Oil Updates — Crude steady while market eyes Fed rate decision

Brent futures inched up 1 cent at $73.20 a barrel at 7:20 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1 cent to $70.08 a barrel. Shutterstock
Short Url
Updated 18 December 2024
Follow

Oil Updates — Crude steady while market eyes Fed rate decision

SINGAPORE: Oil prices traded in a narrow range early on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of an expected interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve while weighing up the potential supply impact of tighter sanctions on Russia.

Brent futures inched up 1 cent at $73.20 a barrel at 7:20 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1 cent to $70.08 a barrel.

The market is watching out for clues on interest rate moves for 2025 following the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting, which ends later on Wednesday, analysts said.

“Additional sanctions from the West may limit some losses in today’s session, but a cautious tone persists in the lead-up to the FOMC meeting,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

“Looking ahead, oil prices are likely to remain constrained within their current range, with subdued price action expected to persist through the end of the year,” Yeap added.

The Fed on Wednesday is widely expected to cut interest rates for the third time since its policy easing cycle began.

“Projections for rate cuts in 2025 are being second-guessed, especially with Trump planning a comeback on January 20,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst with Phillip Nova.

“There is a prevailing narrative that Trump’s policies may lead to inflation, which, coupled with concerns about potential interference with the Federal Reserve’s autonomy, is causing oil investors to remain cautious,” she added.

Lower rates decrease borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Meanwhile, the EU on Tuesday adopted a 15th package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, adding an additional 33 vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet used for transporting crude or petroleum products. Britain also sanctioned 20 ships for carrying illicit Russian oil.

The fresh sanctions could stoke further oil price volatility, though they have not succeeded in shutting Russia out of the global oil trade.

In the US, American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday showed that crude stocks fell by 4.69 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 13, a source said. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.45 million barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 744,000 barrels, according to the source.

Analysts projected US energy firms pulled about 1.6 million barrels of crude from storage during the week ended Dec. 13, according to a Reuters poll on Tuesday.

The US Energy Information Administration will release its oil storage data on Wednesday. 


GCC debt capital market hits $1tn, poised for continued growth: Fitch Ratings

Updated 43 sec ago
Follow

GCC debt capital market hits $1tn, poised for continued growth: Fitch Ratings

  • Saudi Arabia leads the region followed by the UAE and Qatar

RIYADH: The debt capital market in the Gulf Cooperation Council region has surpassed the $1 trillion mark in outstanding debt as of November, fueled by strong oil revenues, according to a recent analysis.

Fitch Ratings’ latest report highlights the growth trajectory of the GCC’s DCM, with expectations that it will remain one of the largest issuers of emerging-market dollar-denominated debt in 2025 and 2026.

The DCM refers to markets where securities like bonds and promissory notes are traded, offering governments and companies a means of securing long-term funding.

Saudi Arabia leads the region’s DCM, followed by the UAE and Qatar. In September, Fitch projected that the Kingdom’s DCM would exceed $500 billion in outstanding debt, driven by the financing needs for mega-projects under the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 and its broader economic diversification strategy.

Bashar Al-Natoor, global head of Islamic Finance at Fitch Ratings, noted that the DCM had grown by 11 percent year on year, reaching the $1 trillion milestone by the end of November 2024. Of this, approximately 40 percent is in the form of sukuk.

“The market is set for further expansion in 2025, driven by the need to finance government initiatives, maturing debt, fiscal deficits, diversification efforts, and ongoing regulatory reforms,” Al-Natoor explained. “We rate about 70 percent of GCC US dollar sukuk, of which 81 percent are investment-grade, with no defaults.”

The report also forecasts that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by 125 basis points to 3.5 percent by the fourth quarter of 2025. This is expected to prompt most GCC central banks to follow suit, creating a more favorable funding environment.

However, Fitch warned that ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East could hinder the region’s DCM growth. “While four out of six GCC sovereigns maintain investment-grade ratings with stable outlooks, any escalation in regional conflicts could pose risks,” the agency stated.

Fitch also flagged potential risks related to Sharia compliance, particularly concerning AAOIFI Standard 62, which governs the structure of Islamic finance transactions. The guidelines cover a range of issues, including Shariah-compliant issuance requirements, asset backing, ownership transfers, investment structures, and trading procedures.

The DCM landscape in the GCC remains uneven. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE boast the most developed markets, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman follow, with Kuwait having the least mature market. Kuwait is reportedly working on updating its liquidity law to facilitate borrowing in capital markets, though the timeline for this reform remains unclear.


Middle East and Africa region among smallest fallers as global deal activity drops 8.7% YoY

Updated 30 min 59 sec ago
Follow

Middle East and Africa region among smallest fallers as global deal activity drops 8.7% YoY

RIYADH: Transactions in mergers and acquisitions, private equity, and venture financing fell during the first 11 months of the year, with the Middle East and Africa experiencing the smallest decline in deal activity.

According to a new report from GlobalData, while worldwide deal volume dropped 8.7 percent year-on-year to 45,921 transactions compared to 50,308 during the same period in 2023, the Middle East and Africa region saw a relatively modest 5 percent decline. 

This contrasts with sharper decreases in regions such as North America and South and Central America, highlighting the Middle East and Africa’s comparative stability amid broader global challenges. 

Meanwhile, mergers and acquisitions and private equity transactions experienced smaller declines of 2.8 percent and 3 percent, respectively. 

Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData, attributed the overall decline in global deal activity to a steep drop in venture financing, which fell 18.7 percent year-on-year.

“Even though all deal types experienced decline, the overall setback was primarily driven by a massive fall in the number of venture financing deals,” Bose said. 

The broader global slowdown in deal activity was felt across major markets. North America, which accounted for approximately 40 percent of worldwide deals, saw a significant 12.5 percent decline in overall deal activity, contributing heavily to the international contraction. 

Europe recorded an 8.8 percent decline, while Asia-Pacific and South and Central America saw decreases of 3.6 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively. 

The subdued environment extended to several major markets globally. Among the hardest-hit countries, China and France experienced year-on-year declines of 21.9 percent and 21 percent, respectively. 

The US, the largest single market for deals, saw an 11.7 percent drop, while Canada and Germany recorded declines of 18.9 percent and 12.1 percent, respectively. 

Other countries reporting notable decreases included Italy with 6.8 percent, the Netherlands with 13.8 percent, and Spain with 14.2 percent, as well as Sweden with 9.7 percent, and Singapore with 15 percent. 

In the travel and tourism sector specifically, a total of 649 deals were announced globally between January and November, representing a 5.9 percent year-on-year decline compared to 690 deals in the same period of 2023. 

While the Middle East and Africa saw an 18.2 percent drop in deal volume in the sector, North America registered a steeper decline of 31 percent. 

South and Central America followed with a 20 percent decrease, and Asia-Pacific experienced a smaller drop of 2.3 percent. 

In contrast, Europe stood out as the only region to record growth, with deal volume increasing by 15.9 percent during the same period. 

Considering regional conflicts such as the changes in Syria’s regime, the conflict in Yemen, and Israel’s war on Lebanon and Palestine, the 18.2 percent drop in travel and tourism deal volume in the Middle East and Africa is relatively moderate. 

This performance suggests resilience in the region’s travel and tourism sector, which continues to attract investment despite these significant challenges. 

“The travel and tourism sector deal activity showcased a mixed trend across the different deal types during the specified timeframe. And similarly, the trend across different regions and key markets remained a mixed bag during the review period,” Bose said.


Saudi Arabia, Turkiye explore construction sector partnerships in roundtable

Updated 49 min 49 sec ago
Follow

Saudi Arabia, Turkiye explore construction sector partnerships in roundtable

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Turkiye explored investment opportunities and partnerships in the construction sector during a roundtable, focusing on enhancing supply chains and fostering collaboration between public and private sectors. 

The event, led by Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih and joined by Minister of Municipalities and Housing Majid Al-Hogail, brought together key stakeholders from both nations, representing the public and private sectors.

This follows a significant rise in trade between the two countries, with the total volume reaching SR25.4 billion ($6.75 billion) in 2023, a 15.5 percent increase. Saudi exports amounted to SR15.6 billion, while Turkish imports to the Kingdom totaled SR9.8 billion. 

“We reviewed the significant investment and partnership opportunities between public and private sector institutions in both countries, as well as the development of supply chains in this vital sector,” said Al-Falih in a post on X, formerly Twitter. 

The meeting explored key investment opportunities, and discussed enhancing cooperation and localizing supply chains, according to a statement issued by the Ministry of Investment.  

The ministers were joined by senior representatives from some of the largest construction firms in both nations. 

Regarding the roundtable, the ministers emphasized the significant partnership opportunities between public and private sector institutions. They noted the strategic importance of strengthening supply chains to support the development of this essential sector.   

The meeting followed the Saudi-Turkish Business Forum held in Riyadh last week, where business groups from both nations explored export opportunities across multiple economic sectors. 

The forum, organized by the Federation of Saudi Chambers, witnessed the participation of a delegation from the Exporters Assembly, comprising 40 Turkish companies, along with several firms from the Kingdom. 

The event spotlighted opportunities for joint ventures in agriculture, food, and tourism, along with potential collaborations in advanced manufacturing, construction, and infrastructure.  Other key areas included technology, innovation, and logistics, the Saudi Press Agency reported.     

Also organized by the Foreign Economic Relations Board of Turkiye, the event attracted over 450 companies and several government agencies from both nations at the time.   

Last year, Turkiye’s exports totaled $255.8 billion, and the country aims to increase this figure to $400 billion by 2028, working closely with exporters to accelerate the growth of foreign trade.   


Saudi Arabia and Egypt ink supply chain deal to boost industrial ties

Updated 18 December 2024
Follow

Saudi Arabia and Egypt ink supply chain deal to boost industrial ties

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Falak Investment and Egypt-based Al-Tawakol For Steel Industries and Galvanization Co. have signed a supply chain cooperation agreement to strengthen the telecommunications infrastructure in the Kingdom. 

The deal was signed on the sidelines of Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef’s visit to the North African nation. 

The partnership will focus on the manufacturing and supply of telecommunications towers in the Kingdom, as well as boosting cooperation in steel industries, galvanization, and telecommunications infrastructure, according to a statement by the Egyptian government. 

The agreement will also provide a framework, allowing the North African firm to participate in government and public sector tenders in Saudi Arabia. 

The Kingdom and Egypt have long sustained strong business relations, with bilateral trade reaching $7.5 billion in the first nine months of this year, representing a 33.9 percent rise compared to the same period in 2023. 

During the visit, Alkhorayef visited Hassan Abdullah, governor of the Central Bank of Egypt, and discussed ways to enhance economic relationships between both nations. 

“I discussed with the Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt ways to enhance economic and trade cooperation between the Kingdom and Egypt. I also met with the head of the Egyptian Medicines Authority to discuss prospects for developing the pharmaceutical and vaccine industry and exchanging experiences,” wrote Alkhorayef on his X platform.

Alkhorayef met with Egypt’s Deputy Prime Minister for Industrial Development and Minister of Industry and Transport, Kamel Al-Wazir, to review potential avenues for boosting industrial cooperation between the two nations.

The Saudi minister also emphasized the vitality of a strong bilateral relationship with Egypt and said it would generate more job opportunities and strengthen respective economies.

During the meeting, Al-Wazir said that increasing collaboration with Arab nations is crucial for the Egypt’s sustainable development. 

The Egyptian minister also underscored the importance of establishing joint factories and logistics zones in Egypt and Saudi Arabia to propel industrial integration and boost trade volume.


Saudi hotel sector sees 10% spending growth despite overall POS dip: SAMA

Updated 18 December 2024
Follow

Saudi hotel sector sees 10% spending growth despite overall POS dip: SAMA

RIYADH: Spending in Saudi hotels saw a weekly rise of 10.4 percent between Dec. 8 and 14, reaching SR349.2 million ($92.9 million), according to official data.

The latest point-of-sale bulletin released by the Kingdom’s central bank, also known as SAMA, showed this was the only sector of the economy to record a positive change over the seven-day period.

It also witnessed growth in terms of transactions, surging 9.5 percent to reach 770,000.

Overall, the Kingdom’s POS data registered a weekly decrease of 9.7 percent to reach SR12.8 billion, down from SR14.2 billion the week before. The central bank’s figures showed that the education sector saw the largest drop at 44.4 percent to SR119.8 million. 

Spending on telecommunication followed, recording a 17.7 percent slide to SR114.2 million. 

Jewelry recorded a decline of 9.8 percent to come in at SR260 million, while expenditure on construction and building materials dipped by 6.2 percent to SR358.2 million.

Spending on food and beverages dropped by 15.6 percent to SR1.8 billion, claiming the second most significant share of the total POS value. Expenditure in restaurants and cafes claimed the biggest share, recording the smallest decline at 0.3 percent to SR1.9 billion.

Miscellaneous goods and services still accounted for the third largest POS share despite a 10.9 percent dip, reaching SR1.5 billion.

Spending in the leading three categories accounted for approximately 42 percent or SR5.3 billion of the week’s total value.

At 2.8 percent, the second smallest decrease occurred in gas stations, leading total payments to reach SR904.5 million. Expenditures on transportation decreased by 3.6 percent to SR712.7 million, claiming the third smallest downstick.

Geographically, Riyadh dominated POS transactions, representing around 35.1 percent of the total, with expenses in the capital reaching SR4.5 billion — an 8.5 percent decrease from the previous week. 

Jeddah followed with a 7.1 percent dip to SR1.7 billion, and Dammam came in third at SR640 million, down 11 percent.

Hail experienced the most significant dip in spending, decreasing 15.1 percent to SR199.1 million. Tabouk recorded a decline of 14.1 percent to SR241.4 million, while Abha dropped 12.9 percent to SR145 million.

Hail and Abha saw the largest transaction decreases, dipping 7.9 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively, to 3.6 million and 2.8 million transactions.