What Israel has in store for Lebanon

An expressively euphoric and defiant Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is upping the ante in his war on Lebanon, having achieved in less than two weeks what his army has been struggling to secure in Gaza for almost a year. No one could have imagined that Israel would manage to carry out a series of intelligence-backed strikes on Hezbollah culminating in last Friday’s assassination of the Lebanese party’s charismatic Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and other top generals through multiple precise and heavy blows on the group’s main subterranean command center in southern Beirut.

The common belief has always been that a war between these two enemies would be brutal, lengthy and costly to both sides. However, Nasrallah’s decision to strike northern Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, in support of Hamas in Gaza following the latter’s stunning attack on southern Israel the day before sealed the pro-Iran leader’s fate, as well as that of his heavily armed militia.

Israel had always said that it would eventually turn its attention to its northern front, as more than 60,000 of its citizens had been forced to flee under Hezbollah’s daily bombardments. For almost 11 months, the two sides exchanged blows within what were termed the “rules of engagement.” Nasrallah, 64, insisted that he would only agree to a ceasefire once Israel had halted its aggression on Gaza. Netanyahu, in his UN General Assembly speech on Friday, was adamant. He declared that Israel would not stop its war on both Gaza and Lebanon until it achieved “total victory.”

The speed and precision with which Israel has been able to degrade Hezbollah’s command and control infrastructure, as well as the party’s top leadership, has been astounding. It was based on a remarkable intelligence breakthrough that underlined Israel’s ability to infiltrate Hezbollah’s most secretive communications and logistics apparatus.

The speed and precision with which Israel has been able to degrade Hezbollah has been astounding. 

Osama Al-Sharif

This breach has encouraged Netanyahu to go even further, not only to degrade and even destroy Hezbollah as a military entity, but to push for an even more ambitious objective: to break up Hezbollah’s demographic incubator by destroying most of the south and displacing over a million Lebanese, mostly Shiites, from southern Lebanon.

Alongside the ground operations that began on Monday night, Israel is using its air superiority to bomb Hezbollah bases, both demographic and military, thus causing Gaza-like destruction in the south, the Bekaa, the southern coastal region and all the way to Baalbek in the east. It is hoping that tampering with demographic fault lines will revive sectarian tensions in a country that has for decades endured an asymmetrical balance of power that favors the armed Hezbollah. The party has had a strong grip on Lebanon’s fragile political system, exercising a veto over the choice of president and prime minister. The political vacuum has deepened the economic situation while irking Hezbollah’s main rivals, the Christian Maronites and their armed wing, represented by the Lebanese Forces.

Netanyahu is hoping that the weakening of Hezbollah will encourage its rivals to rise up against it, reopening old civil war wounds.

In reality, Lebanon is facing an existential challenge that is no less serious than the civil war in the 1970s and the 1982 Israeli invasion. By enforcing a military blockade on Lebanon, Israel is hoping to cut off the Iranian lifeline that keeps Hezbollah alive. This is a multifronted siege of Lebanon whose goal is to spread chaos and confusion and, ultimately, dismantle the central state.

Iran can do little to help a besieged Hezbollah. The US has come out in support of Israel’s aggression. The stunning Israeli intelligence infiltration of Hezbollah has also created doubts within Iran’s security entities. For now, it will have to absorb the shock as it reviews its own sensitive military and security systems for fear that Israel may have managed similar breaches.

Netanyahu is playing President Joe Biden while knowing full well that a divided US Congress, in an election year, could cripple the White House and its ability to use its leverage on the Israeli premier. American analysts admit that Netanyahu is now the leader who sets the region’s political agenda, not the US. All Biden can do now is lend support to Israel’s wars while claiming to be seeking diplomatic solutions.

Lebanon is alone in this ordeal. Even France, its former colonial sponsor, can do little to come to its aid. President Emanuel Macron, who says he will not allow Lebanon to become another Gaza, can do nothing to stop the Israeli attacks or intervene as a mediator.

With a ground invasion of southern Lebanon now underway, Israel will seek to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River. This could prove to be a mistake.

Netanyahu is hoping that the weakening of Hezbollah will encourage its rivals to rise up against it, reopening old civil war wounds. 

Osama Al-Sharif

The ground invasion will be met with significant resistance and will unite the Lebanese people behind Hezbollah. It could also change the US and Arab stands and undermine Israel’s diplomatic stance. Moreover, Iran, while hesitant to provide overt support to its Lebanese proxy, might be forced to get involved to avert a total defeat for Hezbollah.

Netanyahu’s maverick approach to both ongoing wars could prove detrimental to him and Israel. He now sees an opportunity to impose the “new Middle East” paradigm that he has proselytized: a region free from the “axis of evil” that opposes Israel’s existence. Such a scenario sees Lebanon eventually partitioned into mini-states. Such a gambit will almost certainly backfire and could trigger prevalent and grassroots undercurrents across the region. Let us remember that Hamas and Hezbollah appeared on the scene following Israeli attempts to change the status quo in Palestine and Lebanon, respectively.

It is too early to pronounce Hezbollah dead, even according to Israeli pundits. The group may have been badly wounded, but it survives. It will be able to regroup despite suffering an almost fatal blow. Netanyahu may be celebrating prematurely. He will try to spread “creative chaos” in Lebanon, but his gamble may backfire. Hezbollah is still able to inflict pain on Israel. And Iran, while reluctant to enter the fray, is capable of providing its proxies with the necessary ammunition to hit Israel.

However, the political and military systems established in Lebanon after 2006 are being tested. The country’s warlords must be careful as they ponder their next step. Netanyahu’s endgame contravenes Lebanon’s strategic interests and survival. That is what they should keep in mind today.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010