What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon

Israel has struck southern Lebanon in retaliation for cross-border attacks by Hezbollah. (AFP)
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Updated 13 August 2024
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What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon

  • Hurried departure of visitors and diplomats causes war jitters as Lebanese await Hezbollah retaliation for Israeli killing of commander
  • All-out war could wipe 25 percent of Lebanon’s already weak GDP and result in shortages of basic commodities, warns economist

BEIRUT: As Lebanon faces the increasing possibility of an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel, it also confronts a perfect storm of crises, ranging from the economic to the diplomatic.

The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite group has traded near-daily fire with the Israeli military in support of its ally Hamas since the Oct. 7 attack last year led by the Palestinian militant group on Israel triggered a military assault on the Gaza Strip.

In recent days, calls by Arab and Western governments and embassies for their nationals to leave Lebanon immediately have greatly heightened concerns. The German Foreign Ministry has expressed its alarm at the “false sense of security” among citizens, and warned of severe consequences if the confrontation escalates into a full-scale war.

The US Embassy in Beirut said on Friday that it “encourages those who wish to depart Lebanon to book any ticket available to them” while urging US citizens who choose not to depart Lebanon “to prepare contingency plans for emergencies and be prepared to shelter in place for an extended period.”




Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the outskirts of the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Hamam on August 9, 2024. (AFP)

The risk of the conflict expanding in the Middle East has also led to more airlines, including Air Algerie and Air India, suspending flights to Lebanon. Britain has advised its airlines “not to enter Lebanese airspace from Aug. 8 until Nov. 4,” citing “a potential risk to aviation from military activity.”

Fear of escalation in the wake of two killings at the end of last month attributed to Israel — Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s senior military commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut — has driven thousands of Lebanese expatriates to flee the country.

Many had arrived just weeks earlier to spend the summer with family, but now, urged by foreign embassies, they have hastily packed their bags, leaving behind a country on the brink.




Fire sweep over a car targeted by an Israeli strike in the southern city of Sidon on August 9, 2024. (AFP)

“This is Lebanon. Nothing has changed. We are used to it,” said one of the departing expatriates, reflecting the resigned attitude of someone who knew the risks of both staying back in the country and catching a flight out of Beirut.

The exodus of expatriates has struck a devastating blow to Lebanon’s economy. As the primary lifeline that sustains the nation, their departure spells disaster for small and medium enterprises, especially in the tourism sector. Jean Bayruti, secretary-general of the Federation of Tourism Unions in Lebanon, said: “If we sacrifice the tourism sector this year, we will have sacrificed Lebanon.”

Lebanon’s economy, already fragile and weakened by years of political instability, is now at greater risk. The World Bank had cautiously predicted a slight economic growth of 0.2 percent for 2023, supported by remittances and tourism. However, the situation has drastically changed.

The national currency has lost 95 percent of its value since the economy’s collapse in 2019, with more than 80 percent of the population now living below the poverty line.




In recent days, calls by Arab and Western governments and embassies for their nationals to leave Lebanon immediately have greatly heightened concerns. (AFP)

Jassem Ajaka, a Lebanese economist, warned that the low-intensity war in southern Lebanon is eroding the economy. “If the strikes expand, the situation will be more costly, as insurance rates and general prices will rise, and black-market traders will benefit,” he said, referring to operators in the underground economy.

He believes that losses in the Lebanese tourism industry could exceed $2 billion, compounded by disruptions in imports and banking transactions. In the event of an all-out war involving Israeli attacks on Lebanon’s creaky infrastructure, the damage could be catastrophic, Ajaka said.

“Gross domestic product losses could reach 24-25 percent, businesses and hospitals would be affected, and there could be shortages of basic commodities such as wheat and fuel.”

The cross-border violence since last October has killed at least 565 people in Lebanon, mostly combatants, but also at least 116 civilians, according to an AFP tally.

INNUMBERS

  • 95% Loss in Lebanese currency value since 2019 economic collapse.
  • 80%+ Population of Lebanon now living below the poverty line.
  • 565 People, including fighters, killed in Lebanon since October 2023.

On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, according to army figures. Tens of thousands of residents have been displaced by fighting from both sides of the Blue Line — the demarcation line dividing Lebanon from Israel and the Golan Heights.

Lebanon is deeply divided in its response to the escalating tensions. While some believe that the country can avoid the worst of the conflict, others are already experiencing its harsh realities.

Entire towns in southern Lebanon have been wiped out by retaliatory Israeli military strikes, resulting in the displacement of tens of thousands of families.




A televised speech by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah is transmitted on large screens as fighters and mourners attend the funeral ceremony of slain top commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut’s southern suburbs on August 1, 2024. (AFP)

On Friday, separate Israeli attacks killed two Hezbollah fighters in Naqoura and two Hamas members in Sidon, including the Palestinian group’s security official in the Ain Al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp. It was the first time that the town, 44 km from Beirut, had been targeted.

Israeli drones were seen flying over Lebanese villages along the border, using loudspeakers to broadcast messages in Arabic against Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In a televised address at Shukr’s funeral on Aug. 1, Nasrallah said that Hezbollah was “paying the price for its support for Gaza and the Palestinian people,” but also declared an “open battle on all fronts.”

The general consensus in Beirut is that Lebanese government officials have limited options for avoiding a catastrophe. “The most Lebanese officials can do is resort to lobbying diplomacy to prevent Israel from destroying Lebanon,” one analyst, speaking anonymously, told Arab News. “They are unable to influence the course of developments when it comes to Hezbollah and Israel.”




A man walks on an overpass beneath a giant billboard that reads “Enough, we are tired, Lebanon doesn’t want war” on a street in Beirut on August 7, 2024. (AFP)

The situation is vastly different from the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, with fewer safe routes for those seeking to flee. Many Lebanese people now consider areas with Christian, Druze, or Sunni majorities as relatively safe, unlike the Shiite-majority regions that are closely associated with Hezbollah.

For many, the threat of war is an all-too-familiar reality. Mohammed Sabra, who lives in Beirut’s southern suburbs, did not try to hide his frustration.

“We are controlled, not chosen. Israel doesn’t need a pretext to attack Lebanon. All I can do is hope for things to stay under control, because I can’t run anywhere. I have five children and displacement will extract a high cost.”

Voicing his concerns, Bilal Ghandour, a jewelry shop owner in Beirut, said: “We are dealing with an enemy that has no red lines, and we saw what happened in the Gaza Strip. The impact of any future war will be severe in light of the economic crisis we are suffering from.”




The aftermath of an Israeli raid in the southern Lebanese village of Shama (Chamaa), on August 2, 2024. (AFP)

In recent weeks, Israeli jets have flown low over Beirut, often visible to the naked eye, and have frequently broken the sound barrier, causing the loudest sonic booms heard in years.

The sense of fear in the Lebanese capital is palpable, especially among residents of areas viewed as Hezbollah strongholds, notably Dahiyeh, a predominantly Shiite suburb in the south of Beirut.

Haret Hreik, in Dahiyeh, was where Shukr was killed in an airstrike by the Israeli military on July 30, in apparent retaliation for the deaths of 12 children in the predominantly Druze town of Majdal Shams, in the Golan Heights, in a missile strike blamed on Hezbollah.

During the 2006 war, Dahiyeh served as the headquarters of Hezbollah and was heavily targeted and damaged by the Israeli military. Dahiyeh doctrine, the Israeli military strategy involving the destruction of civilian infrastructure in order to pressure hostile regimes, is named after the neighborhood.

“Manal,” a university professor who lives in Dahiyeh, shared her apprehensions with Arab News on condition of anonymity. “There is a sense of fear for the family, and I have no plans A or B for displacement. All the bags of displacement are ready in front of the doors of the homes of Dahiyeh residents, even those who believe in the resistance,” she said.




A Lebanese couple run through the streets in front of a bombed bridge following an Israeli air strikes on the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh on 14 July 2006. (AFP)

Lebanon now faces a future filled with uncertainty. The economic crisis, combined with the potential for war, has left many feeling helpless. “Everyone is worried, everything is possible,” said Fatima Muhaimish, a resident of Beirut’s southern suburbs. “There is no psychological or physical ability to endure war and the horror it leaves behind.”

As the Lebanese people brace for what may come, they are left with more questions than answers. “Is there really a safe place in Lebanon if Israel launches a war on the country?” they ask. “What happens after this war, and will there be other wars?”

Social political analyst Maher Abi Nader attributes the widespread sense of denial to the psychological trauma endured by the Lebanese people in recent decades, most recently after the August 2020 Beirut port explosion.




Rescuers stand near a building with destroyed top floors following an Israeli military strike on Beirut’s southern suburb on July 30, 2024. (AFP)

“The West is ignorant of our reading of the war. The Lebanese citizen knows how to deal with acute crises. He prefers to live one day at a time to avoid fatal stress,” Abi Nader told Arab News.

In his speech at Shukr’s funeral, Nasrallah said that unnamed countries had asked Hezbollah to retaliate in an “acceptable” way — or not at all. But he said it would be “impossible” for his fighters not to respond. “There is no discussion on this point,” he said. “The only things lying between us and you are the days, the nights and the battlefield.”

With no clear path forward, Lebanon is once again on edge, waiting for what seems like a delayed but inevitable full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel.

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UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon

Updated 2 sec ago
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UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon

Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the UN refugee agency’s representative in Syria, said: “These are very, very small numbers, but for us, even small numbers are worrying signals“
The UNHCR estimates that around 560,000 people have fled into Syria from neighboring Lebanon since late September

GENEVA: The UN voiced concern Friday that conditions were so dire in Syria that some Lebanese residents who had fled there seeking refuge from the Israel-Hezbollah war were opting to return to Lebanon.
There are “Lebanese families who are beginning to take the very difficult and potentially life-threatening decision to return to Lebanon,” said Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the United Nations refugee agency’s representative in Syria.
“These are very, very small numbers, but for us, even small numbers are worrying signals,” he told reporters in Geneva via video link from the Syrian-Lebanese border.
The UNHCR estimates that around 560,000 people have fled into Syria from neighboring Lebanon since late September, when months of cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah over the war in Gaza escalated into all-out war.
Lebanese authorities put the number even higher, at more than 610,000.
Vargas Llosa said that around 65 percent of those crossing into Syria — itself torn apart by 13 years of civil war — were Syrian nationals who had sought refuge in Lebanon from that conflict.
He pointed out that from 2017 up to September 23 this year, around 400,000 Syrians had returned to their country from Lebanon.
“We have had more or less the same number... in a period of seven to eight weeks,” he said, adding that some 150,000 Lebanese had also arrived in Syria during that period.
He hailed the “exemplary” and “extraordinary display of generosity” shown toward those arriving by communities across Syria, “whose infrastructure is destroyed, whose economy is destroyed.”
But he warned that given Syria’s own “catastrophic economic situation... it is unclear for how long this generosity will last.”
Worrying signs were already emerging, he said, pointing to the admittedly small numbers of people who were opting to return to Lebanon despite the risks.
UNHCR said that “on average up to 50 Lebanese individuals per day” were crossing back into Lebanon.
They were leaving because they thought “the conditions in Syria are appalling, and that they may be better off in Lebanon, in spite of the bombings,” Vargas Llosa said.
Back in Lebanon, they might have better support systems, easier access to services and even the ability to generate a little income, he said.
He warned that “unless there is a real injection of international support... this number of Lebanese choosing to return home to these extraordinarily difficult circumstances may grow in the coming weeks and months.”
“This would be extremely worrying.”
There were even some Syrian returnees who were opting to once again cross back into Lebanon, “primarily because of the extraordinarily dire economic conditions here in Syria,” Vargas Llosa said.
In the meantime, he said that there had recently been “an important decrease in the pace of arrivals” into Syria, from a peak of 10,000-15,000 per day to an average now of about 2,000.
Vargas Llosa charged that this was likely linked to Israel’s repeated bombings of border crossings.
“Syrians and Lebanese are very scared of using these escape routes,” he said, appealing to the Israeli military to “immediately stop these unacceptable attacks.”

Israeli strikes batter Lebanon, killing five medics

Updated 22 November 2024
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Israeli strikes batter Lebanon, killing five medics

  • Israel has pushed on with its intense military campaign against Hezbollah, tempering hopes that efforts by a US envoy could lead to an imminent ceasefire
  • Hezbollah said it had fired rockets at Israeli troops east of Khiyam at least four times on Friday

BEIRUT: Israeli strikes battered southern Lebanon and the outskirts of the capital Beirut on Friday, killing at least five medics, as ground troops clashed with Hezbollah fighters in the south.
Israel has pushed on with its intense military campaign against the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, tempering hopes that efforts by a US envoy could lead to an imminent ceasefire.
US mediator Amos Hochstein said earlier this week in Beirut that a truce was “within our grasp.” He traveled on to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz before returning to Washington, according to the news outlet Axios.
His trip aimed to end more than a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah along Lebanon’s southern border, which escalated dramatically when Israel ramped up its strikes in late September and sent ground troops into Lebanon on Oct. 1.
Israeli troops have fought Hezbollah in a strip of towns all along the border and this week pushed deeper to the edges of Khiyam, a town some six km (four miles) from the border. Hezbollah said it had fired rockets at Israeli troops east of Khiyam at least four times on Friday.
Lebanese security sources told Reuters that Israeli troops had also advanced in a string of villages to the west as well. They said Israel was most likely trying to isolate Khiyam ahead of a major attack on the town.
Israeli strikes on two other villages in southern Lebanon killed a total of five medics from a rescue force affiliated with Hezbollah, the Lebanese health ministry said.
The more than 3,500 people killed by Israeli strikes over the last year include more than 200 medics, the health ministry said.
Israel says its aim is to secure the return home of tens of thousands of people evacuated from Israel’s north due to rocket attacks by Hezbollah, which began firing across the border in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war in October 2023.
Israel also mounted more strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, a once densely populated stronghold of Hezbollah.
It issued evacuation orders on the social media platform X for several buildings in the area on Friday. Reuters footage showed one of the strikes appearing to pierce the center of a multi-story building, sending the whole structure toppling in a massive cloud of smoke.


UN reports heavy clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah in south Lebanon

Updated 22 November 2024
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UN reports heavy clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah in south Lebanon

  • “We are aware of heavy shelling in the vicinity of our bases,” UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti said
  • Asked if the peacekeepers and staff at the headquarters are safe, Tenenti said: “Yes for the moment”

BEIRUT: Israeli troops fought fierce battles with Hezbollah fighters on Friday in different areas in south Lebanon, including a coastal town that is home to the headquarters of UN peacekeepers.
A spokesman for the UN peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL told The Associated Press that they are monitoring “heavy clashes” in the coastal town of Naqoura and the village of Chamaa to the northeast.
UNIFIL’s headquarters are located in Naqoura in Lebanon’s southern edge close to the border with Israel.
“We are aware of heavy shelling in the vicinity of our bases,” UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti said. Asked if the peacekeepers and staff at the headquarters are safe, Tenenti said: “Yes for the moment.”
Several UNIFIL posts have been hit since Israel began its ground invasion of Lebanon on Oct. 1, leaving a number of peacekeepers wounded.
The fighting came a day after the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defense minister and a Hamas military leader, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity over their 13-month war in Gaza and the October 2023 attack on Israel respectively.
The warrant marked the first time that a sitting leader of a major Western ally has been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity by a global court of justice.
Israel’s war has caused heavy destruction across Gaza, decimated parts of the territory and driven almost the entire population of 2.3 million people from their homes, leaving most dependent on aid to survive.
Israel launched its war in Gaza after Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting another 250. Around 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, at least a third of whom are believed to be dead.
Israel has also launched airstrikes against Lebanon after the Hezbollah militant group began firing rockets, drones and missiles into Israel the day after Hamas’ attack last October. A full-blown war erupted in September after nearly a year of lower-level conflict.


Gaza ministry: hospitals to cut or stop services ‘within 48 hours’ over fuel shortages

Updated 22 November 2024
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Gaza ministry: hospitals to cut or stop services ‘within 48 hours’ over fuel shortages

  • All hospitals in Gaza would have to stop or reduce services “within 48 hours“

GAZA: The Hamas government’s health ministry warned Friday all hospitals in Gaza would have to stop or reduce services “within 48 hours” for lack of fuel, blaming Israel for blocking its entry.
“We raise an urgent warning as all hospitals in Gaza Strip will stop working or reduce their services within 48 hours due to the occupation’s (Israel’s) obstruction of fuel entry,” Marwan Al-Hams, director of Gaza’s field hospitals, said during a press conference.


Israel says to end ‘administrative detention’ for West Bank settlers

Updated 22 November 2024
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Israel says to end ‘administrative detention’ for West Bank settlers

  • Practice allows for detainees to be held for long periods without being charged or appear in court
  • The Palestinian Prisoners Club advocacy group said in August that 3,432 Palestinians were held in administrative detention

JERUSALEM: Israeli authorities will stop holding Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank under administrative detention, or incarceration without trial, the defense ministry announced Friday.
The practice allows for detainees to be held for long periods without being charged or appear in court, and is often used against Palestinians who Israel deems security threats.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said it was “inappropriate” for Israel to employ administrative detention against settlers who “face severe Palestinian terror threats and unjustified international sanctions.”
But, according to settlement watchdog Peace Now, it is one of only few effective tools that Israeli authorities to prevent settler attacks against Palestinians, which have surged in the West Bank over the past year.
Katz said in a statement issued by his office that prosecution or “other preventive measures” would be used to deal with criminal acts in the West Bank.
B’Tselem, an Israeli rights group, said authorities use administrative detention “extensively and routinely” to hold thousands of Palestinians for lengthy periods of time.
The Palestinian Prisoners Club advocacy group said in August that 3,432 Palestinians were held in administrative detention.
Israeli daily Haaretz reported on Friday that eight settlers were held under the same practice in November.
Yonatan Mizrahi, director of settlement watch for Peace Now, said that although administrative detention was mostly used in the West Bank to detain Palestinians, it was one of the few effective tools for temporarily removing the threat of settler violence through detention.
“The cancelation of administrative detention orders for settlers alone is a cynical... move that whitewashes and normalizes escalating Jewish terrorism under the cover of war,” the group said in a statement, referring to a spike in settler attacks throughout the Israel-Hamas conflict over the past 13 months.
Western governments, including Israel’s ally and military backer the United States, have recently imposed sanctions on Israeli settlers and settler organizations over ties to violence against Palestinians.
On Monday, US authorities announced sanctions against Amana, a movement that backs settlement development, and others who have “ties to violent actors in the West Bank.”
“Amana is a key part of the Israeli extremist settlement movement and maintains ties to various persons previously sanctioned by the US government and its partners for perpetrating violence in the West Bank,” the US Treasury said.
Excluding Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem, the West Bank — which Israel has occupied since 1967 — is home to three million Palestinians as well as about 490,000 Israelis living in settlements that are illegal under international law.