‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East

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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)
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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at an election night watch party on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)
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Updated 07 November 2024
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‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East

  • President-elect expected to prioritize ending wars in Gaza and Lebanon, pressure Iran, push for normalization deals
  • Arab leaders considered Trump a valuable partner and a robust ally against regional militia groups

LONDON: Defying almost all election predictions, Donald Trump, or “Abu Ivanka” as he is commonly known in the region, has secured what he has called a “powerful mandate” to form the next US administration, with massive implications not just for domestic politics but for the international community, including the Middle East.

Since his election victory was confirmed on Wednesday, messages of congratulations have flooded in from Arab capitals, buoyed by the opportunities for deeper strategic cooperation that a second Trump presidency likely has in store for the region.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump in separate cables on Wednesday, with King Salman praising the “historically close (bilateral) relations that everyone seeks to strengthen and develop in all fields.”




On May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (R) joined  Saudi Arabia's King Salman and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (L) led the inauguration of the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology "Etidal" in Riyadh. (Saudi Royal Palace/AFP/File photo)

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan sent his “sincere congratulations” to Trump in a message on X, saying: “The UAE looks forward to continuing to work with our partners in the US towards a future of opportunity, prosperity, and stability for all.”

Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani posted on X that he looks “forward to working together again to strengthen our strategic relationship and partnership.”

Egypt also welcomed the result, with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi posting on social media: “We look forward to working together in bringing and maintaining regional peace and stability and bolstering the strategic partnership between Egypt and the United States.”

While almost all of the national polls had placed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead in the race to succeed President Joe Biden in the Oval Office, there were clear signs that ethnic minority voters were beginning to turn their backs on the Democrats — among them Arab Americans.




Supporters of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attend a late night hookah bar election watch party in Dearborn, Michigan, on November 6, 2024. Incoming president Donald Trump pulled off a surprising feat late in the 2024 campaign, winning over swathes of Muslim voters with a promise to end bloodshed in the Middle East. (Photo by Issam AHMED / AFP)

An Arab News-YouGov poll conducted in October showed that Biden’s stance on Israel and the war in Gaza had contributed to the alienation of Arab American voters, leading a slim majority of those surveyed to say they would be voting for the Republicans in several swing states.

Some 45 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump, while 43 percent said they would opt for Harris, despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans, and 23 percent as independents.

Although Trump was perceived as being more supportive of Israel than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. Those predictions appear to have played out, with Arab American voters in the swing state of Michigan, for instance, voting for Trump in huge numbers, helping tip the result against the Democrats.




Demonstrators protest in support of the Palestinians who have died in Gaza outside of the Arab American National Museum in Dearborn, Michigan, on August 11, 2024. (AFP)

Trump won 42.5 percent of Dearborn’s vote, compared to 36 percent for Kamala Harris, officials reported. Green Party candidate Jill Stein won 18 percent.

“The reason for this seismic paradigm shift in the Arab American and Muslim voting electorate is because they responded to President Trump’s message of peace,” Oubai Shahbandar, a former defense intelligence officer and Middle East analyst with the Pentagon, told Arab News.

“They responded to President Trump’s outreach to these communities, which was spearheaded by his foreign policy envoy Richard Grenell. It was a message of peace. It was a message of inclusion. They brought in Muslim American community leaders and imams like Belal Alzuhairi, like Amer Ghalib, like Bill Bazzi, and the strategy has paid off.

“It was also a rejection by the Arab American and Muslim American or Middle Eastern community of the past four years of failed Biden-Harris policies, both domestically and when it comes to the foreign policy — a foreign policy that was widely viewed by these communities as enabling the mass killings of Muslims and Arabs across the Middle East.

“And there was a desire for real change, a new way forward. And the numbers speak for themselves. Muslim Americans and Arab Americans wanted President Trump back in the White House.”

Born in 1946 in New York, Trump was a prominent businessman and media personality before going on to serve as president between 2017 and 2021. His political career began in 2015 when he ran for the Republican Party nomination promising immigration reform, trade renegotiation, and a tough stance against Iran.

He won the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton with a focus on “America First” policies, which included tax cuts, deregulation, and shifting foreign policy. However, his presidency was marked by polarizing actions, including his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, two impeachment trials, and often divisive rhetoric on migration, abortion rights, and democracy.

When Trump enters the White House for the second time on Jan. 20, his in-tray will be stacked high with pressing issues jostling for attention, from the cost-of-living crisis and border controls, which were clearly top priorities for US voters, to the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon.

“Trump’s victory exceeded expectations and could prove historic,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Middle East Institute, told Arab News.




Firas Maksad. (AN file photo)

“If they also win the House, this might be the first time Republicans control all branches of government since World War One. It ushers in an era where America lurches decisively to the right.”

If Trump’s second term is anything like his first, tectonic shifts can be expected on foreign policy — shaped by a blend of “America first” isolationism and his aggressive deal-making style, designed to disengage the US from “the endless wars,” break costly stalemates, and promote American business interests over foreign rivals.

“The Trump foreign policy tent includes both foreign policy hawks and isolationists,” said Maksad. “We will need to watch closely to determine who will come to dominate in key foreign policy appointments. Figures like Grenell or Mike Pompeo and Tom Cotton.”




Richard Grenell, former acting Director of National Intelligence, speaks on stage during the Republican National Convention n Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17, 2024. (AFP/File)

While many people in the Arab world are wary of Trump’s close ties to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, others view him as an ally in the effort to rein in Iran-backed militia groups since the killing of the Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

After Trump’s 2016 election victory, his first overseas visit as president was to Riyadh, where in May 2017 he held bilateral talks with the Saudi government and two multilateral meetings with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council and other Arab and Muslim countries.

In an interview with Al Arabiya in October, Trump said the US-Saudi Arabia relationship “was great with capital letters. G-R-E-A-T, great” when he was in the White House and that the crown prince is “a great guy.”

“(I have) so much respect for the king and so much respect for Mohammed who is doing so great,” Trump said. “He’s a real visionary, he’s done things that nobody else would have even thought about.”




US President Donald Trump (R) meets with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House on March 20, 2018 in Washington, DC. (AFP/File)

Trump’s previous administration strengthened the military and economic capacities of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, notably through a boost in trade, support for their regional ambitions, and a hardline stance against Iran, including his withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

“Terrible news for Tehran,” Mohammed A. Salih, a non-resident senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Middle East Program, said in a thread on X on Wednesday, responding to Trump’s election win.

“Expect a renewed maximum pressure campaign, sanctions against Tehran, and an increased likelihood of Israeli strikes within Iran against strategic sites, especially with Iran’s air defense now immensely weakened.”

A new Trump presidency is also likely to be bad news for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia, as it will likely come under further regional pressure and a stronger military campaign by the US and Israel in the wake of its attacks on Red Sea shipping in solidarity with Hamas.




This handout photograph taken on March 6, 2024 and released by the Indian Navy shows the Barbados-flagged bulk carrier following a attack by Yemen's Houthi militia, in the Gulf of Aden.  (AFP/file)

The picture is unclear on Gaza, however, where Israel has been at war with Palestinian militant groups since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Likewise in Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, the implications of a Trump win are uncertain.

While Trump is known as a staunch supporter of Israel, having recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv during his last presidency, he also showed a determination to find a solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The previous Trump administration brokered the Abraham Accords in 2020, which established diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and Arab states including the UAE and Bahrain by decoupling normalization from recognition of Palestinian statehood.

His return to the White House could see the revival of the Abraham Accords and the drive toward Arab-Israeli normalization, which many had written off in the wake of the Gaza war. He has also pledged to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon on day one of his presidency but has not outlined what a solution might look like for the Palestinian people.




In this photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020, then US President Donald Trump celebrates with 
Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (L), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu (2L), and UAE's FM  Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan after the signing of the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, DC. (AFP)

“Trump will try to bring the wars in Gaza and Lebanon to a close, pressure Iran, and push forward on normalization,” said Maksad.

“However, his ability to deliver might be limited by the agency of local actors and the complexity of Israeli politics. There is also uncertainty about whether a Republican president can get enough Democrats in the Senate to approve a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, a crucial part of any pathway towards normalization.”

Although Trump’s victory is likely to be viewed in Europe and perhaps China as ushering in a period of unpredictability, Middle Eastern leaders are likely to welcome a return to a more transactional relationship with Washington — one that is shaped by mutual trade and security interests without perceived interference in their domestic affairs.

“Trump’s victory will support His Highness the Crown Prince’s vision in the region for the benefit of all,” Saudi commentator Mohammed Al-Mubarak posted on X. “Even global companies, especially American ones, will have an active role in this renaissance.”
 

 


Indonesia’s Bali moves to ban plastic bottles

Updated 03 February 2025
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Indonesia’s Bali moves to ban plastic bottles

  • Bali produces around 300,000 tons of plastic waste every year  
  • It was the first Indonesian province to ban single-use plastics in 2019 

JAKARTA: Indonesia’s Bali began banning plastic bottles on Monday, in a move aimed at tackling plastic pollution in one of the world’s most popular tourist destinations.

The island produces around 300,000 tons of plastic waste annually, more than half of which goes uncollected, including 33,000 tons that gets into Bali’s waterways. 

Under the new policy, plastic bottles will be banned across all government offices and schools in Bali. 

“We hope this policy will be implemented in full responsibility by all relevant parties for a green and sustainable Bali,” Dewa Made Indra, the province’s regional secretary, said in a statement. 

The policy also requires “school principals and teachers to serve as role models for students by using tumblers to reduce or eliminate plastic waste from food and beverage packaging.” 

In recent years, Bali’s plastic waste problem has made international headlines as iconic beaches were littered with trash during the peak of the monsoon season, when heavy winds and rain wash up pollution also from neighboring Java island.

Last month, clips of massive “trash waves” on the shoreline of Jimbaran beach went viral on social media, marking one of the year’s first instances of what has become an annual occurrence around the island. 

The issue is also a concern for the central government, with Indonesia’s Environment Minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq taking part in Bali’s beach clean-up events twice last month. 

“It is urgent for the sake of environmental sustainability, and also considering that Bali is a barometer for tourism in Indonesia, so we must show that our country is dedicated to find solutions to the plastic waste management problem,” Ratna Hendratmoko, who heads the Natural Resources Conservation Center in Bali, told Arab News. 

Bali, an island known for its scenic natural beauty and rich traditional culture, draws millions of foreign tourists annually. In 2024, it welcomed more than 6.3 million international visitors — which is around half of the total number of such arrivals in Indonesia. 

In 2019, the Bali provincial government banned single-use plastics in an effort to tackle marine pollution, becoming the first Indonesian province to do so.

The latest policy, which mandates government officials to bring their own reusable water bottles, may be the first step to implementing an islandwide ban.  

“Our staff are committed to comply with this new policy,” I Made Rentin, head of the forestry and environment agency in Bali, told Arab News. 

“For now, we will strengthen implementation internally at the government level.”


Cautious optimism in Bangladesh as post-Hasina relations with Pakistan grow

Updated 03 February 2025
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Cautious optimism in Bangladesh as post-Hasina relations with Pakistan grow

  • Head of Bangladesh interim government has met Pakistani PM twice since taking office on Aug. 8
  • In 2024, Pakistani cargo ships began to arrive at Bangladesh’s main port for the first time in over 50 years

Dhaka: The ouster of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last August has opened a “new horizon of opportunities” for diplomacy with Pakistan, analysts, political parties and members of the public said, as Dhaka and Islamabad move to befriend each other after decades of acrimonious ties.

The head of Bangladesh’s interim government, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif twice since taking office on Aug. 8 after Hasina fled the country following a student-led popular uprising against her government.

Hasina’s government was hostile toward Pakistan but closely allied with India, where she remains exiled. While her removal from office was followed by the cooling of relations between Dhaka and New Delhi, exchanges with Islamabad started to grow.

“The recent developments, in terms of bilateral exchanges with Pakistan, are a process to normalize the relationship. For various reasons, it was below the normal level in the last 15 years. Now, an opportunity has been created to normalize the relationship, which is natural between two states,” Humayun Kabir, former Bangladeshi ambassador to the US, told Arab News.

“I believe India can approach this bilateral relationship normally if they choose to. From India’s perspective, there is no reason to view it negatively. We want the relationship between India and Bangladesh to be considered bilaterally, without being influenced by issues with Pakistan. Similarly, our bilateral relationship with Pakistan will continue independently of any issues with India. I think this approach will create a dynamic in the relationship within the broader context of South Asia.”

Political parties that were in opposition to Hasina’s Awami League party’s government — its archrival the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the largest Islamist party Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, which was banned during her rule — were both optimistic about growing Pakistan ties.

“During the previous regime, Sheikh Hasina maintained close ties with only one country. In her own words, she said: ‘What Bangladesh has given to India, India will remember forever.’ This foreign policy was not the right approach,” said Matiur Rahman Akand, spokesperson of Jamaat-e-Islami.

Nawshad Zamir, the international affairs secretary of the Bangladesh Nationalist party, also welcomed the fact that the two nations had “resumed normal relationship, like before.”

But the memory of the 1971 war for independence remains alive.

Jamaat-e-Islami was at the time an active political party and during the war was aligned with Pakistan, opposing the independence movement.

On the other hand, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party was founded by Ziaur Rahman, a prominent Bangladesh Forces commander and one of the leading figures of the independence war.

While for both parties the normalization of ties with Islamabad is a welcome development, ordinary Bangladeshis see it with a dose of caution.

“We can establish regional cooperation. And I think this is a chance to become a regional leader … (but) personally, I believe that Pakistan first needs to deal with the 1971 issue,” said Mustafa Musfiq Talukdar, student at Dhaka University.

“In 1974, (Pakistan’s then Prime Minister) Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto came to Bangladesh and he kind of apologized personally, but it wasn’t something formal. So, we demand a formal apology from Pakistan for everything they did in 1971.”

For Tamim Muntaseer, a Dhaka-based researcher, an official apology was also essential for the relationship to move forward.

“We have seen that a new horizon of opportunities with Pakistan has been created. And I think this should be supported in terms of justice,” he said.

“Bangladesh and Pakistan are aligned in terms of their regional economy, trade … We should also consider people-to-people relationships.”

Such exchanges have already been underway over the past few months. Since December, Pakistani artists have been performing in Dhaka, while Bangladeshi films have been screened at cinemas in Pakistan.

Pakistani cargo ships also began to arrive at Bangladesh’s main Chittagong port for the first time since the 1971 war.

“I am quite positive about the current developments between Bangladesh and Pakistan,” Tahmid Al-Mudassir Choudhury, another Dhaka University student, told Arab News.

“I am not saying that we must forgive everything. Still, we can keep a good relationship with Pakistan … We have seen that in cricket: Bangladeshi people supporting the Pakistani cricket team, and the people of Pakistan also supporting the Bangladeshi cricket team. We can celebrate those similarities, and this can bring the people of Bangladesh and Pakistan together.”


UN says shooting incident at Kabul compound killed one

Updated 03 February 2025
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UN says shooting incident at Kabul compound killed one

  • UN says gunshots were fired by member of Taliban’s security forces at multilateral agency’s largest compound 
  • Person killed was member of Taliban-run security forces who was outside the compound, unclear what provoked firing

ISLAMABAD: Gunshots fired by a member of the Taliban’s security forces at the United Nations’ largest compound killed one person and injured another in Kabul, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said in a statement on Monday.

The incident took place on Sunday, it said.

The person killed was a member of the Taliban-run security forces who was outside the compound, the statement said without adding any details. The person injured was an international security guard contracted by the UN, it said.

“UN-contracted security guards did not return fire during the incident,” it said.

It was unclear what provoked the firing. Both the Taliban and the UN were investigating the incident.

Kabul’s interior ministry spokesman Abdul Mateen Qaniee confirmed that a Taliban guard was killed and one UN contractor suffered injuries.

Taliban authorities halted all movement in and out of the compound following the incident, UNAMA said, but those restrictions have now been lifted.

The compound houses the offices of multiple UN agencies, funds and programs, and accommodation for UN international staff members.


Ukrainian troops lose ground with fewer fighters and exposed supply lines

Updated 03 February 2025
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Ukrainian troops lose ground with fewer fighters and exposed supply lines

  • Moscow is set on capturing as much territory as possible as the Trump administration is pushing for negotiations to end the war
  • Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk said that Russian forces switched tactics in recent weeks, attacking their flanks instead of going head-on

POKROVSK REGION, Ukraine: A dire shortage of infantry troops and supply routes coming under Russian drone attacks are conspiring against Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk, where decisive battles in the nearly three-year war are playing out — and time is running short.
Ukrainian troops are losing ground around the crucial supply hub, which lies at the confluence of multiple highways leading to key cities in the eastern Donetsk region as well as an important railway station.
Moscow is set on capturing as much territory as possible as the Trump administration is pushing for negotiations to end the war and recently froze foreign aid to Ukraine, a move that has shocked Ukrainian officials already apprehensive about the intentions of the new US president, their most important ally. Military aid has not stopped, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.
Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk said that Russian forces switched tactics in recent weeks, attacking their flanks instead of going head-on to form a pincer movement around the city. With Russians in control of dominant heights, Ukrainian supply routes are now within their range. Heavy fog in recent days prevented Ukrainian soldiers from effectively using surveillance drones, allowing Russians to consolidate and take more territory.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian commanders say they do not have enough reserves to sustain defense lines and that new infantry units are failing to execute operations. Many pin hopes on Mykhailo Drapatyi, a respected commander recently appointed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as ground forces chief, to shift the dynamic and counterattack.
“The war is won by logistics. If there is no logistics, there is no infantry, because there is no way to supply it,” said the deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion, known by the call sign Afer.
“(Russians) have learned this and are doing it quite well.”
Poor weather at the worst time
A combination of factors led Kyiv to effectively lose the settlement of Velyka Novosilka this past week, their most significant gain since seizing the city of Kurakhove in the Donetsk region in January.
Scattered groups of Ukrainian soldiers are still present in Velyka Novosilka’s southern sector, Ukrainian commanders said, prompting criticism from some military experts who questioned why the higher command did not order a full withdrawal.
The road-junction village is 15 kilometers (9 miles) from the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region, where authorities have begun digging fortifications for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, anticipating further Russian advances.
Russia amassed a large number of infantry around Velyka Novosilka, soldiers there said. As heavy fog set in in recent days, Ukrainian drones “barely worked” to conduct surveillance, one commander near Pokrovsk told The Associated Press. Long-range and medium-range surveillance was impossible, he said. He spoke on condition of anonymity in order to speak freely about sensitive military matters.
“Because of this, the enemy was amassing forces … taking up positions, digging in. They were very good at it,” he said.
It was at that fateful moment that Russian forces launched a massive attack: Up to 10 columns of armored vehicles, each with up to 10 units, moved out from various directions.
Ukrainian logistics in peril
Key logistics routes along asphalted roads and highways are under direct threat from Russian drones as a result of Moscow’s recent gains, further straining Ukrainian troops.
Russian forces now occupy key dominant heights around the Pokrovsk region, which allows them to use drones up to 30 kilometers (18 miles) deep into Ukrainian front lines.
The Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad-Dnipro highway is “already under the control of Russian drones,” said the commander at Pokrovsk’s flanks. Russian forces are less than 4 kilometers ( 2 1/2 miles) away and are affecting Ukrainian traffic, he said. “Now the road is only 10 percent of its former capacity,” he said.
Another paved highway, the Myrnohrad-Kostyantynivka road, is also under Russian fire, he said.
This also means that in poor weather, military vehicles, including armored personnel carriers, tanks and pickup trucks, have to trudge through the open fields to deliver fuel, food and ammunition, as well as evacuate the wounded.
In a first-aid station near Pokrovsk, a paramedic with the call sign Marik said evacuating wounded soldiers once took hours, now it takes days.
“Everything is visible (by enemy drones) and it is very difficult,” he said.
New recruits are unprepared
Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk said shortages of fighting troops are “catastrophic” and challenges are compounded by newly created infantry units that are poorly trained and inexperienced, putting more pressure on battle-hardened brigades having to step in to stabilize the front line.
Afer, the deputy commander, complained that new recruits are “constantly extending the front line because they leave their positions, they do not hold them, they do not control them, they do not monitor them. We do almost all the work for them.”
“Because of this, having initially a 2-kilometer area of responsibility, you end up with 8-9 kilometers per battalion, which is a lot and we don’t have enough resources,” Afer said. Drones are especially hard to come by for his battalion, he said, adding they only have half of what they need.
“It’s not because they have lower quality infantry, but because they are completely unprepared for modern warfare,” he said of the new recruits.
His battalion has almost no reserves, forcing infantry units to hold front-line positions for weeks at a time. For every one of his soldiers, Russians have 20, he said, emphasizing how outnumbered they are.
Back at the first-aid station, a wounded soldier with the call sign Fish was recovering from a leg wound sustained after he tried to evacuate a fallen comrade. He had moved him from a dugout to load him into a vehicle when the Russian mortar shell exploded nearby.
“We are fighting back as much as we can, as best as we can,” he said.


South Africa’s Ramaphosa to engage Trump over aid suspension

Updated 03 February 2025
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South Africa’s Ramaphosa to engage Trump over aid suspension

JOHANNESBURG: South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Monday that he looked forward to engaging with US President Donald Trump, after Trump said he would cut off funding for South Africa, citing land confiscations.
“We look forward to engaging with the Trump administration over our land reform policy and issues of bilateral interest. We are certain that out of those engagements, we will share a better and common understanding over these matters,” Ramaphosa said in a statement issued by the presidency.
“South Africa is a constitutional democracy that is deeply rooted in the rule of law, justice and equality. The South African government has not confiscated any land.”
Ramaphosa said except for PEPFAR aid, which constitutes 17 percent of South Africa’s HIV/Aids program, there was no other significant funding provided by the United States.