How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

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Updated 31 October 2024
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How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

  • With its electoral college system, staggered results, and early voting options, understanding how the election functions can be daunting
  • To cut through the jargon and complexities of the democratic process, here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day

LONDON: Early voting has already begun in the US to decide who will form the next administration in what many believe is among the most consequential — and hotly contested — elections in a generation.

Almost every poll published over the past week has placed the two main contenders, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, neck and neck in the race for the White House.

Analysts predict the result could come down to just a handful of votes. The outcome could have huge implications not only for domestic policy, but also for the international order.

With extensive media coverage, election jargon, and an overwhelming volume of information, understanding the process can feel daunting. Here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day.

The polls

Polls are often excellent indicators of general voter sentiment. However, recent US elections have shown they are far from foolproof.

In 2016, almost every major polling firm predicted Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump. However, pollsters failed to capture Trump’s unexpected support, leading to a surprise victory that confounded many.

In 2020, polls correctly tipped Joe Biden as the likely winner, but underestimated the actual vote share Trump would receive. In the week before the election, polls gave Biden a seven-point lead, yet Trump managed to close the gap by several points on Election Day.

With most polls indicating a close race on Tuesday, many are wondering whether the pollsters have got it right this time around.

Electoral college

About 244 million Americans are eligible to vote in this year’s election. If the turnout matches 2020’s record 67 percent, about 162 million ballots will be cast across 50 states.




People cast their ballots during early in-person voting on Oct. 30, 2024, in Nashville, Tennessee. (AP)

A recent Arab News-YouGov poll indicated that Arab Americans are likely to vote in record numbers, with more than 80 percent of eligible voters saying they intend to participate — potentially swinging the outcome in several key states.

When voters cast their ballots, they do not vote directly for their preferred presidential candidate. Rather, they vote for a slate of “electors” who formally choose the president — a process known as the electoral college system.

Due to the quirks of this system, the candidate with the most votes nationally may not necessarily win the presidency. This was the case with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Al Gore in 2000, both of whom won the popular vote but lost the election.




Former US Vice President Al Gore (left) won the popular vote in 2000 and so did former US first lady and senator Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election. But both lost the race because their rivals won more electoral votes. (AFP/File photos)l 

The electoral college creates what could be defined as 51 mini elections — one in each state and another for Washington, D.C. In 48 states and D.C., the candidate with the majority vote takes all the electors from that state.

However, Maine and Nebraska have a different system, allocating electors by district, meaning their electoral votes may be split between candidates.

In total, 538 electors are distributed among the states. A candidate must secure at least 270 of these to win the presidency.

In the unlikely case that no candidate has the required 270 electoral college votes, then a contingent election takes place. This means the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the US Congress, votes for the president.

How votes are counted

When the polls close on election day, the count begins. In most cases, in-person votes are counted first, followed by early and mail-in ballots.

Results from smaller or less contested states often come in early, while larger, key battleground states like Pennsylvania or Georgia may take hours — or days — to finalize due to stringent verification steps, including signature checks and ballot preparation for electronic scanning.




Jessica Garofolo (L), administrative services director for Allegheny County, demonstrates how the high-speed ballot scanner for mail-in ballots works during a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

States like Florida, where mail-in ballots are processed in advance, may report results relatively quickly. Other states, particularly those with late processing times for absentee ballots, might not finalize their tallies until days later.

State and local poll officials collect, verify, and certify the popular vote in each jurisdiction, following procedures for accuracy before final certification by governors and designated officials.

In response to unprecedented threats in 2020, many polling stations have now installed panic buttons, bulletproof glass and armed security to ensure safety across the more than 90,000 polling sites nationwide.




This combination image shows smoke pouring out of a ballot box on Oct. 28, 2024, in Vancouver, Washington (left) and a damaged ballot drop box displayed at the Multnomah County Elections Division office on Oct. 28, 2024, in Portland, Oregon. (KGW8 via AP/AP)

Mail-in and early votes

Although election day is held on the first Tuesday after Nov. 1, many Americans vote early. Early voting allows citizens to cast ballots in person, while others opt for mail-in ballots.

This year, early and mail-in voting are once again expected to play a crucial role, with millions of ballots already cast. President Biden voted early on Monday in his home state of Delaware.




US President Joe Biden casts his early-voting ballot in the 2024 general election in New Castle, Delaware, on October 28, 2024. (AFP)

States vary in how they handle mail-in ballots, with some processing them before election day and others waiting until polls close. In closely contested states, the volume of mail-in ballots could be a decisive factor, potentially delaying results.

Voting by mail has grown in popularity. According to ABC News, as of Tuesday, more than 25.6 million Americans have already returned mail ballots, and more than 65 million — including military personnel serving overseas — have requested absentee ballots.

In 2020, a comparable number voted by mail, though the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased reliance on this option.




A voter casts her ballot during the early voting period on October 29, 2024 in the city of Dearborn in  Michigan state. (Getty Images via AFP)

Despite its growing popularity, the mail-in voting system has faced accusations of fraud. During the last election, authorities and the postal service were strained by millions of extra ballots.

At the time, Trump said that mail-in voting was a “disaster” and “a whole big scam,” claiming that the Democrats had exploited the system to “steal” the election. The Democrats claim those allegations contributed to the Capitol Hill attack of Jan. 6, 2021.

This election cycle, some states, including Michigan and Nevada, have passed laws permitting early counting of mail-in ballots, which should lead to faster results. However, most states’ absentee voting policies have seen minimal changes, leaving tensions high.

Authorities are closely monitoring the process. In a sign of just how tense the situation has become, officials announced on Tuesday that they were searching for suspects after hundreds of votes deposited in two ballot drop boxes in the Pacific Northwest were destroyed by fire.

When will a winner be declared?

Indiana and Kentucky will be the first states to close their polls at 6 pm ET, followed by seven more states an hour later, including the battleground state of Georgia, which in 2020 voted for Biden. North Carolina, another critical swing state which picked Trump last time around, closes at 7:30 pm ET.




Supporters of US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris cheer during a Get Out the Vote rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

By around 8 p.m. ET, many states will have reported results, most of which are expected to follow traditional patterns. However, early results in solid Republican states like South Carolina could hint at trends in neighboring battlegrounds like Georgia.

By 9 p.m. ET, polls in key swing states such as Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan close, with results trickling in soon after. By midnight ET, most of the nation will have reported, with Hawaii and Alaska closing shortly after, likely providing a clearer picture.

Pennsylvania, which is seen as a bellwether of the overall election outcome, aims to announce its results by early morning on Nov. 6.

The timing of a winner declaration ultimately depends on how close the race is in these key states. If one candidate establishes a clear lead in pivotal swing states early, a winner could be projected by major networks, as Fox News controversially did in 2020, calling Arizona for Biden hours ahead of other broadcasters.




Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances as he leaves a campaign rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

If the race remains tight in crucial states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Michigan — all won by Biden last time around — the results may be delayed, possibly into the next day or later.

In 2020, it took four days to project Biden’s win due to a high volume of mail-in ballots. Experts caution that similarly close results this year could lead to a comparable delay.

Possible controversy

As in previous years, the outcome of the election will likely be contested. Delays in ballot counting, especially from mail-in votes, could fuel disputes in states where margins are tight.




Mail-in ballots are secured inside a cage before election day, as officials host a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

Both parties have prepared legal teams to challenge issues surrounding ballot validity, recounts, or other contested results.

Concerns over voter intimidation, misinformation and unsubstantiated allegations of fraud may further stoke tensions, despite the rigorous safeguards put in place.

In its latest assessment, the International Crisis Group noted that while conditions differ from 2020, political divisions remain sharp and risks of unrest remain high, especially if results are contested or take days to finalize.

As the world watches Tuesday’s election closely, there is widespread hope for a fair and peaceful process, marking a fitting conclusion to this tense political season.
 

 


’Everything was stopped’: USAID cuts hit hard in northern Kenya

Updated 7 sec ago
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’Everything was stopped’: USAID cuts hit hard in northern Kenya

LODWAR: In Kenya’s largest and poorest county, the despair of a beleaguered hospital director is palpable as he explains that the dismantling of American-funded aid means his facility will run out of USAID drugs next month.
“From then on, I don’t know,” Ekiru Kidalio said, worried about the lack of treatment for measles and HIV among other things.
Northernmost Turkana county borders Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda and is home to just under a million people, according to a 2019 census, a third of them refugees, many dependent on foreign assistance.
President Donald Trump’s administration has announced dramatic cuts to USAID whose annual budget was close to $43 billion, more than 40 percent of the world’s humanitarian aid.
The decisions, taken thousands of kilometers (miles) away in Washington, are already being felt in Turkana’s Lodwar County Referral Hospital, Kidalio, its acting director, said.
USAID employed 64 staff, including nurses and clinical officers, out of around 400 employees at the hospital.
“All those workers were laid off,” he said.
“Everything was stopped... and then the commodities (drugs) were not received,” Kidalio added, voicing particular concern over shortages of measles vaccines.
Kidalio said he was “not aware” of any plans by the Kenyan government to tackle the shortfall.
The local governor publicly urged the restoration of USAID-funded programs when US charge d’affaires Marc Dillard visited last week.
The destabilising shift has also created a lot of concern in the dusty town, dominated by UN-emblazoned white landcruisers and signs urging an end to gender-based violence or promoting aid groups.
“There is a lot of worry because the US has ended their support,” resident Lydia Muya, 32, told AFP.
The mother-of-three said residents — in a region where roughly 77 percent of the population live below the poverty line, according to 2021 government statistics — were particularly concerned about their access to medication.
“We see that is now a very big risk to us, because we depend on those medicines, so most of the people will suffer,” said Muya.
“It is difficult.”


The picture is increasingly grim in Kakuma refugee camp, which hosts more than 300,000 people mostly from South Sudan, Somalia, Burundi and Rwanda.
Protests broke out last month after news that rations, already lowered last year, would be further reduced because of the cuts to US foreign aid spending.
“It was tense,” said one humanitarian worker, based in Kakuma for almost five years, who spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not permitted to speak to the media.
When asked if supplies were arriving, his response was blunt: “No. With what money? No funding, no stuff.
“It’s operating on hand-to-mouth basis on this point.”
He estimated as much as 40 percent of the workforce had already been laid off as a result of the US cuts.
The situation could still worsen.
The World Food Programme (WFP), which supports just under 200,000 Kakuma refugees, told AFP they had cut rations, delivered as food and cash, to 40 percent of their previous level.
A mother-of-four, who had lived in the camp for almost two decades, told AFP she was worried.
“How many days will I eat? The food can end so fast,” she said, asking to remain anonymous as she was unsure if she was allowed to speak to journalists.
She is also worried about the coming rainy season when malaria cases soar.
“If you go now to the hospital there is no medicine, they just check you,” she said.
“Trump has stopped everything, and it’s closed now, there is nothing coming in and nothing coming out.”


Aid workers privately say that the situation is not just down to the US cuts and point to a lack of planning by NGOs.
“The camp has been managed as an emergency, so they were not preparing people” to become less dependent on aid, a second aid worker in Kakuma told AFP by telephone.
“If refugees were treated like people not in an emergency set-up anymore... these fund (shortfalls) could not affect them,” he said, suggesting more should have been done on longer-term programs.
The first aid worker also voiced his frustration, saying budgets were eaten up by operational costs such as staffing overheads, transport and bureaucracy.
“The aid, the majority of it goes to the operational bit of it, not the actual work,” he said. “It’s madness.”
Like other aid workers, he worries their program sometimes creates dependency without offering a future.
“As a person who has worked in multiple areas, sometimes you wonder if you are really helping or if you are enabling,” he said.

South Sudan cholera patients died walking to clinic after US cut aid, charity says

Updated 09 April 2025
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South Sudan cholera patients died walking to clinic after US cut aid, charity says

NAIROBI: Eight people in South Sudan, including five children, died on a three-hour walk to seek medical treatment for cholera after US aid cuts forced local health services to close, the UK-based charity Save the Children said on Wednesday.
The deaths last month are among the first to be directly attributed to cuts imposed by US President Donald Trump after entering office on January 20, which he said were to ensure grants were aligned with his “America First” agenda.
“There should be global moral outrage that the decisions made by powerful people in other countries have led to child deaths in just a matter of weeks,” said Christopher Nyamandi, Save the Children’s country director in South Sudan.
Experts have warned that the cuts — including the cancelation of more than 90 percent of USAID’s contracts — could cost millions of lives in the coming years due to malnutrition, AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and other diseases.
The US State Department said it did not have information about the deaths reported by Save the Children. A spokesperson said many US government programs providing lifesaving aid in South Sudan remained active but that support for medical services had also been used to enrich the country’s leaders.
“While emergency lifesaving programs continue, we will not, in good conscience, ask the American taxpayer to provide assistance that effectively subsidises the irresponsible and corrupt behavior of South Sudan’s political leaders,” the spokesperson said.
South Sudan’s government has in the past acknowledged a significant amount of public corruption but denied specific accusations of graft, including against President Salva Kiir’s family.
Humanitarian aid to the country is often channelled through non-governmental organizations, largely because of corruption concerns.
Save the Children supported 27 health facilities in eastern South Sudan’s Jonglei State until earlier this year when the US cuts forced seven to shut completely and 20 to close partially, the organization said in a statement.
US funded transport services to take people to hospital in the main local town also stopped for lack of funds, which meant the eight cholera patients had to walk in nearly 40°C (104°F) heat to seek treatment at the nearest health facility, it said.
Three of the children were under the age of 5, Nyamandi said.
Besides the US cuts, more gradual reductions by other donors have strained the humanitarian response in South Sudan. Save the Children expects to spend $30 million in the country in 2025, down from $50 million last year, Nyamandi said.
Over a third of South Sudan’s roughly 12 million people have been displaced by either conflict or natural disaster, and the United Nations says the country could be on the brink of a new civil war after fighting broke out in February in the northeast.
A cholera outbreak was declared last October. More than 22,000 cases had been recorded as of last month, causing hundreds of deaths, the World Health Organization has said.


At least 79 dead in Dominican Republic nightclub roof collapse

Updated 09 April 2025
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At least 79 dead in Dominican Republic nightclub roof collapse

  • Renowned Dominican merengue singer Rubby Perez was one of those killed in the disaster
  • More than 370 rescue personnel combed mounds of fallen bricks, steel bars and tin sheets for survivors

SANTO DOMINGO: Rescuers raced to find survivors Tuesday among the rubble of a Dominican Republic nightclub where at least 79 people, including a prominent merengue performer and a former Major League Baseball star, were killed when the roof collapsed.
Renowned Dominican merengue singer Rubby Perez, who was on stage at the popular Jet Set nightclub when the roof caved in shortly after midnight, was one of those killed in the disaster, according to his manager.
“We are waiting for the children to reach an agreement for the funeral,” Perez’s manager Enrique Paulino said, confirming his death.
More than 370 rescue personnel combed mounds of fallen bricks, steel bars and tin sheets for survivors.
Also among the dead was 51-year-old retired MLB pitcher Octavio Dotel, who won a World Series in 2011 with the St. Louis Cardinals.
He was rescued alive but died of his injuries while being taken to hospital, local media reported.
A black-and-white photo of the player and images of the Dominican flag were projected onto the scoreboard at Citi Field in New York before Tuesday’s game between the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins.
“Peace to his soul,” the Dominican Republic Professional Baseball League wrote on social media.
Local media said there were between 500 and 1,000 people in the club when disaster struck shortly at 12:44 a.m. local time (4:44 GMT). The club has capacity for 700 people seated and about 1,000 people standing.
Dozens of ambulances ferried the injured to hospital, as scores of people gathered outside the venue desperately seeking news of their loved ones.
Perez was on stage when there was a blackout and the roof came crashing down, according to eyewitness reports.
Perez’s daughter Zulinka told reporters she had managed to escape after the roof collapsed, but he did not.
Also among the dead was the governor of the Monte Cristi municipality, Nelsy Cruz, according to President Luis Abinader.
The death toll started at 15 and kept rising throughout the day. By evening it had reached 79.
“As long as there is hope for life, all authorities will be working to recover or rescue these people,” said Juan Manuel Mendez, director of the Emergency Operations Center.
President Abinader visited the scene and declared three days of national mourning.
Iris Pena, a woman who had attended the show, told SIN television how she escaped with her son.
“At one point, dirt started falling like dust into the drink on the table,” she said.
“A stone fell and cracked the table where we were, and we got out,” Pena recounted. “The impact was so strong, as if it had been a tsunami or an earthquake.”
Dozens of family members flocked to hospitals for news.
“We are desperate,” Regina del Rosa, whose sister was at the concert, told SIN. “They are not giving us news, they are not telling us anything.”
Helicopter images revealed a large hole where the club’s roof once was. A crane was helping lift some of the heavier rubble as men in hard hats dug through the debris.
Authorities have issued a call for Dominicans to donate blood.
The Instagram page of the Jet Set club said it has been in operation for more than 50 years, with shows every Monday until the early hours.
Its last post before Monday’s event invited fans to come and “enjoy his (Perez’s) greatest hits and dance in the country’s best nightclub.”
On Tuesday, the club issued a statement saying it was working “fully and transparently” with authorities.
The Dominican Republic, which shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti, received over 11 million visitors in 2024, according to the tourism ministry.
Tourism generates about 15 percent of GDP, with visitors attracted by its Caribbean beaches, music and nightlife, as well as the colonial architecture of Santo Domingo.


US freezes funding for Cornell, Northwestern University in latest crackdown

Updated 09 April 2025
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US freezes funding for Cornell, Northwestern University in latest crackdown

  • Human rights advocates have raised free speech and academic freedom concerns over the crackdown by the Trump administration
  • The administration of US President Donald Trump has threatened to block federal funding for schools over pro-Palestinian campus protests as well as other issues such as diversity, equity and inclusion programs and transgender policies

WASHINGTON: The Trump administration has frozen over $1 billion in funding for Cornell University and $790 million for Northwestern University while it investigates both schools over civil rights violations, a US official said on Tuesday.
The funding being paused includes mostly grants and contracts with the federal departments of health, education, agriculture and defense, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The administration of US President Donald Trump has threatened to block federal funding for schools over pro-Palestinian campus protests as well as other issues such as diversity, equity and inclusion programs and transgender policies.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Trump has threatened to freeze funding over pro-Palestinian protests, DEI, transgender policies

• Cornell and Northwestern among 60 schools being probed by US over alleged antisemitism

• Rights advocates raise free speech and academic freedom concerns

Last month, it sent a letter to 60 universities, including Cornell and Northwestern, that it could bring enforcement actions if a review determined the schools had failed to stop what it called antisemitism.
Northwestern said it was aware of media reports about the funding freeze but had not received any official notification from the government and that it has cooperated in the investigation.
“Federal funds that Northwestern receives drive innovative and life-saving research, like the recent development by Northwestern researchers of the world’s smallest pacemaker, and research fueling the fight against Alzheimer’s disease. This type of research is now in jeopardy,” a Northwestern spokesperson said.
Cornell did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In an opinion piece in the New York Times last week, Cornell President Michael Kotlikoff said his university was not afraid to let people argue, including over issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Trump has attempted to crack down on pro-Palestinian campus protests against US ally Israel’s devastating military assault on Gaza, which has caused a humanitarian crisis in the enclave and followed a deadly October 2023 attack by Islamist group Hamas.
The US president has called the protesters antisemitic, and has labeled them as sympathetic to Hamas militants and as foreign policy threats.
Protesters, including some Jewish groups, say the Trump administration wrongly conflates their criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza and advocacy for Palestinian rights with antisemitism and support for Hamas.

TRUMP CRACKDOWN ON SCHOOLS
Human rights advocates have raised free speech and academic freedom concerns over the crackdown by the Trump administration.
Last week, the US government announced a review of $9 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard University and has since listed conditions it must meet to receive federal money. Princeton University also said last week the government froze dozens of research grants.
Last month, the Trump administration canceled $400 million in funding for Columbia University, the epicenter of last year’s pro-Palestinian campus protests.
Columbia agreed to some significant changes that Trump’s administration demanded for talks about restoring the funding.
Federal agents have also detained some foreign student protesters in recent weeks from different campuses and are working to deport them. And the government has revoked visas of many foreign students.
Rights advocates have also raised concerns about Islamophobia and anti-Arab bias during the Israel-Gaza war. The Trump administration has not announced steps in response.
In March, the Trump administration suspended $175 million in funding to the University of Pennsylvania over its transgender sports policies.

 


Government given one day to produce evidence for deporting Columbia University protester Khalil

Updated 09 April 2025
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Government given one day to produce evidence for deporting Columbia University protester Khalil

  • President Donald Trump’s administration says it has revoked Khalil’s status as a lawful permanent resident under a 1952 law allowing the deportation of any immigrant whose presence in the country the secretary of state deems harmful to US foreign policy

JENA, Louisiana: A month after Columbia University student Mahmoud Khalil was picked up by immigration agents in New York and transferred 1,200 miles to a detention center in rural Louisiana, an immigration judge on Tuesday gave the government a day to provide evidence he should be deported and said she would rule on that question on Friday.
“If he’s not removable I’m going to be terminating this case on Friday,” Assistant Chief Immigration Judge Jamee Comans said during a hearing at the LaSalle Immigration Court in Jena, Louisiana. Khalil was in the courtroom at a table where he could see his attorney Marc Van Der Hout, appearing remotely from California, on a nearby screen.
Department of Homeland Security lawyers told Comans they would provide the evidence by her 5 p.m. Wednesday deadline.

HIGHLIGHGTS

• Khalil's case tests Trump's efforts to deport student activists

• Trump administration revokes Khalil's residency under 1952 law

• Khalil's lawyers argue arrest violates First Amendment rights

President Donald Trump’s administration says it has revoked Khalil’s status as a lawful permanent resident under a 1952 law allowing the deportation of any immigrant whose presence in the country the secretary of state deems harmful to US foreign policy.
The US government also has said the pro-Palestinian demonstrator should be forced from the country because he withheld that he worked for a United Nations Palestinian relief agency in his visa application, and also left off the application that he worked for the Syria office in the British embassy in Beirut and that he was a member of the group Columbia University Apartheid Divest.
During Tuesday’s hearing, Comans read the government’s allegations, and Van Der Hout responded with “deny” to each.
The immigration case is separate from a challenge to the legality of his March arrest, known as a habeas corpus petition. A different judge hearing Khalil’s habeas petition has ruled that he must remain in the United States for now.
Since Khalil’s arrest Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said he has revoked the visas of hundreds of foreign students. The Trump administration says college protests against US military support for Israel have included harassment of Jewish students.
Student protest organizers, including some Jewish groups, say criticism of Israel is being wrongly conflated with antisemitism.
Khalil, a Palestinian born in a refugee camp in Syria, has called himself a political prisoner. His lawyers have argued the Trump administration improperly targeted him for his political views in violation of his right to free speech guaranteed by the US Constitution’s First Amendment.
Khalil’s wife, US citizen Noor Abdalla, is due to give birth to their first child “imminently,” Khalil’s lawyers said in a court filing on Friday. She has not been able to travel to Louisiana to visit him due to her pregnancy. She watched on Tuesday via a court video link.