DUBAI: A low-key moderate and a protege of Iran’s supreme leader are neck-and-neck in the vote count in snap presidential elections marked by voter apathy over economic hardships and social restrictions.
More than 14 million votes have been counted so far from Friday’s vote, of which the sole moderate candidate Massoud Pezeshkian had won over 5.9 million votes and his hard-line challenger former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili over 5.5 million, provisional results by the interior ministry showed.
Some insiders said the turnout was around 40 percent, lower than expected by Iran’s clerical rulers, while witnesses said that polling stations in Tehran and some other cities were not crowded.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency said a run-off election was “very likely” to pick the next president following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.
If no candidate wins at least 50 percent plus one vote from all ballots cast, including blank votes, a run-off between the top two candidates is held on the first Friday after the result is declared.
The election coincides with escalating regional tension due to the war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing nuclear program.
While the election is unlikely to bring a major shift in the Islamic Republic’s policies, its outcome could influence the succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader, in power since 1989.
The clerical establishment sought a high turnout to offset a legitimacy crisis fueled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedom.
The next president is not expected to usher in any major policy shift on Iran’s nuclear program or support for militia groups across the Middle East, since Khamenei calls all the shots on top state matters.
However, the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policy.
Pezeshkian’s views offer a contrast to those of Jalili, advocating detente with the West, economic reform, social liberalization and political pluralism.
A staunch anti-Westerner, Jalili’s win would signal the possibility of an even more antagonistic turn in the Islamic Republic’s foreign and domestic policy, analysts said.
LIMITED CHOICES
The election was a contest among a tightly controlled group of three hard-line candidates and one low-profile moderate loyal to the supreme leader. A hard-line watchdog body approved only six from an initial pool of 80 and two hard-line candidates subsequently dropped out.
“Based on unconfirmed reports, the election is very likely heading to a second round ... Jalili and Pezeshkian will compete in a run-off election,” Tasnim reported.
Critics of the clerical establishment say that low turnouts in recent years show the system’s legitimacy has eroded. Turnout was 48 percent in the 2021 presidential election and a record low of 41 percent of people voted in a parliamentary election in March.
All candidates have vowed to revive the flagging economy, beset by mismanagement, state corruption and sanctions re-imposed since 2018, after the US ditched Tehran’s nuclear pact.
“I think Jalili is the only candidate who raised the issue of justice, fighting corruption and giving value to the poor. ... Most importantly, he does not link Iran’s foreign policy to the nuclear deal,” said Farzan, a 45-year-old artist in the city of Karaj.
DIVIDED VOTERS
Pezeshkian, faithful to Iran’s theocratic rule, is backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years.
“We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behavior toward women,” Pezeshkian said after casting his vote.
He was referring to the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, in 2022 while in morality police custody for allegedly violating the mandatory Islamic dress code.
The unrest sparked by Amini’s death spiraled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran’s clerical rulers in years.
Pezeshkian attempted to revive the enthusiasm of reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls for the last four years as a mostly youthful population chafes at political and social curbs. He could also benefit from his rivals’ failure to consolidate the hard-line vote.
In the past few weeks, Iranians have made wide use of the hashtag #ElectionCircus on X, with some activists at home and abroad calling for a boycott, saying a high turnout would only serve to legitimize the Islamic Republic.
Khamenei protege, sole moderate neck and neck in Iran presidential race
https://arab.news/98sx9
Khamenei protege, sole moderate neck and neck in Iran presidential race
- More than 14 million votes have been counted so far from Friday’s vote
- Some insiders say turnout around 40%, lower than expected by clerical rulers
More Palestinians forced onto jeep bonnet by Israeli soldiers: BBC report
LONDON: Two Palestinian men shot during a military operation in the occupied West Bank told the BBC how Israeli soldiers forced them onto the bonnet of an army jeep and then drove along village roads at high speeds.
Their testimonies come in the wake of footage showing 23-year-old Mujahid Abadi Balas clinging to the bonnet of what appears to be the same Israeli army jeep which has sparked international outrage.
Samir Dabaya, currently hospitalized in Jenin, recounted how he was shot in the back by Israeli forces during the operation in Jabariyat on Saturday. He said he lay face-down for hours, bleeding, until soldiers approached him. On finding the 25-year-old alive, they allegedly beat him with a gun before lifting him onto the vehicle.
“They took off my (trousers). I wanted to hold onto the car, but [one soldier] hit my face and told me not to. Then he started driving,” said Dabaya. “I was waiting for death.”
Dabaya provided the BBC with security camera footage purportedly showing him semi-naked on a fast-moving jeep which was marked with the number 1.
Another Palestinian, Hesham Isleit, also told the BBC he was shot twice during the Jabariyat operation and forced onto the same jeep.
Isleit described there being “shooting from all sides” and said he was collected by an army unit as he tried to flee after being shot in the leg.
He said the jeep was so hot “it felt like fire.”
“I was barefoot and undressed. I tried to put my hand on the jeep and I couldn’t, it was burning hot. I was telling them it was very hot, and they were forcing me to get on — telling me that if I didn’t want to die, I should do it,” he said.
Responding to the original video of Balas, the Israeli army stated he was tied to the jeep in “a violation of orders and procedures” and that an investigation would be conducted into the incident.
Gaza hospital chief among Palestinians freed by Israel
- Mohammed Abu Salmiya, other freed detainees cross back into Gaza from Israel just east of Khan Younis
JERUSALEM: Israel released the head of Gaza’s biggest hospital, who had been detained for more than seven months, among dozens of Palestinian prisoners returned Monday to the besieged territory for treatment.
His release was confirmed on social media by Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and by a medical source inside the Gaza Strip.
Al-Shifa director Mohammed Abu Salmiya was detained in November.
Successive raids have seen the hospital where he worked largely reduced to rubble since Israel launched its assault on Gaza after the October 7 Hamas attacks on southern Israel.
Salmiya and the other freed detainees crossed back into Gaza from Israel just east of Khan Younis, a medical source at the Al-Aqsa hospital in Deir El-Balah said.
Five detainees were admitted to Al-Aqsa hospital and the others were sent to hospitals in Khan Younis, the source added.
An AFP correspondent at Deir El-Balah saw some detainees have emotional reunions with their families.
Israel’s military said it was “checking” reports about the prisoner release.
However, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir confirmed the release when he posted on X, formerly Twitter, that Salmiya’s release “with dozens of other terrorists is security abandonment.”
Israel has accused Hamas of using hospitals in the Gaza Strip as a cover for military operations and infrastructure.
The militant group, which has run the territory since 2007, denies the allegations.
In May, Palestinian rights groups said a senior Al-Shifa surgeon had died in an Israeli jail after being detained. Israel’s army said it was unaware of the death.
The war started with Hamas’s October 7 attack which resulted in the deaths of 1,195 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 37,877 people, also mostly civilians, according to data from the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza.
Israel army says Gaza militants fire barrage of ‘20 projectiles’
- Armed wing of Islamic Jihad says it had fired the salvo that targeted several southern Israel communities along the border with Gaza
JERUSALEM PRESSE: Israel’s military said Palestinian militants fired on Monday a barrage of some “20 projectiles” from Gaza’s main southern city Khan Younis, and that forces were striking the suspected launch site.
“Approximately 20 projectiles were identified crossing from the area of Khan Younis. A number of the projectiles were intercepted and some of the projectiles fell inside southern Israel,” the military said, reporting no casualties.
The armed wing of Islamic Jihad said it had fired the salvo that targeted several southern Israel communities along the border with Gaza.
“We bombed ... the settlements along the Gaza Strip with a missile barrage in response to the crimes of the Zionist enemy against our Palestinian people,” the Al-Quds Brigades said in a statement.
Iran election shows declining voter support amid calls for change
- Of 61 million eligible voters, only about 40 percent cast ballots, marking record-low turnout in country
- Iran has been reeling from economic impact of international sanctions, contributing to inflation, unemployment
TEHRAN: The first round of Iran’s presidential election revealed shrinking support for reformists and conservatives even though some voters are pushing for change by backing the sole reformist candidate, analysts say.
Masoud Pezeshkian, the reformist contender and ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, led the polls held on Friday to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month.
Friday’s vote, marked by a historically low turnout, “clearly shows that both reformists’ and conservatives’ bases have considerably shrunk,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group think tank.
In the lead-up to the election, Iran’s main reformist coalition supported Pezeshkian, with endorsements by former presidents Mohammed Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, a moderate.
FASTFACT
The combined votes of Saeed Jalili and Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf totaled 12.8 million.
“The reformists brought out the big guns and tried their best to mobilize their base,” Vaez said on social media platform X, but “it was simply insufficient.”
Likewise, the conservatives failed to garner sufficient votes “despite the tremendous resources they deployed,” he added.
Vaez pointed out that the combined votes of Jalili and conservative parliamentary speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, who came in third, totaled 12.8 million.
That figure was well below Raisi’s nearly 18 million votes in the 2021 election.
Of the 61 million eligible voters, only about 40 percent cast ballots, marking a record-low turnout in the country where some people have lost faith in the process. More than 1 million ballots were spoiled.
For Vaez, the decline in turnout, from around 49 percent in 2021, was “a real embarrassment for the leadership” in Iran, where ultimate political power lies with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Political commentator Mohammed Reza Manafi said Pezeshkian’s lead reflected a push for “fundamental changes” regarding the economy and relations with the rest of the world.
However, those favoring Pezeshkian “do not expect a miracle or a quick solution but hope he can gradually prevent conditions from worsening,” Manafi added.
Iran has been reeling from the economic impact of international sanctions, contributing to soaring inflation, high unemployment, and a record low for the Iranian rial against the US dollar.
The vote also came amid heightened regional tensions over the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas and diplomatic tensions over Iran’s nuclear program.
Pezeshkian, an outspoken heart surgeon who has represented the northwestern city of Tabriz in parliament since 2008, came out on top thanks to his “clean record without any accusations of financial corruption,” said Manafi.
Official figures showed Pezeshkian had 42.4 percent of the vote, against 38.6 percent for Jalili.
The reformists have urged “constructive relations” with Washington and European capitals to “get Iran out of its isolation.”
In contrast, Jalili is widely recognized for his uncompromising anti-West stance.
He is a former nuclear negotiator and a representative of Khamenei on the Supreme National Security Council, Iran’s highest security body.
During his campaign, he rallied a substantial base of hard-line supporters under the slogan “no compromise, no surrender” to the West.
He staunchly opposed the 2015 nuclear deal with the US and other world powers, which imposed curbs on Iran’s nuclear activity in return for sanctions relief.
At the time, Jalili argued that the pact violated Iran’s “red lines” by accepting inspections of nuclear sites.
The deal collapsed in 2018.
In a Sunday column in the ultraconservative Javan daily, political expert Ali Alavi hailed Jalili’s “honesty and truthfulness, unlike the others.”
The candidate also received support from Ghalibaf, who, after Saturday’s result, urged his support base to back Jalili in next Friday’s runoff.
Two ultraconservatives who dropped out a day before the election have also endorsed Jalili.
But on Sunday, the reformist newspaper Etemad quoted former vice president Isa Kalantari as warning against a continued conservative grip on the government.
“The country will be in peril and face numerous problems and challenges,” he said.
Vaez said the “Jalili fear factor can’t be overlooked.”
“Many who didn’t vote in this round might vote in the next one: not because they hope for better, but because they fear the worst.”
Political analyst Mohammad Marandi, however, said Jalili may not be “the sort of radical that is depicted by his opponents.”
Marandi believes that under either of the two candidates, Iran will “continue to pursue strong ties with the Global South” countries.
He added that they “will still attempt to see what can be done with the nuclear deal,” though Jalili “will just approach it with more skepticism.”
French insurance company AXA IM Alts expands global presence with first Mideast office
- Saudi Arabia’s Ammar Bukhamsin appointed as senior executive officer, co-head of MENA Client Group
- Will work with large local institutions, individuals, says Isabelle Scemama, global head of AXA IM Alts
LONDON: French multinational insurance company AXA IM Alts opened its first Middle East office in the UAE on Monday, with a Saudi Arabia national appointed to head its regional drive.
This marks the opening of its 16th office globally, which will be focused on raising capital across the company’s private and alternative assets range, the company said in a statement.
Saudi Arabia citizen Ammar Bukhamsin has been appointed as the senior executive officer of AXA IM Middle East, and co-head of the Middle East North Africa Client Group alongside Paris-based Francois Boissin.
Isabelle Scemama, the global head of AXA IM Alts, said: “The opening of our new office in Abu Dhabi marks a significant milestone in our expansion strategy and underscores the strategic importance of the Middle East in our international growth plans.
“This move marks a natural progression for our business in the region and paves the way for further successful partnerships with local investors to meet their rapidly evolving investment requirements, across AXA IM Alts’ expertise,” she added.
She told Arab News the company manages assets of $200 billion on behalf of 600 clients from around the world. The firm invests in real estate, alternative credit, infrastructure, impact investment, and natural capital, which includes reforestation projects, carbon credit trading, green transportation, climate change and energy transition.
“If I look at the capital rate over the past few years, 40 percent have been raised outside Europe, and the Middle East has always been an important area ... so the idea is it’s more of a natural evolution, and we think, to serve our clients, we have to be established in the region,” she said.
She said there was a “lot of appetite” in the region and the firm considers the Middle East a “key partner for European investment.” The idea is to be “closer to our clients” through a dedicated local presence.
On real estate development, Scemama said the opening of the new office comes “at a time where there are more and more regulations to reduce the energy intensity of building.”
The company considers this “as an opportunity in front of us and we think that it is something that is also appealing for Middle Eastern investors.”
The plan is to work with local players, large institutions and individuals. “The idea for the moment is really to be closer to our clients, (but) we have not made the decision for the moment to invest in the region — so to deploy capital there, it may happen at some point.
“But we always assist carefully our capability to deploy at scale, scale matters a lot in our market — being able to deploy a lot of capital. But also to diversify portfolio you need a significant size.
“And we know that each time you go in a new jurisdiction it’s a lot of local understanding of the regulation(s), being able to deploy capital and also to establish a team,” Scemama explained.
She added: “We are very strong on alignment of interest, whether it’s on infrastructure or real estate, (and) we always organize co-investments and guarantee investors that they will not be treated in parallel.
“But they will have access to our pipeline and they will benefit from the co-investment capabilities we can offer, so that’s something also that is quite appealing for the institutions in the region.”
On Bukhamsin’s appointment, Scemama said the new regional head has an impressive track record and is expected to create long-term opportunities for the company.
Florence Dard, global head of the client group at AXA IM Alts, said: “Having built strong relationships in the Middle East over a number of years, the opening of an office in Abu Dhabi is a natural step forward in our strategy to both grow our presence and accelerate our business development in the region.
“As a global leading alternative player, we have actively engaged with a large number of sophisticated Middle Eastern investors who seek attractive alternative investment opportunities, especially in Europe where we have a unique sourcing, access and breadth of offering.”
Arvind Ramamurthy, the chief of market development at Abu Dhabi Global Market in the UAE capital, said: “Abu Dhabi, also known as the ‘Capital of Capital,’ has become a premier destination due to its sophisticated regulatory regimes and abundant investment opportunities.
“As an anchored asset management firm, we look forward to the various expertise and innovative capabilities that AXA IM Alts will bring to ADGM’s vibrant ecosystem and to the region.”
Before joining AXA IM Alts, Bukhamsin spent over eight years at the French-based investment banking company Natixis, including three years as the firm’s CEO for Saudi Arabia. His 20-year career includes senior sales roles at Goldman Sachs, UBS and Citi, the company said.
Boissin has spent the past nine years at AXA, first as vice president of investor relations for the group and then two years in raising capital at AXA IM Alts. He has had a 20-year career in finance and sales, the company added.
