The role of Egypt in Gaza ‘the day after’

The Gaza ceasefire agreement is a pivotal moment for Egypt, which played a central role as a mediator. Egypt now faces the dual challenge of consolidating and sustaining peace while shaping Gaza’s post-conflict future. The ceasefire is also an opportunity for Egypt to influence the trajectory of Palestinian reconciliation and the establishment of a unified government there.

Egypt’s relationship with Gaza is governed by several realities. Among these is that Gaza falls within Egypt’s immediate and primary national security sphere, so, Egypt’s actions there are characterized by seriousness and close attention. The Cairo International Peace Conference, attended by representatives from 34 countries just two weeks after the start of the Israeli war on Gaza in October 2023, is testament to that commitment.

Egypt has been present at every stage of the arduous and highly complex negotiations for the ceasefire. Achieving consensus required tremendous effort. It is worth recalling that the first truce was reached on Nov. 24, 2023, more than 13 months ago, but lasted only a few days despite notable achievements such as an exchange of prisoners, a temporary cessation of hostilities, and increased humanitarian aid.

Egypt was the first country to propose a comprehensive vision not only for achieving a ceasefire but also for addressing Gaza’s broader issues. This vision was based on a phased and gradual approach, acknowledging the complexity of the situation. It proposed three stages of deescalation, with specific steps in each phase, including halting hostilities, exchanging prisoners, delivering aid, and eventually initiating reconstruction efforts.

The most critical aspect lies in the so-called “day after” the war ends, and how to address five key issues that must be urgently tackled. These are the political question of who governs Gaza, the security and military question of securing the territory, the economic and living conditions related to reconstruction, the social consequences of the war, and the future status of Hamas and other resistance factions. These are highly complex issues requiring immediate and acceptable solutions.

A ceasefire is merely an initial phase that paves the way for the more challenging stage, requiring the combined efforts of Palestinian, regional, and international stakeholders to prevent the recurrence of such wars. The only viable pathway is to initiate political negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians to agree on a two-state solution. This should culminate in the establishment of an independent Palestinian state living in peace, security, and stability alongside Israel. Without this permanent solution, further wars can be expected in the future, whether in Gaza or the West Bank, where the Israeli government is likely to pursue policies to impose sovereignty, especially during US President Donald Trump’s tenure.

The situation following the ceasefire is characterized by several critical aspects. The first is the humanitarian crisis. Gaza’s infrastructure has been severely damaged, leaving millions in urgent need of assistance. Egypt plays a crucial role in facilitating humanitarian aid through the Rafah crossing, ensuring the provision of food, medicine, and reconstruction materials.

The second aspect concerns governance. Hamas had been in complete control of Gaza, while the Palestinian Authority governed the West Bank. This political division is a significant challenge, rooted in political, ideological, and regional disputes. Egypt holds many opportunities to support reconciliation efforts between the two sides. It can host reconciliation talks and provide guarantees to both parties, encouraging them to work toward a unified administration in Gaza. Egypt can also employ diplomatic pressure, economic incentives, and partnerships with regional powers such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Egypt must address this division to foster cooperation among competing factions, ensuring the success of current and future plans for the postwar phase.

The third aspect is the likelihood that some parties in Palestine will use the ceasefire agreement to draw international attention to the reconstruction and stabilization of Gaza. Egypt can leverage this interest to rally global support for a long-term resolution to the Palestinian crisis.

Egypt can push for the unification of Gaza and the West Bank under a single Palestinian government, which would help restore the legitimacy of Palestinian leadership, a legitimacy that has been significantly eroded globally and regionally.

Abdellatif El-Menawy

Since peace in Gaza remains fragile, ensuring border security and preventing a resurgence of hostilities remain urgent priorities for Egypt.

Egypt faces several challenges in its efforts to play a significant role in Gaza. Chief among these is the resistance to institution-building in Gaza. Egypt can promote the establishment of neutral committees or entities to manage reconstruction efforts while ensuring transparency and accountability. Donors and international organizations can also be engaged in these initiatives under Egyptian coordination.

Egypt can push for the unification of Gaza and the West Bank under a single Palestinian government, which would help restore the legitimacy of Palestinian leadership, a legitimacy that has been significantly eroded globally and regionally.

However, significant obstacles may hinder Egypt’s efforts. These include Hamas’s resistance to the Palestinian Authority’s control. Hamas may resist relinquishing its pre-war control over Gaza, fearing the loss of political influence.

Regional and international dynamics may also complicate matters, as Israeli policies and responses to Egypt’s efforts, especially concerning border security and the movement of goods and people, could present challenges.

Another challenge stems from the web of interests of regional players such as Iran and Turkiye, who may be deeply concerned about Egypt’s growing influence in Gaza.

Economic constraints are another obstacle, as Egypt is still recovering from a major economic crisis caused by the pandemic and recent wars. These economic challenges may limit Egypt’s ability to provide financial and logistical support to Gaza.

In the past, discussions centered on the dream of refugees returning to their lands after the Nakba of 1948 and the Arab defeat in 1967. Today, the dream has shifted to facilitating a new return following the genocidal war waged by Israel on Gaza. Egypt can play a significant role in facilitating the return of Palestinians, whether across its borders or through its regional partners.

Another dream is the return of the Palestinian Authority to power and control, particularly over Gaza, after an absence of nearly two decades.

This depends on several factors. The first is robust diplomatic engagement. Egypt must maintain open channels of communication with all stakeholders, including Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, Israel, and international actors. Balanced diplomacy is essential for building trust and fostering agreement.

The second factor is the possession of a long-term vision. Short-term solutions will not suffice. Egypt must advocate a comprehensive peace plan that addresses the root causes of the Palestinian crisis, including the Israeli occupation and the Gaza blockade.

The third factor is leveraging regional partnerships. Regional allies can provide financial assistance and political support for Egyptian initiatives in Gaza.

Certainly, security concerns remain a critical factor for ensuring the success of Egypt’s mission. Without addressing these concerns, renewed violence could undermine Egyptian efforts. Coordination with international peacekeeping forces may be necessary to maintain stability.

The ceasefire agreement in Gaza is the beginning of a crucial phase for Egyptian regional diplomacy. Despite significant challenges, Egypt’s geographical position and mediating role give it a unique opportunity to shape Gaza’s future. Success depends on its ability to enhance Palestinian unity, secure international support, and address the region’s humanitarian and security needs. If Egypt can navigate these complexities, it may emerge as a key architect of peace and stability in the Middle East.

• Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy has covered conflicts worldwide. X: @ALMenawy