Can Iran’s IRGC avenge serial deaths of commanders and cadres in Syria and Lebanon?

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Posters depicting victims of an air strike on the consular annex of the Iranian embassy's headquarters in Damascus are displayed during a memorial service for them at the premises in the Syrian capital on April 3, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 14 July 2024
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Can Iran’s IRGC avenge serial deaths of commanders and cadres in Syria and Lebanon?

  • Experts divided on Tehran’s capacity for retaliation against suspected targeted killings by Israel
  • Prospect of all-out war in southern Lebanon compounds problems for Iran’s military leadership

LONDON: In one of his first statements since winning the runoff election earlier this month, Iran’s President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian indicated that militant groups across the Middle East would not allow Israel’s “criminal policies” toward the Palestinians to continue.

In a message on July 8 to Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah group, he said: “The Islamic Republic has always supported the resistance of the people of the region against the illegitimate Zionist regime.”

So far, however, Iran’s losses appear to outweigh greatly the cost it has been able to impose on the country suspected of inflicting them.




A handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shows him (R) and Iran's newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian attending a mourning ritual in Tehran late on July 12, 2024. (AFP)

Two months after Israel and Iran appeared to be on the brink of all-out war, a suspected Israeli airstrike near Syria’s northern city of Aleppo in June dealt another blow to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Saeed Abyar, who was in Syria on an “advisory mission,” according to a statement issued by the IRGC, died in an attack on June 3, bringing the total number of key IRGC figures killed in suspected Israeli strikes since Oct. 7 last year to 19.

Damascus accused Israel of orchestrating the strikes from the southeast of Aleppo. Israel, however, rarely comments on individual attacks.

 

 

It came just days after Israel launched air attacks on Syria’s central region as well as the coastal city of Baniyas on May 29, killing a child and injuring 10 civilians, according to Syrian state media.

“A closer look at the June 3 incident reveals that Israel targeted a copper factory and a weapons warehouse on the outskirts of Aleppo, attacking multiple times,” Francesco Schiavi, an Italy-based geopolitical analyst, told Arab News.

“In these confusing conditions, General Abyar was among several individuals near the impact site, making his death more likely an indirect consequence of an operation against Iranian infrastructure in Syria rather than an intended target of the Israeli attack, generally conducted with high-precision weapons.”

INNUMBERS

19 Officers of IRGC’s Quds Force branch killed in suspected Israeli strikes since Oct. 7, 2023.

8 IRGC officers killed in single strike on Iran’s embassy annex in Damascus on April 1.

Although Israel is accused of targeting numerous Iranian commanders and cadres on Syrian soil in the past nine months, the June 3 attack was the first to kill an IRGC commander since the April 1 strike on Iran’s embassy annex in Damascus.

That suspected Israeli strike eliminated eight IRGC officers, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the highest-ranking commander of the extraterritorial Quds Force to be killed since Qassem Soleimani died in a US drone strike in 2020.




Rescue workers search in the rubble of a building annexed to the Iranian embassy a day after an air strike in Damascus on April 2, 2024. (AFP)

Iran launched a massive retaliatory attack against Israel on April 13 — its first direct assault on Israeli territory, stoking fears of an all-out, region-wide conflict. The following day, IRGC chief Hossein Salami said his country “decided to create a new equation.”

“From now on, if Israel attacks Iranian interests, figures, and citizens anywhere, we will retaliate from Iran,” he said.

Observers, unsure how Iran might respond this time, remain on edge, especially as tensions mount in southern Lebanon, the stronghold of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, which has been trading cross-border fire with Israel since Oct. 8 last year.

“Tehran warned that a ‘new equation’ had been established whereby Iran would retaliate against any Israeli attacks on its interests in the region,” said Schiavi.




Smoke from Israeli bombardment billows in Kfarkila in southern Lebanon on July 12, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)

“The lack of precedents makes it challenging to predict what this renewed Iranian approach might entail in practical terms.”

As it has officially accused Israel of killing Abyar, Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specializing in the Middle East, believes the IRGC will now be “forced to respond” to the June 3 attack in order to bolster its deterrence — potentially setting off a new round of escalation.

“I understand that by this announcement and the threat to respond, Iran does not want the Israel Defense Forces to return to the equation before targeting the Iranian consulate in Syria,” when similar attacks had gone “unpunished,” Koulouriotis told Arab News.

Eldar Mamedov, a Brussels-based expert on the Middle East and Iran, believes the Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy annex in Damascus had “changed the deterrence equation to Tehran’s detriment.”




An Iranian ballistic missile lies on the shores of the Dead Sea after Iran launched drones and missiles toward Israel on April 13, 2024. (Reuters/File)

“Tehran was compelled to retaliate, but even then did so with caution — by forewarning Israel and the US through neighboring countries,” he told Arab News. “The aim was to send a message that Iran would not hesitate to strike Israel directly if it kept killing senior Iranian figures, in order to re-establish the deterrence.”

Mamedov added: “To understand what scenarios could prompt Iran to retaliate against Israel for the elimination of IRGC officers in Syria and Lebanon, we need to take into account the overall context of Iranian presence there.

“It is primarily about the ‘forward defense’ strategy through allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxy groups in Syria, the aim of which is to deter Israel from attacking Iran and its nuclear installations directly.”




Mourners join a funeral procession on July 10, 2024, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, for senior Hezbollah commander Yasser Nemr Qranbish, who was killed a day earlier in an Israeli airstrike that hit his car in Syria near the border with Lebanon. Qranbish was a former personal bodyguard of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, an official with the Lebanese militant group said. (AP)

Nevertheless, Mamedov believes Iran “is willing to avoid an all-out war with Israel and/or the US.”

The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19, along with the foreign minister and other senior officials, forced Tehran to bring forward its presidential elections, which had not been due until 2025.

“As Iran is immersed in preparing the ground for an inevitable leadership transition, it is wary of further regional destabilization,” said Mamedov. “I do not think that this fundamental calculus has changed.”

Schiavi concurred, saying that Iran’s current “domestic leadership crisis” means the government is now preoccupied with the leadership transition, making a fresh round of retaliatory action unlikely.

He noted Iran’s “longstanding blend of pragmatism and assertiveness in responding to regional developments,” citing “the carefully measured direct attack on Israel on April 13, which was intended to avoid plunging the two countries into open confrontation.”

Schiavi added: “Despite Tehran’s continued adherence to its strategy of supporting the pro-Iranian axis and maintaining continuity in its regional policy despite sudden political upheaval, the current circumstances make a new wave of attacks on Israel highly unlikely.”

For his part, Mamedov believes Iran will likely “be forced to abandon its caution if tensions between Israel and Hezbollah were to escalate into an open war.”

“Hezbollah is considered by Iran the most capable and effective of its allies in the Levant, with a degree of operational cooperation and ideological alignment that is not met in Tehran’s relations with other allies/proxies,” he said.

“A severely weakened Hezbollah would undermine a vital pillar of Tehran’s ‘forward defense’ strategy, and it is to be expected that it will give its support to the Lebanese group in case of an open war with Israel. However, that depends on how Hezbollah will perform in such a war.”


 

ALSO READ: Iran and Israel: From allies to deadly enemies

 

 


The past month has been particularly tense on the Lebanese border, intensifying fears of an all-out war that would send shockwaves throughout the wider region.

On June 11, an Israeli airstrike on the Lebanese village of Jouya killed a senior Hezbollah commander, Taleb Abdullah, and three fighters. A week later, Iran’s mission to the UN warned Israel about the consequences of going to war with its ally in Lebanon.




A Hezbollah leader speaks in Beirut's southern suburbs on June 12, 2024, during the funeral of Taleb Abdallah, known as Abu Taleb, a senior field commander of Hezbollah who was killed in an Israel strike, on June 1 at a location near the border in southern Lebanon. (AFP)

A little over two weeks later, on June 27, Hezbollah fired dozens of Katyusha rockets at a military base in northern Israel. The group’s leadership said the attack came “in response to the enemy attacks that targeted the city of Nabatieh and the village of Sohmor.”

Until Israel and Hamas reach a deal on a ceasefire in Gaza, Koulouriotis said, “the dangerous escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border” is an indicator that “we are closer than ever to war.”

“Tehran is directly concerned in light of any escalation that Hezbollah faces in Lebanon,” she said. “That is why I believe that Iran wants to keep the response card to the killing of its officer in Aleppo to be used during any Israeli military operation in southern Lebanon.”

Noting that officials in Iran are well aware of the US and Europe’s “great fear” of a large-scale escalation in the Middle East, she said “any Iranian military move will put greater pressure on the West, pushing them to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu’s government” in Israel.

Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, recently warned Israel that any offensive in Lebanon could spark a regional war involving Iran and its allies.

Considering current developments on the Lebanon-Israel border, Koulouriotis expects Iran’s response to Israel’s latest attack to be similar to its reaction to the embassy annex attack — “through swarms of drones and cruise missiles.”

“However, if Western diplomatic moves lead to reducing tension on the Lebanese-Israeli border, Iran may resort to a less severe response, and Iraqi Kurdistan may be a suitable place for an Iranian response,” she said




Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (Pool/AFP)

Schiavi, however, dismisses the idea that Iran “intended to retaliate against every attack on an Iranian target in Syria (or elsewhere) with a direct attack on Israel, especially given the potential accidental nature of General Abyar’s death.”

“The ramifications of the Gaza war highlight the centrality of Syria in Tehran’s Middle East strategy, and this means that Iran will remain committed to maintaining considerable influence in the country for the foreseeable future,” he said.

“Should the conflict escalate further, or should Israel launch a broader assault on other Iranian assets or personnel in Syria, Tehran may feel compelled to respond forcefully, risking the very conflict it seeks to avoid.”

For now, the general consensus is that the actions of the IRGC will be more important than the harsh words of President-elect Pezeshkian or any other regime official in judging Iran’s willingness or ability to challenge Israel militarily.
 

 


Iran, US to resume nuclear talks on Sunday after postponement

Updated 28 min 46 sec ago
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Iran, US to resume nuclear talks on Sunday after postponement

  • Fourth round of indirect negotiations, initially scheduled for May 3 in Rome, postponed

DUBAI: Iran has agreed to hold a fourth round of nuclear talks with the United States on Sunday in Oman, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said on Friday, adding that the negotiations were advancing.

US President Donald Trump, who withdrew Washington from a 2015 deal between Tehran and world powers meant to curb its nuclear activity, has threatened to bomb Iran if no new deal is reached to resolve the long unresolved dispute.

Western countries say Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran accelerated after the US walkout from the now moribund 2015 accord, is geared toward producing weapons, whereas Iran insists it is purely for civilian purposes.

“The negotiations are moving forward, and naturally, the further we go, the more consultations and reviews are needed,” Aragchi said in remarks carried by Iranian state media.

“The delegations require more time to examine the issues that are raised. But what is important is that we are on a forward-moving path and gradually entering into the details.”

The fourth round of indirect negotiations, initially scheduled for May 3 in Rome, was postponed, with mediator Oman citing “logistical reasons.”

Aragchi said a planned visit to Qatar and Saudi Arabia on Saturday was in line with “continuous consultations” with neighboring countries to “address their concerns and mutual interests” about the nuclear issue. 


No milk, no diapers: US aid cuts hit Syrian refugees in Lebanon

Updated 56 min 26 sec ago
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No milk, no diapers: US aid cuts hit Syrian refugees in Lebanon

  • Merhi and her family are among the millions of people affected by Trump’s decision to freeze USAID funding to humanitarian programs
  • Since the freeze, the UNHCR and WFP have had to limit the amount of aid they provide

BEIRUT: Amal Al-Merhi’s twin 10-month-old daughters often go without milk or diapers.

She feeds them a mix of cornstarch and water, because milk is too expensive. Instead of diapers, Merhi ties plastic bags around her babies’ waists.

The effect of their poverty is clear, she said.

“If you see one of the twins, you would not believe she is 10-months-old,” Merhi said in a phone interview. “She is so small and soft.”

The 20-year-old Syrian mother lives in a tent with her family of five in an informal camp in Bar Elias in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

She fled Syria’s civil war in 2013 and has been relying on cash assistance from the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR to get by.

But that has ended.

Merhi and her family are among the millions of people affected by US President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze USAID funding to humanitarian programs.

Since the freeze, the UNHCR and the World Food Program (WFP) have had to limit the amount of aid they provide to some of the world’s most vulnerable people in countries from Lebanon to Chad and Ukraine.

In February, the WFP was forced to cut the number of Syrian refugees receiving cash assistance to 660,000 from 830,000, meaning the organization is reaching 76 percent of the people it planned to target, a spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, the WFP’s shock responsive safety net that supports Lebanese citizens cut its beneficiaries to 40,000 from 162,000 people, the spokesperson added.

The UNHCR has been forced to reduce all aspects of its operations in Lebanon, said Ivo Freijsen, UNHCR’s country representative, in an interview.

The agency cut 347,000 people from the UNHCR component of a WFP-UNHCR joint program as of April, a spokesperson said. Every family had been receiving $45 monthly from UNHCR, they added.

The group can support 206,000 Syrian refugees until June, when funds will dry up, they also said.

“We need to be very honest to everyone that the UNHCR of the past that could be totally on top of issues in a very expedient manner with lots of quality and resources — that is no longer the case,” Freijsen said. “We regret that sincerely.”

BAD TO WORSE
By the end of March, the UNHCR had enough money to cover only 17 percent of its planned global operations, and the budget for Lebanon is only 14 percent funded.

Lebanon is home to the largest refugee population per capita in the world.

Roughly 1.5 million Syrians, half of whom are formally registered with the UNHCR, live alongside some 4 million Lebanese.

Islamist-led rebels ousted former Syrian leader Bashar Assad in December, installing their own government and security forces. Since then there have been outbreaks of deadly sectarian violence, and fears among minorities are rising.

In March, hundreds of Syrians fled to Lebanon after killings targeted the minority Alawite sect.

Lebanon has been in the grips of unyielding crises since its economy imploded in 2019. The war between Israel and armed group Hezbollah is expected to wipe billions of dollars from the national wealth as well, the United Nations has said.

Economic malaise has meant fewer jobs for everyone, including Syrian refugees.

“My husband works one day and then sits at home for 10,” Merhi said. “We need help. I just want milk and diapers for my kids.”

DANGEROUS CHOICES
The UNHCR has been struggling with funding cuts for years, but the current cuts are “much more rapid and sizeable” and uncertainty prevails, said Freijsen.

“A lot of other questions are still to be answered, like, what will be the priorities? What will still be funded?” Freijsen asked.

Syrian refugees and vulnerable communities in Lebanon might be forced to make risky or dangerous choices, he said.

Some may take out loans. Already about 80 percent of Syrian refugees are in debt to pay for rent, groceries and medical bills, Freijsen said. Children may also be forced to work.

“Women may be forced into commercial sex work,” he added.

Issa Idris, a 50-year-old father of three, has not received any cash assistance from UNHCR since February and has been forced to take on debt to buy food.

“They cut us off with no warning,” he said.

He now owes a total of $3,750, used to pay for food, rent and medicine, and he has no idea how he will pay it back.

He cannot work because of an injury, but his 18-year-old son sometimes finds work as a day laborer.

“We are lucky. We have someone who can work. Many do not,” he said.

Merhi too has fallen into debt. The local grocer is refusing to lend her any more money, and last month power was cut until the family paid the utility bill

She and her husband collect and sell scrap metal to buy food.

“We are adults. We can eat anything,” she said, her voice breaking. “The kids cannot. It is not their fault.”


Kurdish PKK says held ‘successful’ meeting on disbanding

Updated 09 May 2025
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Kurdish PKK says held ‘successful’ meeting on disbanding

  • The PKK will share “full and detailed information with regard to the outcome of this congress very soon,” it said
  • In February, Ocalan urged his fighters to disarm and disband

ISTANBUL: The outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) held a “successful” meeting this week with a view to disarming and dissolving, the Kurdish agency ANF, which is close to the armed movement, announced on Friday.
The meeting resulted in “decisions of historic importance concerning the PKK’s activities, based on the call” of founder Abdullah Ocalan, who called on the movement in February to dissolve.
The congress, which was held between Monday and Wednesday, took place in the “Media Defense Zones” — a term used by the movement to designate the Kandil mountains of northern Iraq where the PKK military command is located, the agency reported.
The PKK will share “full and detailed information with regard to the outcome of this congress very soon,” it said.
In February, Ocalan urged his fighters to disarm and disband, ending a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.
In his historic call — which took the form of a letter — Ocalan urged the PKK to hold a congress to formalize the decision.
Two days later, the PKK announced a ceasefire, saying it was ready to convene a congress but said “for this to happen, a suitable secure environment must be created,” insisting it would only succeed if Ocalan were to “personally direct and lead it.”
The PKK leadership is holed up in Kurdish-majority mountainous northern Iraq where Turkish forces have staged multiple air strikes in recent years, targeting the group which is also blacklisted by Washington and Brussels.


Drone strikes hit Port Sudan for sixth straight day: army source

Updated 09 May 2025
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Drone strikes hit Port Sudan for sixth straight day: army source

  • The port city has been hit by daily drone strikes since Sunday
  • The long-range attacks have damaged several key facilities

PORT SUDAN: Drone strikes hit Port Sudan for a sixth straight day Friday, an army source said, blaming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, at war with the regular army since April 2023.
“Our air defenses intercepted some of the enemy drones which were targeting sites in the city,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Witnesses reported strikes across Port Sudan, seat of the army-backed government and the country’s main aid hub.
The port city, which had been seen as a safe haven from the devastating conflict between the army and the RSF, has been hit by daily drone strikes since Sunday.
The long-range attacks have damaged several key facilities, including the country’s sole international airport, its largest working fuel depot and the city’s main power station.
The port city is the main entry point for humanitarian aid into Sudan, and UN chief Antonio Guterres warned the attacks “threaten to increase humanitarian needs and further complicate aid operations in the country,” his spokesman said.
More than two years of fighting have killed tens of thousands of people and uprooted 13 million in what the United Nations describes as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.


Israel won’t be involved in new Gaza aid plan, only in security, US envoy says

Updated 09 May 2025
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Israel won’t be involved in new Gaza aid plan, only in security, US envoy says

  • Ambassador Mike Huckabee said several partners had already committed to taking part in the aid arrangement
  • “There are nonprofit organizations that will be a part of the leadership“

JERUSALEM: A US-backed mechanism for distributing aid into Gaza should take effect soon, Washington’s ambassador to Israel said on Friday ahead of President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East, but he gave few details.
Gaza’s residents are facing a growing humanitarian crisis with Israel enforcing a months-long blockade on aid supplies to the small Palestinian enclave in the third year of its war against militant group Hamas.
Ambassador Mike Huckabee said several partners had already committed to taking part in the aid arrangement but declined to name them, saying details would be released in the coming days.
“There has been a good initial response,” the former Republican governor told reporters at the embassy in Jerusalem.
“There are nonprofit organizations that will be a part of the leadership,” he said, adding that other organizations and governments would also need to be involved, though not Israel.
Tikva Forum, a hawkish Israeli group representing some relatives of hostages held in Gaza, criticized the announcement, saying aid deliveries should be conditional on Hamas releasing the 59 captives in Gaza.
Trump, who wants to broker a deal that would see Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations, will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates next week.
Trump had teased a major announcement ahead of the trip. It was unclear if that was what Huckabee announced on Friday.
Anticipation has been building about a new aid plan for Gaza, laid waste by 19 months of an Israeli military campaign against Hamas that has destroyed much of the infrastructure and displaced most of its 2.3 million population several times.
“It will not be perfect, especially in the early days,” Huckabee said. “It is a logistical challenge to make this work.”
European leaders and aid groups have criticized a plan by Israel, which has prevented aid from entering Gaza since breaking a ceasefire with Hamas in March, for private companies to take over humanitarian distributions in the enclave.
Israel has accused agencies including the United Nations of allowing aid to fall into the hands of Hamas, which it has said is seizing supplies intended for civilians and given them to its own forces or selling them to raise funds.

CRITICISM OF AID PLANS
“The Israelis are going to be involved in providing necessary military security because it is a war zone, but they will not be involved in the distribution of the food or even bringing the food into Gaza,” Huckabee told a press conference.
Asked whether the supply of aid hinged on a ceasefire being restored, Huckabee said: “The humanitarian aid will not depend on anything other than our ability to get the food into Gaza.”
The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) on Friday criticized emerging plans to take over distribution of aid in Gaza floated by both Israel and the United States, saying this would increase suffering for children and families.
A proposal is circulating among the aid community for a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation that would distribute food from four “Secure Distribution Sites,” resembling plans announced by Israel earlier this week, but drew criticism that it would effectively worsen displacement among the Gaza population.
Huckabee said there would be an “initial number” of distribution centers that could feed “perhaps over a million people” before being scaled up to ultimately reach two million.
“Private security” would be responsible for the safety of workers getting into the distribution centers and in the distribution of the food itself, Huckabee said, declining to comment on rules of engagement for security personnel.
“Everything would be done in accordance with international law,” he said.
Mediation efforts by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt have not been successful in implementing a second phase of the ceasefire. Israel demands the total disarmament of Hamas, which the Islamist group rejects.
Hamas has said it is willing to free all remaining hostages seized by its gunmen in attacks on communities in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, and agree to a permanent ceasefire if Israel pulls out completely from Gaza.
Israel has said it plans to expand its military campaign in Gaza, which has prompted UN warnings of imminent famine confronting its population.
Hamas’ attacks on October 7, 2023 killed 1,200 people and 251 were taken hostage back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies. Israel’s campaign has killed more than 52,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to Hamas-run health authorities.