Why Israel’s assault on Lebanon’s Hezbollah puts Iran’s IRGC in an unprecedented dilemma

Much of what happens next hinges on how Hezbollah’s key backer, Iran, chooses to respond. (AP)
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Updated 25 September 2024
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Why Israel’s assault on Lebanon’s Hezbollah puts Iran’s IRGC in an unprecedented dilemma

  • Since Hamas chief Haniyeh was killed in Tehran in July, there has been intense speculation about a direct conflict between Israel and Iran
  • Now with the situation in Lebanon rapidly escalating, the IRGC is under mounting pressure to come to the aid of its Hezbollah allies

LONDON: As world leaders gather in New York for the UN General Assembly, global attention is glued to the latest escalation taking place in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah, which has brought the region yet another step closer to all-out war.

On Monday, nearly 500 people, including 35 children, were killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, according to the country’s Health Ministry. The Israeli military said it had hit about 1,600 Hezbollah targets, killing a “large number” of militants.

Further strikes were carried out on Tuesday, making these the deadliest attacks Israel has carried out on Lebanon since the 2006 war.

The Israeli strikes came less than a week after coordinated sabotage attacks targeting Hezbollah’s communication devices killed 39 people and wounded almost 3,000. Hezbollah has responded with fresh rocket attacks deep into Israeli territory.




On Monday, nearly 500 people, including 35 children, were killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon. (AFP)

There are now fears of a looming Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon.

“Although a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is a real possibility, both parties still prefer a diplomatic solution,” Hanin Ghaddar, the Friedmann Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, wrote in Foreign Policy this week.

“Israel is trying to keep its attacks targeted, and Hezbollah is trying hard not to provoke Israel or be forced to use and waste its most valuable military assets — namely, precision missiles — which Iran regards as an insurance policy.”

Indeed, much of what happens next hinges on how Hezbollah’s key backer, Iran, chooses to respond.

On Tuesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denounced the UN’s “inaction” against Israel, describing it as “senseless and incomprehensible,” amid surging tensions across the Middle East.




People gather at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs. (Reuters)

“In my meeting with the Secretary General of the United Nations, I said the UN inaction against the crimes of the occupying regime is senseless and incomprehensible,” Pezeshkian said in a post on social media platform X.

“I expressed my deep concern about the spread of the conflict in the entire Middle East,” he added.

Earlier, Pezeshkian told CNN that Iran’s ally Hezbollah “cannot stand alone against a country that is being defended and supported and supplied by Western countries, by European countries and the US.”

He called on the international community to “not allow Lebanon to become another Gaza,” in response to a question on whether Iran would use its influence with Hezbollah to urge restraint.

Iran understands better than any other nation, perhaps, the meaning of the word “restraint.”




There are now fears of a looming Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon. (AP)

Despite intense speculation about a direct military conflict between Iran and Israel following the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, there remains little sign that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intends to exact revenge for the humiliation.

Now with the situation in Lebanon rapidly escalating, the IRGC may have little option but to come to the aid of its Hezbollah allies, if only to protect a regional asset that has long been seen as its insurance policy against a pre-emptive Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program.

“President Pezeshkian doesn’t really speak for the IRGC or the hard side of Iranian power,” Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute, told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.




Israel’s advanced missile defense systems make a successful large-scale Iranian attack unlikely. (AP)

“It’s often the case in Iran that they send soft messages in one area and hard messages in another. But it is also true that Iran does not want Hezbollah to go into an all-out war with Israel. It wants to preserve Hezbollah as a long-term deterrent for Iran itself, not for Hamas or anything related to the Palestinian issue.

“I think it’s trying to calm the situation, de-escalate the situation. I doubt very much that they would join any escalation of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. I think they will keep their powder dry and to avoid being dragged into it, although they would certainly try to resupply and support Hezbollah.”




On Tuesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denounced the UN’s “inaction” against Israel. (AP)

The IRGC’s avoidance of a direct conflict with Israel appears to be rooted in a complex web of strategic, military, and political considerations.

While Iran faces pressure to respond to Israeli provocations, the risks of escalation, the deterrent power of the US military, internal political and economic challenges, and the benefits of proxy warfare have all likely contributed to Tehran’s cautious approach.

As long as these dynamics remain in place, Iran is likely to continue relying on its proxies and asymmetric warfare, rather than risking an all-out war with Israel.

INNUMBERS

• 558 People killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon on Monday and Tuesday, including at least 50 children and 94 women, and a further 1,835 injured, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

One of the primary reasons for the IRGC’s hesitancy to engage directly with Israel is the fear of sparking a broader conflict. Iran is acutely aware that any significant military action could result in severe retaliation not only from Israel but potentially from the US as well.

Moreover, Israeli military superiority is a major consideration. Israel’s advanced missile defense systems, such as the Iron Dome and the David’s Sling, make a successful large-scale Iranian attack unlikely.




The IRGC may have little option but to come to the aid of its Hezbollah allies. (AFP)

Past experiences, such as Israel’s interception of Iranian drones and missiles in April, highlight the difficulties Iran faces in overcoming Israeli defenses. The Iranian leadership, particularly the IRGC, understands that a failed or underwhelming attack would further embarrass the regime and weaken its regional standing.

Instead of engaging in direct military action, Iran has perfected the use of proxy warfare to counter Israeli influence. Tehran’s network of proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, allows it to strike at Israeli interests while maintaining plausible deniability.

This strategy minimizes the risks of a direct confrontation with Israel and the US, while still enabling Iran to project power and influence in the region.




Ultra-Orthodox Jewish children watch as smoke billows following rocket fire from Lebanon into Israel. (Reuters)

By relying on proxies, Iran can avoid the full consequences of a direct attack on Israel. This approach allows Tehran to engage in a shadow war, in which it can exert pressure on Israel without provoking a broader military response.

Proxy warfare also allows Iran to maintain its regional clout without overstretching its own military capabilities.

Iran is keenly aware of the shifting geopolitical landscape, particularly with the upcoming US presidential election and ongoing efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza. Iranian leaders may believe that a direct attack on Israel could undermine their diplomatic efforts and isolate the country further on the international stage.




Iran is keenly aware of the shifting geopolitical landscape, particularly with the upcoming US presidential election and ongoing efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza. (AFP)

Tehran is also cautious about giving former US President Donald Trump a reason to re-enter the political fray. Many in Iran’s leadership see Trump as a dangerous adversary, whose return to power could spell the end of any diplomatic progress made under the administration of Joe Biden.

So, if the IRGC is not prepared to risk all-out war with Israel, how is Hezbollah likely to respond? In a thread posted on X, Michael Young, senior editor at the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said the militia has little option but to negotiate.

“There is much talk of Israel wanting an all-out war in Lebanon. In fact, what we’re seeing today was long expected for when Israel redeployed its troops to the north. We’re in an escalation to affect the outcome of negotiations, not to provoke an all-out war,” he said.




A woman who fled from southern Lebanon sits inside a shelter in Beirut. (Reuters)

“The Israelis are effectively telling Hezbollah: If you want an all-out war, then go ahead and provoke one, and you will be responsible for Lebanon’s destruction. But if you don’t want one, you will have to keep up with our escalations, which you cannot do.

“Hezbollah tried to ‘keep up’ (on Monday) by bombing northern Israel, to underline that no Israeli would return to the north for as long as the Gaza war continued. Israel today is replying that it will depopulate large parts of the south and Beqaa in response to this effort.

“But all this must be understood as preparations for negotiations.”

 


Archaeologists unearth an ancient Middle Kingdom Egyptian tomb in Luxor

Updated 02 November 2024
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Archaeologists unearth an ancient Middle Kingdom Egyptian tomb in Luxor

  • Some items such as jewelry in women’s burials were found intact, including a finely crafted necklace with 30 amethyst beads

CAIRO: Archaeologists from Egypt and the United States unearthed an ancient tomb with 11 sealed burials near the famed city of Luxor, Egyptian authorities said.
Egypt’s Tourism and Antiquities Ministry said in a statement Friday the tomb, which dates back to the Middle Kingdom (1938 B.C.-1630 B.C.), was found in the South Asasif necropolis, next to the Temple of Hatshepsut on the Nile’s West Bank in Luxor.
The joint Egyptian-American mission excavating the necropolis found coffins for men, women and children, suggesting that it was a family tomb used for generations during the 12th Dynasty and the beginning of the 13th Dynasty, said Mohamed Ismail Khaled, Secretary-General of the Supreme Council of Antiquities in Egypt.
He said ancient floods destroyed most of the burials’ wooden coffins and linen wrappings.
However, some items such as jewelry in women’s burials were found intact, including a finely crafted necklace with 30 amethyst beads and two cylindrical agate beads framing a hippo-head amulet, according to the statement.
Catherine Blakeney, chief American archaeologist with the mission, said they found two copper mirrors, one with a lotus-shaped handle, and the second with a unique design of Hathor, goddess of the sky, women, fertility and love in ancient Egypt.
The discovery came as Egypt has doubled efforts to attract more tourists, a significant source of foreign currency for the cash-strapped North African country. Tourism, which depends heavily on Egypt’s rich Pharaonic artifacts, suffered a long downturn after the political turmoil and violence that followed a 2011 uprising.
Last month, the Grand Egyptian Museum, a mega project near the famed Giza Pyramids, opened 12 halls exhibiting Pharaonic artifacts for visitors as a trial ahead of the yet-unannounced official opening.


Israel army says intercepted three drones over Red Sea

Updated 02 November 2024
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Israel army says intercepted three drones over Red Sea

  • Iraqi pro-Iran groups say carried out drone attack on Israel’s Eilat

Jerusalem: The Israeli military said on Saturday it had intercepted three drones launched from the east over the Red Sea, without specifying where they came from.
“A short while ago, three UAVs that were launched from the east were intercepted over the Red Sea.... the UAVs were intercepted prior to crossing into Israeli territory,” the military said in a statement.

Iraqi pro-Iran groups say carried out drone attack

A coalition of pro-Iran groups in Iraq said it carried out four drone attacks on the Israeli resort of Eilat on Saturday, after Israel said it intercepted three drones approaching from the east.
In a statement, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq it was behind the attacks on what it called “four vital targets” in the resort on Israel’s Red Sea coast, all conducted within one hour.


Jordan warns of increasing regional unrest and vows to protect its airspace, borders

Updated 02 November 2024
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Jordan warns of increasing regional unrest and vows to protect its airspace, borders

CAIRO: Jordan on Saturday warned against intercepting its airspace and the infringement of its borders as unrest increases in the region. 

Jordan reaffirms its “rejection of attempts by some regional parties to violate its airspace, especially by launching drones that some of which have entered the Kingdom’s airspace and parts had fallen inside Jordanian territory,” said government spokesperson Mohammad Momani according to Petra news agency.  

The spokesperson pointed out that two incidents of this sort had occurred recently in the governorates of Irbid and Jerash, describing it as “a threat that Jordan was dealing with within the military rules of engagement, and that it was taking all necessary measures to confront these violations.”

The minister warned of “increasing regional unrest, reiterating that Jordan will not be a conflict zone for any party, and will not allow warplanes, missiles or drones to pass through its airspace.”

 


US-Israeli settlers hope to see a second Trump term

Updated 02 November 2024
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US-Israeli settlers hope to see a second Trump term

  • Recent polls show that a majority of Israelis dream of the days when the former president inhabited the White House
  • Donald Trump prioritized Israel during his previous term, moving the American embassy to Jerusalem among his other actions

SHILOH, Palestinian Territories: Less than a week before the United States presidential election, Americans living in settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank know exactly who they want to win: Donald Trump.
Recent polls show that a majority of Israelis, 66 percent according to one conducted by Israel’s Channel 12 News, dream of the days when the former president inhabited the White House.
Trump prioritized Israel during his previous term, moving the American embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights and helping to normalize ties between Israel and several Arab states under the so-called Abraham Accords.
Now, many Israelis believe Trump will offer yet more support as the country battles Iran-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as Iran itself.
“I’m proud to tell you that I voted for President Trump,” Eliana Passentin, 50, who moved to Israel from San Francisco as a child, said.
For Passentin, a mother and grandmother, the stakes are higher than for the average Israeli.
For the past 29 years she has lived in Eli, part of a cluster of Israeli settlements located in the heart of the West Bank.
The area has been occupied by Israel since 1967, but it could become Palestinian sovereign territory under a two-state solution favored by the international community.
Passentin is employed by the local regional council.
She recalls how successive administrations in Washington pressured Israel to stop expanding settlements in an attempt to mediate peace between Israelis and Palestinians and reach a two-state solution.
“United States of America, our greatest ally, we thank you, but please understand we know how to run our country,” Passentin said.
In her backyard, with sweeping views of the entire area, Passentin points to nearby Israeli and Palestinian towns.
“I don’t think that Israelis living here are an obstacle to peace. On the contrary, I think that the Israelis living here are building the region for everyone,” she said.
She said the region was a hub for Jews in Biblical times, and claims that under international agreements Israelis have a right to live here.
International law says otherwise, however, and Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank are considered illegal by the international community.
Among Israelis who vote for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling right-wing coalition, 93 percent support Trump’s candidacy, according to the Channel 12 poll.
“Things have changed since October 7,” Passentin said, referring to Hamas’s attack on southern Israel on that day in 2023 which sparked the war in Gaza.
“Now it’s a whole different story — it’s not about Judea and Samaria, it’s about Israel,” she said, using the Biblical terms for the southern and northern West Bank.
“We have a right to defend ourselves... and I think President Trump respects and understands that.”
Gedaliah Blum, 45, a neighbor who was born in New Jersey, also said he voted for Trump based on the question of “what kind of future we want to have here in Israel.”
“Do we want a future that has an embargo threatened on Israel every time we defend ourselves?” he asked.
“Trump is not going to pressure Israel to sign a ceasefire that will let Hamas remain in power in Gaza. They’re not going to push Israel to sign a peace agreement with Lebanon that will allow Hezbollah to remain in power.”
With Kamala Harris in the Oval Office, Israel will be under constant “pressure,” Blum said.
“We’re going to get pressure, we’re going to get embargoes, we’re going to get Iranian money in their pockets. It’s not in the best interest of Israel.”
In the nearby settlement of Shiloh, where an estimated 20 percent of residents hold US citizenship, New York-born Yisrael Medad, 77, said he believed Trump would be good not only for America but also for “America’s friends abroad, including Israel.”
“I think the policies that a Republican candidate such as Trump are promoting are most beneficial for the administration, Congress and the American people,” he said.
On Israel, Medad said he believed that Trump would treat Israel more “fairly in terms of not denying its rights to defend itself... not only in a physical sense but also on the ideological front.”
Referring to a recent incident at a Democratic campaign rally in which Harris did not push back against a demonstrator who said Israel was committing a “genocide” in Gaza, Medad said: “That’s not the type of candidate I want in the White House.”


Israel’s path of destruction in southern Lebanon raises fears of an attempt to create a buffer zone

Updated 02 November 2024
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Israel’s path of destruction in southern Lebanon raises fears of an attempt to create a buffer zone

  • Israeli warplanes and ground forces have blasted a trail of destruction through southern Lebanon the past month
  • More than 1 million people have fled bombardment, emptying much of the south

BEIRUT: Perched on a hilltop a short walk from the Israeli border, the tiny southern Lebanese village of Ramyah has almost been wiped off the map. In a neighboring village, satellite photos show a similar scene: a hill once covered with houses, now reduced to a gray smear of rubble.
Israeli warplanes and ground forces have blasted a trail of destruction through southern Lebanon the past month. The aim, Israel says, is to debilitate the Hezbollah militant group, push it away from the border and end more than a year of Hezbollah fire into northern Israel.
Even United Nations peacekeepers and Lebanese troops in the south have come under fire from Israeli forces, raising questions over whether they can remain in place.
More than 1 million people have fled bombardment, emptying much of the south. Some experts say Israel may be aiming to create a depopulated buffer zone, a strategy it has already deployed along its border with Gaza.
Some conditions for such a zone appear already in place, according to an Associated Press analysis of satellite imagery and data collected by mapping experts that show the breadth of destruction across 11 villages next to the border.
The Israeli military has said the bombardment is necessary to destroy Hezbollah tunnels and other infrastructure it says the group embedded within towns. The blasts have also destroyed homes, neighborhoods and sometimes entire villages, where families have lived for generations.
Israel says it aims to push Hezbollah far enough back that its citizens can return safely to homes in the north, but Israeli officials acknowledge they don’t have a concrete plan for ensuring Hezbollah stays away from the border long term. That is a key focus in attempts by the United States to broker a ceasefire.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel’s immediate aim is not to create a buffer zone — but that might change.
“Maybe we’ll have no other choice than staying there until we have an arrangement that promises us that Hezbollah will not come back to the zone,” she said.
A path of destruction
Troops pushed into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1, backed by heavy bombardment that has intensified since.
Using satellite images provided by Planet Labs PBC, AP identified a line of 11 villages — all within 4 miles (6.5 kilometers) of Lebanon’s border with Israel — that have been severely damaged in the past month, either by strikes or detonations of explosives laid by Israeli soldiers.
Analysis found the most intense damage in the south came in villages closest to the border, with between 100 and 500 buildings likely destroyed or damaged in each, according to Corey Scher of CUNY Graduate Center and Jamon Van Der Hoek of Oregon State University, experts in damage assessments.
In Ramyah, barely a single structure still stands on the village’s central hilltop, after a controlled detonation that Israeli soldiers showed themselves carrying out in videos posted on social media. In the next town over, Aita Al-Shaab — a village with strong Hezbollah influence — bombardment turned the hilltop with the highest concentration of buildings into a gray wasteland of rubble.
In other villages, the damage is more selective. In some, bombardment tore scars through blocks of houses; in others, certain homes were crushed while their neighbors remained intact.
Another controlled detonation leveled much of the village of Odeissah, with an explosion so strong it set off earthquake alerts in Israel.
In videos of the blast, Lubnan Baalbaki, conductor of the Lebanese Philharmonic Orchestra, watched in disbelief as his parents’ house — containing the art collection and a library his father had built up for years — was destroyed.
“This house was a project and a dream for both of my parents,” he told the AP. His parents’ graves in the garden are now lost.
When asked whether its intention was to create a buffer zone, Israel’s military said it was “conducting localized, limited, targeted raids based on precise intelligence” against Hezbollah targets. It said Hezbollah had “deliberately embedded” weapons in homes and villages.
Israeli journalist Danny Kushmaro even helped blow up a home that the military said was being used to store Hezbollah ammunition. In a television segment, Kushmaro and soldiers counted down before they pressed a button, setting off a massive explosion.
Videos posted online by Israel’s military and individual soldiers show Israeli troops planting flags on Lebanese soil. Still, Israel has not built any bases or managed to hold a permanent presence in southern Lebanon. Troops appear to move back and forth across the border, sometimes under heavy fire from Hezbollah.
October has been the deadliest month of 2024 for the Israeli military, with around 60 soldiers killed.
Attacks on UN peacekeeping troops and the Lebanese Army
The bombardment has been punctuated by Israeli attacks on UN troops and the Lebanese Army — forces which, under international law, are supposed to keep the peace in the area. Israel has long complained that their presence has not prevented Hezbollah from building up its infrastructure across the south.
Israel denies targeting either force.
The Lebanese military has said at least 11 of its soldiers were killed in eight Israeli strikes, either at their positions or while assisting evacuations.
The peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, said its forces and infrastructure have been harmed at least 30 times since late September, blaming Israeli military fire or actions for about 20 of them, “with seven being clearly deliberate.”
A rocket likely fired by Hezbollah or an allied group hit UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura on Tuesday, causing some minor injuries, said UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti.
UNIFIL has refused to leave southern Lebanon, despite calls by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for them to go.
Experts warn that could change if peacekeepers come under greater fire.
“If you went from the UN taking casualties to the UN actually taking fatalities,” some nations contributing troops may “say ‘enough is enough,’ and you might see the mission start to crumble,” said Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group.
The future of the territory is uncertain
International ceasefire efforts appear to be centered on implementing UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.
It specified that Israeli forces would fully withdraw from Lebanon while the Lebanese army and UNIFIL — not Hezbollah — would be the exclusive armed presence in a zone about 25 kilometers (15 miles) from the border.
But the resolution was not fully implemented. Hezbollah never left the border zone, and Lebanon accuses Israel of continuing to occupy small areas of its land and carrying out frequent military overflights above its territory.
During a recent visit to Beirut, US envoy Amos Hochstein said a new agreement was needed to enforce Resolution 1701.
Israel could be trying to pressure an agreement into existence through the destruction wreaked in southern Lebanon.
Yossi Yehoshua, military correspondent for the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, wrote that the military needs to “entrench further its operational achievements” to push Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and mediating countries “to accept an end (of the war) under conditions that are convenient for Israel.”
Some Lebanese fear that means an occupation of parts of the south, 25 years after Israel ended its occupation there.
Lebanese parliamentarian Mark Daou, a critic of both Hezbollah and of Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, said he believed Israel was trying to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and turn the Lebanese public “against the will to resist Israeli incursions.”
Gowan, of the International Crisis Group, said one aim of Resolution 1701 was to give the Lebanese army enough credibility that it, not Hezbollah, would be seen “as the legitimate defender” in the south.
“That evaporates if they become (Israel’s) gendarmerie of southern Lebanon,” he said.