strike on a mosque on Wednesday early morning had killed two people.
The usually bustling city stood silent, its shops shuttered, roads empty and anxious residents watching from a distance.
Amid the most intense military flare-up between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan in decades, New Delhi said it had struck nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites in Pakistan and AJK early Wednesday. AJK is the part of the disputed Kashmir valley administered by Pakistan while Jammu and Kashmir is a region administered by India.
India described Wednesday’s strikes as retaliation for an April 22 attack in its part of Kashmir that killed 26 tourists. Delhi attributed that attack to Pakistan, a claim Islamabad has repeatedly denied.
Pakistani authorities said six locations were hit across the country during Indian strikes, resulting in 31 deaths and 57 injuries. The Pakistan army spokesperson said the military responded by downing five Indian aircraft.
“It [the attack] happened after 12:30 a.m. on [Wednesday], when people were asleep and were jolted awake by the sound of the blasts,” Dawood Ahmed, a local resident, told Arab News near the mosque in Kotli that was hit by Indian strikes.
“It happened so suddenly, and people were so terrified that they rushed out of their homes with their children ... We thought a major attack had occurred and that Kotli had been surrounded.”
Ahmed said the Nakial sector on the Line of Control (LoC), the restive de facto border separating the Pakistani and Indian sides of Kashmir, was about 22 kilometers from the area.
“So, we are not used to regular firing or skirmishes,” he added. “This was something entirely new for us.”
Asked about the Indian claim that it had targeted a militant facility, Ahmed said the building was just a mosque. No one lived there and it was occupied only when the imam came to lead prayers.
Arab News could not independently verify this.
“PLACE OF WORSHIP”
Nasir Rafiq, the area’s deputy commissioner, said a house located next to the mosque was also hit by the Indian strikes.
“Two people, a 19-year-old girl and a 12-year-old boy, both siblings, were killed in the attack, and two others were injured including a woman and her son,” he told Arab News, standing in front of the destroyed house and mosque.
He said the siblings, both students, had come from the nearby Nakial town. The elder sister was attending university and the younger brother was in school.
As the media delegation remained at the site, more residents gathered, listening closely to the conversations between journalists and locals.
Dr. Mazhar Iqbal Tahir, head of a local hospital, said the blast was so massive that staff couldn’t immediately understand what had happened.
“We immediately imposed emergency [at the hospital] and called all doctors and health care professionals,” he told Arab News.
Tahir said the hospital treated the injured, but both siblings had died before they were brought in.
Umar Farooq, a local university professor, said Kotli was one of the most populated cities in AJK and far from the LoC, questioning how India could have bombed such a place.
“There is no military target here, there is no paramilitary target here, and this is the question that I am raising,” he told Arab News.
“Just take a look around,” he said, gesturing toward the mosque. “This is a place of worship. India is the signatory of the Geneva Conventions and other international humanitarian agreements. Still they have done this to us.”
