Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like

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Updated 11 November 2024
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Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like

  • Former US ambassador and current senior fellow at the Middle East Institute outlined his expectations for the Middle East and beyond
  • Robert Ford appeared on the “Frankly Speaking” show as Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepared to take the reins of power

DUBAI: Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House after a resounding victory in the Nov. 5 election is set to reshape America’s foreign policy. Since it comes at a time of unprecedented tension and uncertainty in the Middle East, regional actors are closely watching for signs of how a new Republican administration might wield influence and power.

In a wide-ranging interview, Robert Ford, a veteran American diplomat with extensive Arab region experience, outlined his expectations for the Middle East and beyond, indicating that it is important to set expectations for what can be achieved. 

Middle East conflicts, especially those in Gaza and Lebanon, have dominated the international conversation since a deadly Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7 last year sparked a devastating Israeli military retaliation. “With respect to President-elect Trump’s promises to end wars, I don’t think he can end a war in a day,” Ford said on “Frankly Speaking,” the weekly Arab News current affairs show.

“I don’t think he can end a war in a week, but he can push for negotiations on the Ukraine war. And with respect to the war in Gaza and the war in Lebanon, he has an ability to influence events. (But) I am not sure he will use that ability.”

Ford noted that there is little support within the Republican Party for a two-state solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, making it unlikely that the incoming Trump administration will pressure Israel on this issue. 




Robert Ford, a veteran American diplomat with extensive Middle East experience, outlined to Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen his expectations for the Middle East and beyond following the election of Donald Trump as US President. (AN Photo)

“The American Republican Party, in particular, has evinced little support for the establishment of a Palestinian state over the past 15 years. There is no (faction) in the Republican Party exerting pressure for that,” he said. 

In fact, he pointed out, “there are many in the Republican Party who back harder line Israeli politicians who reject the establishment of a Palestinian state.” 

In the current political climate, when there is strong Arab-Islamic unity over the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the consequent high civilian death toll, recognition of a Palestinian state has become a matter of priority for regional actors. Saudi Arabia has been leading efforts to boost international cooperation to reach a two-state solution. In September, the Kingdom’s government formed a global alliance to lead efforts aimed at establishing a Palestinian state.

Ford, who is a current senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that any push for progress on this issue will likely come from Gulf leaders. “The only people who will have influence with President Trump personally on this are in fact leaders in the Gulf. And if they make Palestine a priority, perhaps he will reconsider, and I emphasize the word ‘perhaps’,” he said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is keen on normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia, but the Kingdom has made it very clear that normalization will be off the table unless it sees the recognition of a Palestinian state.

“The first thing is I would imagine that the incoming Trump administration will ask the Saudi government whether or not it is still insistent on a Palestinian state — or at least concrete measures toward a Palestinian state — as part of a package deal involving a US-Saudi defense agreement,” Ford told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

“I think the Trump people would rather not have any kind of Saudi conditionality regarding Palestine as part of that agreement, because, in large part, the Israelis won’t accept it.” 

The US has long been the largest arms supplier to Israel. Last year, after Israel began its assault on Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups, it asked the US for $10 billion in emergency military aid, according to a New York Times report. The Council on Foreign Relations, an independent US-based think tank, estimates that the US has provided at least $12.5 billion in military aid to Israel since last October.

Trump has reportedly told Netanyahu that he wants the war in Gaza, which so far has claimed more than 43,400 Palestinian lives, most of them civilians, to finish by the time he takes office in January. Does that mean a Trump administration will put pressure on the Israeli leader to wrap up the war?




Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Wednesday, Nov. 6. (AP)

Ford ruled out the possibility of a reduction in US supply of weapons to Israel. “It’s extremely unlikely that, especially in 2025, President Trump and his team will impose an arms embargo on Israel,” he said. 

Ford expects Trump’s well-known disdain for foreign aid to affect US assistance for Israel in the long term, but without the use of reductions as a threat. 

“I do think that President Trump does not particularly like foreign aid. He views foreign aid as an expenditure of American money and resources that he would rather keep in the US,” he said. 

“So, over the long term, and I stress the word ‘long term,’ I could imagine that President Trump might look for ways to begin to reduce the annual American assistance to Israel, which is over $4 billion in total. 

“But I don’t think he would do that in a way that is used as a threat against Israel. It’s much more likely it would be part of a Trump measure to reduce foreign aid to a lot of countries, not only Israel.”

The Middle East’s second major conflict, between Israel and Hezbollah, has been raging for 13 months now in Lebanon, taking a toll of 3,000 lives, including combatants, and displacing 1.2 million people from the country’s south. In Israel, 72 people, including 30 soldiers, have been killed by Hezbollah attacks and 60,000 people have been displaced during the same period.

The war shows no signs of ending: Israel says it is carrying out new operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon and in parts of Syria, while Hezbollah continues to launch dozens of rockets into northern Israel.

Ford sees potential for early US involvement in discussions on Lebanon “fairly early in the administration,” adding that the engagement would begin through a family connection between Trump and Lebanon.

Although he does not think Lebanon is high on the incoming administration’s agenda, he finds “it is interesting that there is a family connection between President-elect Trump and Lebanon.”

“The husband of one of his daughters is connected to Lebanon, and his daughter’s father-in-law,” Ford, said referring to Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman whose son Michael married Tiffany Trump two years ago and who acted as a Trump emissary to the Arab American community during the election campaign.

“Because Trump operates very much with family, and we saw that in the first administration — first Trump administration — supposedly this Lebanese American gentleman, businessman, may be involved in some discussions.”

Ford also noted that “Israeli success against Hezbollah and against Iran has made the Hezbollah and Iranian side more flexible in their positions,” adding that “it might be easier to reach an agreement on ending the war in Lebanon than, for example, it will be in Gaza.” 

Moving on to Syria, Ford, who served as the US ambassador in Damascus from 2011 to 2014, said while the country “is very low on President Trump’s priority list,” Trump might pull the remaining American troops out.

The US is reported to have a military presence of approximately 900 personnel in eastern Syria and 2,500 in Iraq as part of the international coalition against Daesh. The troops in Syria serve various purposes: helping prevent the resurgence of Daesh, supporting Washington’s Kurdish allies and containing the influence of Iran and Russia — both of which also have a military presence in Syria.

“I think it more likely than not that President Trump will withdraw the remaining American forces in Syria, which numbers somewhere around 1,000,” Ford said, adding that the president-elect might also “withdraw the American forces that are now in Iraq as part of the international coalition against Daesh.” 

He added that Trump “may, perhaps, accept a bilateral relationship, military relationship with Iraq afterward,” but Syria remains “low on his priority list.”

Ford also thinks it is “impossible” for Syrian President Bashar Assad to abandon his alliance with Iran, against which the new Trump administration is expected to reapply “maximum pressure.” 

“The Iranians really saved him (Assad) from the Syrian armed opposition in 2013 and 2014 and 2015,” he said. “There is no alternative for President Assad to a continued close military relationship with Iran.”

He added: “I’m sure President Assad is uncomfortable with some of the things which Iran is doing in Syria and which are triggering substantial Israeli airstrikes. But to abandon Iran? No, that’s difficult for me to imagine.”

He said to expect the Syrian leader to trust Gulf Arab governments more than he would trust the Iranians would be “a big ask.”

When it comes to US policy toward Iran, Ford expects the new Trump administration to return to the “maximum pressure” policy. “For a long time, the Biden administration ignored Iranian sales of petroleum to Chinese companies. ... But the Trump administration is certainly going to take more aggressive action against Chinese companies that import Iranian oil and other countries,” he said.




Demonstration by the families of the hostages taken captive in the Gaza Strip by Hamas militants during the Oct. 7 attacks, calling for action to release the hostages, outside the Israeli Prime Minister's residence in Azza (Gaza) Street in central Jerusalem last month. (AFP)

“It’s highly unlikely that the Trump administration is going to accept that Iraq imports and pays for Iranian energy products, such as electricity and natural gas.”

Ford sees the Trump team as split into two camps: the extreme conservatives, who want regime change in Tehran, and the isolationists, who oppose the US entering a war with Iran.

“There is a camp of extreme conservatives, many of whom actually do favor attempting regime change in Iran. They won’t use the words ‘regime change’ because the words have a bad air, a bad connotation in the US now, but they are, in effect, calling for regime change in Iran,” he said. 

“I should hasten to add that they don’t know what would replace the Islamic Republic in terms of a government.” 

According to Ford, the second camp “is a more, in some ways, isolationist camp. J.D. Vance, the vice president-elect, would be in this camp; so would American media personality Tucker Carlson, who’s a very strong Trump supporter and who has influence with Trump. 

“They do not want to send in the American military into a new war in the Middle East, and they don’t advocate for a war against Iran.”

Ford’s own sense of Trump, from his first administration and from recent statements, is that “he, too, is very cautious about sending the US military to fight Iran.”

Similarly, the Trump team is divided when it comes to the Ukraine war, according to Ford, so it will take some time “for Trump himself to make a definitive policy decision.”

“There are some, such as former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who are very firm supporters of the Ukrainian effort against Russia. Others, like Vance, are not.”

The second reality regarding Ukraine, Ford said, is that Trump himself is skeptical about the value of NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

“I cannot imagine that he will be enthusiastic in any way about Ukraine joining NATO. That will at least address one of Moscow’s big concerns,” he said. “The third point I would make: The Americans may propose ideas. But the American ideas about, for example, an autonomous region in eastern Ukraine or freezing the battle lines.”

He added: “I’m not sure that (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky is going to be enthusiastic about accepting them. I’m not sure the Europeans will be enthusiastic about accepting them. And therefore, again, the negotiation process could take a long time.”

On who might advise Trump on Middle East policy after he moves into the White House in January, now that Jared Kushner, the former senior adviser and Trump’s son-in-law, has announced he does not plan to join the administration this time, Ford said Trump places a very high regard on loyalty to him personally.

“People such as Richard Grenell, who was his acting director of national intelligence, and Pompeo pass that kind of loyalty test,” he said. (On Sunday, Trump announced he would not ask Pompeo or former primary opponent Nikki Haley to join his second administration.)

“Trump’s agenda this time is massive change in the Washington federal departments among the employees. And he will trust loyalists … to implement those deep changes — the firing of thousands of employees,” Ford said. “We will see a very different kind of Trump foreign policy establishment by the time we arrive in the year 2026-2027.”

 

 

 


Romanian leftist PM and hard-right candidate in a tie after initial presidential election round, partial results show

Updated 6 sec ago
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Romanian leftist PM and hard-right candidate in a tie after initial presidential election round, partial results show

  • Romania’s staunchly pro-Ukraine stance at risk
  • Hard-right Georgescu has questioned NATO commitment to collective defense

BUCHAREST: A Romanian hard-right NATO critic and leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu appeared in dead heat after the first round of presidential elections on Sunday, partial tallies showed, in a shock result threatening Romania’s staunchly pro-Ukraine stance.
After nearly 90 percent of votes were counted, Calin Georgescu, 62, was at 22 percent, while Ciolacu had 21.7 percent. However, ballots from the sizeable Romanian diaspora, which are not included in the main tally, showed a center-right politician, Elena Lasconi, 52, first with 33.4 percent and Georgescu second.
Romania’s president has a semi-executive role that gives him or her control over defense spending — likely to be a difficult issue as Bucharest comes under pressure to uphold NATO spending goals during Donald Trump’s second term as US president while trying to reduce a heavy fiscal deficit.
Lasconi told supporters after exit polls were released giving her a small lead over Georgescu, with Ciolacu in first place, that she was optimistic about making the runoff. “But as you can see, the results are very tight, let us wait until tomorrow’s results to rejoice.”
Campaigning focused largely on the soaring cost of living, with Romania having the EU’s biggest share of people at risk of poverty.
Georgescu is a former prominent member of the hard-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians party.
In 2021 he has called NATO’s ballistic missile defense shield in the Romanian town of Deveselu a “shame of diplomacy” and said the North Atlantic alliance will not protect any of its members should they be attacked by Russia.
Lasconi, a former journalist, joined the Save Romania Union (USR) in 2018 and became party head this year. She believes in raising defense spending and helping Ukraine, and surveys suggest she would beat Ciolacu in a runoff.
Romania shares a 650-km (400-mile) border with Ukraine and since Russia attacked Kyiv in 2022, it has enabled the export of millions of tons of grain through its Black Sea port of Constanta and provided military aid, including the donation of a Patriot air defense battery.
“It will be a tight run-off, with the Social Democrat leader more vulnerable to negative campaigning due to him being an incumbent PM,” said political commentator Radu Magdin.


Somalia says 24 people have died after 2 boats capsized in the Indian Ocean

Updated 25 November 2024
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Somalia says 24 people have died after 2 boats capsized in the Indian Ocean

  • A delegation led by the Somali ambassador to Ethiopia is scheduled to travel to Madagascar on Monday to investigate the incident and coordinate efforts to help survivors

MOGADISHU, Somalia: Twenty-four people died after two boats capsized off the Madagascar coast in the Indian Ocean, Somalia’s government said Sunday.
Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi said 46 people were rescued.
“We are working tirelessly to ensure the survivors are brought back home safely and provided with the necessary care,” he said.
Most of the passengers were young Somalis, and their intended destination remains unclear. Many young Somalis embark every year on dangerous journeys in search of better opportunities abroad.
A delegation led by the Somali ambassador to Ethiopia is scheduled to travel to Madagascar on Monday to investigate the incident and coordinate efforts to help survivors.
Fiqi also said Sunday that Somalia’s ambassador to Morocco will look into a separate report of Somali youth stranded on Morocco’s coastline. It is not clear when the Morocco incident took place and Fiqi did not provide details.
The UN migration agency has in the past raised concern over rising cases of irregular migration from the Horn of Africa countries as people flee from conflict and drought.
In April, 38 migrants died and 22 others were rescued from a shipwreck off Djibouti on a popular route to Yemen. Most of those rescued were of Somali and Ethiopian nationalities.

 


‘It wasn’t just about me’: Imam honored for unity efforts after UK race riots

Updated 24 November 2024
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‘It wasn’t just about me’: Imam honored for unity efforts after UK race riots

  • Three children were killed, and 10 others — eight of whom were children — were injured in an attack in Southport
  • In days following attack, crowds gathered to demonstrate outside Liverpool mosque

LONDON: A Muslim leader in the UK has been recognized for his efforts to foster unity after embracing protesters outside Liverpool’s Abdullah Quilliam Mosque in the wake of a knife attack in the northern English town of Southport in July.

Three children were killed, and 10 others — eight of whom were children — were injured in the attack.

Axel Rudakubana was detained and charged with three counts of murder, 10 counts of attempted murder, and possession of a bladed article.

In the days following the attack, crowds gathered to demonstrate outside the mosque in Liverpool after misinformation was spread online about the knife attack suspect.

Imam Adam Kelwick described how he approached protesters outside the mosque once tensions had eased, offering food, handshakes, and conversations.

Photographs of the peaceful exchanges, which included sharing food and even hugs, went viral, symbolizing a moment of reconciliation.

After receiving the Most Impactful Imam accolade at the British Beacon Mosque Awards, Kelwick said: “It wasn’t just about me. I’m dedicating this award to the people of Liverpool, who really came together during difficult times.”

He added: “Some of the most vocal protesters, after everyone else had gone, came inside the mosque for a little tour.”

The imam praised Liverpool’s residents for their unity.

“For those who knew better than to blame a whole religion for the evil actions of one person, for those who came to defend our mosque, and even for those who protested but later reflected and opened their hearts,” he said.

Kelwick, also a humanitarian aid worker and long-time volunteer, expressed gratitude for the award, which recognizes the contributions of mosques and leaders across the UK.


India mosque survey sparks clashes, two dead

Armed police personnel stand guard following religious violence near the Shahi Jama Masjid in Sambhal on November 24, 2024. AFP
Updated 24 November 2024
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India mosque survey sparks clashes, two dead

  • Hindu nationalist activists were emboldened earlier this year when Modi inaugurated a grand new Hindu temple in Ayodhya, built on grounds once home to Babri mosque

LUCKNOW: Indian Muslim protesters clashed with police Sunday with at least two people killed in riots sparked by a survey investigating if a 17th-century mosque was built on a Hindu temple.
“Two persons were confirmed dead,” Pawan Kumar, a police officer in Sambhal in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, told AFP, adding that 16 police officers were “seriously injured” during the clashes.
The Press Trust of India news agency quoted officials saying three people had died.
Hindu activist groups have laid claim to several mosques they say were built over Hindu temples during the Muslim Mughal empire centuries ago.
Street battles broke out when a team of surveyors entered the Shahi Jama Masjid in Sambhal on orders from a local court, after a petition from a Hindu priest claiming it was built on the site of a Hindu temple.
Protesters on Sunday hurled rocks at police, who fired tear gas canisters to clear the crowd.
Hindu nationalist activists were emboldened earlier this year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated a grand new Hindu temple in the northern city of Ayodhya, built on grounds once home to the centuries-old Babri mosque.
That mosque was torn down in 1992 in a campaign spearheaded by members of Modi’s party, sparking sectarian riots that killed 2,000 people nationwide, most of them Muslims.
Some Hindu campaigners see an ideological patron in Modi.
Calls for India to more closely align the country’s officially secular political system with its majority Hindu faith have rapidly grown louder since Modi was swept to office in 2014, making the country’s roughly 210-million-strong Muslim minority increasingly anxious about their future.


Man in critical condition after stabbing on London’s Westminster Bridge

Updated 24 November 2024
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Man in critical condition after stabbing on London’s Westminster Bridge

  • Authorities have said that the incident is not being treated as terrorism-related

LONDON: A man is in critical condition after being stabbed during a reported fight on Westminster Bridge in central London, the Metropolitan Police confirmed on Sunday.

Emergency services, including the London Ambulance Service and an air ambulance, were called to the scene at about 10:45 UK time and an injured man was rushed to hospital for treatment.

A London London Ambulance Service spokesperson said: “We were called today (Sunday) at 10.46 a.m. to reports of an incident on Westminster Bridge, SW1.

“We sent a number of resources including ambulance crews, an advanced paramedic, an incident response officer and London’s air ambulance.

“We treated a man at the scene before taking him to hospital,” they added.

Three individuals have been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder, while a fourth has been detained for affray, the BBC reported.

Two of the arrested suspects sustained minor facial injuries and were also taken to hospital, according to police.

Authorities have said that the incident is not being treated as terrorism-related.

In March 2017, Briton Khalid Masood drove a car into pedestrians who were walking on the pavement along Westminster Bridge and Bridge Street, injuring more than 50 people, four of them fatally, before killing an unarmed police officer in the grounds of the Palace of Westminster.

He was then shot by an armed police officer, and died at the scene.