ANKARA: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar Assad have recently signaled that they are interested in restoring diplomatic ties that have been ruptured for more than a decade.
Erdogan has said that he will soon extend an invitation to Assad to meet for the first time since Ankara and Damascus broke off relations in 2011, as mass anti-government protests and a brutal crackdown by security forces in Syria spiraled into a still-ongoing civil war.
Turkiye backed Syrian insurgent groups seeking to overthrow Assad and still maintains forces in the opposition-held northwest, a sore point for Damascus.
This is not the first time that there have been attempts to normalize relations between the two countries, but previous attempts failed to gain traction.
Here’s a look at what might happen this time around:
What happened at their last talks
Russia, which is one of the strongest backers of Assad’s government but also has close ties with Turkiye, has been pushing for a return to diplomatic relations.
In December 2022, the Turkish, Syrian and Russian defense ministers held talks in Moscow, the first ministerial level meeting between rivals Turkiye and Syria since 2011. Russia also brokered meetings between Syrian and Turkish officials last year.
However, the talks fizzled, and Syrian officials publicly continued to blast Turkiye’s presence in northwest Syria. Assad said in an interview with Sky News Arabia last August that the objective of Erdogan’s overtures was “to legitimize the Turkish occupation in Syria.”
What’s different now
Russia appears to once again be promoting the talks, but this time around, Iraq — which shares a border with both Turkiye and Syria — has also offered to mediate, as it previously did between regional arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century International think tank, said Iraq may have taken the initiative as a way to deflect pressure from Turkiye to crack down on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a Kurdish separatist group that has waged an insurgency against Turkiye since the 1980s and has bases in northern Iraq.
By pushing rapprochement with Syria, Baghdad may be trying to “create some form of positive engagement with the Turks, kick the can down the road, and deflect the threat of an intervention,” Lund said.
The geopolitical situation in the region has also changed with the war in Gaza and fears of a wider regional conflict. Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, an analyst on Turkiye and director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said that both countries may be feeling insecure and seeking new alliances in the face of the war’s potential regional ripple effects.
What Turkiye and Syria want
From Erdogan’s side, Unluhisarcikli said, the attempt to engage is likely driven in part by the increasing anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkiye. Erdogan is likely hoping for a deal that could pave the way for the return of many of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees living in his country.
From the Syrian side, a return to relations with Turkiye would be another step toward ending Assad’s political isolation in the region after more than a decade as a pariah due to his government’s brutal crackdown on protesters in 2011 and alleged war crimes afterward.
And despite their differences over Turkiye’s presence in northwest Syria, Damascus and Ankara both have an interest in curtailing the autonomy of Kurdish groups in northeast Syria.
Turkiye may be concerned that the security situation in northeast Syria could deteriorate in the event that the US withdraws troops it currently has stationed there as part of a coalition against the Islamic State militant group, Unluhisarcikli said. That could require Turkiye to “cooperate or at least coordinate with Syria, to manage the aftermath of the US withdrawal,” he said.
Joseph Daher, a Swiss-Syrian researcher and visiting professor at the European University Institute in Florence, said the two governments likely hope for modest “economic gains” in a rapprochement. While trade never completely stopped, it currently goes through intermediaries, he said, while restoring diplomatic relations would allow official commerce to resume and make trade more fluid.
The prospects for an agreement
Analysts agreed that the talks are unlikely to bring about the full Turkish withdrawal from northwest Syria that Damascus has called for or any other major shift in conditions on the ground in the near term.
Although the two countries’ interests “actually overlap to a large degree,” Lund said, “there are also major disagreements” and “a lot of bad blood and bitterness” that could impede even “lower-level dealmaking.” Both Erdogan and Assad may also want to wait for the outcome of US elections, which could determine the future American footprint in the region, before making a major deal, he said.
In the long run, Lund said, “The logic of the situation dictates Turkish-Syrian collaboration in some form. ... They’re neighbors. They’re stuck with each other and the current stalemate does them no good.”
Unluhisarcikli agreed that a “grand bargain” is unlikely to come out of the present talks, but the increased dialogue could lead to “some confidence building measures,” he said.
Daher said the most probable outcome of the talks is some “security agreements” between the two sides, but not a full Turkish withdrawal from Syria in the short term, particularly since the Syrian government army is too weak to control northwest Syria by itself.
“On its own, it’s not able to take back the whole of the northwest — it needs to deal with Turkiye,” he said.
How people in Turkiye and Syria view a potential agreement
In Turkiye and in government-controlled Syria, many view the prospects of a rapprochement positively. In northwest Syria, on the other hand, protests have broken out against the prospect of a normalization of relations between Ankara — which had previously positioned itself as a protector of the Syrian opposition — and Damascus.
Kurds in Syria have also viewed the potential rapprochement with apprehension. The Kurdish-led authority in northeast Syria said in a statement that the prospective reconciliation would be a “conspiracy against the Syrian people” and a “clear legitimization of the Turkish occupation” of previously Kurdish-majority areas that were seized by Turkish-backed forces.
Rapprochement between Syria and Turkiye on the table, here’s what it might mean for the region
https://arab.news/p5knk
Rapprochement between Syria and Turkiye on the table, here’s what it might mean for the region
- Ankara and Damascus broke off relations in 2011, as mass anti-government protests and a brutal crackdown by security forces in Syria spiraled into a still-ongoing civil war.
Turkish Airlines postpones Friday night flights to Iran, state media says
- Turkish Airlines did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the issue
ISTANBUL: Turkish Airlines postponed its flights to Iran on Friday night due to tensions between Israel and Iran, Turkiye’s state-owned Anadolu news agency reported, without specifying its source.
It said flights planned to different cities in Iran would resume starting Saturday morning.
Turkish Airlines did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the issue.
Reuters denies reporting of ballistic missile attack against Israel
- “Any claims that Reuters reported imminent preparations for a ballistic attack by Iran are false"
WASHINGTON: Reuters denied on Friday that it had reported on imminent preparations for a ballistic missile attack against Israel, after reports circulated on social media citing the news agency as saying this.
“Any claims that Reuters reported imminent preparations for a ballistic attack by Iran, including that satellites and radars have picked up ballistic missiles and drones leaving Iran, Yemen and Iraq toward Israel, or that Turkiye and Iraq have closed their airspace, are false. Reuters did not report this,” a spokesperson said.
Israel advances most West Bank settlements in decades: EU
- Excluding east Jerusalem, some 490,000 Israeli settlers now live in the West Bank alongside some three million Palestinians
JERUSALEM: Israel advanced last year the highest number of settlements in the occupied West Bank since the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, the European Union’s representative office in the Palestinian territories said on Friday.
Plans for 12,349 housing units moved toward approval in the West Bank, the EU office said, warning of the impact on a potential two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Another 18,333 units moved forward in the planning process in annexed east Jerusalem, the EU office said.
The total — 30,682 units in both the West Bank and east Jerusalem — is the highest since 2012, it added.
The report comes at a time of heightened tensions in the West Bank and east Jerusalem over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip, which has been raging since October 7.
“The EU has repeatedly called on Israel not to proceed with plans under its settlement policy and to halt all settlement activities,” the EU office said.
“It remains the EU’s firm position that settlements are illegal under international law.
“Israel’s decision to advance plans for the approval and construction of new settlement units in 2023 further undermines the prospects of a viable two-state solution.”
All of Israel’s settlements in the West Bank, occupied since 1967, are considered illegal under international law, regardless of whether they have Israeli planning permission.
Dozens of unauthorized settlements have sprung up in the territories — ranging from a few tents grouped together to prefabricated huts that have been linked to public electricity and water supplies.
Excluding east Jerusalem, some 490,000 Israeli settlers now live in the West Bank alongside some three million Palestinians. Far-right parties in Israel’s governing coalition have pressed for an acceleration of settlement expansion.
Since the start of the Gaza war, violence between Palestinians and Israeli troops and settlers has intensified.
At least 594 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli troops and settlers in the West Bank since October 7, according to an AFP tally based on Palestinian health ministry figures.
At least 17 Israelis, including soldiers, have been killed by Palestinian attacks in the West Bank over the same period, according to official Israeli figures.
The landmark Oslo Accords codified mutual recognition of Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization, as well as interim Palestinian self-government.
Last year Norwegian peace worker Jan Egeland, one of the deal’s architects, told AFP that he now considered the accords dead.
Thousands throng Beirut show as Hezbollah vows revenge
- Foreign airlines have suspended or canceled flights to Beirut but many Lebanese expatriates are still pouring in, although some have cut their holidays short
BEIRUT, Lebanon: As Hezbollah’s leader threatened Israel with crushing retaliation for killing their top commander, thousands in Beirut flocked to a dance extravaganza in a stark illustration of Lebanon’s deep divisions.
In the capital’s southern suburbs — a Hezbollah stronghold — tens of thousands of black-clad women and men in military uniform joined Thursday’s funeral procession for slain commander Fuad Shukr.
Across the city on the Beirut waterfront, nearly 8,000 people attended a spectacular dance show that evening by the Mayyas troupe that won the “America’s Got Talent” television contest in 2022.
“I am sad people are dying in southern Lebanon and Gaza, but resistance is not just about carrying a gun and fighting,” said 45-year-old Olga Farhat.
“Joy, art and celebrating life is also a form of resistance,” the human rights activist told AFP.
Fireworks opened the dance show, hours after Hezbollah buried Shukr, who was killed in an Israeli air strike in the southern suburbs on Tuesday.
The show entitled ‘Qumi’ — rise up in Arabic — was an ode to the Lebanese capital that has endured decades of conflict, upheaval and a years-long economic crisis.
“There is a split in the country between those who don’t care for war and feel that... Hezbollah wants to impose its collective identity on them, while the other group is fighting,” Farhat said.
“I understand both points of view, but we are tired of wars and crises, we want to enjoy life.”
In the southern suburbs, thousands of Hezbollah supporters chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.”
Across the city, dozens of Mayyas dancers performed a moving tribute to war-battered south Lebanon, from where Hezbollah has been exchanging near-daily cross-border fire with the Israel army since the Gaza war began on October 7.
“I grew up during Lebanon’s (1975-1990) civil war and I was raised to believe in the Palestinian cause,” Farhat said.
“But today I say ‘Lebanon first’.”
The raid that killed Shukr and an Iranian military adviser also cost the lives of three women and two young siblings, authorities said.
In a video clip circulating online, their bereaved mother said their lives were a “sacrifice for you, Sayyed (Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah).”
Speaking from the southern suburbs, Hussein Nasreddine, 36, said: “We love life like everyone else... but if Israel drags us into war, it is our duty to die as martyrs.”
The cross-border violence since October has killed at least 542 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters but also including 114 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
On the Israeli side, the army reports 47 dead, including on the annexed Golan Heights.
In June, the head of the Hezbollah bloc in the Lebanese parliament, Mohammad Raad, who lost a son in the border clashes, lambasted Lebanese “who want to go to night clubs... beaches, and enjoy their lives” as war rages in the south.
This week, independent lawmaker Mark Daou angered Hezbollah supporters by posting a photograph of Thursday night’s show with the comment: “The strongest response to Israel is the culture of life and beauty.”
Daou, who was elected after mass protests against the political leadership responsible for the country’s slide into economic crisis, told AFP he refused to “reduce Lebanon to a battlefield.”
Many politicians, especially from Lebanon’s Christian community, have criticized Hezbollah for risking war with Israel.
Peace-building expert Sonia Nakad said “the bigger the tragedy, the greater the division” in Lebanon.
In Lebanon, power is shared according to sectarian quotas, with communities so divided about the country’s past that events following 1943 are missing from official history books.
Each party “wants the other to be an exact copy of them to be able to co-exist, while they are opposites in everything,” she said.
“The Lebanese have yet to renounce using violence against each other, no matter how big their disagreements,” she said.
Foreign airlines have suspended or canceled flights to Beirut but many Lebanese expatriates are still pouring in, although some have cut their holidays short.
Rabab Abu Hamdan said she planned to go back to the Gulf after feeling “very stressed in the past few days.”
“Despite the difficult circumstances, Lebanon remains the best vacation destination,” she said.
US warns a famine in Sudan is on pace to be the deadliest in decades as the world looks elsewhere
- As most of the world paid attention to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and the larger Middle East, the Sudanese war quickly grew into the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with 11 million displaced
WASHINGTON: The newly confirmed famine at one of the sprawling camps for war-displaced people in Sudan’s Darfur region is growing uncontrolled as the country’s combatants block aid, and it threatens to grow bigger and deadlier than the world’s last major famine 13 years ago, US officials warned on Friday.
The US Agency for International Development, the UN World Food Program and other independent and government humanitarian agencies were intensifying calls for a ceasefire and aid access across Sudan. That’s after international experts in the Famine Review Committee formally confirmed Thursday that the starvation in at least one of three giant makeshift camps, holding up to 600,000 people displaced by Sudan’s more than yearlong war, had grown into a full famine.
Two US officials briefed reporters on their analysis of the crisis on Friday following the famine finding, which is only the third in the 20-year history of the Famine Review Committee. The US officials spoke on the condition of anonymity as the ground rules for their general briefing.
The last major famine, in Somalia, was estimated to have killed a quarter of a million people in 2011, half of them children under 5 years old.
The blocks that Sudan’s warring sides are putting on food and other aid for the civilians trapped in the Zamzam camp are realizing “the worst fears of the humanitarian community,” one of the US officials said.
War in the northern African country erupted in April 2023 when two rival generals, both with international backers, suddenly opened a deadly battle for control of Sudan’s capital, sidelining an existing civilian transitional government that Sudanese had hoped would bring stability to the country. On one side, the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, grew out of the Janjaweed militias notorious for their mass attacks, rape and forced displacement of civilians in Darfur in 2003.
As most of the world paid attention to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and the larger Middle East, the Sudanese war quickly grew into the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with 11 million displaced. Unlike the earlier war, acute hunger is almost countrywide.
Aid workers were last able to get humanitarian relief to the trapped civilians at the camps in Darfur in April. The RSF has the area under siege and is accused of attacking hospitals, camps and other civilian targets.
World Food Program director Cindy McCain urged the international community in a statement after the famine declaration to work for a ceasefire. “It is the only way we will reverse a humanitarian catastrophe that is destabilizing this entire region of Africa,” she said.
USAID Director Samantha Power stressed the famine was entirely man-made. Both sides, “enabled by external patrons, are using starvation as a weapon of war,” she said in a statement.
The US officials Friday pointed to Washington as the largest source of aid — the little that gets through — for Sudan. They countered questions about why the Biden administration was not using air drops or any of the other direct interventions by the US military to get food to people in Darfur that they were in Gaza, saying the terrain in Sudan was different.
The United States and Saudi Arabia have invited the two sides for ceasefire talks in Switzerland in August. The RSF leader said it planned to attend, while the military-controlled Sudanese government stated that any negotiation before implementing the Jeddah Declaration “wouldn’t be acceptable to the Sudanese people.”
The Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect Civilians passed last year meant to end the conflict, but neither side committed to its objectives.
International experts use set criteria to confirm the existence of famines. Formal declarations of famines are usually made by the countries themselves or the United Nations, and politics often slows such declarations.
