Trump ushers in an era of disruption

If there were any doubts that Donald Trump would be less disruptive in his second stint in power, they should have dissipated with his inauguration. Promising “a golden age of America” in his inaugural speech he announced a number of sweeping measures that are bound to kick up a domestic storm, deepen polarization in his country and unsettle the global community.

Three actions stand out among scores of executive orders issued on his first day in office. The first makes good on his election pledge of mass deportation of undocumented migrants for which he declared a national emergency on the US-Mexican border. This, Trump said, aims to stop illegal entry and “begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to where they came from.” Eleven million people could be affected by this move for which Trump will deploy the military for deportations and border controls. That this will face logistical, legal and financial hurdles did not deter Trump. Assailed in the US and beyond, Pope Francis called it “a disgrace.”

The second action concerns ending birthright citizenship guaranteed by a constitutional amendment that Trump argues has been “wrongly interpreted.” This executive order is already being challenged by dozens of Democratic-controlled states who call this a constitutional violation. The American Civil Liberties Union described it as “a reckless and ruthless repudiation of American values.” A period of intense litigation lies ahead with the case expected to land in the Supreme Court. 

The third action is what many commentators see as Trump’s act of vengeance against his enemies through an executive order, “Ending the Weaponization of the Federal Government.” This appears to take aim at officials in the Justice Department and intelligence agencies – members of the so-called ‘deep state’ whom Trump has long attacked for undermining him and wanting him jailed. In his inaugural speech he asserted “never again will the immense power of the state be weaponized to persecute political opponents.” His executive order calls on the attorney general and intelligence chiefs to investigate the previous administration’s conduct to determine any ‘political biases.’ This is designed to “correct past conduct” through “appropriate action.” The New York Times saw this executive order as setting “a road map for retribution.” 

It has sparked fears of a sweeping purge of the civil service with Trump seeking to remake a government free of his perceived enemies and those deemed obstacles to his controversial agenda. The Financial Times succinctly summed up its impact. “It could mark a new era for the US — and the way it is ruled, with favor and punishment dispensed according to the whims of a leader, not the judgments of career officials guided by the long-agreed rules of their institutions.” 

Disruption is also threatened in world affairs by several of Trump’s foreign policy pronouncements and plans. In fact, some of his statements before and during his inauguration indicate territorial expansionist aims and harken back to an era of 19th century US imperialism. He threatened to take over the Panama Canal and Greenland, if necessary by military force and turn Canada into the 51st state of the US. Trump issued an executive order to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. He vowed to “take back Panama” in his inaugural address, falsely accusing China of controlling it – an allegation the Panamanian president has repeatedly rejected. President Jose Raul Mulino formally complained to the UN about this threat. “Be serious, be serious” is how he responded to questions about whether he was concerned the US would invade his country.

These actions delivered another blow to multilateralism that has already been under stress in the past decade or so from unilateral actions by the US and other major and regional powers.

Maleeha Lodhi

In pursuit of Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, another executive order directed US withdrawal from the Paris climate accord and repeal policies related to the agreement. This marked a major setback to international efforts to curb greenhouse gases and deal with global warming. He also did this in 2017 during his first term but the US under president Joe Biden rejoined the accord in 2021. This time it was accompanied by Trump’s decision to promote fossil fuels by increased oil and gas drilling and abandoning climate policies including support for renewable energy and incentives for electric vehicles. Billions of dollars of funding for green infrastructure projects was suspended. “Climate extremism” Trump announced disingenuously, “has exploded inflation and overburdened businesses with regulations.” 

Withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO) was another step ordered by Trump. Again, the grounds cited were disingenuous – among these ” the organization’s mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and other global health crises and its failure to adopt urgently needed reforms.” In response, a statement from the WHO recalled the organization had “saved countless lives and protected Americans and all people from health threats.” It also recalled it had in recent years carried out “the largest set of reforms in its history.”

These actions delivered another blow to multilateralism that has already been under stress in the past decade or so from unilateral actions by the US and other major and regional powers. Trump has no patience with multilateral bodies. His ‘America First’ policy runs counter to the belief in multilateralism. 

Perhaps the most disruptive action threatened by Trump in the global arena is imposing higher tariffs on imports from China and countries that have a trade surplus with the US, including allies. This has raised the spectre of escalation in the trade war that can seriously destabilize the global economy. Although his initial flurry of executive orders did not include decisions on tariffs, they are on the anvil with a presidential memo calling for remedial actions for unfair trade practices and identification of “currency manipulators.” Moreover, his plans to establish an External Revenue Service shows his mistaken belief that only other countries will be affected by increased tariffs. In reality the American consumer will also be burdened by way of more inflation. Moreover, his move to impose a tariff war will be met by retaliatory actions by China and other trading partners. 

Both on the domestic and international fronts, Trump’s policies promise an era of disruption. Unsettling as it is for the world, Americans will have more to be concerned about at the direction Trump is taking their country.

- Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. She posts on X with @LodhiMaleeha