‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East

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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)
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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at an election night watch party on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)
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Updated 07 November 2024
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‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East

  • President-elect expected to prioritize ending wars in Gaza and Lebanon, pressure Iran, push for normalization deals
  • Arab leaders considered Trump a valuable partner and a robust ally against regional militia groups

LONDON: Defying almost all election predictions, Donald Trump, or “Abu Ivanka” as he is commonly known in the region, has secured what he has called a “powerful mandate” to form the next US administration, with massive implications not just for domestic politics but for the international community, including the Middle East.

Since his election victory was confirmed on Wednesday, messages of congratulations have flooded in from Arab capitals, buoyed by the opportunities for deeper strategic cooperation that a second Trump presidency likely has in store for the region.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump in separate cables on Wednesday, with King Salman praising the “historically close (bilateral) relations that everyone seeks to strengthen and develop in all fields.”




On May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (R) joined  Saudi Arabia's King Salman and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (L) led the inauguration of the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology "Etidal" in Riyadh. (Saudi Royal Palace/AFP/File photo)

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan sent his “sincere congratulations” to Trump in a message on X, saying: “The UAE looks forward to continuing to work with our partners in the US towards a future of opportunity, prosperity, and stability for all.”

Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani posted on X that he looks “forward to working together again to strengthen our strategic relationship and partnership.”

Egypt also welcomed the result, with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi posting on social media: “We look forward to working together in bringing and maintaining regional peace and stability and bolstering the strategic partnership between Egypt and the United States.”

While almost all of the national polls had placed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead in the race to succeed President Joe Biden in the Oval Office, there were clear signs that ethnic minority voters were beginning to turn their backs on the Democrats — among them Arab Americans.




Supporters of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attend a late night hookah bar election watch party in Dearborn, Michigan, on November 6, 2024. Incoming president Donald Trump pulled off a surprising feat late in the 2024 campaign, winning over swathes of Muslim voters with a promise to end bloodshed in the Middle East. (Photo by Issam AHMED / AFP)

An Arab News-YouGov poll conducted in October showed that Biden’s stance on Israel and the war in Gaza had contributed to the alienation of Arab American voters, leading a slim majority of those surveyed to say they would be voting for the Republicans in several swing states.

Some 45 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump, while 43 percent said they would opt for Harris, despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans, and 23 percent as independents.

Although Trump was perceived as being more supportive of Israel than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. Those predictions appear to have played out, with Arab American voters in the swing state of Michigan, for instance, voting for Trump in huge numbers, helping tip the result against the Democrats.




Demonstrators protest in support of the Palestinians who have died in Gaza outside of the Arab American National Museum in Dearborn, Michigan, on August 11, 2024. (AFP)

Trump won 42.5 percent of Dearborn’s vote, compared to 36 percent for Kamala Harris, officials reported. Green Party candidate Jill Stein won 18 percent.

“The reason for this seismic paradigm shift in the Arab American and Muslim voting electorate is because they responded to President Trump’s message of peace,” Oubai Shahbandar, a former defense intelligence officer and Middle East analyst with the Pentagon, told Arab News.

“They responded to President Trump’s outreach to these communities, which was spearheaded by his foreign policy envoy Richard Grenell. It was a message of peace. It was a message of inclusion. They brought in Muslim American community leaders and imams like Belal Alzuhairi, like Amer Ghalib, like Bill Bazzi, and the strategy has paid off.

“It was also a rejection by the Arab American and Muslim American or Middle Eastern community of the past four years of failed Biden-Harris policies, both domestically and when it comes to the foreign policy — a foreign policy that was widely viewed by these communities as enabling the mass killings of Muslims and Arabs across the Middle East.

“And there was a desire for real change, a new way forward. And the numbers speak for themselves. Muslim Americans and Arab Americans wanted President Trump back in the White House.”

Born in 1946 in New York, Trump was a prominent businessman and media personality before going on to serve as president between 2017 and 2021. His political career began in 2015 when he ran for the Republican Party nomination promising immigration reform, trade renegotiation, and a tough stance against Iran.

He won the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton with a focus on “America First” policies, which included tax cuts, deregulation, and shifting foreign policy. However, his presidency was marked by polarizing actions, including his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, two impeachment trials, and often divisive rhetoric on migration, abortion rights, and democracy.

When Trump enters the White House for the second time on Jan. 20, his in-tray will be stacked high with pressing issues jostling for attention, from the cost-of-living crisis and border controls, which were clearly top priorities for US voters, to the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon.

“Trump’s victory exceeded expectations and could prove historic,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Middle East Institute, told Arab News.




Firas Maksad. (AN file photo)

“If they also win the House, this might be the first time Republicans control all branches of government since World War One. It ushers in an era where America lurches decisively to the right.”

If Trump’s second term is anything like his first, tectonic shifts can be expected on foreign policy — shaped by a blend of “America first” isolationism and his aggressive deal-making style, designed to disengage the US from “the endless wars,” break costly stalemates, and promote American business interests over foreign rivals.

“The Trump foreign policy tent includes both foreign policy hawks and isolationists,” said Maksad. “We will need to watch closely to determine who will come to dominate in key foreign policy appointments. Figures like Grenell or Mike Pompeo and Tom Cotton.”




Richard Grenell, former acting Director of National Intelligence, speaks on stage during the Republican National Convention n Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17, 2024. (AFP/File)

While many people in the Arab world are wary of Trump’s close ties to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, others view him as an ally in the effort to rein in Iran-backed militia groups since the killing of the Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

After Trump’s 2016 election victory, his first overseas visit as president was to Riyadh, where in May 2017 he held bilateral talks with the Saudi government and two multilateral meetings with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council and other Arab and Muslim countries.

In an interview with Al Arabiya in October, Trump said the US-Saudi Arabia relationship “was great with capital letters. G-R-E-A-T, great” when he was in the White House and that the crown prince is “a great guy.”

“(I have) so much respect for the king and so much respect for Mohammed who is doing so great,” Trump said. “He’s a real visionary, he’s done things that nobody else would have even thought about.”




US President Donald Trump (R) meets with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House on March 20, 2018 in Washington, DC. (AFP/File)

Trump’s previous administration strengthened the military and economic capacities of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, notably through a boost in trade, support for their regional ambitions, and a hardline stance against Iran, including his withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

“Terrible news for Tehran,” Mohammed A. Salih, a non-resident senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Middle East Program, said in a thread on X on Wednesday, responding to Trump’s election win.

“Expect a renewed maximum pressure campaign, sanctions against Tehran, and an increased likelihood of Israeli strikes within Iran against strategic sites, especially with Iran’s air defense now immensely weakened.”

A new Trump presidency is also likely to be bad news for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia, as it will likely come under further regional pressure and a stronger military campaign by the US and Israel in the wake of its attacks on Red Sea shipping in solidarity with Hamas.




This handout photograph taken on March 6, 2024 and released by the Indian Navy shows the Barbados-flagged bulk carrier following a attack by Yemen's Houthi militia, in the Gulf of Aden.  (AFP/file)

The picture is unclear on Gaza, however, where Israel has been at war with Palestinian militant groups since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Likewise in Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, the implications of a Trump win are uncertain.

While Trump is known as a staunch supporter of Israel, having recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv during his last presidency, he also showed a determination to find a solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The previous Trump administration brokered the Abraham Accords in 2020, which established diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and Arab states including the UAE and Bahrain by decoupling normalization from recognition of Palestinian statehood.

His return to the White House could see the revival of the Abraham Accords and the drive toward Arab-Israeli normalization, which many had written off in the wake of the Gaza war. He has also pledged to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon on day one of his presidency but has not outlined what a solution might look like for the Palestinian people.




In this photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020, then US President Donald Trump celebrates with 
Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (L), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu (2L), and UAE's FM  Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan after the signing of the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, DC. (AFP)

“Trump will try to bring the wars in Gaza and Lebanon to a close, pressure Iran, and push forward on normalization,” said Maksad.

“However, his ability to deliver might be limited by the agency of local actors and the complexity of Israeli politics. There is also uncertainty about whether a Republican president can get enough Democrats in the Senate to approve a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, a crucial part of any pathway towards normalization.”

Although Trump’s victory is likely to be viewed in Europe and perhaps China as ushering in a period of unpredictability, Middle Eastern leaders are likely to welcome a return to a more transactional relationship with Washington — one that is shaped by mutual trade and security interests without perceived interference in their domestic affairs.

“Trump’s victory will support His Highness the Crown Prince’s vision in the region for the benefit of all,” Saudi commentator Mohammed Al-Mubarak posted on X. “Even global companies, especially American ones, will have an active role in this renaissance.”
 

 


UK says it respects ICC independence as court issues arrest warrants

Updated 6 sec ago
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UK says it respects ICC independence as court issues arrest warrants

PM Keir Starmer’s spokesperson said: “We remain focused on pushing for an immediate ceasefire to bring an end to the devastating violence in Gaza”

LONDON: Britain respects the independence of the International Criminal Court, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s spokesperson said on Thursday, after it issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his ex-defense chief and a Hamas leader.
“We respect the independence of the International Criminal Court, which is the primary international institution for investigating and prosecuting the most serious crimes of international concern,” the spokesperson told reporters.
“There is no moral equivalence between Israel, a democracy, and Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, which are terrorist organizations. We remain focused on pushing for an immediate ceasefire to bring an end to the devastating violence in Gaza.”

Russia fires what appears to be intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine, Kyiv says

Updated 43 min 26 sec ago
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Russia fires what appears to be intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine, Kyiv says

  • Western officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, later told Reuters their initial analysis showed it was not an intercontinental ballistic missile
  • Regardless of its classification, the latest strike highlighted rapidly rising tensions in the 33-month-old war

KYIV: Ukraine said Russia fired what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile at the city of Dnipro on Thursday, in what would be the first use in war of a weapon designed to deliver long-distance nuclear strikes.
Western officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, later told Reuters their initial analysis showed it was not an intercontinental ballistic missile, though they left open the possibility that conclusion could change.
Regardless of its classification, the latest strike highlighted rapidly rising tensions in the 33-month-old war.
Ukraine fired US and British missiles at targets inside Russia this week despite warnings by Moscow that it would see such action as a major escalation.
Security experts said that if Thursday’s strike involved an intercontinental ballistic missile, it would be the first use of such a missile in war. ICBMs are strategic weapons designed to deliver nuclear warheads and are an important part of Russia’s nuclear deterrent.
“Today there was a new Russian missile. All the characteristics – speed, altitude – are (of an) intercontinental ballistic (missile). An expert (investigation) is currently underway,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video statement.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry urged the international community to react swiftly to the use of what it said was “the use by Russia of a new type of weaponry.”
The Ukrainian air force said the missile was fired from the Russian region of Astrakhan, more than 700 km (435 miles) from Dnipro in central-eastern Ukraine. It did not specify what kind of warhead the missile had or what type of missile it was. There was no suggestion it was nuclear-armed.
Asked about the air force statement, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters to contact Russian military for comment.
Ukrainska Pravda, a Kyiv-based media outlet, cited anonymous sources saying the missile was an RS-26 Rubezh, a solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 5,800 km, according to the Arms Control Association.
The RS-26 was first successfully tested in 2012, and is estimated to be 12 meters (40 ft) long and weigh 36 tons, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). It said the RS-26 can carry an 800-kg (1,765-pound)nuclear warhead.
The RS-26 is classified as an ICBM under a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia, but it can be seen as an intermediate-range ballistic missile when used with heavier payloads at ranges below 5,500 km, CSIS said.


At least 38 killed as gunmen open fire on vehicles carrying Shiites in northwest Pakistan

Updated 21 November 2024
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At least 38 killed as gunmen open fire on vehicles carrying Shiites in northwest Pakistan

  • No one immediately claimed responsibility for the latest attack
  • Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said at least 38 people were killed in the “terrorist attack“

PESHAWAR: Gunmen opened fire on vehicles carrying Shiite Muslims in Pakistan’s restive northwest on Thursday, killing at least 38 people, including six women, and wounding 20 others in one of the region’s deadliest such attacks in recent years, police said.
The attack happened in Kurram, a district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province where sectarian clashes between majority Sunni Muslims and minority Shiites have killed dozens of people in recent months.
No one immediately claimed responsibility for the latest attack. It came a week after authorities reopened a key highway in the region that had been closed for weeks following deadly clashes.
Local police official Azmat Ali said several vehicles were traveling in a convoy from the city of Parachinar to Peshawar, the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, when gunmen opened fire. He said at least 10 passengers were in critical condition at a hospital.
Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said at least 38 people were killed in the “terrorist attack.” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari condemned the attack, and Sharif said those behind the killing of innocent civilians will not go unpunished.
A witness, 35-year-old Mir Hussain, said he saw four gunmen emerge from a vehicle and open fire on buses and cars.
“I think other people were also firing at the convoy of vehicles from nearby open farm field,” he said. “The firing continued for about 40 minutes.” He said he hid until the attackers fled.
“I heard cries of women, and people were shouting for the help,” he said.
Baqir Haideri, a local Shiite leader, denounced the assault and said the death toll was likely to rise.
Shop owners in Parachinar announced a strike on Friday to protest the attack.
Shiite Muslims make up about 15 percent of the 240 million population of Sunni-majority Pakistan, which has a history of sectarian animosity between the communities.
Although they live together largely peacefully, tensions have existed for decades in some areas, especially in parts of Kurram, where Shiites are the majority. Nearly 50 people from both sides were killed over a land dispute in July when clashes between Sunni and Shiites erupted in Kurram.
Pakistan is tackling violence in the northwest and southwest, where militants and separatists often target police, troops and civilians. Most of the violence in these areas has been blamed on the Pakistani Taliban and the outlawed Baloch Liberation Army.


WHO chief released from hospital in Rio de Janeiro

Updated 21 November 2024
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WHO chief released from hospital in Rio de Janeiro

  • According to the hospital, Tedros was admitted on Wednesday afternoon
  • He “underwent all the necessary tests, which confirmed clinical indicators with no signs of seriousness”

SAO PAULO: World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has been released from Rio de Janeiro’s Hospital Samaritano Barra da Tijuca after spending the night under observation, the hospital said.
According to the hospital, Tedros was admitted on Wednesday afternoon and “underwent all the necessary tests, which confirmed clinical indicators with no signs of seriousness, and was discharged from hospital this morning.”
Local newspaper O Globo had reported earlier on Thursday that Tedros sought medical attention at the facility with “symptoms of labyrinthitis and an hypertensive crisis,” after showing signs of being unwell earlier this week on the sidelines of the G20 summit.
According to the report, Tedros was examined on Monday by health professionals on duty at the G20 summit and given medicine for high blood pressure, but was released once he was stable.
The G20 summit in Rio ended this week with calls for cooperation on climate change, poverty reduction and tax policy.


Sri Lanka’s new president to keep predecessor’s controversial IMF bailout program

Updated 21 November 2024
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Sri Lanka’s new president to keep predecessor’s controversial IMF bailout program

  • During election campaign, Dissanayake promised to renegotiate IMF deal because austerity measures burdened ordinary people
  • In new policy statement he vows to increase welfare programs without derailing the IMF program

COLOMBO: Sri Lanka plans to finalize a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said during the first sitting of the new Parliament on Thursday, maintaining the bailout program secured by his predecessor.

A delegation from the IMF is in Colombo for the third review of its $2.9 billion program ahead of releasing a new tranche of funds to Sri Lanka’s battered economy.

The IMF loan was negotiated by former President Ranil Wickremesinghe early last year. It required the Sri Lankan government to introduce austerity measures that led to price increases in food and fuel and caused hardship to millions of Sri Lankans.

Dissanayake, who assumed the top job in September and further consolidated his grip on power after his National People’s Power alliance won a majority in the legislature last week, had earlier promised to renegotiate the targets set in the IMF deal, because it placed too much burden on ordinary people.

But in his first speech to the inaugural session of Parliament, the president said the economy was “hanging by a thread” — too fragile to take risks.

A country of 22 million, Sri Lanka was hit by the worst economic crisis in its history in 2022, when its defaulted economy shrank by 7.8 percent and 2.3 percent last year.

“The reality in front of us now is that we have no time to check whether these agreements are beneficial or harmful to us, as these are the results of nearly two years of discussions,” he said.

“We cannot go forward if we continue through another two years to study and renegotiate the previous agreement.”

The agreement would allow the release of $337 million to Sri Lanka under the IMF’s four-year loan program. Dissanayake said he expected the agreement to be signed on Friday.

As he outlined his government policy to legislators, he vowed to keep his key election pledges of reducing taxes and increasing welfare programs without derailing the IMF program.

His government is scheduled to present the interim 2025 budget in February.