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Oil Updates – crude edges up from two-week lows as investors await US inventory data

Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $74.39 a barrel by 7:08 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 17 October 2024
Reuters
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Oil Updates – crude edges up from two-week lows as investors await US inventory data

Updated 17 October 2024
Reuters

SINGAPORE: Oil prices edged higher on Thursday from two-week lows, with investors eyeing developments in the Middle East and more details on China’s stimulus plans, as well as awaiting the release of official US oil inventory data.

Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $74.39 a barrel by 7:08 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $70.58 a barrel, up 19 cents, or 0.3 percent.

Both benchmarks settled down on Wednesday, closing at their lowest levels since Oct. 2 for a second day in a row.

The benchmarks are down 6-7 percent so far this week after the OPEC and the International Energy Agency cut demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

Prices have also fallen as risk premiums have cooled with fears having eased that a retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran could disrupt oil supplies, though uncertainty remains over conflict in the Middle East.

“We are now playing a waiting game for two things. Firstly the China NPC (National People’s Congress) standing committee to flesh out the details and the size of the fiscal stimulus package which I believe is coming,” Tony Sycamore, IG market analyst in Sydney, said.

Investors are waiting for further details from Beijing on its broad plans announced on Oct. 12 to revive its ailing economy.

China said on Thursday it would expand a “white list” of housing projects eligible for financing and increase bank lending for such developments to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) as it aims to shore up its ailing property market.

Sycamore said Israel’s response to Iran’s recent attack was the second major focus for the market.

“It’s coming, we know that but we don’t know when,” he said, adding that both factors created upside risks for crude oil prices.

In Iran, the authorities are working to control an oil spill off Kharg Island, the country’s IRNA news agency reported on Wednesday.

“It appears to be unrelated to the Israel-Hamas war, but it drew attention to Iran’s oil export facilities,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

In the US, crude oil and fuel stocks fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday, against expectations of a build-up in crude stockpiles.

Crude stocks fell by 1.58 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 11, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 5.93 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 2.67 million barrels, they said.

Ten analysts polled by Reuters had estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 1.8 million barrels in the week to Oct. 11.

“Any signs of weak demand in EIA’s weekly inventory report could put further downward pressure on oil prices,” ANZ analysts said.

The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, will release its data 6:00 p.m. Saudi time on Thursday.

Also supporting oil prices, the European Central Bank is likely to lower interest rates again on Thursday, the first back-to-back rate cut in 13 years, as it shifts focus from cooling inflation in the eurozone to protecting economic growth.

Topics: oil updates oil prices

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IMF forecasts Bahrain’s economy to grow by 3% in 2024 amid fiscal reforms

Updated 8 min 10 sec ago
MIGUEL HADCHITY 
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IMF forecasts Bahrain’s economy to grow by 3% in 2024 amid fiscal reforms

Updated 8 min 10 sec ago
MIGUEL HADCHITY 

RIYADH: Bahrain’s economy is on track for growth, with gross domestic product expected to expand by 3 percent in 2024 and 3.5 percent in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund. 

The growth, driven by refinery upgrades in the manufacturing sector and a revival in private sector credit, underscores the country’s resilience amid significant economic and geopolitical challenges, the IMF said in a statement. 

Following its 2024 Article IV consultation, the IMF said Bahrain’s strong economic performance in 2023, achieving a 3 percent growth rate despite tight financial conditions and regional geopolitical uncertainty. 

It added that fiscal challenges persist, with the overall deficit widening to 8.5 percent of GDP in 2023, and government debt surging to 123 percent of GDP, a 12 percentage point increase. 

“To put government debt to GDP onto a durable downward path, a multi-year and pre-committed fiscal consolidation and reform package is the policy priority,” said John Bluedorn, the IMF mission chief. 

Looking ahead, the IMF projected that inflation, which fell to a low of 0.1 percent in 2023, will rise to 1.2 percent in 2024 and gradually stabilize at 2 percent over the medium term. 

Non-hydrocarbon GDP is projected to become a cornerstone of Bahrain’s economy, expected to account for 90 percent of total economic activity by 2029. 

This shift is already evident, with growth in Bahrain’s non-oil sectors contributing to a 1.3 percent year-on-year increase, bringing the economy to 3.7 billion dinars ($9.8 billion) in the second quarter of this year, according to the latest report from the Ministry of Finance and National Economy. 

The IMF’s forecast suggested that over the medium term, overall GDP growth will remain around 3 percent, driven largely by this sectoral shift. 

While growth prospects remain positive, the IMF noted that Bahrain’s fiscal health poses a significant challenge. It pointed to the necessity of continuing structural reforms, including raising non-hydrocarbon revenues, cutting unnecessary spending, and rationalizing subsidies. 

The recently introduced domestic minimum top-up tax under the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework is seen as a positive step, but more comprehensive measures are needed. 

“Additional steady fiscal efforts over multiple years, appropriately staggered to smooth the adjustment, remain necessary,” Bluedorn added. 

He stressed the importance of balancing fiscal sustainability with social equity, ensuring that vulnerable groups are protected as Bahrain moves forward with these fiscal adjustments. 

The Central Bank of Bahrain has so far closely followed the policy stance of the US Federal Reserve. The IMF anticipated that the expected easing of global monetary conditions will mitigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on growth. 

The IMF also recommended that the CBB continue developing the local currency bond market and enhancing the role of the non-bank financial sector, while maintaining close supervision of the interconnections between banks and non-banks. 

“Formalizing and implementing a bank resolution framework would build on a tradition of sound financial sector supervision and regulation and help safeguard financial stability,” said Bluedorn. 

Bahrain’s economic diversification efforts are another key focus. The IMF acknowledged progress made but urged further reforms to boost inclusive, sustainable growth. These reforms include expanding programs to enhance human capital, addressing skill gaps, and improving access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises. 

“By raising growth, these measures would also hasten the decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio and ease the fiscal adjustment,” Bluedorn added. 

The fund also stressed the importance of Bahrain’s environmental policies, urging the government to continue investing in renewable energy and gradually reducing energy subsidies. The steps will support Bahrain’s emission reduction goals and help ensure a smooth energy transition. 

The global body welcomed the recent implementation of the National Summary Data Page, which aligns with the IMF’s General Data Dissemination Standards. 

According to the IMF, these improvements in data dissemination will help national decision-makers and stakeholders better monitor Bahrain’s economic and financial progress. 

Topics: Bahrain International Monetary Fund (IMF)

UNHCR official says refugee numbers will surge without urgent climate action

Updated 16 October 2024
Nadia Al Faour
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UNHCR official says refugee numbers will surge without urgent climate action

  • Global Future Councils, Andrew Harper underlines need ‘to turn despondency into hope’
  • Prof. Tolu Oni: ‘Future cities could be transformative if designed to be “cleaner, greener, and fairer”’
Updated 16 October 2024
Nadia Al Faour

DUBAI: The global refugee crisis will continue to escalate unless immediate action is taken to address the effects of climate change, Andrew Harper, special advisor to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, told the Global Future Councils in Dubai on Tuesday.

Highlighting the inextricable link between human security and climate change, Harper said that current data paints a grim picture, making it difficult to remain optimistic about future outcomes.

“There are talks, meetings and conferences but we are still not seeing the change that is required,” Harper said.

“The number of vulnerable people and refugees fleeing conflicts and climate disasters will only increase if no change is implemented. The climate is getting warmer and so we simply must change from rhetoric to action.”

With more than 120 million refugees worldwide, Harper said that accountability must extend not only to the refugees themselves but also to the countries that host them.

“How do you go about empowering people when you’ve got budget cuts in food programs and other organizations? There are no schools, no education on sustainability, we have got to turn despondency into hope.”

Harper called for a focus on “repairing the environment,” adequately funding frontline workers, and building sustainable infrastructure, stressing the importance of including women and youth in decision-making processes to “find long term solutions for our long term problems.”

According to UNHCR, 84 percent of refugees and asylum seekers in 2022 came from highly climate-vulnerable countries, up from 61 percent in 2010.

Only 1 percent of refugees have been able to return home, a challenge expected to grow as climate change continues to worsen conditions in many countries, further deteriorating basic living conditions and hindering opportunities for development in many countries of origin.

The Institute for Economics and Peace predicts that in the worst-case scenario, 1.2 billion people could be displaced by 2050 as a result of natural disasters and other ecological threats.

Speaking on the “Betazone: Green and Fair?” panel, Tolu Oni, clinical professor of global public health and sustainable urban development at the University of Cambridge, said that cities and large urban areas are not immune to the effects of climate change.

She argued that as pressure and reliance on urbanization grow, cities must be central to climate change discussions.

Oni said “50 percent of greenhouse emissions come from cities. Meanwhile, urbanization is happening faster than ever before in history. It cannot be business-as-usual-models anymore. We need to develop new approaches.”

Oni pointed out that future cities could be transformative if designed to be “cleaner, greener, and fairer,” warning that relying on outdated methods would come at a high cost.

“Are we exploring different ways or still consulting the same people but expecting different outcomes?” she said, adding that “the cost of inaction will be high if cities are not built well and will end up bearing the cost later in a different sector, like the health sector.”

Oni stressed the need for better urban planning and financing, emphasizing intersectoral collaboration. She also called for local action and greater public involvement in decision-making.

“We need to democratize knowledge creation and encourage mainstream participation,” she said, noting that real change can come only through collective effort at every level.

Topics: World Economic Forum Dubai Global future councils

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Saudi Arabia, Italy to deepen partnership in multiple fields, including aerospace, security

Updated 16 October 2024
MOHAMMED AL-KINANI
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Saudi Arabia, Italy to deepen partnership in multiple fields, including aerospace, security

  • Visit to Leonardo highlights Kingdom’s dedication to enhancing its aviation industry and harnessing global expertise
  • Saudi minister of industry and mineral resources also took part in the ComoLake 2024 Conference
Updated 16 October 2024
MOHAMMED AL-KINANI

JEDDAH: Saudi-Italian ties in aerospace, defense, and security are set to strengthen as officials from both nations discuss expanding their long-standing partnership in these sectors.

During a meeting held on Oct. 16 in Milan, Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef and Stefano Pontecorvo, chairman of Leonardo, an Italian multinational company specializing in aerospace, defense, and security, discussed localizing the manufacturing of helicopter components in Saudi Arabia, including aircraft structures, propellers, fins, and electronic flight systems.

Leonardo has maintained a significant presence in the Kingdom for over 50 years, offering various platforms, systems, and services. 

The partnership aligns with Saudi Vision 2030, which seeks to cultivate a strong and diversified economy, with its aviation sector expected to contribute SR11.4 billion ($3.04 billion) to the country’s gross domestic product by 2030.

 

 

Alkhorayef’s visit to Leonardo highlights Saudi Arabia’s dedication to enhancing its aviation industry and harnessing global expertise to achieve its economic objectives, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

By localizing helicopter component manufacturing, the Kingdom aims to create jobs, transfer technology, and develop a domestic supply chain for the aviation industry. 

The initiative is part of a broader effort to strengthen the nation’s capabilities in maintenance, repair, and overhaul services and in producing spare parts for engines, drones, and navigation systems.

Alkhorayef, who commenced a three-day visit to Italy on Oct.14, also met Attilio Fontana, president of the Lombardy region of Italy, to explore the possibility of greater industrial cooperation with a focus on the pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and electric vehicles industries.

The two officials underscored the importance of reinforcing ties, particularly in the industrial and mining sectors, by capitalizing on the robust Saudi-Italian relationship and the engagement of the private sector.

Alkhorayef emphasized the diversification objectives of Vision 2030 and outlined investment opportunities in key sectors, highlighting the competitive advantages available to foreign investors, such as advanced infrastructure and supportive government initiatives.

 

 

The Saudi minister also took part in the ComoLake 2024 Conference, which is being held from Oct. 15 to 18 at the International Exhibition and Congress Center of Villa Erba in Cernobbio, on Lake Como.

In a post on his X account following his involvement in the event, Alkhorayef said: “During my participation in the ComoLake Conference in Italy, I emphasized the significant progress the Kingdom has made in its transformational journey within the industrial and mining sectors.”

He added: “This progress, particularly in digital transformation and advanced manufacturing technologies, has opened new horizons for growth and development across various sectors.”

In his speech, the minister said that Saudi Arabia is committed to enhancing global cooperation in the sector and building effective and close partnerships with international industrial organizations to achieve a more balanced and sustainable future.

“The future and advancement of industry worldwide require fruitful international cooperation. Therefore, the Kingdom is keen on partnering with relevant international entities to share knowledge, technology, and expertise to drive innovation, create job opportunities, and build a more sustainable future for all,” he said.

He explained that the country is undergoing an economic transformation journey, with its ambitious plan for 2030, which serves as a roadmap for diversifying sources of national income.

He said that the topics of the ComoLake 2024 align with several objectives of this vision, particularly those related to innovation, sustainability, and global collaboration.

The minister also said that the Kingdom’s National Industrial Strategy includes targets for adopting applications and technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, focusing on integrating artificial intelligence, automation, and data analytics to enhance efficiency, productivity, and sustainability in the industrial sector.

The strategy, he added, also aims to adopt smart manufacturing technologies to develop the Saudi industry and establish new standards for sustainable industrial practices, reported SPA.

He pointed out that artificial intelligence plays a crucial role in automating industrial facilities in Saudi Arabia, transforming them into smart ones.

The minister said that the mining sector is another key pillar of the Kingdom’s economic transformation, adding that Vision 2030 aims for this sector to serve as a source for diversifying the economy’s income, given that the country possesses abundant reserves of critical minerals, such as gold, phosphate, and rare earth elements, which are vital for the energy transition.

Alkhorayef underscored that the country is keen on achieving sustainability in the industrial sector by relying on clean energy solutions and integrating renewable energy sources into industrial operations to meet the Kingdom’s goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2060.

He added that Saudi Arabia seeks to contribute to the global transition toward green industries and establish a more sustainable model for industrial growth.

He concluded by inviting participants at the event to attend the International Mining Conference 2025, which will be held in Riyadh in January. The gathering represents an important opportunity for establishing effective partnerships in the mining sector, exploring the quality opportunities it offers, and discussing the latest innovative technologies in operations, with a focus on sustainability solutions.

This year’s edition of the ComoLake gathering featured 150 speakers from 14 countries, including representatives from governments and industrial institutions worldwide. It is designed to foster discussions on current and future digital policies, serving as a platform for institutions, businesses, and universities to engage with and explore the new paradigms of economic growth in Italy and the Euro-Mediterranean region within a multipolar global context.

Alkhorayef also met with Italian Minister of Enterprises and Made in Italy Adolfo Urso. They discussed ways to enhance industrial cooperation between the two countries and boost bilateral investment particularly in the mining sector, SPA reported.

The ministers also explored strategies to boost Saudi exports to Italy, leveraging the services provided by the Saudi EXIM Bank to support this effort.

Topics: Saudi Arabia Italy main Saudi-Italian ties aerospace Defense Bandar Alkhorayef Leonardo

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Closing Bell: TASI climbs 37.04 points to close at 12,038

Updated 16 October 2024
Nadin Hassan
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Closing Bell: TASI climbs 37.04 points to close at 12,038

Updated 16 October 2024
Nadin Hassan

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index increased on Wednesday, gaining 37.04 points, or 0.31 percent, to close at 12,038.67.

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR7.27 billion ($1.93 billion), with 129 of the listed stocks advancing and 97 declining. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu increased 59.16 points, or 0.23 percent, to close at 25,978.50.

MSCI Tadawul Index also increased by 3.53 points, or 0.23 percent, to reach 1,507.09.

The best-performing stock of the day was Eastern Province Cement Co., whose share price surged 10 percent to SR37.40.  

The second top performer was Abdullah Al Othaim Markets Co., with its share price soaring by 8.51 percent to SR1.50.  

Other top gainers include East Pipes Integrated Co. for Industry and Riyadh Cement Co., as their share prices increased by 6 percent and 5.43 percent to SR166 and SR29.1.

The worst performer was Al-Baha Investment and Development Co., whose share price dropped by 9.37 percent to SR0.29.   

The second poor performer of the day was Alamar Foods Co., which saw its share price decrease by 2.55 percent to SR80.10.

Other worst performers included Almarai Co. and Arab Sea Information System Co., whose share prices shed by 2.55 percent and 2.30 percent, respectively.

On the parallel market Nomu, First Avenue for Real Estate Development Co., was the top gainer, with its share price surging by 30 percent to SR7.80.

The increase came as the firm disclosed its financial results for the first six months of 2024.

The company’s net profit increased by 21.95 percent to SR31 million, up from SR25.4 million in the same period last year.

The firm said in a bourse filing that the increase was due to the rise in profit margin from revenues received from commissions, development for others, and rentals, in addition to the increase in fair value of some investment properties.

Ladun Investment Co. was the major loser on Nomu, as the company’s share price slipped by 6.44 percent to SR3.63.  

Topics: Closing Bell Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) Tadawul All Share Index (TASI)

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Saudi-Egypt trade surges 35.16% in H1 2024 

Updated 17 October 2024
Dayan Abou Tine 
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Saudi-Egypt trade surges 35.16% in H1 2024 

Updated 17 October 2024
Dayan Abou Tine 

RIYADH: Trade between Saudi Arabia and Egypt saw an annual surge of 35.16 percent in the first half of 2024, according to the General Authority of Statistics. 

The increase was driven by a 73.44 percent jump in the Kingdom’s imports from the north African country, totaling $4.18 billion. 

Meanwhile, Saudi exports to Egypt rose 11.38 percent to $4.21 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $30 million. 

Non-oil exports accounted for 27.08 percent of Saudi shipments to Egypt, down slightly from 31.7 percent a year earlier. Plastics and rubber products dominated this category, representing 53 percent of the total. 

On the import side, mineral products made up 64 percent of goods coming into the Kingdom from Egypt, reflecting the trade focus on industrial and raw materials.  

The growing trade relationship between Saudi Arabia and Egypt underscores the strengthening economic ties and broader regional efforts to foster cooperation in a post-oil era. 

During talks in Cairo on Oct. 15, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi agreed to enhance trade and investment cooperation, signing an agreement to promote and protect mutual investments. They also established a supreme coordination council to deepen bilateral collaboration. 

Saudi Arabia is actively pursuing a transformative economic vision aimed at reducing its dependence on oil revenues, a strategy embedded in its Vision 2030 initiative. 

This ambitious plan seeks to diversify the Kingdom’s economy by bolstering non-oil exports and forging stronger trade ties with regional allies, including Egypt. 

Saudi Arabia has made significant strides in enhancing its investment climate, focusing on creating a robust framework that attracts foreign investors. 

As a result, countries such as Egypt have shown increased interest in investing in the Kingdom, recognizing growth potential in sectors such as technology, tourism, and renewable energy. 

In the second quarter of 2024, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Investment issued 789 licenses to Egyptian firms — a 71 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023 — making Egypt the top recipient of investment licenses. 

In an interview with Al-Ekhbariya, Chairman of the Saudi-Egyptian Business Council Bandar Al-Amiri highlighted upcoming projects, including tourism and real estate developments in Egypt worth over $5 billion, alongside various agricultural initiatives and advancements in the nutrition and pharmaceutical sectors. 

He underscored the significance of knowledge exchange to improve food and pharmaceutical production in both countries, addressing the needs of each nation. 

Additionally, Al-Amiri outlined plans to establish Egyptian factories and companies in Saudi Arabia, which, in collaboration with firms in the Kingdom, would enhance and facilitate entry into neighboring markets. 

In a press statement, the chairman said that collaboration between the private sectors of the Kingdom and Egypt has led to agreements for Saudi investments totaling $15 billion in the north African country, with a focus on sectors such as renewable energy and tourism.

The crown prince’s last official visit to Egypt was in 2022, signaling Saudi Arabia’s shift from providing direct financial aid to focusing on investments in its allies.

Topics: Saudi-Egypt ties Saudi economy exports

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