How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

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Updated 31 October 2024
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How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

  • With its electoral college system, staggered results, and early voting options, understanding how the election functions can be daunting
  • To cut through the jargon and complexities of the democratic process, here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day

LONDON: Early voting has already begun in the US to decide who will form the next administration in what many believe is among the most consequential — and hotly contested — elections in a generation.

Almost every poll published over the past week has placed the two main contenders, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, neck and neck in the race for the White House.

Analysts predict the result could come down to just a handful of votes. The outcome could have huge implications not only for domestic policy, but also for the international order.

With extensive media coverage, election jargon, and an overwhelming volume of information, understanding the process can feel daunting. Here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day.

The polls

Polls are often excellent indicators of general voter sentiment. However, recent US elections have shown they are far from foolproof.

In 2016, almost every major polling firm predicted Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump. However, pollsters failed to capture Trump’s unexpected support, leading to a surprise victory that confounded many.

In 2020, polls correctly tipped Joe Biden as the likely winner, but underestimated the actual vote share Trump would receive. In the week before the election, polls gave Biden a seven-point lead, yet Trump managed to close the gap by several points on Election Day.

With most polls indicating a close race on Tuesday, many are wondering whether the pollsters have got it right this time around.

Electoral college

About 244 million Americans are eligible to vote in this year’s election. If the turnout matches 2020’s record 67 percent, about 162 million ballots will be cast across 50 states.




People cast their ballots during early in-person voting on Oct. 30, 2024, in Nashville, Tennessee. (AP)

A recent Arab News-YouGov poll indicated that Arab Americans are likely to vote in record numbers, with more than 80 percent of eligible voters saying they intend to participate — potentially swinging the outcome in several key states.

When voters cast their ballots, they do not vote directly for their preferred presidential candidate. Rather, they vote for a slate of “electors” who formally choose the president — a process known as the electoral college system.

Due to the quirks of this system, the candidate with the most votes nationally may not necessarily win the presidency. This was the case with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Al Gore in 2000, both of whom won the popular vote but lost the election.




Former US Vice President Al Gore (left) won the popular vote in 2000 and so did former US first lady and senator Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election. But both lost the race because their rivals won more electoral votes. (AFP/File photos)l 

The electoral college creates what could be defined as 51 mini elections — one in each state and another for Washington, D.C. In 48 states and D.C., the candidate with the majority vote takes all the electors from that state.

However, Maine and Nebraska have a different system, allocating electors by district, meaning their electoral votes may be split between candidates.

In total, 538 electors are distributed among the states. A candidate must secure at least 270 of these to win the presidency.

In the unlikely case that no candidate has the required 270 electoral college votes, then a contingent election takes place. This means the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the US Congress, votes for the president.

How votes are counted

When the polls close on election day, the count begins. In most cases, in-person votes are counted first, followed by early and mail-in ballots.

Results from smaller or less contested states often come in early, while larger, key battleground states like Pennsylvania or Georgia may take hours — or days — to finalize due to stringent verification steps, including signature checks and ballot preparation for electronic scanning.




Jessica Garofolo (L), administrative services director for Allegheny County, demonstrates how the high-speed ballot scanner for mail-in ballots works during a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

States like Florida, where mail-in ballots are processed in advance, may report results relatively quickly. Other states, particularly those with late processing times for absentee ballots, might not finalize their tallies until days later.

State and local poll officials collect, verify, and certify the popular vote in each jurisdiction, following procedures for accuracy before final certification by governors and designated officials.

In response to unprecedented threats in 2020, many polling stations have now installed panic buttons, bulletproof glass and armed security to ensure safety across the more than 90,000 polling sites nationwide.




This combination image shows smoke pouring out of a ballot box on Oct. 28, 2024, in Vancouver, Washington (left) and a damaged ballot drop box displayed at the Multnomah County Elections Division office on Oct. 28, 2024, in Portland, Oregon. (KGW8 via AP/AP)

Mail-in and early votes

Although election day is held on the first Tuesday after Nov. 1, many Americans vote early. Early voting allows citizens to cast ballots in person, while others opt for mail-in ballots.

This year, early and mail-in voting are once again expected to play a crucial role, with millions of ballots already cast. President Biden voted early on Monday in his home state of Delaware.




US President Joe Biden casts his early-voting ballot in the 2024 general election in New Castle, Delaware, on October 28, 2024. (AFP)

States vary in how they handle mail-in ballots, with some processing them before election day and others waiting until polls close. In closely contested states, the volume of mail-in ballots could be a decisive factor, potentially delaying results.

Voting by mail has grown in popularity. According to ABC News, as of Tuesday, more than 25.6 million Americans have already returned mail ballots, and more than 65 million — including military personnel serving overseas — have requested absentee ballots.

In 2020, a comparable number voted by mail, though the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased reliance on this option.




A voter casts her ballot during the early voting period on October 29, 2024 in the city of Dearborn in  Michigan state. (Getty Images via AFP)

Despite its growing popularity, the mail-in voting system has faced accusations of fraud. During the last election, authorities and the postal service were strained by millions of extra ballots.

At the time, Trump said that mail-in voting was a “disaster” and “a whole big scam,” claiming that the Democrats had exploited the system to “steal” the election. The Democrats claim those allegations contributed to the Capitol Hill attack of Jan. 6, 2021.

This election cycle, some states, including Michigan and Nevada, have passed laws permitting early counting of mail-in ballots, which should lead to faster results. However, most states’ absentee voting policies have seen minimal changes, leaving tensions high.

Authorities are closely monitoring the process. In a sign of just how tense the situation has become, officials announced on Tuesday that they were searching for suspects after hundreds of votes deposited in two ballot drop boxes in the Pacific Northwest were destroyed by fire.

When will a winner be declared?

Indiana and Kentucky will be the first states to close their polls at 6 pm ET, followed by seven more states an hour later, including the battleground state of Georgia, which in 2020 voted for Biden. North Carolina, another critical swing state which picked Trump last time around, closes at 7:30 pm ET.




Supporters of US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris cheer during a Get Out the Vote rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

By around 8 p.m. ET, many states will have reported results, most of which are expected to follow traditional patterns. However, early results in solid Republican states like South Carolina could hint at trends in neighboring battlegrounds like Georgia.

By 9 p.m. ET, polls in key swing states such as Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan close, with results trickling in soon after. By midnight ET, most of the nation will have reported, with Hawaii and Alaska closing shortly after, likely providing a clearer picture.

Pennsylvania, which is seen as a bellwether of the overall election outcome, aims to announce its results by early morning on Nov. 6.

The timing of a winner declaration ultimately depends on how close the race is in these key states. If one candidate establishes a clear lead in pivotal swing states early, a winner could be projected by major networks, as Fox News controversially did in 2020, calling Arizona for Biden hours ahead of other broadcasters.




Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances as he leaves a campaign rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

If the race remains tight in crucial states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Michigan — all won by Biden last time around — the results may be delayed, possibly into the next day or later.

In 2020, it took four days to project Biden’s win due to a high volume of mail-in ballots. Experts caution that similarly close results this year could lead to a comparable delay.

Possible controversy

As in previous years, the outcome of the election will likely be contested. Delays in ballot counting, especially from mail-in votes, could fuel disputes in states where margins are tight.




Mail-in ballots are secured inside a cage before election day, as officials host a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

Both parties have prepared legal teams to challenge issues surrounding ballot validity, recounts, or other contested results.

Concerns over voter intimidation, misinformation and unsubstantiated allegations of fraud may further stoke tensions, despite the rigorous safeguards put in place.

In its latest assessment, the International Crisis Group noted that while conditions differ from 2020, political divisions remain sharp and risks of unrest remain high, especially if results are contested or take days to finalize.

As the world watches Tuesday’s election closely, there is widespread hope for a fair and peaceful process, marking a fitting conclusion to this tense political season.
 

 


UK PM Starmer to agree deal to strengthen EU partnership, his office says

Updated 18 May 2025
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UK PM Starmer to agree deal to strengthen EU partnership, his office says

  • Brexit has grown increasingly unpopular with the British electorate

LONDON: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to agree a deal next week to strengthen the country’s post-Brexit partnership with the European Union and to facilitate trade in some food products, his office said on Saturday.
Starmer will welcome EU leaders to London on Monday to help reset relations with the bloc, with both sides aiming to secure progress in specific areas while others will remain off-limits.
Britain left the EU in 2020, but Starmer has been trying to boost ties with the country’s biggest trading partner since his center-left Labour Party won last year’s national election.
The summit will result in a deal, his office said, though it provided few details beyond saying it would improve the situation for British producers currently facing checks on products or unable to export, and also that it would ease matters for families facing higher bills and queues when traveling.
“This week, the Prime Minister will strike yet another deal that will deliver in the national interest of this country. It will be good for growth, good for jobs, good for bills, and good for our borders,” Starmer’s 10 Downing Street office said in a statement.
Starmer on Friday raised the prospect that a youth mobility deal with the European Union would be struck at the summit.
Brexit has grown increasingly unpopular with the British electorate, opinion polls suggest, with the economy faring poorly in recent years and international trade a particular weak spot.


Bomb at fertility clinic in California kills one

Updated 18 May 2025
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Bomb at fertility clinic in California kills one

LOS ANGELES: An explosion outside a California fertility clinic Saturday killed one person in what the local mayor described as a bomb attack.
The blast ripped through downtown Palm Springs, badly damaging the clinic and blowing out the windows and doors of other nearby buildings, in what the city’s police chief said appeared to have been a deliberate act.
“The blast appears to be an intentional act of violence and the blast extends for blocks with several buildings damaged, some severely,” Palm Springs Police Chief Andy Mills said.
“There has been one fatality, the person’s identity is not known.”
Eyewitnesses told local media they had seen human remains near the American Reproductive Centers clinic, which appeared to have been badly damaged in the blast.
A statement posted on social media by the clinic said no staff had been hurt when the blast went off.
“This morning, an unexpected and tragic incident occurred outside our Palm Springs facility when a vehicle exploded in the parking lot near our building,” it said.
“We are heartbroken to learn that this event claimed a life and caused injuries, and our deepest condolences go out to the individuals and families affected.
“We are immensely grateful to share that no members of the ARC team were harmed, and our lab — including all eggs, embryos, and reproductive materials — remains fully secure and undamaged.”
Reproductive care, including abortion and fertility services, remain controversial in the United States, where some conservatives believe the procedures should be outlawed for religious reasons.
Violence against clinics providing such services is rare, but not unheard of.
US Attorney Bill Essayli said his office was aware of the blast.
“FBI is on scene and will be investigating whether this was an intentional act,” he said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
The local ABC affiliate, which cited an unnamed law enforcement source, reported five people were injured in the explosion and the person who died was a suspect in the blast.
Video posted online by witnesses showed debris scattered in the street in front of the clinic and windows shattered at multiple businesses in the area.
People living nearby reported feeling the shaking from the blast throughout the city.
Matt Spencer, who lives in a nearby apartment complex, told the Palm Springs Post he ran outside as soon as he heard the blast, and was confronted with the sight of the burned out car and what appeared to be a body in the middle of the road.
“In front of the building [the car] was blown clear across four lanes into the parking lot of [Desert Regional Medical Center],” he told the paper.
“I could see the back of the car still on fire and the rims, that was the only thing that distinguished it as a car.”
California Governor Gavin Newsom had been briefed on the explosion, his office said.
President Donald Trump’s Attorney General Pam Bondi said federal agents were working to determine exactly what had happened.
“But let me be clear: the Trump administration understands that women and mothers are the heartbeat of America. Violence against a fertility clinic is unforgivable,” she said in a statement on social media.


Five dead in helicopter collision in Finland, police say

Updated 18 May 2025
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Five dead in helicopter collision in Finland, police say

Five people were killed on Saturday when two helicopters collided and crashed in a wooded area near Eura Airport in southwestern Finland, police said.
Police said the mid-air collision occurred shortly after noon near the town of Kauttua, with the wreckage falling some 700 metres  from the Ohikulkutie road.
"Five people have died in a helicopter accident near Eura Airport on Saturday," Detective Chief Inspector Johannes Siirilä of the National Bureau of Investigation said.
According to flight plans, there were two people aboard one helicopter and three in the other, police said, adding that both helicopters were registered outside Finland.
One helicopter was registered in Estonia, the other in Austria, according to an Estonian Public Broadcasting  report, citing Finland's Helsingin Sanomat newspaper. Both belonged to Estonian companies. One was owned by NOBE and the other by Eleon, the report added.
The helicopters were reportedly en route to a hobby aviation event, according to the Pori Aviation Club, Yle News reported.
The National Bureau of Investigation is leading a joint probe with local police, and Finnish and Estonian authorities are cooperating.


Severe weather leaves at least 27 dead, including 18 in Kentucky

Updated 18 May 2025
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Severe weather leaves at least 27 dead, including 18 in Kentucky

LONDON, Kentucky: At least 27 people have been killed by storms systems that swept across part of the US Midwest and South, with Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear announcing Saturday that 18 of the deaths came in his state and 10 others were hospitalized in critical condition.
A devastating tornado in Kentucky damaged homes, tossed vehicles and left many people homeless. Seventeen of the deaths were in Laurel County, located in the state’s southeast, and one was in Pulaski County: Fire Department Maj. Roger Leslie Leatherman, a 39-year veteran who was fatally injured while responding to the deadly weather.
Parts of two dozen state roads were closed, and some could take days to reopen, Beshear said. He also said the death toll could still rise.
“We need the whole world right now to be really good neighbors to this region,” the governor said.
State Emergency Management Director Eric Gibson said hundreds of homes were damaged,
Kayla Patterson, her husband and their five children huddled in a tub in their basement in London, the county seat, as the tornado raged around them.
“You could literally hear just things ripping in the distance, glass shattering everywhere, just roaring like a freight train,” she recalled Saturday. “It was terrible.”
The family eventually emerged to the sounds of sirens and panicked neighbors. While the family’s own home was spared, others right behind it were demolished, Patterson said as the sound of power tools buzzed in the background. The neighborhood was dotted with piles of lumber, metal sheeting, insulation and stray belongings — a suitcase, a sofa, some six-packs of paper towels.
Rescuers were searching for survivors all night and into the morning, the sheriff’s office said. An emergency shelter was set up at a local high school and donations of food and other necessities were arriving.
The National Weather Service hadn’t yet confirmed that a tornado struck, but meteorologist Philomon Geertson said it was likely. It ripped across the largely rural area and extended to the London Corbin Airport shortly before midnight.
Resident Chris Cromer said he got the first of two tornado alerts on his phone around 11:30 p.m. or so, about a half-hour before the tornado struck. He and his wife grabbed their dog, jumped in their car and scrambled to the crawlspace at a relative’s nearby home because the couple’s own crawlspace is small.
“We could hear and feel the vibration of the tornado coming through,” said Cromer, 46. A piece of his roof was ripped off, and windows were broken, but homes around his were destroyed.
“It’s one of those things that you see on the news in other areas, and you feel bad for people — then, when it happens, it’s just surreal,” he said. “It makes you be thankful to be alive, really.”
The storm was the latest severe weather to cause deaths and widespread damage in Kentucky. Two months ago, at least 24 people died in a round of storms that swelled creeks and submerged roads. Hundreds of people were rescued, and most of the deaths were caused by vehicles getting stuck in high water.
A storm in late 2021 spawned tornadoes that killed 81 people and leveled portions of towns in western Kentucky. The following summer, historic floodwaters inundated parts of eastern Kentucky, leaving dozens more dead.
Missouri pounded by storms, with deaths confirmed in St. Louis
About 1,200 tornadoes strike the US annually, and they have been reported in all 50 states over the years. Researchers found in 2018 that deadly tornadoes were happening less frequently in the traditional “Tornado Alley” of Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas and more frequently in parts of the more densely populated and tree-filled mid-South area.
The latest Kentucky storms were part of a weather system Friday that killed seven in Missouri and two in northern Virginia, authorities said. The system also spawned tornadoes in Wisconsin, brought a punishing heat wave to Texas and temporarily enveloped parts of Illinois — including Chicago — in a pall of dust on an otherwise sunny day.
“Well that was.....something,” the weather service’s Chicago office wrote on X after issuing its first-ever dust storm warning for the city. Thunderstorms in central Illinois had pushed strong winds over dry, dusty farmland and northward into the Chicago area, the weather agency said.
In Missouri, St. Louis Mayor Cara Spencer said five people died, 38 were injured and more than 5,000 homes were affected in her city.
“The devastation is truly heartbreaking,” she said at a news conference Saturday. An overnight curfew was to continue in the most damaged neighborhoods.
Weather service radar indicated a likely tornado touched down between 2:30 p.m. and 2:50 p.m. in Clayton, Missouri, in the St. Louis area. The apparent tornado touched down in the area of Forest Park, home to the St. Louis Zoo and the site of the 1904 World’s Fair and Olympic Games the same year.
Three people needed aid after part of the Centennial Christian Church crumbled, St. Louis Fire Battalion Chief William Pollihan told The Associated Press.
Stacy Clark said his mother-in-law, Patricia Penelton, died in the church. He described her as a very active church volunteer who had many roles, including being part of the choir.
John Randle said he and his girlfriend were at the St. Louis Art Museum during the storm and were hustled into the basement with about 150 other people.
“You could see the doors flying open, tree branches flying by and people running,” said Randle, 19.
At the Saint Louis Zoo, falling trees severely damaged the roof of a butterfly facility. Staffers quickly corralled most of the butterflies, the zoo said on social media, and a conservatory in suburban Chesterfield is caring for the displaced creatures.
A tornado struck in Scott County, about 130 miles  south of St. Louis, killing two people, injuring several others and destroying multiple homes, Sheriff Derick Wheetley wrote on social media.
Forecasters say severe weather could batter parts of the Plains
The weather service said that supercells are likely to develop across parts of Texas and Oklahoma Saturday afternoon before becoming a line of storms in southwest Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas on Saturday night.
The biggest risks include large to very large hail that could be up to 3.5 inches  in size, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
These conditions were expected to continue on Sunday across parts of the central and southern Plains as well as parts of the central High Plains.
“Be prepared to take action if watches and warnings are issued for your area,” the weather service said.


Germany ‘deeply concerned’ about situation in Gaza

Updated 17 May 2025
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Germany ‘deeply concerned’ about situation in Gaza

  • A broad military offensive also risks worsening further the catastrophic humanitarian situation for Gaza’s population and the remaining hostages

BERLIN: Germany is “deeply concerned” about the situation in Gaza, where it said an intensified Israeli offensive could endanger the lives of hostages, including Germans, the Foreign Ministry said Saturday.

The offensive “could put the lives of the remaining hostages, including those of German hostages, in danger,” said a ministry statement.

“A broad military offensive also risks worsening further the catastrophic humanitarian situation for Gaza’s population and the remaining hostages,” it added.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani earlier urged Israel to stop its military offensive in Gaza, saying that Palestinian civilians must no longer pay the price of war.

“We have to tell the Israeli government ‘that’s enough’,” Tajani said in a statement.

“We no longer want to see the Palestinian population suffer. Stop the attacks, let’s secure a ceasefire, free the hostages, but leave in peace a people who are victims of Hamas,” he added.

The comments reflect growing international disquiet over Israel’s relentless attacks on Gaza.

Israel’s military campaign has devastated the tiny, crowded enclave, pushing nearly all its 2 million inhabitants from their homes and killing more than 53,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities.

Tajani was due to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Rome.

The Italian government has been one of Israel’s most vocal supporters within Europe, but unease is building over the devastation being wrought on Gaza.

Also on Saturday, a senior Hamas official said a new round of indirect negotiations with Israel aimed at ending the war in Gaza started in Doha “without any preconditions.” 

“This round of negotiations began without any preconditions from either side, and the negotiations are open to discussing all issues,” said senior Hamas official Taher Al-Nunu.

“Hamas will present its viewpoint on all issues, especially ending the war, (Israel’s) withdrawal and prisoner exchange.”

Prior rounds of negotiations have failed to secure a breakthrough on ending the war, and a two-month ceasefire between the sides fell apart when Israel resumed its operations in Gaza on March 18.