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MONTREAL: French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday it would be “a mistake” for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refuse a ceasefire in Lebanon, and that he would have to take “responsibility” for a regional escalation.
“The proposal that was made is a solid proposal,” Macron said at a news conference in Montreal, specifying that the plan supported by the United States and the EU had been prepared with Netanyahu himself.
Israel and Hezbollah each have strong incentives to heed international calls for a ceasefire that could avert all-out war — but that doesn’t mean they will.
Hezbollah is reeling after a sophisticated attack on personal devices killed and wounded hundreds of its members. Israeli airstrikes have killed two top commanders in Beirut in less than a week, and warplanes have pounded what Israel says are Hezbollah sites across large parts of Lebanon, killing over 600 people.
So far, Israel clearly has the upper hand militarily, which could make it less willing to compromise. But it’s unlikely to achieve its goal of halting Hezbollah rocket fire with air power alone, and a threatened ground invasion of Lebanon poses major risks.
After nearly a year of war, Israeli troops are still fighting Hamas in Gaza. And Hezbollah is a much more formidable force.
“Hezbollah has yet to employ 10 percent of its capabilities,” military affairs correspondent Yossi Yehoshua wrote in Yediot Ahronot, Israel’s largest daily newspaper. “The euphoria that is evident among the decision-makers and some of the public should be placed back in the attic: the situation is still complex and flammable.”
The United States and its allies, including Gulf Arab countries, have tried to offer a way out, proposing an immediate 21-day ceasefire to “provide space for diplomacy.”
But any deal would require both sides to back away from their core demands, and they may decide the price is too high.
Hezbollah wants a truce in Gaza, too
Hezbollah began launching rockets, drones and missiles into northern Israel after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack in the south triggered the war in Gaza. Hezbollah and Hamas are both allies of Iran, and the Lebanese militant group says it is acting in solidarity with Palestinians.
Israel has responded with waves of airstrikes. Overall, the fighting has killed dozens of people in Israel, more than 1,500 in Lebanon and forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from communities on both sides of the border.
Hezbollah has said it will halt the attacks if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. But months of negotiations over Gaza led by the United States, Qatar and Egypt have repeatedly stalled, and Hamas might be less motivated to reach a deal if it thinks Hezbollah and Iran will join a wider war against Israel.
For Hezbollah, halting its rocket fire without securing any tangible gains for the Palestinians would be seen as a capitulation to Israeli pressure, with all of its recent casualties suffered in vain.
Any deal involving a ceasefire in Gaza would be a hard sell for Israel, which would view it as a reward for Hezbollah rocket attacks that have displaced tens of thousands of its citizens for nearly a year.
For Israel, a ceasefire might not be enough
Israel’s goals in Lebanon are far narrower than in Gaza, where Prime Minister Benjmain Netanyahu has vowed “total victory” over Hamas and the return of scores of hostages.
Israel wants the tens of thousands of people who were evacuated from northern communities nearly a year ago to return safely to their homes. And it wants to ensure that Hezbollah never carries out an Oct. 7-style attack.
A weekslong ceasefire — which would give Hezbollah a chance to reset after major attacks on its chain of command and communications — might not be enough.
Few Israelis are likely to return if they know it’s only temporary, and even an agreement for a lasting ceasefire would face skepticism.
The UN Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah called for the militants to withdraw north of the Litani River, some 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the border, and for the area between to be patrolled by Lebanese forces and UN peacekeepers.
Israel says that provision was never implemented and is likely to demand additional guarantees in any new ceasefire. But Hezbollah is far stronger than Lebanon’s regular armed forces and the UN detachment, neither of which would be able to impose any agreement by force.
Netanyahu’s partners want him to fight on
Netanyahu leads the most religious and nationalist government in Israel’s history. His far-right coalition partners have threatened to bring down his government if he makes too many concessions to Hamas, and they are also likely to oppose any deal with Hezbollah.
Bezalel Smotrich, Netanyahu’s hard-line finance minister, said Thursday that Israel’s campaign in the north “should only end in one scenario – crushing Hezbollah and denying its ability to harm residents of the north.”
Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right National Security Minister, said he would not support a temporary ceasefire and would leave the government if it becomes permanent.
Although opposition parties would likely support the ceasefire, the defection of his partners would eventually bring down Netanyahu’s government and force early elections, potentially leaving him even more exposed to investigations into the security failures of Oct. 7 and corruption charges that predate the war. It could even mean the end of his long political career.
Iran has sent mixed signals
In Lebanon, Prime Minister Najib Mikati has welcomed the ceasefire proposal, but he has little power to impose an agreement on Hezbollah.
Iran, which helped establish Hezbollah in the 1980s and is the source of its advanced weapons, has more sway over the group, but it has yet to express a position on any ceasefire. It likely fears a wider war that could bring it into direct conflict with the United States, but can’t stand by indefinitely while its most powerful proxy force is dismantled.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate elected over the summer, struck a more conciliatory tone toward the West than his predecessors when he addressed the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.
But he had sharp words for Israel and said its heavy bombardment of Lebanon in recent days “cannot go unanswered.”
UNITED NATIONS: The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog on Thursday said Iran is showing “willingness” to re-engage on the nuclear issue, but that Tehran will not reconsider its decision to deny access to top UN inspectors.
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said Tehran was “showing signs of willingness to reengage, not only with the IAEA, but also... with our former partners in the nuclear agreement of 2015.”
Grossi spoke after meeting this week with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who played a key role in the negotiations that culminated in the 2015 landmark nuclear deal with world powers which has since unraveled.
“It’s a moment where there is a possibility to do something” on the nuclear question, Grossi told AFP on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
“The advantage Araghchi has is that he knows everything about this process, so that allows us to move faster,” Grossi said at the IAEA’s New York offices.
In recent years, Tehran has decreased its cooperation with the IAEA, while significantly ramping up its nuclear program, including amassing large stockpiles of uranium enriched to 60 percent — close to the 90 percent needed to develop an atomic bomb.
But since the July election of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Tehran has signaled openness to relaunching talks to revive the nuclear agreement.
The landmark deal — also known by its acronym JCPOA — started to unravel in 2018 when then-US president Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from it and reimposed sanctions, and Iran retaliated by stepping up its nuclear activities.
Efforts to revive the deal — bringing the United States back on board and Iran back into compliance — have so far been fruitless.
“If things move in a positive way... and I think this is the intention of the president and the foreign minister (of Iran), there will be a return to the conversations with the former partners,” Grossi said.
Tehran, however, is not willing to walk back on a decision it took last year to ban some of the IAEA’s “best inspectors,” Grossi said, a move Teheran initially described as retaliation for “political abuses” by the United States, France, Germany and Britain.
“They are not going to restore the inspectors to the list,” Grossi said.
“Maybe there will be a review of that. I will keep pushing,” he added, explaining that he is due to visit Tehran in the “coming weeks.”
During his visit, Grossi plans to discuss “different monitoring and verification measures that we could agree on prior to a wider agreement.”
“I think getting an agreement with Iran on these things would be a very constructive indication... toward a future negotiation,” Grossi said.
“If you do not allow me to establish a baseline of all the capacities that the country has at the moment, then what kind of confidence and trust are you injecting in the system for a negotiation with other partners?” he added.
According to a diplomatic source, the European side is skeptical about the possibility of returning to the framework of the initial pact.
Grossi said the actual framework of the deal would be left to Iran and Western powers.
“Will it be the same? Will it be updated? Will it be something completely different? This is for them to decide,” Grossi said.
NEW YORK CITY: A high-level meeting on the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugee produced a “global vote of confidence” in the agency despite Israel’s “political assassination campaign” against it, Jordan’s foreign minister said on Thursday.
Ayman Safadi was speaking at a joint press conference with UNRWA Commissioner General Philippe Lazzarini following the meeting at the UN headquarters.
Safadi said: “Today rallied international support behind an agency which carries out heroic work in helping the Palestinian people through the misery that Israel continues to bring to Gaza.
“Nobody can do the job that UNRWA is doing. It’s irreplaceable. It’s indispensable. It’s needed now more than ever before.
“UNRWA and its staff made the ultimate sacrifice. Israel has killed 222 UNRWA staff members. It targets them. It doesn’t allow them to operate.”
Safadi said more than 50 countries attended the meeting. He hailed UNRWA’s “noble job” in saving the lives of thousands of Palestinian children from paralysis through a polio vaccination campaign.
The agency has become the victim of an Israeli “political assassination campaign” designed to undermine support for the Palestinian people, Safadi said.
It is “incomprehensible” that a UN member state would designate a UN agency as a terrorist organization, he added.
“That can’t happen, and we must stand against that,” Safadi said, because “it’s undermining the whole UN system, and the world mustn’t allow that, and we’ll stand up to it, along with all our partners who showed up in support of UNRWA today.”
He added: “We’ll continue to do everything to ensure that UNRWA stands because UNRWA is also a beacon of hope for Palestinians, and that’s why Israel has launched the political assassination campaign on UNRWA, because it wants to liquidate the cause of the Palestinian refugees, which shouldn’t be done and won’t be done.”
Lazzarini echoed Safadi’s words, describing the Israeli campaign against the agency as “relentless” and “coming from every corner.”
He said: “These aren’t just attacks against UNRWA. They’re attacks against the broader UN system, attacks against the broader international community.
“They aim, first, at stripping Palestinians from the refugee statute, but secondly, they aim at weakening or putting an end to the aspirations of the Palestinians for self-determination.”
The UNRWA chief said his agency and others, as well as international NGOs, have seen staff being “phased out” in the Occupied Territories as a result of Israeli practices.
Calls to dissolve UNRWA or end its presence in the Middle East would be “unconscionable, unprecedented, and would open an extraordinary Pandora’s Box,” Lazzarini warned.
To counter the Israeli campaign, “we’ll continue to push the true narrative that UNRWA deserves to be supported,” Safadi said.
“UNRWA deserves to be thanked for the tremendous sacrifices that it continues to do in the execution of its global mandate.”
Both officials described conditions on the ground in Gaza almost one year on from Israel’s invasion.
The UNRWA chief warned that the Palestinian enclave is a “place which definitely horrifies even the most seasoned humanitarians who’ve seen it all over the last 20, 30 years.”
He said more than 1 million school-age children in Gaza are “deeply traumatized” and living amongst rubble.
“An entire generation might be sacrificed if they aren’t brought back to learning,” he added. “Obviously learning in this environment is extraordinary difficult, but we’re trying to make sure that they lose as little as possible.”
Lazzarini discussed the financing of his agency, warning that the shortfall in funding from October to the end of the year stood at $60-$80 million.
But he said UNRWA would make sure to “bridge the gap” despite some donor countries signaling a decline in foreign aid due to austerity measures.
Lazzarini also highlighted UNRWA operations in Lebanon, saying shelters are now open to “not only Palestinian refugees, but also Lebanese and Syrian refugees.”
The UNRWA meeting on Thursday was backed by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot.
“Virtually all donors have reversed their funding suspensions” to UNRWA, Guterres said in a statement, adding that “123 countries have signed up to the declaration on shared commitments to UNRWA.
“This underscores the consensus that UNRWA’s role across the West Bank and the region is vital. Friends, there is no alternative to UNRWA.”
Barrot said: “The role of UNRWA is necessary in the Gaza Strip to provide vital humanitarian aid to a civilian population of Gaza whose needs are immense.
“France pays tribute to the UNRWA personnel and to all the humanitarian personnel killed in Gaza while they were trying to rescue civilians.”
NEW YORK: The US has accused Russia of discussing weapon transfers with Houthis, whose attacks on Red Sea shipping are holding hostage a vital commercial waterway.
Speaking on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking said Moscow was “cutting its deals” with the Houthis to allow their ships to sail through the Red Sea unharmed.
“We have confirmation that the Russians and the Houthis are in dialogue about ways to cooperate,” including on weapon transfers, Lenderking said.
“We don’t know that weapons are being transferred as we speak, but it’s come to the point that we’re all sounding the alarm bell to ensure this does not happen,” he added.
If the weapon transfers were to materialize, it “could potentially change the conflict in a significant manner,” Lenderking said, warning of “an escalation” that would derail already stalled efforts to end Yemen’s war.
“The notion that the Russians would provide the Houthis with lethal weapons is deeply alarming to the countries of the region,” he said.
Russia has been stepping up military relationships with Iran and North Korea, both under heavy sanctions, as it seeks to bolster its arsenal in its war in Ukraine.
Russia’s relationship with the US has deteriorated sharply since the invasion of Ukraine, with Washington leading the West in slapping sanctions on Moscow and arming Kyiv.
The Houthis have been firing drones and missiles at ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since November, saying they are targeting vessels linked to Israel, the US, and Britain in a show of solidarity with Palestinians over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
The Houthi campaign has killed at least four sailors and sunk two ships.
One vessel — the Galaxy Leader — was hijacked in November and continues to be held by the Houthis along with its 25 international crew.
GAZA STRIP: Civil defense rescuers in Gaza said an Israeli strike on a school-turned-shelter killed at least seven people, with the Israeli military saying it had targeted a Hamas command center.
The vast majority of the besieged Gaza Strip’s 2.4 million people have been displaced at least once by the war, sparked by the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, with many seeking shelter in school buildings.
Civil defense agency spokesman Mahmud Bassal said there were “seven martyrs, including children, and many wounded following an Israeli missile attack that targeted Al-Faluja School in Jabalia camp in north Gaza.”
The military said it carried out “precise strikes” targeting Hamas militants operating inside what it said was a command-and-control center at the Al-Faluja School.
Thursday’s attack was the latest in a series of Israeli strikes on school buildings housing displaced people in Gaza, where fighting has raged for nearly a year.
A strike on the UN-run Al-Jawni School in central Gaza on Sept. 11 drew an international outcry.
In his address to the UN General Assembly, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called on the international community to stop sending weapons to Israel to halt the bloodshed in the West Bank and Gaza, singling out the US.
Abbas said that Washington continued to provide diplomatic cover and weapons to Israel for its war in Gaza despite the mounting death toll there, now at 41,534 according to the Health Ministry in the Strip.
“Stop this crime. Stop it now. Stop killing children and women. Stop the genocide. Stop sending weapons to Israel. This madness cannot continue. The entire world is responsible for what is happening to our people in Gaza and the West Bank,” Abbas told the UN General Assembly.
“The US alone stood and said: ‘No, the fighting will continue.’ It did this by using the veto,” he said, referring to the veto repeatedly wielded to thwart censure in the UN Security Council of Israel’s campaign in Gaza.
“It furnished Israel with the deadly weapons that it used to kill thousands of innocent civilians, children, and women.
“This further encouraged Israel to continuous aggression,” he added, saying that Israel “does not deserve” to be in the UN.
