Oil Updates — crude wavers as markets await clarity on Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico

Brent crude futures were down 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $76.51 a barrel by 7:11 a.m. Saudi time.
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Updated 30 January 2025
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Oil Updates — crude wavers as markets await clarity on Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico

TOKYO: Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as markets braced for threatened tariffs by US President Donald Trump on Mexico and Canada, the two largest suppliers of crude oil to the US, and awaited a meeting of OPEC+ producers.

Brent crude futures were down 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $76.51 a barrel by 7:11 a.m. Saudi time. US crude futures were little changed at 2 cents up, or 0.03 percent, to $72.64. US crude futures had settled at their lowest price this year on Wednesday.

Trump still plans to make good on his promise to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday.

Trump’s nominee to run the Commerce Department, Howard Lutnick, said on Wednesday that Canada and Mexico can avoid the tariffs if they act swiftly to close their borders to fentanyl, while vowing to slow China’s advancement in artificial intelligence.

On the demand front, crude oil stockpiles in the US rose by 3.46 million barrels last week, roughly in line with analysts’ estimate for a rise of 3.19 million barrels, as winter storms that swept the country last week hit demand.

On the supply side, crude oil exports from Russia’s western ports in February are set to fall by 8 percent from the January plan as Moscow boosts refining, traders said and Reuters calculations showed, after the latest US sanctions squeezed crude exports.

Investors are also looking ahead to a ministerial meeting by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together called OPEC+, scheduled for Feb. 3.

The OPEC+ group of leading oil producers is set to discuss Trump’s efforts to raise US oil production and take a joint stance on the matter, Kazakhstan said on Wednesday. Russia is also a member of the OPEC+ group.

Trump has publicly called on OPEC to lower oil prices, saying doing so would end the conflict in Ukraine. He has also set up an agenda of maximizing the US oil and gas production, already the world’s largest.
However, analysts believe a price war between the US and OPEC+ is unlikely as it may hurt both.

“A price war with the US would involve OPEC+ producers maximizing their output to undercut prices and drive shale production into decline,” analysts at BMI, a Fitch Group division, said in a note.

They predict Brent crude oil prices may go down below $50 as OPEC+ can deploy over 5 million barrels of oil per day in its spare capacity, prompting a fall in the US shale oil production along the prices. 


Saudi Arabia’s NDMC eyes green bond issuances in 2025

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Saudi Arabia’s NDMC eyes green bond issuances in 2025

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Center is considering issuing green bonds in international markets after finalizing its green framework in 2024, a senior official said.

At the Capital Markets & the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia event, Muhannad Mufti, chief of portfolio management at NDMC, highlighted that the Kingdom has introduced key debt programs to ensure sustainable access to capital markets and strengthen the yield curve.

Mufti explained: “The NDMC launched the GMT program in 2016, which focused on international issuances. We also introduced a local sukuk program to help with price discovery and expand the yield curve, with maturities ranging from 7 to 30 years. Additionally, we launched the international sukuk program.”

He added, “In 2024, we finalized the green framework, and throughout this year, we are exploring opportunities to issue in the green market.”

Debt market evolution

Saudi Arabia's debt market has seen significant growth, with experts noting a surge in investor interest in debt instruments amid rising interest rates.

Mohammed Al-Bensaleh, head of debt financing at Al Rajhi Capital, emphasized the local debt capital market’s expansion, which has consistently outpaced the equity market in recent years.

“The local debt capital market has historically been larger than the equity market. Some corporates initially issued in the local capital market but later shifted focus to other funding sources for reasons such as process, currency requirements, cost, or flexibility,” Al-Bensaleh explained.

He pointed out that despite liquidity pressures, the loan market remains significantly larger than the capital market, creating opportunities for issuers.

“Especially in the current environment, we’re seeing more investors focusing on debt instruments as an investment avenue, which wasn’t the case just three years ago when interest rates were very low,” he added.

Mohammad Al-Faadhel, assistant deputy of financing at the Capital Market Authority, discussed the structured evolution of Saudi Arabia’s financing landscape and how the debt capital market is poised for further acceleration, especially following Vision 2030 reforms.

“I want to take a step back and look at how financing evolves. Typically, in other markets, it starts with bank loans, progresses to the equity market, then to bond markets, and eventually more complex instruments like derivatives and structured products,” Al-Faadhel said.

He highlighted the influence of Vision 2030 in transforming the Kingdom from a capital exporter to a market where credit outpaces deposits, creating an ideal environment for the debt market to grow.

“We haven’t left this to chance. Together with other stakeholders, we’ve proactively established the Sukuk and Development Capital Market Committee to remove obstacles and support the market’s growth,” he concluded.

Key challenges and future outlook

While Saudi Arabia’s debt market is rapidly maturing, several challenges remain. Al-Bensaleh highlighted three key obstacles: liquidity for government sukuk, expanding corporate debt issuances, and introducing securitization.

“To address liquidity for government sukuk, we’ve implemented several measures, including the introduction of a market-making framework by the exchange in January, the launch of the omnibus account structure in November, and the near completion of licensing an alternative trading system,” he explained.

On the corporate side, efforts are underway to simplify listing requirements and encourage broader participation.

“We’ve reduced some requirements by 50 percent without compromising investment protection. As a result, we’ve seen increased activity and expect a strong pipeline of approvals in 2025,” Al-Bensaleh added.

The push toward green and sustainable finance is another critical area, with regulatory bodies set to introduce new guidelines for green, social, and sustainability-linked bonds by the end of March.

Looking ahead, Al-Faadhel outlined the Kingdom’s ambitions for the debt market, aiming to increase the debt-to-bank loan ratio from the current 11 percent debt-to-89 percent bank loan split to the mid-20s within five years, and closer to G20 averages in the next decade.

“Currently, the split between bank loans and the debt capital market is far below G20 levels. In five years, we aim to move from 11 percent to the mid-20s, and hopefully, within 10 years, align closer with G20 averages. That’s our goal,” he concluded.

With strategic reforms, growing investor interest, and proactive regulatory bodies, Saudi Arabia’s debt market is set for substantial growth, positioning the Kingdom as a key player in regional and global capital markets.


Global energy leaders convene in Riyadh for 15th tripartite forum on energy outlooks

Updated 8 min ago
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Global energy leaders convene in Riyadh for 15th tripartite forum on energy outlooks

RIYADH: Dialogue and collaboration are essential for sustainable market stability, benefiting consumers and producers and supporting the global economy, according to OPEC’s secretary general.

These remarks were made during the 15th International Energy Agency-International Energy Forum-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks, held on Feb. 19 at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center in Riyadh, where global leaders, policymakers, and industry experts gathered to discuss critical developments in the sector.

Held under the patronage of Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Abdulaziz bin Salman, the annual symposium has established itself as a key platform for fostering producer-consumer dialogue.

Haitham Al-Ghais, secretary general of OPEC, expressed his gratitude to the Kingdom’s energy minister for his continued support, emphasizing the importance of global energy cooperation. 

The symposium featured in-depth discussions on pressing energy challenges, including shifting geopolitical and economic dynamics, market volatility, and the widening gap between varying energy outlooks. 

Experts from leading organizations examined the findings of the IEA, OPEC, and EIA energy outlook reports, analyzing their implications for energy security, market stability, and sustainability. 

A key focus of the discussions was the medium-term impact of the energy transition, with panelists assessing the opportunities and risks associated with shifting global energy consumption patterns, the integration of renewables, and the increasing demand for critical raw materials.  

The event also addressed long-term energy perspectives, exploring how producers and consumers can balance technological advancements with their shared dependencies. 

Industry leaders debated strategies for scaling carbon abatement solutions and advancing clean initiatives while maintaining energy security and economic stability. 

The discussions underscored the importance of continued investment in traditional and emerging energy sources to ensure an orderly and equitable transition.  

As part of a broader collaboration initiated under the Cancun Declaration of 2010, the symposium serves as a critical forum for aligning international strategies. 

This year’s event builds on a tradition of collaboration among the three organizations established under the 2010 Cancun Declaration. It aims to address key energy challenges, foster producer-consumer dialogue, and support global energy stability. 

The event follows the success of the 14th edition, which took place in Riyadh on Feb. 21, 2024, and focused on the importance of dialogue amid market volatility.


Saudi CMA to boost market growth with SPACs, enhanced direct listings

Updated 45 min 47 sec ago
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Saudi CMA to boost market growth with SPACs, enhanced direct listings

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority is working on the introduction of special-purpose acquisition companies in the capital market to streamline the listing process, according to a senior CMA executive.

The authority is also aiming to improve the framework for direct listings, which may include offerings on the main market, and plans to expand the investor base in the parallel market to boost supply, according to Fahad bin Hamdan, assistant deputy for financing and investment at the CMA.

In his remarks at a conference organized as part of the Capital Markets Forum in Riyadh, he emphasized that SPACs would offer companies an alternative path to going public, simplifying the traditional listing process and encouraging more market participation.

Furthermore, the regulator is working alongside the Kingdom’s Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority to eliminate withholding tax on all listed securities, a step expected to draw more foreign investment.

“One of the key initiatives the CMA is focusing on is the introduction of SPACs in the capital market, which will simplify the stock listing process. Additionally, we are enhancing the direct listing framework, potentially including direct listings in the main market,” said Hamdan.

He continued: “We also aim to expand the investor base in Nomu to increase supply. In collaboration with  Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority, we are working to eliminate the withholding tax on all listed securities, a move that will help attract more foreign investment into the market.”

Streamlining IPO process

Hamdan also mentioned that the CMA may refine its initial public offering process to support Tadawul in making issuances and listings more accessible and appealing across various industries.

This initiative has already led to a 70 percent increase in listed stocks over the past four years, bringing the total to nearly 350 across both the main market and Nomu.

“If we look back four years, we had only five securities or stocks. Today, we have nearly 106 stocks, which reflects how much the market has grown and become more diverse, attracting investors from various sectors,” Hamdan explained.

He highlighted ongoing efforts in the debt market, noting that it has become a significant financing channel for both the public and private sectors.

The CMA has collaborated with key stakeholders, including the Saudi Central Bank, the National Debt Management Center, and Tadawul, to implement initiatives aimed at deepening the market.

Among the key actions taken, the CMA has simplified the offering documents for public debt issuances, allowed direct listing of privately placed debt instruments, and opened the debt market to international depository centers.

Foreign investor engagement has also broadened, attracting a diverse range of participants. To further encourage secondary market activity, the CMA eliminated commission fees on bond transactions, lowering costs and attracting more investors and issuers.

Debt issuances

In addition, the authority is working with ZATCA to introduce sukuk structures with zero tax burdens, removing a significant obstacle for local investors in a low-interest environment.

These reforms have had a notable impact, with the number of debt issuances doubling over the past three years, rising from 30 to 60.

According to Hamdan, the investor base in the debt market has expanded from 500 to over 50,000 participants. The number of transactions in the sukuk and debt market also surged by 893 percent from 2021 to 2023, reflecting the broader engagement from both issuers and investors.

“These amendments also helped reduce the concentration of banks’ ownership of debt instruments. Previously, banks held around 60 percent of total debt,” the official said.

He added: “Now, that figure has dropped to below 45 percent as investment companies, mutual funds, and retail investors have increased their participation.”

The CMA remains dedicated to further deepening the market in collaboration with its partners. In recent years, it has worked with Tadawul to introduce a market-making framework, initially applied to select stocks, aimed at enhancing liquidity and narrowing bid-ask spreads.

This framework is continually evolving to cover a broader range of asset classes, ultimately improving overall market efficiency.

Exchange-traded funds

The Saudi Exchange-Traded Funds market has also experienced substantial growth. Since its launch in 2010 with three ETFs focused on local equities, the sector has expanded to include sukuk ETFs for fixed-income exposure and gold ETFs.

In 2022, there were eight ETFs with a total of SR1.5 billion in assets under management. By 2023, this number had increased to 11 ETFs, with AUM rising to SR6.5 billion.

“Yet, we believe the ETF sector still has room for development and can play a bigger role in market transformation,” Hamdan said.

He continued: “This year, the CMA will conduct a full analysis of the ETF ecosystem to explore new strategies, such as active ETFs, and improve the efficiency of basket creation and liquidity enhancement mechanisms.”

The CMA is also focused on enhancing data dissemination and introducing measures such as short selling and securities lending for ETFs, which will make the market more attractive to both local and international investors.

Hamdan highlighted the growing interest from foreign investors, noting that several ETFs listed in other markets are now investing in Saudi equities.

Foreign investment

The CMA has made significant strides in opening the Kingdom’s market to foreign investors, a process that began two decades ago with the introduction of direct access for foreign residents. In 2015, the Qualified Foreign Investor regime was launched, marking a key milestone in the liberalization of Saudi markets. Since then, ongoing regulatory changes have further eased foreign access and reduced restrictions.

“These efforts have led to a fivefold increase in the number of QFIs over the past four years. By the end of 2023, QFI ownership in the Saudi market had surged to SR422 billion, a remarkable 2,000 percent increase over the past four years,” Hamdan said.

With these continued regulatory advancements, Saudi Arabia’s capital market is set for further growth, diversification, and deeper global integration, all in line with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 objectives.


Saudi Arabia shortlists 30 firms for 22 quarry licenses in Eastern Province, Tabuk

Updated 48 min 39 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia shortlists 30 firms for 22 quarry licenses in Eastern Province, Tabuk

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia has shortlisted 30 companies for 22 mining licenses to extract sand and gravel in the Eastern Province and Tabuk, advancing its mining sector expansion and economic diversification. 

The Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources said the permits cover Northwest Salwa Western Complex, Al-Masna Crushers Complex, and South Wadi Amq Complex. 

The process, which received 49 applications, marks another step in Saudi Arabia’s push to develop mining as a third pillar of its industrial base, alongside oil and petrochemicals, with efforts ongoing to tap into the Kingdom’s estimated $2.5 trillion of mineral wealth. 

In the Eastern Province, three companies — Saleh Abdul Aziz Al Rashid and Sons Co., Sana Al Sharqiya Contracting Co., and Asas Al Muasim Contracting Co. — have been prequalified for sand extraction at Northwest Salwa Western Complex.

For gravel mining at Al-Masna Crushers Complex, northeast of Hafar Al-Batin, the contenders include Saleh Abdul Aziz Al Rashid and Sons Co., Sana Al Sharqiya Contracting Co., and Al-Yamamah Co. for Commercial Works and Contracting.

Meanwhile, 24 companies will compete for gravel extraction rights at South Wadi Amq Complex in Tabuk, including Tabuk Modern Contracting Co., Mega Co., and Suleiman bin Saleh Al Muhailib Mining Co.

In December, the Taadeen platform introduced a competitive bidding process to secure a stable domestic supply of essential construction materials.

A month earlier, the ministry awarded 11 mining exploration permits covering 850 sq. km across Riyadh, Makkah, and Asir, with one national company and five alliances of 10 local and international firms securing rights.

The ministry stressed that these efforts are crucial to maximizing the value of Saudi Arabia’s mineral resources and establishing mining as a key pillar of the Kingdom’s economic future.

The news of the shortlist came in the same week as it was announced nearly SR29 billion ($7.7 billion) in investments is being directed toward the city of Wa’ad Al-Shamal as it aims to become a major hub for the Kingdom’s mining industry.

The vast majority of the funding — SR28 billion — is for the launch of Ma’aden’s Phosphate 3 project, backed by the Shareek program.

This initiative is set to increase Saudi Arabia’s phosphate production capacity to 9 million tonnes annually, building upon the existing Phosphate 1 and Phosphate 2 projects, which each produce 3 million tonnes. 


Aramco expands global retail network with 25% stake in Philippines’ Unioil

Updated 19 February 2025
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Aramco expands global retail network with 25% stake in Philippines’ Unioil

  • Deal aims to capitalize on the expected growth of the high-value fuels market in the Philippines

RIYADH: Saudi oil giant Aramco has signed definitive agreements to acquire a 25 percent equity stake in Unioil Petroleum Philippines, marking its entry into the Southeast Asian nation’s retail fuel market as part of a broader global expansion strategy. 
The deal, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions, is aimed at capitalizing on the expected growth of the high-value fuels market in the Philippines, the company said in a press release.  
It also advances Aramco’s downstream expansion by seeking additional outlets for its refined products. The investment follows similar acquisitions in Chile and Pakistan, reinforcing the company’s push to strengthen its retail network in key markets. 
“This investment represents another step forward in our global strategy to expand Aramco’s retail network, and we look forward to introducing Aramco’s high-quality products and services to customers in the Philippines,” said Yasser Mufti, Aramco’s executive vice president of products and customers. 
“Our international expansion aims to capture additional value and enhance our participation in vibrant economies, in collaboration with established partners. We are delighted to embark on the next stage of this journey with Unioil, a dynamic player in the fast-growing Philippines fuels market,” he added. 
Founded in 1966, Unioil operates 165 retail stations and four storage terminals across the Philippines. 
Upon completion of the deal, Aramco plans to extend its brand, introduce competitive retail offerings, and supply Valvoline-branded lubricants to select Unioil stations. 
The expansion underscores Aramco’s efforts to diversify its downstream footprint and capitalize on emerging market opportunities. The company has been expanding its global reach not just through acquisitions but also by influencing crude pricing trends. 
Aramco recently raised its official selling prices for Asian buyers to the highest levels in more than a year, citing rising demand from China and India, as well as supply disruptions linked to US sanctions on Russian oil. The price adjustments highlight Aramco’s ability to navigate shifting market dynamics while maintaining its dominance in crude supply. 
With recent investments in Chile, Pakistan, and now the Philippines, Aramco is pushing deeper into international retail markets, securing outlets for refined products and strengthening its presence in high-growth economies.