How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

Short Url
Updated 31 October 2024
Follow

How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

  • With its electoral college system, staggered results, and early voting options, understanding how the election functions can be daunting
  • To cut through the jargon and complexities of the democratic process, here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day

LONDON: Early voting has already begun in the US to decide who will form the next administration in what many believe is among the most consequential — and hotly contested — elections in a generation.

Almost every poll published over the past week has placed the two main contenders, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, neck and neck in the race for the White House.

Analysts predict the result could come down to just a handful of votes. The outcome could have huge implications not only for domestic policy, but also for the international order.

With extensive media coverage, election jargon, and an overwhelming volume of information, understanding the process can feel daunting. Here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day.

The polls

Polls are often excellent indicators of general voter sentiment. However, recent US elections have shown they are far from foolproof.

In 2016, almost every major polling firm predicted Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump. However, pollsters failed to capture Trump’s unexpected support, leading to a surprise victory that confounded many.

In 2020, polls correctly tipped Joe Biden as the likely winner, but underestimated the actual vote share Trump would receive. In the week before the election, polls gave Biden a seven-point lead, yet Trump managed to close the gap by several points on Election Day.

With most polls indicating a close race on Tuesday, many are wondering whether the pollsters have got it right this time around.

Electoral college

About 244 million Americans are eligible to vote in this year’s election. If the turnout matches 2020’s record 67 percent, about 162 million ballots will be cast across 50 states.




People cast their ballots during early in-person voting on Oct. 30, 2024, in Nashville, Tennessee. (AP)

A recent Arab News-YouGov poll indicated that Arab Americans are likely to vote in record numbers, with more than 80 percent of eligible voters saying they intend to participate — potentially swinging the outcome in several key states.

When voters cast their ballots, they do not vote directly for their preferred presidential candidate. Rather, they vote for a slate of “electors” who formally choose the president — a process known as the electoral college system.

Due to the quirks of this system, the candidate with the most votes nationally may not necessarily win the presidency. This was the case with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Al Gore in 2000, both of whom won the popular vote but lost the election.




Former US Vice President Al Gore (left) won the popular vote in 2000 and so did former US first lady and senator Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election. But both lost the race because their rivals won more electoral votes. (AFP/File photos)l 

The electoral college creates what could be defined as 51 mini elections — one in each state and another for Washington, D.C. In 48 states and D.C., the candidate with the majority vote takes all the electors from that state.

However, Maine and Nebraska have a different system, allocating electors by district, meaning their electoral votes may be split between candidates.

In total, 538 electors are distributed among the states. A candidate must secure at least 270 of these to win the presidency.

In the unlikely case that no candidate has the required 270 electoral college votes, then a contingent election takes place. This means the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the US Congress, votes for the president.

How votes are counted

When the polls close on election day, the count begins. In most cases, in-person votes are counted first, followed by early and mail-in ballots.

Results from smaller or less contested states often come in early, while larger, key battleground states like Pennsylvania or Georgia may take hours — or days — to finalize due to stringent verification steps, including signature checks and ballot preparation for electronic scanning.




Jessica Garofolo (L), administrative services director for Allegheny County, demonstrates how the high-speed ballot scanner for mail-in ballots works during a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

States like Florida, where mail-in ballots are processed in advance, may report results relatively quickly. Other states, particularly those with late processing times for absentee ballots, might not finalize their tallies until days later.

State and local poll officials collect, verify, and certify the popular vote in each jurisdiction, following procedures for accuracy before final certification by governors and designated officials.

In response to unprecedented threats in 2020, many polling stations have now installed panic buttons, bulletproof glass and armed security to ensure safety across the more than 90,000 polling sites nationwide.




This combination image shows smoke pouring out of a ballot box on Oct. 28, 2024, in Vancouver, Washington (left) and a damaged ballot drop box displayed at the Multnomah County Elections Division office on Oct. 28, 2024, in Portland, Oregon. (KGW8 via AP/AP)

Mail-in and early votes

Although election day is held on the first Tuesday after Nov. 1, many Americans vote early. Early voting allows citizens to cast ballots in person, while others opt for mail-in ballots.

This year, early and mail-in voting are once again expected to play a crucial role, with millions of ballots already cast. President Biden voted early on Monday in his home state of Delaware.




US President Joe Biden casts his early-voting ballot in the 2024 general election in New Castle, Delaware, on October 28, 2024. (AFP)

States vary in how they handle mail-in ballots, with some processing them before election day and others waiting until polls close. In closely contested states, the volume of mail-in ballots could be a decisive factor, potentially delaying results.

Voting by mail has grown in popularity. According to ABC News, as of Tuesday, more than 25.6 million Americans have already returned mail ballots, and more than 65 million — including military personnel serving overseas — have requested absentee ballots.

In 2020, a comparable number voted by mail, though the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased reliance on this option.




A voter casts her ballot during the early voting period on October 29, 2024 in the city of Dearborn in  Michigan state. (Getty Images via AFP)

Despite its growing popularity, the mail-in voting system has faced accusations of fraud. During the last election, authorities and the postal service were strained by millions of extra ballots.

At the time, Trump said that mail-in voting was a “disaster” and “a whole big scam,” claiming that the Democrats had exploited the system to “steal” the election. The Democrats claim those allegations contributed to the Capitol Hill attack of Jan. 6, 2021.

This election cycle, some states, including Michigan and Nevada, have passed laws permitting early counting of mail-in ballots, which should lead to faster results. However, most states’ absentee voting policies have seen minimal changes, leaving tensions high.

Authorities are closely monitoring the process. In a sign of just how tense the situation has become, officials announced on Tuesday that they were searching for suspects after hundreds of votes deposited in two ballot drop boxes in the Pacific Northwest were destroyed by fire.

When will a winner be declared?

Indiana and Kentucky will be the first states to close their polls at 6 pm ET, followed by seven more states an hour later, including the battleground state of Georgia, which in 2020 voted for Biden. North Carolina, another critical swing state which picked Trump last time around, closes at 7:30 pm ET.




Supporters of US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris cheer during a Get Out the Vote rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

By around 8 p.m. ET, many states will have reported results, most of which are expected to follow traditional patterns. However, early results in solid Republican states like South Carolina could hint at trends in neighboring battlegrounds like Georgia.

By 9 p.m. ET, polls in key swing states such as Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan close, with results trickling in soon after. By midnight ET, most of the nation will have reported, with Hawaii and Alaska closing shortly after, likely providing a clearer picture.

Pennsylvania, which is seen as a bellwether of the overall election outcome, aims to announce its results by early morning on Nov. 6.

The timing of a winner declaration ultimately depends on how close the race is in these key states. If one candidate establishes a clear lead in pivotal swing states early, a winner could be projected by major networks, as Fox News controversially did in 2020, calling Arizona for Biden hours ahead of other broadcasters.




Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances as he leaves a campaign rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

If the race remains tight in crucial states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Michigan — all won by Biden last time around — the results may be delayed, possibly into the next day or later.

In 2020, it took four days to project Biden’s win due to a high volume of mail-in ballots. Experts caution that similarly close results this year could lead to a comparable delay.

Possible controversy

As in previous years, the outcome of the election will likely be contested. Delays in ballot counting, especially from mail-in votes, could fuel disputes in states where margins are tight.




Mail-in ballots are secured inside a cage before election day, as officials host a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

Both parties have prepared legal teams to challenge issues surrounding ballot validity, recounts, or other contested results.

Concerns over voter intimidation, misinformation and unsubstantiated allegations of fraud may further stoke tensions, despite the rigorous safeguards put in place.

In its latest assessment, the International Crisis Group noted that while conditions differ from 2020, political divisions remain sharp and risks of unrest remain high, especially if results are contested or take days to finalize.

As the world watches Tuesday’s election closely, there is widespread hope for a fair and peaceful process, marking a fitting conclusion to this tense political season.
 

 


Rescuers scour buildings after Air India plane crash kills over 240

Updated 14 sec ago
Follow

Rescuers scour buildings after Air India plane crash kills over 240

  • Only one passenger survived after the plane crashed onto a medical college hostel during lunch hour
  • Parts of the plane’s fuselage were scattered around the smoldering building into which it crashed
AHMEDABAD, India: Rescuers searched for missing people and aircraft debris in charred buildings in Ahmedabad on Friday after more than 240 people were killed in an Air India Boeing 787 crash, and as local media reported that India was considering grounding the airline’s 787 fleet for safety checks.
The Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner with 242 people on board bound for Gatwick Airport south of London took off over a residential area and disappeared from view before a huge fireball was seen rising into the sky from beyond the houses, CCTV footage showed.
Only one passenger survived after the plane crashed onto a medical college hostel during lunch hour, with local media reporting as many as 24 people on the ground were also killed. Reuters could not immediately verify the number.
Rescue workers had completed combing the crash site and were now searching for missing people and bodies in the buildings as well as for aircraft parts that could help explain why the plane crashed soon after taking off.
Local media reported that one of two black boxes from the 787 had been found. Reuters could not verify the reports, which also did not say whether it was the flight data recorder or the cockpit voice recorder that had been recovered.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was briefed by officials on the progress of rescue operations when he visited the crash site in his home state of Gujarat on Friday. Modi also met some of the injured being treated in hospital.
“The scene of devastation is saddening,” he said in a post on X.
Residents living in the vicinity said that construction of the hostel for resident doctors was completed only a year ago and the buildings were not fully occupied.
“We were at home and heard a massive sound, it appeared like a big blast. We then saw very dark smoke which engulfed the entire area,” said 63-year-old Nitin Joshi, who has been living in the area for more than 50 years.
Parts of the plane’s fuselage were scattered around the smoldering building into which it crashed. The tail of the plane was wedged on top of the building.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing unnamed sources, that an investigation into the crash was focusing on “whether the aircraft had a loss or reduction in engine thrust.”
India’s NDTV reported that New Delhi was considering grounding Air India’s Dreamliner fleet for safety checks. Air India has more than 30 Dreamliners that include the Boeing 787-8 and 787-9 versions.
Modern, wide-body jet
It was the first crash for the Dreamliner since the wide-body jet began flying commercially in 2011, according to the Aviation Safety Network database.
The plane that crashed on Thursday flew for the first time in 2013 and was delivered to Air India in January 2014, Flightradar24 said.
Air India, Boeing and India’s Ministry of Civil Aviation ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the NDTV report on the possible grounding of the fleet.
The lone survivor, a British national, told Indian media how he had heard a loud noise shortly after Flight AI171 took off.
India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said he is in touch with foreign ministers of Britain, Portugal and Canada after citizens from their countries were killed in the crash.
Global leaders have expressed their condolences, including China’s President Xi Jinping who sent his message to India’s president, prime minister and Britain’s King Charles on Friday.
The passengers included 169 Indian nationals, 53 Britons, seven Portuguese and one Canadian.
Air India has said the investigation would take time. Planemaker Boeing has said a team of experts is ready to go to India to help in the probe.
Vidhi Chaudhary, a top state police officer, said on Thursday the death toll was more than 240, revising down a previous toll of 294 because it included body parts that had been counted twice.
“Almost 70 percent of the passengers were found in their seats, most of them had their seatbelts on,” a first responder told local newspaper Indian Express.
The last fatal plane crash in India, the world’s third-largest aviation market and its fastest-growing, was in 2020 and involved Air India Express, the airline’s low-cost arm.
In an unrelated incident, an Air India flight from Phuket in Thailand headed to Delhi made an emergency landing on Friday after a bomb threat was received on board, airport authorities said.
Indian conglomerate Tata Group took control of the formerly state-owned Air India in 2022, and merged it with Vistara — a joint venture between the group and Singapore Airlines – last year.

Air India flight makes emergency landing in Thailand after bomb threat; all passengers off plane

Updated 19 min 47 sec ago
Follow

Air India flight makes emergency landing in Thailand after bomb threat; all passengers off plane

  • Indian airlines, airports received nearly 1,000 hoax calls and messages in first 10 months of 2024
  • Incident follows Air India flight crash in Ahmedabad on Thursday, which killed over 240 people

BANGKOK: An Air India flight from Phuket in Thailand to India’s capital New Delhi received an onboard bomb threat on Friday and made an emergency landing on the island, airport authorities said.

All 156 passengers on flight AI 379 had been escorted from the plane, in line with emergency plans, an Airports of Thailand official said.

The aircraft took off from Phuket airport bound for the Indian capital at 9.30 a.m. (0230 GMT) on Friday, but made a wide loop around the Andaman Sea and landed back on the southern Thai island, according to flight tracker Flightradar24.

The incident follows the crash of an Air India flight in Ahmedabad on Thursday shortly after takeoff, in which more than 240 people were killed.

AOT did not provide details on the bomb threat. Air India did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Indian airlines and airports were inundated with hoax bomb threats last year, with nearly 1,000 hoax calls and messages received in the first 10 months, nearly 10 times that of 2023.


Mexican citizen dies in US immigration detention center

Updated 13 June 2025
Follow

Mexican citizen dies in US immigration detention center

  • The man died on June 7 at an ICE facility in the southern state of Georgia
  • US authorities notified the Mexican consulate in Georgia’s capital Atlanta of the death

MEXICO CITY: A Mexican citizen died in a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention center from undetermined circumstances, Mexico’s foreign ministry has said.

The death comes amid ongoing demonstrations in several US states, most prominently in California, against immigration enforcement raids launched by US President Donald Trump’s administration.

The man died on June 7 at an ICE facility in the southern state of Georgia, where he was being held after he was transferred from a state prison, the foreign ministry said in a statement Thursday.

US authorities notified the Mexican consulate in Georgia’s capital Atlanta of the death.

“Consular staff has established communication with local and ICE authorities, as well as with the individual’s family members, to clarify the facts, confirm the official cause of death, and provide legal advice and support to the family,” the ministry said.

Mexico’s foreign ministry said consular staff had not been notified to interview the detainee while he was in custody, despite regular visits to the facility to assist Mexican nationals.

“The consulate has requested an explanation from the (detention) center’s authorities,” the ministry said.

It also said it was examining legal options and maintaining communication with the Georgia Bureau of Investigation, the state’s independent investigative body.


Japan ‘strongly condemns’ Israel’s attack on Iran

Updated 13 June 2025
Follow

Japan ‘strongly condemns’ Israel’s attack on Iran

TOKYO: Japan has joined in the condemnation of Israel’s attack on Iran with Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya saying the attack “escalates the situation” in the Middle East, Japan’s Foreign Ministry reported.

“We deeply regret that military force was used despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, including talks between the US and Iran, to achieve a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue,” Iwaya said. “Our country strongly condemns this action, which escalates the situation.”

Iwaya emphasized that peace and stability in the Middle East are “extremely important” to Japan and urged all parties involved to exercise maximum restraint.

He called for de-escalation of the situation, adding that the Japanese government will spare no effort to protect Japanese nationals residing in the region.

“We will continue to take all necessary measures to prevent further deterioration of the situation,” he said.

• This article also appears on Arab News Japan


Pakistan, other nuclear states together spent $100 billion on weapons in 2024 — report

Updated 13 June 2025
Follow

Pakistan, other nuclear states together spent $100 billion on weapons in 2024 — report

  • US spent $56.8 billion in 2024, followed by China at $12.5 billion, says International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons
  • ICAN says level of nuclear weapons spending in 2024 by these nine nations could have paid UN budget almost 28 times over

GENEVA: Nuclear-armed states spent more than $100 billion on their atomic arsenals last year, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons said Friday, lamenting the lack of democratic oversight of such spending.

ICAN said Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia and the United States together spent nearly $10 billion more than in 2023.

The United States spent $56.8 billion in 2024, followed by China at $12.5 billion and Britain at $10.4 billion, ICAN said in its flagship annual report.

Geneva-based ICAN won the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize for its key role in drafting the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which took effect in 2021.

Some 69 countries have ratified it to date, four more have directly acceded to the treaty and another 25 have signed it, although none of the nuclear weapons states have come on board.

This year’s report looked at the costs incurred by the countries that host other states’ nuclear weapons.

It said such costs are largely unknown to citizens and legislators alike, thereby avoiding democratic scrutiny.

Although not officially confirmed, the report said Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkiye were hosting US nuclear weapons, citing experts.

Meanwhile Russia claims it has nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus, but some experts are unsure, it added.

The report said there was “little public information” about the costs associated with hosting US nuclear weapons in NATO European countries, citing the cost of facility security, nuclear-capable aircraft and preparation to use such weapons.

“Each NATO nuclear-sharing arrangement is governed by secret agreements,” the report said.

“It’s an affront to democracy that citizens and lawmakers are not allowed to know that nuclear weapons from other countries are based on their soil or how much of their taxes is being spent on them,” said the report’s co-author Alicia Sanders-Zakre.

Eight countries openly possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

Israel is widely assumed to have nuclear weapons, although it has never officially acknowledged this.

ICAN said the level of nuclear weapons spending in 2024 by these nine nations could have paid the UN budget almost 28 times over.

“The problem of nuclear weapons is one that can be solved, and doing so means understanding the vested interests fiercely defending the option for nine countries to indiscriminately murder civilians,” said ICAN’s program coordinator Susi Snyder.

The private sector earned at least $42.5 billion from their nuclear weapons contracts in 2024 alone, the report said.

There are at least $463 billion in ongoing nuclear weapons contracts, some of which do not expire for decades, and last year, at least $20 billion in new nuclear weapon contracts were awarded, it added.

“Many of the companies that benefited from this largesse invested heavily in lobbying governments, spending $128 million on those efforts in the United States and France, the two countries for which data is available,” ICAN said.

Standard nuclear doctrine — developed during the Cold War between superpowers the United States and the Soviet Union — is based on the assumption that such weapons will never have to be used because their impact is so devastating, and because nuclear retaliation would probably bring similar destruction on the original attacker.