BEIRUT: Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a monumental and hugely demoralizing blow to the group he led for 32 years, marking a significant inflection point for Lebanon and the region.
Hezbollah’s announcement of his death Friday triggered tears and celebrations across the Arab world, pointing to the widespread reach and influence of a divisive man who has been at the forefront of Middle Eastern politics for decades.
The 64-year-old Nasrallah headed arguably the most powerful paramilitary force in the world — also a US-designated terror organization — that is now left without a clear successor at a critical juncture. It remains to be seen whether his death will be a trigger for an all-out war between the two sides that could potentially drag in Iran and the United States.
Here are some things to know about the situation:
Is it a decapitating blow?
Nasrallah’s assassination is a severe blow to the group, not a decapitating one. But analysts say Hezbollah will need some time to absorb the shock and recover.
“Nasrallah’s killing is a significant setback for Hezbollah, not only because of the pivotal role he played in Hezbollah’s strategy but also because his elimination reveals the extent of the group’s vulnerability vis-à-vis Israel,” said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank.
“This will shake the confidence of Hezbollah’s Iran-backed allies across the Arab world, from the Houthis in Yemen to the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, as well as Iran itself, sparking a tectonic shift in Iran’s network of influence in the Middle East,” she added.
It is not the first time Israel has killed a Hezbollah leader. Nasrallah took over from Abbas Mousawi, who was killed by an Israeli helicopter attack in 1992.
But Hezbollah today is very different from the ragtag organization it was in the ‘90s. In recent years, he has presided over an army-like group estimated to have tens of thousands of fighters and a sophisticated arsenal capable of reaching anywhere inside Israel.
It has become the chief part of a cluster of Iranian-backed factions and governments of the self-named “Axis of Resistance.”
“Hezbollah will not back down following the killing of its leader, as it will need to convey steadfastness in the face of Israel if it’s going to retain its credibility as the strongest ‘resistance’ actor in the region,” said Khatib.
Iran’s dilemma
In his first remarks Saturday following Nasrallah’s death, Iran’s supreme leader gave no indication of how Tehran will respond.
In a vague statement, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “all regional resistance forces” support and stand beside Hezbollah, but he did not elaborate.
Iran is the main backer of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli militant groups in the region, but it has largely avoided clashing directly with Israel due to domestic considerations.
Hezbollah, however, is Iran’s chief ally and proxy group, and Tehran may have to respond to retain its credibility with its partners in the axis.
“Iran is very much in a policy dilemma right now,” said Firas Maksad, of the Middle East Institute. On one hand, clearly it very much has wanted to avoid an all-out and direct confrontation, given its long-standing preference for asymmetric warfare and using proxies.
“But on the other hand, a lack of a worthy response given the magnitude of the event will only encourage Israel to push deeper past Iran’s red lines,” he said. Not responding also sends a signal of weakness to its regional proxies.
Any direct Iranian involvement risks dragging Israel’s chief ally, the US, into the war, just over a month before the US elections and at a time Iran has signaled its interest in renewing negotiations with the US over its nuclear program.
Maksad said one possible scenario is a coordinated response from the entire axis. Whether that will be coupled with a direct response from Iran itself is an open question.
Who will succeed Nasrallah?
There is no one nearly as influential and respected among the group’s remaining leadership as Nasrallah.
The man widely regarded as his heir is Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah who oversees the group’s political affairs. It is not known if he survived Friday’s attack, and the Hezbollah statement announcing Nasrallah’s death Friday made no mention of a successor.
The group’s Shoura Council will have to meet in the coming days or weeks to choose its new leadership. Lebanese journalist and writer Maher Abi Nader said Safieddine or Nabil Kaouk, a member of the group’s executive council, were the likely successors.
Whoever ends up replacing Nasrallah in the current atmosphere will have to contend with a deeply weakened force facing growing anger and frustration on the home front.
In just over 10 days, the Iran-backed group has been hit by a series of devastating attacks that dealt a severe blow to its military structure and exposed deep intelligence failures.
Explosives hidden in the group’s pagers and walkie-talkies killed dozens of people and wounded thousands — many of them Hezbollah members. Israel has also rained down missiles on residential areas where the group has a strong presence, killing hundreds and displacing tens of thousands of people.
Nasrallah was regarded by supporters as a charismatic and shrewd leader. Despite being a divisive figure, he is credited with pushing Israeli forces from south Lebanon in 2000 following an 18-year occupation, as well as transforming the organization from a local militia to a major political player in Lebanon and a top armed force in the region.
He held tremendous sway over the group and the country’s Shiite community.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based think tank Institute for National Security Studies, noted that Nasrallah was sometimes a “voice of reason” who was interested in engaging Israel in a war of attrition, holding the militant group back from using the full force of their formidable arsenal against Israel.
Filling those shoes will be a tough act, analysts say.
Growing tensions in Lebanon
Any new Hezbollah leader will also have to contend with rising resentment and frustration among a significant section of the Lebanese population. For years, critics say, Hezbollah deprived Lebanon of its sovereignty by behaving as a state within a state and making unilateral decisions involving war and peace.
Many Christians and Sunnis, as well as a portion of the Shiite community, are opposed to the war and what they regard as Nasrallah’s unilateral decision to attack Israel in support of the Gaza front on Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas attack on Israel that ignited the war in the Palestinian territory.
Tensions are extremely high in tiny Lebanon, which is already drowning under the force of an economic meltdown and multiple other crises. A humanitarian crisis has rapidly unfolded with tens of thousands of people displaced, many of them sleeping in parks and makeshift shelters. Dozens of schools designated as sheltered became full within days.
The country is bankrupt and has been without a president and functioning government for two years. In the void, sectarian tensions and frustrations within the country could spiral into armed violence.
Maha Yahya, director of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said Hezbollah now has to contend with all of that as it struggles to regroup.
“And it will have to be more accommodating to Lebanon’s other political parties and communities,” she said.
What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
https://arab.news/zjsk8
What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
- It remains to be seen whether his death will be a trigger for an all-out war between the two sides
- Iran is the main backer of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli militant groups in the region
Israeli military says sirens sounded in Eilat
BAGHDAD: Israeli military said on Tuesday that sirens were sounded in the Red Sea port city of Eilat.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq said in a statement that it targeted a “vital target” in Eilat by drones.
The Iraqi pro-Iran group has been launching attacks on Israel since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza.
UK humanitarian agency report exposes systematic life-threatening conditions for Palestinians in Gaza
- Findings underscore severe challenges facing Palestinian civilians during Israel’s war with Hamas
LONDON: A report released on Tuesday from Action for Humanity International, one of the UK’s leading humanitarian agencies operating in Gaza, reveals the conditions faced by internally displaced people after Israel’s displacement orders to Palestinian civilians.
The report claims that these orders, along with conditions in designated “humanitarian zones,” are creating life-threatening environments that amount to “systematic erasure.”
The findings underscore the severe challenges facing Palestinian civilians during Israel’s war with Hamas.
According to the survey, 15 percent of respondents were unable to evacuate due to disability or caregiving responsibilities, a reality compounded by the fact that 35 percent of people received less than an hour’s notice of evacuation orders.
The survey also found that 98 percent of respondents had been displaced several times, with nearly a quarter having been displaced 10 or more times in the past year.
In humanitarian zones conditions are reportedly dire.
According to the report, 73 percent of respondents described them as “poor” or “very poor,” with four out of five lacking sufficient access to food, and two-thirds unable to obtain clean drinking water. Additionally, 80 percent of respondents reported no access to adequate medical care.
Charles Lawley, director of communications and advocacy at AFH, criticized the treatment of Gaza’s civilians, saying that, in his view, the situation in Gaza amounted to “erasure in plain sight.”
“This report shows that Gaza is being erased in plain sight,” he said. “The so-called ‘evacuation orders’ — and I hesitate to call them that, as that is the language used by the Israeli military and implies it is doing the people of Gaza a favor by giving them a warning before bombing their homes — inflict terrors, are ambiguous and difficult to comply with, on the occasions they are given.”
Lawley further condemned the conditions in the so-called humanitarian zones.
“The conditions are not fit for humans ... with such damage to infrastructure, the bombing of Gaza, even with so-called evacuation orders, puts people who cannot afford the transport to escape and those with caregiving or physical barriers to escape — such as pregnant women, the elderly, and people with disabilities — at a heightened risk of being killed, as escaping is even more difficult for them.”
In a strong rebuke of the ongoing military action, Lawley argued that the pattern of bombardment, ground incursions, and deprivation of basic resources suggested a coordinated strategy that “aligns with acts of extermination and genocide.”
He further suggested that recent reports indicating Israeli government intentions to annex Gaza raised additional concerns, noting that “these plans ... appear designed to inflict conditions of life aimed at the physical destruction of the group, in whole or in part ... as a strategic tool in broader aims for territorial annexation.”
The full report is available to read here.
Israel’s Netanyahu dismisses defense minister in surprise announcement
- Netanyahu and Gallant have repeatedly been at odds throughout the war in Gaza
JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday dismissed his popular defense minister, Yoav Gallant, in a surprise announcement that came as the country is embroiled in wars on multiple fronts across the region.
Netanyahu and Gallant have repeatedly been at odds over the war in Gaza. But Netanyahu had avoided firing his rival. Netanyahu cited “significant gaps” and a “crisis of trust” between the men in his Tuesday evening announcement.
“In the midst of a war, more than ever, full trust is required between the prime minister and defense minister,” Netanyahu said. “Unfortunately, although in the first months of the campaign there was such trust and there was very fruitful work, during the last months this trust cracked between me and the defense minister.”
In the early days of the war, Israel’s leadership presented a unified front as it responded to Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack. But as the war dragged on and spread to Lebanon, key policy differences have emerged. While Netanyahu has called for continued military pressure on Hamas, Gallant had taken a more pragmatic approach, saying that military force has created the necessary conditions for a diplomatic deal that could bring home hostages held by the militant group.
Gallant, a former general who has gained public respect with a gruff, no-nonsense personality, said in a statement: “The security of the state of Israel always was, and will always remain, my life’s mission.”
Gallant has worn a simple, black buttoned shirt throughout the war in a sign of sorrow over the Oct. 7 attack and developed a strong relationship with his US counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
A previous attempt by Netanyahu to fire Gallant in March 2023 sparked widespread street protests against Netanyahu. He also flirted with the idea of dismissing Gallant over the summer but held off until Tuesday’s announcement.
Gallant will be replaced by Foreign Minister Israel Katz, a Netanyahu loyalist and veteran Cabinet minister who was a junior officer in the military. Gideon Saar, a former Netanyahu rival who recently rejoined the government, will take the foreign affairs post.
Netanyahu has a long history of neutralizing his rivals. In his statement, he claimed he had made “many attempts” to bridge the gaps with Gallant.
“But they kept getting wider. They also came to the knowledge of the public in an unacceptable way, and worse than that, they came to the knowledge of the enemy — our enemies enjoyed it and derived a lot of benefit from it,” he said.
Israel demolishes seven Palestinian homes in east Jerusalem
- Activist Fakhri Abu Diab, one of those affected by the demolition, confirmed that “at least seven homes have been demolished, and the operation is ongoing“
- He said that both houses and apartments were affected
JERUSALEM: Municipal workers demolished seven homes in occupied east Jerusalem’s Silwan neighborhood on Tuesday, Palestinian residents and the municipality said, after an Israeli court called their construction illegal.
“This morning the Jerusalem Municipality, with a security escort from the Israel police, began its enforcement against illegal buildings in the Al-Bustan neighborhood in Silwan,” Jerusalem’s Israeli-controlled city hall said in a statement.
Activist Fakhri Abu Diab, one of those affected by the demolition, confirmed that “at least seven homes have been demolished, and the operation is ongoing.”
He said that both houses and apartments were affected.
“They demolished my home, which I had renovated after it was previously demolished earlier this year, as well as my son’s house, Haitham Ayed’s family home, and four homes belonging to the Al-Ruwaidi family,” Abu Diab told AFP.
He said around “40 people, including children, were affected by the demolitions in the neighborhood, leaving them homeless.”
An AFP photographer saw at least four bulldozers operating on Tuesday at demolition sites in the neighborhood under tight Israeli police supervision.
In a statement, Jerusalem city hall pointed to court orders that call for the demolition of the buildings due to zoning laws that make them illegal.
However, Palestinian residents and activists accuse the municipality of concealing its true intentions.
“The buildings, like most of the buildings in the neighborhood, are located on an area that is a green designation, that is, an open public area and where there is no possibility for zoning,” the municipality said, adding that the area would become a green zone instead.
Israeli rights group Ir Amim argued that the true aim of the demolitions is to connect Israeli settler pockets implanted in Palestinian areas to west Jerusalem.
The non-profit organization said in a statement that demolition, “encouraged by Israel’s right-wing government,” is expected to affect “115 homes, housing around 1,500 residents” in the neighborhood.
“The demolition of Al-Bustan and the displacement of its residents is an integral part of settlement efforts aimed at Judaising Silwan and transforming the area into a public park, facilitating connections between isolated settler communities in Silwan and linking them with West Jerusalem,” Ir Amim said.
It but did not specify the number of homes affected on Tuesday, as “the demolition is ongoing.”
Abu Diab echoed Ir Amim, saying the true aim of the demolitions was “to reduce the percentage of Arabs and alter the demographic composition of Jerusalem in favor of (Israeli) settlers,” connecting them to west Jerusalem.
Israel “is above international law, has escaped accountability, and is exploiting global focus on the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and the US elections,” he said.
Israel occupied east Jerusalem in 1967 and later annexed it in a move not recognized by the international community.
Some 230,000 Israeli settlers live in east Jerusalem, according to the United Nations. Another 3,000 live in Palestinian neighborhoods within east Jerusalem’s boundaries, according to Israeli rights organization Peace Now.
King Salman invites Najib Mikati to attend Arab-Islamic summit aimed at halting Israeli aggression
- Residential buildings and vehicles targeted by Israeli airstrikes
- Israeli army claims to have destroyed underground Hezbollah structures in the south
BEIRUT: The caretaker prime minister of Lebanon, Najib Mikati, received an invitation on Tuesday from King Salman bin Abdulaziz to participate in the extraordinary joint Arab-Islamic summit scheduled for Nov. 11 in Riyadh.
The summit will address Israeli assaults on the Palestinian people and Lebanese territories, coinciding with an increase in Israeli drone strikes in Beirut, southern Lebanon and Bekaa, resulting in further civilian casualties.
Mikati received the invitation from Waleed Bukhari, the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon.
The invitation stated that participation in the summit is a “reaffirmation of Arab and Islamic solidarity in efforts to halt Israeli aggression and to promote the pursuit of a just resolution to the Palestinian issue, ensuring the rights of the Palestinian people to establish their independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital.”
Israel’s ground war in has completed its 44th day, and the toll since Hezbollah opened the southern front 13 months ago exceeds 3,000 dead and more than 13,000 wounded.
As the assaults diminished in the southern suburbs of Beirut, residents had the chance to inspect their homes and retrieve whatever belongings they could. However, the confrontations remained intense in the southern regions, and airstrikes continued in the south and in the Bekaa region.
Two Israeli airstrikes targeted the Jiyeh area, 28 km south of Beirut, killing a woman and wounding seven people — who were taken to Sibline Governmental Hospital.
Airstrikes hit a building near Sheikh Ragheb Harb Hospital in Toul, and a shop in Jwaya. An airstrike on the outskirts of Bazouriyeh caused injuries, while four people were killed in an Israeli airstrike in the town of Baflieh in the Tyre district.
An elderly woman, Ghadia Al-Suwaid, who had insisted on staying in her home in the border town of Al-Dhayra Al-Fawqa, was suspected to have been kidnapped by Israeli soldiers. The woman’s relatives told the National News Agency that “they entered the town in the morning and did not find her.”
Meanwhile, a Red Cross convoy, in coordination with UNIFIL, headed to Wata Khiam, also on the border, to complete the recovery of 15 bodies from rubble after airstrikes hit their home eight days ago.
The Red Cross retrieved five bodies two days ago, but larger machinery was needed to continue clearing the rubble.
An airstrike on the town of Deir Kifa killed two people and wounded several others.
Israeli military vehicles were seen advancing at the Shebaa Farms toward Al-Sadana heights and Shebaa Gate, where clashes were reported between Israeli forces and Hezbollah members.
On Tuesday morning, Israeli forces tried to infiltrate Rmeish but were forced to retreat after clashes with Hezbollah fighters, while in Haris an unknown motorcyclist was killed in an Israeli airstrike.
In Bekaa, an Israeli drone targeted a car on the road between Hortaala and Talia, carrying a displaced family from Baalbek. The raid killed three siblings, Nathalie, Raed and Mohammed Naji Dandash, and wounded their mother, Iman Fawzat Habib, who was transferred to Dar Al Amal University Hospital.
Hezbollah claimed to have struck “a gathering of Israeli soldiers in Doviv and Ma’ale Golani barracks, and another … in the hills of Kfar Shuba. We bombed an explosives factory in Hadera, south of Haifa, with a salvo of qualitative missiles.”
Israeli army spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, meanwhile, claimed that Israeli forces had destroyed “an underground infrastructure of about 70 meters long and confiscating weapons and rocket launchers in rugged and underground areas in southern Lebanon.”