Saudi economic growth to outstrip global average in 2025: IMF

The growth forecast for Saudi Arabia has been affected by oil production cuts. Shutterstock
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Updated 17 July 2024
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Saudi economic growth to outstrip global average in 2025: IMF

  • Global economy is in a “sticky spot,” according to the IMF

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s economic growth is expected to outpace the global average in 2025 according to the latest International Monetary Fund study.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook update puts the Kingdom’s output increase at 4.7 percent next year – above the 3.3 percent forecast for the planet as a whole.

The figure for Saudi Arabia is down from an estimate released in April which anticipated a 6 percent growth rate for 2025.

The IMF also scaled back its 2024 projection for the Kingdom, shifting from 2.6 percent in its earlier forecast to 1.7 percent in its most recent report.

The Washington-based institution described the global economy as being in a “sticky spot,” although it maintained its earlier calculation that worldwide output would increase at a rate of 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025.

“The growth forecast for 2024 in Saudi Arabia has been revised downward by 0.9 percentage point; the adjustment reflects mainly the extension of oil production cuts,” the IMF said. 

“Varied momentum in activity at the turn of the year has somewhat narrowed the output divergence across economies as cyclical factors wane and activity becomes better aligned with its potential. Services price inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization,” the July update stated.

The IMF added: “Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. To manage these risks and preserve growth, the policy mix should be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.”

Global economic snapshot: divergent paths ahead

Across major economies, contrasting trends defined economic forecasts heading into 2024 and beyond.

Earlier in the year, the US confronted a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown, driven by easing consumer spending and adverse net trade dynamics. 

Growth projections for 2024 have been revised to 2.6 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than projected in April, with expectations for 2025 further declining to 1.9 percent.

Tightening fiscal policies and cooling labor markets are poised to exert further pressure. Inflation remains stubborn, particularly in services, delaying potential monetary policy adjustments. Therefore, it is lagging behind other advanced economies in easing measures.

Europe’s recovery hinges on robust performances in the services sector, with growth expected to reach 0.9 percent in 2024, rising to 1.5 percent in 2025. 

Strengthened consumer demand, bolstered by higher real wages and improved financing conditions, supports this optimistic outlook. However, persistent weaknesses in manufacturing, notably in Germany, suggest a nuanced recovery across sectors.

China’s economy continues to exhibit resilience, with a revised growth forecast of 5 percent for 2024, driven by a resurgence in domestic consumption and robust export performance. 

Yet expansion is anticipated to moderate to 4.5 percent in 2025 and beyond as the country grapples with demographic shifts and slowing productivity gains.

Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow by 4.3 percent in 2024, driven by a strong performance in Asia, particularly China and India. 

India’s growth forecast has been revised upward to 7 percent for 2024, higher than April’s projection of 6.8 percent reflecting improved private consumption and positive carryover effects from 2023.  

The UK anticipates modest growth of 0.7 percent in 2024, expanding to 1.5 percent in 2025. Economic prospects are shaped by ongoing fiscal restraint and residual impacts of earlier inflationary pressures on consumer and investment activities.

Japan’s revised growth forecast for 2024 is 0.7 percent from 0.9 percent in April, influenced by transient supply disruptions and subdued private investment.

Nevertheless, robust wage settlements are anticipated to fuel a resurgence in private consumption by the latter half of the year.

Regional impact and global trade

The IMF report noted that oil production and regional conflicts continue to weigh heavily on economic prospects in the Middle East and Central Asia. 

Alongside Saudi Arabia, Sudan’s economic outlook has been markedly revised downward due to persistent conflict. 

Conversely, there have been upward revisions in other regions, such as Brazil, where reconstruction efforts buoy growth prospects following recent flooding and structural factors like increased hydrocarbon production.

“World trade growth is expected to recover to about 3.25 percent annually in 2024–25 and align with global GDP growth again,” the IMF added. 

The initial increase seen in the first quarter of this year is likely to slow down due to ongoing subdued manufacturing activity. 

Despite a notable rise in cross-border trade restrictions affecting it between distant geopolitical blocs, projections suggest that the global trade-to-GDP ratio will remain stable.

Inflation and monetary policy

Global disinflation efforts are facing headwinds, with services price inflation complicating monetary policy normalization. 

The report highlighted the persistence of higher-than-average inflation in services costs, which has tempered the disinflation in goods prices.

“The revised forecast for advanced economies is for the pace of disinflation to slow in 2024 and 2025. That is because inflation in prices for services is now expected to be more persistent and commodity prices higher,” the international organization said.

It added that the gradual cooling of labor markets and an expected decline in energy costs should bring headline inflation back to target by the end of 2025. 

Price increases are anticipated to persist at elevated levels in emerging markets and developing economies, falling more gradually compared to advanced countries.

Due in part to declining energy costs, inflation has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels for the typical emerging market and developing economy.


Yemen and Iraq lead call for more crisis finance

Updated 16 November 2024
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Yemen and Iraq lead call for more crisis finance

BAKU: A group of conflict-affected countries led by Iraq and Yemen is pushing at the COP29 climate talks to double financial aid to more than $20 billion a year to combat the natural disaster and security crises they face.
States mired in conflict or its aftermath have struggled to access private investment, because they are seen as too risky. That means UN funds are even more critical to their people, many of whom have been displaced by war and weather.
In response, the COP29 Azerbaijan presidency on Friday launched launch a new “Network of Climate-vulnerable Countries,” including Iraq, Yemen, Burundi, Chad, Sierra Leone, Somalia and Timor-Leste. They all belong to the g7+, an intergovernmental group of fragile countries that first sent the appeal.
The network aims to advocate as a group with climate finance institutions, build capacity in member states so they can absorb more finance, and create country platforms so investors can more easily find high-impact projects in which to invest, said think tank ODI Global, which helped the countries create the network.
“My hope is it will create a real platform for the countries in need,” said Abdullahi Khalif, chief climate negotiator for Somalia.


Half of UK businesses impacted by Middle East conflict

Updated 15 November 2024
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Half of UK businesses impacted by Middle East conflict

  • British Chambers of Commerce survey shows companies faced increased costs, shipping disruption

LONDON: Half of British businesses say they have been affected by the conflict in the Middle East, according to a survey from the British Chambers of Commerce.

The findings show that on top of the devastating human impact of the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, the economic repercussions are being felt around the world.

Houthi militants in Yemen began attacking shipping in the Red Sea shortly after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks sparked Israel’s war on Gaza.

The militants claim they are targeting ships linked to Israel and its allies in solidarity with Palestinians. The result has been a huge reduction in traffic through one of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes.

The BCC said shipping container rates have risen sharply since the conflict began. The cost of shipping a 40-ft (12-meter) container from Shanghai to Rotterdam has risen from just over $1,000 at the start of the conflict to just under $4,000 now. Prices peaked at more than $8,000 in July.

Most shipping companies operating between Asia and Europe have opted to send vessels around the longer Cape Horn route rather than through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

In the survey of about 650 businesses published this week by the BCC’s Insights Unit, UK firms said the conflict had led to increased costs, shipping disruption and delays, and uncertainty over oil prices. 

Half of those asked said the conflict had affected them, compared to just over a quarter in a similar survey in October 2023. This suggests more businesses worldwide have been affected by the fighting the longer it has gone on.

William Bain, the BCC’s head of trade policy, said: “Alongside the grim human impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the situation continues to have economic reverberations around the world.

“The effect on businesses here in the UK has continued to ratchet up the longer the fighting has continued.

“If the current situation persists, then it becomes more likely that the cost pressures will build further.”

Economists have warned that while the effects on the global economy have so far been largely limited to shipping costs and delays, further escalation could have a much wider impact.

The biggest concern would be a disruption to oil and gas supplies that would lead to a surge in global energy prices, fueling inflation.


COP29 unveils Baku Call initiative to bridge climate finance and peace for vulnerable communities

Updated 15 November 2024
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COP29 unveils Baku Call initiative to bridge climate finance and peace for vulnerable communities

  • Elshad Iskandarov highlighted the 450 million people who live in regions simultaneously impacted by conflict and climate vulnerability

BAKU: The world’s most vulnerable communities stand at the heart of the newly launched “Baku Call on Climate Action for Peace, Relief, and Recovery,” unveiled on Friday at COP29. 

The initiative addresses the urgent need to tackle the interconnected challenges of climate change, conflict and humanitarian crises. 

Backed by key nations from both the Global North and South — including Egypt, Italy, Germany, Uganda, the UAE and the UK — it introduces the Baku Climate and Peace Action Hub as a platform for driving peace-sensitive climate actions and unlocking vital financial support for affected regions.

Speaking to Arab News, Ambassador Elshad Iskandarov of the COP29 Presidency articulated the stakes clearly, pointing to the 450 million people who live in regions simultaneously impacted by conflict and climate vulnerability. 

 

“These compounded crises not only strain existing resources but also hinder the effective delivery of climate finance,” he said. 

The Baku Call seeks to address this by providing a centralized mechanism to coordinate efforts across stakeholders — governments, UN agencies, think tanks and peace-building organizations. “The hub will serve as a unified entry point for vulnerable nations, ensuring streamlined access to climate finance and technical support,” he said.

The initiative builds on established frameworks such as COP27’s Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace and COP28’s Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery, and Peace, while adding practical innovations. 

Iskandarov highlighted a digital portal in development that will provide a clear overview of existing climate finance mechanisms, application requirements and best practices. 

“Imagine a country facing daily challenges of conflict, development and climate impact. Without proper guidance, navigating six to nine funding channels becomes nearly impossible,” he said. The portal aims to close this gap by strengthening national capacities and offering tools to access and manage climate funding effectively.

A central focus of the initiative lies in developing pilot projects tailored to conflict-affected areas, where conventional funding approaches often fall short. “In regions with strong non-state violent actors, we must ensure that funds reach the communities in need without falling into the wrong hands,” Iskandarov said. 

To achieve this, the hub will facilitate close collaboration with UN agencies and local communities, designing projects that integrate peacebuilding goals and adhere to stringent oversight standards.

Partnerships have been instrumental in shaping the initiative. The ambassador commended the co-lead nations for their shared commitment to inclusivity and cooperation, noting how countries such as the UAE, Egypt and the UK brought their experiences as prior COP hosts to strengthen the effort.

“This is not about initiative nationalism,” he said. “We’ve drawn lessons from the pandemic, where global unity was key, and applied them to forge a collaborative approach to the climate and peace nexus.”

The Baku Call also seeks to shift the broader narrative around climate and peace. Iskandarov expressed a long-term vision where this intersection is no longer synonymous with crisis and destruction but instead embodies hope and development. “Our ultimate goal is to create a future where the nexus of climate and peace signifies resilience and harmony, not despair,” he said.


Gulf’s record FDI inflows growing the pie for all, says Bahrain’s economic strategy chief

Updated 15 November 2024
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Gulf’s record FDI inflows growing the pie for all, says Bahrain’s economic strategy chief

MANAMA: Gulf countries’ success in attracting foreign investments is a win-win for the region, a senior business strategy expert has told Arab News.

In an interview on the second day of the Bahrain International Airshow, Nada Al-Saeed, chief of strategy at the Bahrain Economic Development Board, described the Middle East’s growing ability to attract funding as “fantastic,” noting that it brings greater attention to the region.

In 2023, Saudi Arabia secured foreign direct investment inflows of SR96 billion ($25.6 billion), 16 percent higher than its target amount, while Bahrain received a record $1.7 billion over the same period, marking an 55 percent annual increase.

“When Saudi Arabia or the UAE does very well, it means that we could also benefit from that. I think that we often see the region as very competitive. I like to see it as a very collaborative and I think that everybody could benefit. If the pie gets larger, each individual’s share will also get larger.” she said. 

Reflecting on Bahrain’s FDI increase, Al-Saeed said that figure relates to the Economic Development Board’s achievements.

“If we are looking at the foreign direct investments’ statistics and results, we will see Bahrain actually attracted a much larger number than that, but this represents a record number for the EDB,” she said.

Nada Al-Saeed, chief of strategy at the Bahrain Economic Development Board. Supplied

Al-Saeed noted that funding secured in 2023 went to investment projects across all of Bahrain’s priority sectors, which include financial services, communication and technology, and manufacturing, as well as logistics and tourism,

“These are the key priority non-oil sectors identified by the government, and they are the focus of the EDB. The board has dedicated teams for each sector to promote and attract investments in these areas,” she said.

She also said that these projects have contributed to job creation in the country, and she expected this investment trend to continue.

Explaining how her organization’s strategy aligns with the country’s economic vision for 2030, Al-Saeed said that the EDB, as the nation’s investment promotion agency, works very closely with a wider ecosystem of stakeholders known as “Team Bahrain.” 

This group has tailored its investment promotion strategies to mirror the government’s national economic plans.

“Back in October 2021, the government launched the economic recovery plan where it identified key priority sectors, and the EDB aligned to that in order to ensure that we operate as a cohesive unit, and we are able to attract the right investments that will further stimulate the development and growth of our country,” the chief officer said.

Discussing the unique advantages Bahrain offers, Al-Saeed highlighted the country’s success over the past decades in attracting regional investors that now play a vital role in the nation’s economy.

“If we look at our foreign direct investment statistics, we will see the majority of our foreign investments come from the GCC region, and that is predominantly in the financial services sector, and this is a trend that we have seen since the 70s, where Bahrain managed to attract a lot of regional capital in the financial services sector from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and others, of course.” she said.

“There are many advantages because we treat GCC investors like Bahrainis when it comes to the processes of establishing business activities,” Al-Saeed added.

In addition, Bahrain has a wide range of incentives that are offered to investors.

One of these is the work of the country's labor fund, Tamkeen, which offers businesses the opportunity to support hiring local talent, as well as training and upskilling them to meet the needs of those companies.

Al-Saeed highlighted recent regulatory changes aimed at making Bahrain more attractive to global businesses and startups, and emphasized that significant efforts have been made to ensure the state remains both competitive and conducive to investments and business growth.

“Maybe one of the key, or most recent initiatives that is worth highlighting, is the Golden License program that was launched back in April 2023, which aims to provide streamlined services to strategic investment projects that are valued at $50 million or that creates 500 jobs here in Bahrain,” she said.

The chief officer added that through this initiative, projects and companies can benefit from expedited services when it comes to getting approvals, licenses or even access to decision makers. 

“This has been very instrumental in terms of ensuring that we provide high-class services to investors,” said Al-Saeed, noting that nine projects have been granted Golden License status since the initiative was launched.

She further said that the total of those projects is valued at $2.4 billion, with investors coming from various sectors and different regional and global countries, including Bahrain.

In response to a question about the role of the aviation sector in the EDB’s investment strategy,  Al-Saeed stated that it helps create a conducive investment environment, as it is what connects Bahrain with the rest of the world.

“This is not just in terms of the movement of people but also in transporting goods and service through air cargo. So, it is very important; as we do not target just the market that is within our geographic boundaries, but we aim to serve a much wider area and catchment area,” she said.


Saudi Arabia’s demand for apartments pushes new mortgages over $16bn

Updated 15 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s demand for apartments pushes new mortgages over $16bn

RIYADH: Banks in Saudi Arabia granted SR60.92 billion ($16.24 billion) in residential mortgages in the first nine months of 2024, an annual rise of 4.88 percent.

The data was released by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, and it showed the bulk of the loans — constituting 64 percent or SR38.85 billion — was allocated for house purchases.

This segment did witness a 3.38 percent dip year on year, with its proportion of total loans shrinking from the 69 percent seen during the same period of 2023.

Demand for apartments surged, capturing 31 percent of total mortgages, up from 25 percent a year ago, as this category of lending reached SR18.6 billion.

This shift represents a 26.8 percent growth, underscoring the increasing preference for apartment ownership amid urbanization and demographic changes.

Additionally, loans for land purchases showed a promising trajectory, achieving an annual growth rate of 8.26 percent and amounting to SR3.5 billion, which signals a sustained interest in land investment across the Kingdom.

The rise in new residential bank loans across Saudi Arabia is being driven by a blend of population growth, evolving mortgage policies, and increasing interest in apartment living.

According to a recent report from online real estate platform Sakan, the Kingdom’s population surged by four million over the past five years, with demand for housing climbing in response.

While this trend fuels the broader housing market, apartments have become a prominent focus, reflecting changing demographics and affordability needs.

The growth of the expatriate population, which expanded from 9.9 million in 2010 to 13.4 million in 2022 and now makes up over 40 percent of the population, also adds pressure on the rental market, particularly in major cities.

The government’s push for greater home ownership through buyer-friendly mortgage policies is helping fuel this apartment demand. 

Favorable mortgage options and the recent introduction of the Premium Residency Visa, often dubbed the “Saudi Green Card,” allow foreign investors to enter the market with purchases over SR4 million, fostering interest in upscale residential investments.

Additionally, the value proposition of apartments is clear, as with SR1 million, buyers can access apartment sizes that vary by city — for instance, around 131 sq. meters in North Riyadh to a more spacious 333 sq. meters in Dammam, according to the report.

Saudi Arabia’s liberalized foreign ownership policies and affordable mortgage terms further boost demand, particularly for apartments in desirable areas.

The high rental yields offered by apartments in Saudi Arabia also attract investors, with two- and three-bedroom apartments in Riyadh delivering yields of 9 to 10 percent, and even higher returns in Jeddah, where a two-bedroom unit yields 11.7 percent.

These returns are notably higher than apartment yields in neighboring Gulf cities, where they average between 5 to 6 percent in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha.

High rental yields not only make apartments attractive as long-term investments but also help offset rising property costs, driving both end-users and investors to favor this category in a market characterized by shifting residential preferences.

According to the report, the surge is also driven by the rapid evolution of real estate technology.

Platforms like Sakan are reshaping the real estate landscape by enhancing transparency, streamlining property transactions, and providing data-driven insights for buyers and investors alike.

Leveraging local knowledge and international expertise, these platforms are supporting the sector’s growth by simplifying access to property listings, improving market transparency, and facilitating faster transaction times.

As property technology continues to integrate into the Saudi market, it is poised to play a pivotal role in sustaining the momentum of residential lending and meeting the needs of a tech-savvy, expanding population.