How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign

People mingle in the CNN Spin Room ahead of a CNN Presidential Debate on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (AFP)
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Updated 28 June 2024
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How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign

ATLANTA: President Joe Biden and his Republican rival, Donald Trump, will meet for a debate on Thursday that offers an unparalleled opportunity for both candidates to try to reshape the political narrative.

Biden, the Democratic incumbent, gets the chance to reassure voters that, at 81, he’s capable of guiding the US through a range of challenges. The 78-year-old Trump, meanwhile, could use the moment to try to move past his felony conviction in New York and convince an audience of tens of millions that he’s temperamentally suited to return to the Oval Office.

Biden and Trump enter the night facing fierce headwinds, including a public weary of the tumult of partisan politics. Both candidates are disliked by majorities of Americans, according to polling, and offer sharply different visions on virtually every core issue. Trump has promised sweeping plans to remake the US government if he returns to the White House and Biden argues that his opponent would pose an existential threat to the nation’s democracy.

With just over four months until Election Day, their performances have the rare potential to alter the trajectory of the race. Every word and gesture will be parsed not just for what both men say but how they interact with each other and how they hold up under pressure.

“Debates tend not to change voters’ perception in ways that change their vote: They ordinarily reinforce, not persuade,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, the director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania and an expert on presidential communications. “What makes this debate different is that you have in essence two incumbents about whom voters have very well-formed views. But that doesn’t mean that those perceptions are right or match what voters will see on stage.”

The debate marks a series of firsts

Trump and Biden haven’t been on the same stage or even spoken since their last debate weeks before the 2020 presidential election. Trump skipped Biden’s inauguration after leading an unprecedented and unsuccessful effort to overturn his loss to Biden that culminated in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection by his supporters.

Thursday’s broadcast on CNN will be the earliest general election debate in history. It’s the first-ever televised general election presidential debate hosted by a single news outlet after both campaigns ditched the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which had organized every matchup since 1988.

Under the network’s rules, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not qualify.

Aiming to avoid a repeat of their chaotic 2020 matchups, Biden insisted — and Trump agreed — to hold the debate without an audience and to allow the network to mute the candidates’ microphones when it is not their turn to speak. There will be two commercial breaks, another departure from modern practice. The candidates have agreed not to consult staff or others while the cameras are off.

The timing follows moves by both candidates to respond to nationwide trends toward early voting by shifting forward the political calendar. It remains to be seen whether the advanced schedule will dampen the effects of any missteps or crystallize them in the public’s mind.

“You have two men that have not debated in four years,” said Phillippe Reines, a Democratic political consultant who helped former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton prepare for debates with Trump in 2016.

Biden and Trump, he said, “don’t like each other, haven’t seen each other, (are) pretty rusty heading into the biggest night of their lives. That about sums up what’s at stake on Thursday.”

Both sides recognize the stakes

The debate falls days after the second anniversary of the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, ending a federally guaranteed right to abortion and pushing reproductive rights into the center of politics ever since.

The faceoff also occurs just after the Biden White House took executive action to restrict asylum claims at the US-Mexico border in an effort to lower the number of migrants entering the country. Trump has made illegal immigration a centerpiece of his campaign.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza loom over the race, as do the candidates’ sharply differing views about America’s role in the world and its alliances. Differences on inflation, tax policy and government investment to build infrastructure and fight climate change will provide further contrasts.

Also in the political background: The Supreme Court is on the brink of announcing its decision on whether Trump is legally immune for his alleged role in the Jan. 6 insurrection. That’s weeks after Trump was convicted in New York of taking part in a hush money scheme that prosecutors alleged was intended to unlawfully influence the 2016 election.

Biden spent the week leading up to the debate secluded at Camp David with senior White House and campaign aides as well as a coterie of longtime advisers and allies. A mock stage was built at the compound to simulate the studio where the debate will be held, and Biden’s personal attorney, Bob Bauer, was reprising his role as Trump in practice sessions.

Aides say the work reflects Biden’s understanding that he can’t afford a flat showing. They insist the sometimes stodgy orator would rise to the occasion.

“You know this president,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre Thursday. “He likes to fight.”

Trump, meanwhile, has continued his more unstructured debate prep with two days of meetings at his Florida estate, phoning allies and supporters, and road-testing attacks in social media postings and in interviews with conservative-leaning outlets. The unorganized style that is a hallmark of the former president’s often-rambling rally speeches could present a challenge in the regimented, tightly timed debate format.

Trump and his aides have spent months chronicling what they argue are signs of Biden’s diminished stamina. In recent days, they’ve started to predict Biden will be stronger on Thursday, aiming to raise expectations for the incumbent.

The candidates have Georgia on their mind

Atlanta, the debate’s host city, offers symbolic and practical meaning for the campaign, but each side believes that what happens there will resonate far and wide.

In 2020, Biden secured Georgia’s 16 electoral votes with a margin of less than 12,000 votes out of 5 million cast. Trump pushed the state’s Republican leadership to overturn his victory based on false theories of voter fraud, memorably being caught on tape saying he wanted to “find 11,780 votes.” He now faces state racketeering charges.

Both campaigns held a flurry of events in Atlanta leading into the debate, including competing events at Black-owned local businesses. Trump called in Friday to a gathering at Rocky’s Barbershop in the Buckhead community to talk about his matchup with Biden and question whether CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash would treat him fairly.

Heading out of the debate, both Biden and Trump will travel to states they hope to swing their way this fall. Trump is heading to Virginia, a onetime battleground that has shifted toward Democrats in recent years.

Biden is set to jet off to North Carolina, where he is expected to hold the largest-yet rally of his campaign in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2020.


Trial operation to remove radioactive debris from Fukushima nuclear plant successful

Updated 8 sec ago
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Trial operation to remove radioactive debris from Fukushima nuclear plant successful

  • Extracting the estimated 880 tonnes of highly radioactive fuel and debris from Fukushima remains the most challenging part of the decades-long decommissioning process
TOKYO: A difficult operation to remove a small piece of radioactive debris from Japan’s stricken Fukushima nuclear plant using a robotic device was completed successfully, the plant operator said Thursday, after technical issues halted earlier attempts.
Extracting the estimated 880 tonnes of highly radioactive fuel and debris from Fukushima remains the most challenging part of the decades-long decommissioning process.
But radioactivity levels inside the former power station, which went into meltdown in 2011 after being hit by a catastrophic tsunami, are too high for humans to enter.
So engineers used a specially developed extendible robotic device to remove a sample with a diameter of five millimeters (0.2 inches), aiming to study it for clues about conditions inside the stricken reactors.
The trial debris removal began in September, after an initial attempt in August was suspended at an early stage over a problem with the equipment’s installation.
Another technical snag related to cameras on the apparatus caused a pause of over a month before the procedure resumed in late October.
On Thursday, plant operator TEPCO said it had “completed the trial removal of fuel debris,” declaring the operation a success after several complex steps.
Over the weekend, the robot managed to remove a piece of debris from a containment vessel surrounding a damaged reactor for the first time.
Technicians then tested the radiation level of the sample on Tuesday and put it in a special container.
It will be sent to research institutes in Ibaraki north of Tokyo for analysis, a TEPCO spokeswoman said, adding that the company is still studying when it will be able to start the full-fledged removal of the radioactive debris.
Three of Fukushima’s six reactors were operating when the tsunami hit on March 11, 2011, triggering the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl.
Japan last year began releasing into the Pacific Ocean some of the 540 Olympic swimming pools’ worth of treated reactor cooling water amassed since the disaster.
The step sparked a diplomatic row with China and Russia, both of which banned seafood imports, although Japan insists the discharge is safe, a view backed by the UN atomic agency.
Beijing, however, said in September it would “gradually resume” importing seafood from Japan after imposing the blanket ban.

EU leaders call on Georgia to probe vote ‘irregularities’

Updated 27 min 58 sec ago
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EU leaders call on Georgia to probe vote ‘irregularities’

  • They added they would not be able to support the ex-Soviet republic’s ambitions to join the European Union

BUDAPEST: The leaders of France, Germany and Poland called on Georgia Thursday to quickly probe “numerous irregularities” during a recent parliamentary poll won by the Russia-leaning ruling party but contested by the pro-Western opposition.
In a joint statement, the EU countries’ leaders said they were “deeply concerned by the numerous irregularities and voter intimidation” reported during the vote.
They added they would not be able to support the ex-Soviet republic’s ambitions to join the European Union unless it showed it was serious about carrying out necessary reforms.
“If Georgia does not change course by demonstrating concrete efforts in terms of reform... we will not be able to support the opening of accession negotiations with this country to the European Union,” French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a joint statement.
The pro-Western opposition in Georgia, a small country tucked in the Caucasus, has refused to recognize the ruling Georgian Dream party’s win in the October 26 election or to enter the newly elected parliament, which it calls “illegitimate.”
The European Union and the United States blasted “irregularities” in the vote, while Georgian Dream’s opponents have accused it of putting the Caucasus country on a pro-Kremlin track.


Philippines evacuates thousands ahead of Typhoon Yinxing

Updated 57 min 21 sec ago
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Philippines evacuates thousands ahead of Typhoon Yinxing

  • Packing maximum sustained wind speeds of 175 kilometers (109 miles) per hour, Typhoon Yinxing could make landfall in the northern Philippines later in the day or early Friday, the state weather agency

MANILA: The Philippines has evacuated thousands of people from coastal communities ahead of a major typhoon, officials said Thursday, just weeks after a tropical cyclone left at least 150 people dead.
Packing maximum sustained wind speeds of 175 kilometers (109 miles) per hour, Typhoon Yinxing could make landfall in the northern Philippines later in the day or early Friday, the state weather agency said.
Yinxing is the third storm in less than a month to threaten the Philippines after Severe Tropical Storm Trami and Super Typhoon Kong-rey together left 158 people dead, the national disaster agency said, with most of that tally attributed to Trami.
At least 17,000 people from coastal areas of Cagayan province, in the country’s far north, moved into temporary shelters on Wednesday to avoid potential flooding from heavy rains now pounding the region, provincial rescue official Rueli Rapsing told AFP.
“I’m expecting more evacuees to arrive since there is an ongoing evacuation in the municipalities,” Rapsing said.
The national weather agency said Cagayan, home to about 1.3 million people, might bear the brunt of Yinxing based on its current trajectory.
“We have already depleted the quick response fund of the province and we’re actually asking the national disaster council for the replenishment of the quick response fund so we can provide assistance,” Rapsing said.
In Ilocos Norte province near Cagayan, rescuers were on standby to help local police, fire officers and soldiers in emergency response, provincial rescue official Randy Nicolas told AFP.
Nicolas said they are closely monitoring possible landslides, floods and swelling of rivers in the province, with storm surges — huge waves along the coast, also a concern in Ilocos Norte and Cagayan.
Disaster officials in the mountainous province of Apayao said almost 500 people have been evacuated.
“We really prioritized preemptive evacuations because we want to have zero deaths here in Apayao,” provincial disaster official Aldrin Agmata told AFP.
School has been suspended in many areas of the north and President Ferdinand Marcos put all government agencies on high alert so they can swiftly respond.
“Remember, every life is important so we should always be prepared,” Marcos said in a statement on Wednesday.


Japan PM to boost defense alliance with ‘very friendly’ Trump

Updated 07 November 2024
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Japan PM to boost defense alliance with ‘very friendly’ Trump

  • Key allies Japan and the United States are each other’s top foreign investors

TOKYO: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Thursday he had agreed with US president-elect Donald Trump in a phone call to strengthen the nations’ alliance, after the tycoon’s victory sent defense-related shares surging.
Trump’s “America First” approach could mean less cash from Washington for security in the Asia-Pacific region, analysts say — with investors betting on Japan upgrading its own military capacities.
Key allies Japan and the United States are each other’s top foreign investors, and 54,000 US military personnel are stationed in Japan, mostly in Okinawa east of Taiwan.
Ishiba, who took office just over a month ago, said he and Trump hoped to organize a face-to-face meeting “as soon as possible,” describing the president-elect as “very friendly.”
“He is the kind of person I will be able to talk to candidly,” Ishiba told reporters.
“I would like to hold active discussions on the strengthening of the Japan-US alliance from various standpoints including specific equipment, operations and integration, not just money,” he added.
Shares in Japanese defense contractor IHI ended up nearly 20 percent Wednesday, as Trump’s victory began to look secure, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries gained almost 10 percent.
The expectation is “that Trump will demand that allies do more and spend more to defend themselves,” said Claudia Junghyun Kim, an assistant professor of international affairs at City University of Hong Kong.
Japan is already in the process of doubling its military spending to the NATO standard of two percent of GDP.
“This pressure from Trump doesn’t exactly clash with Ishiba’s hope to increase defense spending,” Kim told AFP, and it “should be good news for Japan’s defense industry.”
US elections
When Trump last won a US election in 2016, then-prime minister Shinzo Abe was the first foreign leader to meet the president-elect at his Manhattan skyscraper.
Japanese media said Ishiba could arrange a trip to the United States around the time he attends the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru this month.
“On a personal level, Ishiba might be in a challenging position” when he meets Trump, Daisuke Kawai, deputy director of the University of Tokyo’s economic security research program, told AFP.
“Ishiba is a railway enthusiast who doesn’t enjoy golf or social dinners, and unlike Abe, he’s not particularly adept at engaging in social or entertaining conversations. This could mean their personal chemistry may not align well.”
Both Ishiba and Trump perceive the US-Japan alliance as unequal — but in opposite directions — so “initiating productive discussions could be difficult,” Kawai added.
Ishiba led his ruling coalition to a disastrous loss of its majority in snap elections last month.
He is expected to lead a minority government or widen the coalition to include other parties.
Japan and the EU announced a sweeping new security and defense pact on Friday.
Kawai said it was important for Tokyo to build a defense ecosystem “that generates profits through joint production with other countries.”
Japan, which for decades has relied on the United States for military hardware, is also developing a new fighter jet with EU member Italy and Britain set to be airborne by 2035.


Indonesia volcano belches colossal ash tower

Updated 07 November 2024
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Indonesia volcano belches colossal ash tower

  • Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki erupted on Monday and Tuesday, killing nine people and forcing the relocation of residents
  • Laki-Laki, which means ‘man’ in Indonesian, is twinned with a calmer volcano named after the Indonesian word for ‘woman’

EAST FLORES, Indonesia: A volcano in eastern Indonesia erupted more than half a dozen times on Thursday, catapulting a colossal ash tower five miles into the sky against a backdrop of lightning as nearby residents fled in panic.
Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki erupted on Monday and Tuesday, killing nine people and forcing the relocation of residents from a 7-kilometer (4.3-mile) exclusion zone.
The country’s volcanology agency reported seven eruptions on Thursday, the biggest of which belched an ash tower five miles (eight kilometers) high, according to an observation post.
Some said it was the biggest eruption they had ever seen from Lewotobi Laki-Laki.
“This is the first time I saw this big eruption since I’ve been living in Lewolaga village,” said Anastasia Adriyani, 41, who lives outside the exclusion zone.
“I was cooking at the community kitchen (for evacuees) and when it happened, I ran back home. I was very scared.”
Officials have raised the alert level for the 1,703-meter (5,587-foot) twin-peaked volcano on the tourist island of Flores to the highest level.
There were no immediate reports of damage to nearby villages from Thursday’s fresh eruptions.
But residents and schoolchildren were seen running from their homes, according to an AFP journalist, who added volcanic lightning was also seen.
Locals at a temporary shelter were anxious as the latest eruptions rumbled on Thursday morning.
“It is sad to think of our village, and we are also panicked seeing the continuous eruptions. Since last night and this morning, we’re still worried,” said evacuee Antonius Puka, 56.
Laki-Laki, which means “man” in Indonesian, is twinned with a calmer volcano named after the Indonesian word for “woman.”
Indonesia, a vast archipelago nation, experiences frequent seismic and volcanic activity due to its position on the Pacific “Ring of Fire.”