A Turkey-Russia entente

Beware of czars bearing gifts. It is sound advice for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as he tries to leverage his rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin in his relations with the West.
Erdogan’s meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg this month was ostensibly focused on burying the hatchet after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near its border with Syria last year. But the Kremlin seems to view the visit as an opportunity to convince Erdogan to “turn east” and join Russia, as well as China and the countries of Central Asia, in a kind of brotherhood. The question is whether Erdogan actually plans to take up the offer.
Erdogan certainly put on a show with Putin, promising friendship and cooperation. In doing so, he sent his western allies a powerful message: “I don’t need you.” Putin, by contrast, was the first world leader to call for support for Erdogan’s government after the coup, which perhaps explains why Russia was Erdogan’s first destination after the dust had settled.
To be sure, Erdogan may simply have been seizing an ideal opportunity to boost Turkey’s own security and that of the region. After all, it is in nobody’s interest — least of all NATO’s — to have Turkey and Russia at each other’s throats.
But it would be surprising if Erdoğan had no desire to make his NATO allies nervous. And, in that endeavor, he succeeded. At the very least, the EU needs Turkey to continue, according to the deal struck in March, to stem the flow of refugees to its borders; any indication that Erdogan may be turning against Europe is thus a cause for serious concern.
There may, however, be more to Erdogan’s rapprochement with Putin. If he is genuinely seeking to deepen Turkey’s relationship with Russia, at the expense of its ties with the EU and the US, as some warn, this would amount to a fundamental geopolitical realignment. But this seems unlikely.
The Kremlin has a strong interest in the deterioration of Turkey’s relations with its western partners. Putin has been vocal about his opposition to NATO policies — particularly its role in countries bordering Russia. Another reason why Russia is keen to extend the hand of friendship to Turkey is the ongoing conflict in Syria, in which the Kremlin has intervened militarily to safeguard Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime. Putin needs a win in Syria — and an escape route. To that end, he needs to move Erdogan into his camp.
But the case for an eastern pivot by Turkey is far weaker. True, Turkey needs Russian tourists to bolster its distressed economy. But whatever economic benefits Russia can offer are dwarfed by those provided by the EU — a critical trade and business partner that has been indispensable in driving Turkey’s modernization. It is clear that, while a better relationship with Russia can benefit Turkey, Erdogan cannot afford to abandon his country’s ties with the West.
But while it would be a strategic error for Erdogan to enter Putin’s orbit, plenty of leaders have made strategic errors before. That is why the next few months, when Turkey and the EU hash out contentious issues, are so critical.
Erdogan’s post-coup crackdown is far from the only source of tension between Turkey and the West, particularly the EU. Turkey insists that visa-free travel for Turkish citizens visiting the EU, promised by EU governments in January, should be delivered this year. But, with Turkey having so far failed to meet the agreed conditions, including overhauling its anti-terrorism legislation, that may not happen — an outcome made even more likely by the coup attempt. As a result, the migration deal concluded in March now hangs by a thread.
To chart a way forward, a sustained dialogue between the EU and Turkey is urgently needed. It is decision time for Erdogan. Either he renews his country’s commitment to a close partnership with the EU, with all of the prosperity that this would entail, or he continues to push Turkey toward a future of isolation, in which he would receive the occasional comforting phone call from the Kremlin — but little else. It’s not much of a choice. For the sake of Turkey’s citizens, one hopes that Erdogan sees that.
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The writer is a former Belgian prime minister. ©Project Syndicate