Focus: Risk on — amid caution

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Updated 18 May 2020
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Focus: Risk on — amid caution

What happened:
Global stock markets lost ground last week. Several big investors, like Stanley Druckenmiller, said stock markets were overvalued. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell presented a gloomy assessment of the US economy when he spoke at the Peterson Institute.
Investor legend Warren Buffet sold out of all of the four major US airlines a few weeks ago. He also sold most of his Goldman Sachs stake at the end of last week, which demonstrates a lack of confidence in markets.

Japan’s economy slid into recession with a 3.4 percent contraction during the first quarter.
The US requires any chipmaker using US technology to get a license if they want to sell to Huawei. This move will have a big impact on the global semiconductor supply chain and might force China to develop its own technology.
Jack Ma will be leaving the board of Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank. SoftBank’s Vision Fund lost $17.7 billion for the year. It had bet heavily on the sharing economy with investments in the likes of WeWorks and Uber, which were badly hit by the pandemic. SoftBank is also looking to buy back shares worth $5.7 billion and selling a significant part of its stake in T-Mobile US to Deutsche Telekom.
Ryanair reported full year revenues at 10.4 billion euros ($11.25 billion), up by 10 percent. Profit came in at 1 billion euros, up by 13 percent.The company said it would book a loss exceeding 200 million euros for the quarter ending March 31. The company shored up liquidity by taking out a loan worth £600 million ($728.84 million) backed by the UK government. Ryanair burned through 60 million euros in cash in April compared to 200 million in March despite 99 percent of its fleet remaining grounded. The company achieved cost cuts thanks to staff taking a 20 percent salary cut. Ryanair is envisaging cutting its headcount by 300, if cost savings cannot be achieved. Ryanair will resume operations at 50 percent in its second quarter (July-September) and CEO Michael O’Leary feels air travel will be markedly down for the remainder of the year. He has criticized the quarantine measures of governments as counterproductive and has also criticized direct subsidies to flag carriers in France, Italy and Germany as going contrary to European competition law. He feels that direct government subsidies, or equity stakes such as they are seen in several European countries and the US, will distort market forces and work against profitable players such as Ryanair. He is not against payroll support schemes or loan schemes, but calls the aforementioned subsidy schemes illegal. He has warned of the impact on ticket prices if Europe returns to the old “flag carrier” system.
Emirates announced that it may cut 30,000 jobs or 30 percent of its workforce, another indication of just how troubled the outlook is for air travel in the short to medium term.
First Abu Dhabi Bank is stepping away from the $700 million acquisition of Bank Audi’s Egyptian business.
Background:
What a difference a weekend makes. While the outlook was negative through last week, the bulls were out in force on Monday.

The mood change came on the back of a CBS “60 Minutes” interview with Powell. He admitted that the US would not make a full recovery until the end of 2021 and that a recovery was conditional on a vaccine. He still emphasized that there would be a full recovery, even if it took some time.
Powell foresees a couple more months of job losses and unemployment peaking at 20-25 percent, but expects the majority of unemployed workers to go back to work once the economy picks up. Powell emphasized that one should never bet against America and that the Fed would do whatever it took to support the economy. He again opposed negative interest rates in the US.
Powell has a point, because most governments and central banks acted swiftly with the right policy measures. We have a downturn but a depression is not a foregone conclusion. Depressions happen when policymakers take the wrong decisions during economic downturns, which was not the case here.
Markets in Asia were up on the day. European stocks rallied and S&P futures were markedly up.
Oil continued its three week rally which was mainly based on a markedly improved supply and demand picture owing to economies coming out of lockdown and the OPEC+ 9.7 million barrels per day (bdp) production cuts being supplemented by an additional 1.2 million bpd cut from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, as well as production having dropped markedly in the US, Canada and other non-OPEC+ producers.
The rise of the gold price to $1,763 an ounce by midday in Europe shows that investors want to have a buffer against negative interest rates, inflation and stock market downturns by allocating a part of their portfolios to the safe haven. The Swiss franc, another safe haven, is also markedly up.

Where we go from here:
This week’s top events:
Tuesday — Congress testimony by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Wednesday — publication of Fed statement.
Thursday — review of coronavirus measures by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Friday — opening of China’s National People’s Congress.

— Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources.
Twitter: @MeyerResources


Even with Lebanon truce deal, Israel will operate against Hezbollah — Netanyahu

Updated 2 min 43 sec ago
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Even with Lebanon truce deal, Israel will operate against Hezbollah — Netanyahu

  • Lebanon’s government has largely endorsed US truce proposal to end Israel-Hezbollah war
  • Israel insists any truce deal must guarantee no further Hezbollah presence in area bordering Israel

JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel will continue to operate militarily against the Iran-backed Lebanese armed movement Hezbollah even if a ceasefire deal is reached in Lebanon.
“The most important thing is not (the deal that) will be laid on paper,” Netanyahu told the Israeli parliament.
“We will be forced to ensure our security in the north (of Israel) and to systematically carry out operations against Hezbollah’s attacks... even after a ceasefire,” to keep the group from rebuilding, he said.
Netanyahu also said there was no evidence that Hezbollah would respect any ceasefire reached.
“We will not allow Hezbollah to return to the state it was in on October 6” 2023, the eve of the strike by its Palestinian ally Hamas into southern Israel, he said.
Hezbollah then began firing into northern Israel in support of Hamas, triggering exchanges with Israel that escalated into full-on war in late September this year.
Lebanon’s government has largely endorsed a US truce proposal to end the Israel-Hezbollah war and was preparing final comments before responding to Washington, a Lebanese official told AFP on Monday.
Israel insists that any truce deal must guarantee no further Hezbollah presence in the area bordering Israel.


Pakistani senate committee says Council of Islamic Ideology’s statement against VPNs ‘unreasonable’

Updated 23 min 3 sec ago
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Pakistani senate committee says Council of Islamic Ideology’s statement against VPNs ‘unreasonable’

  • Council of Islamic Ideology’s chairman last week said use of VPNs to access illegal content is impermissible
  • Senate Standing Committee on IT questions the legality of interior ministry’s letter banning use of VPNs

ISLAMABAD: The Senate Standing Committee on Information Technology this week criticized a recent statement by Pakistan’s top body of clerics against the use of virtual private networks (VPNs) as “unreasonable,” stressing that recent Internet disruptions had impacted the livelihoods of over 2.5 million freelancers in the country.
The Ministry of Interior, in a letter to the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (PTA) on Friday, directed the nationwide blocking of illegal VPNs, citing their use by militants for financial transactions and violence. The ministry also noted that VPNs were being used by Pakistanis to access pornographic websites and blasphemous content.
The Council of Islamic Ideology (CII), a constitutional advisory body that reviews laws to ensure they align with Islamic principles, also declared the usage of VPNs as “un-Islamic” in a statement after the development. CII Chairman Raghib Hussain Naeem said the state had the authority to prevent wrongdoing or actions that facilitate it, which included the blocking of VPNs. He said the use of VPNs with the intention to access illegal content or blocked websites is considered impermissible from an Islamic perspective.
A meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Information Technology on the recent Internet disruptions in Pakistan, chaired by Senator Palwasha Mohammad Zai Khan on Monday, criticized the CII’s statement against the use of VPNs.
“The Committee called the Islamic Ideological Council’s comments on the blockage of VPNs as unreasonable,” a press release shared by the Senate Secretariat Media Directorate said. It added that the committee humorously suggested the CII should also ban television as it displays “harmful content.”
“The Committee opined that nothing would be achieved by blocking the tools, and instead, the government should focus on regulating them,” it said. “The Committee sought the basis for the Islamic Ideological Council’s judgment.”
Meanwhile, Senator Afnan Ullah questioned the legality of the interior ministry’s letter, saying that VPNs do not fall under the umbrella of social media apps. “The Committee directed the PTA to seek the legal opinion of the Attorney General of Pakistan on whether or not VPNs fall under the ambit of social media apps,” the statement said.
Digital rights activists and bodies have criticized Pakistan’s recent Internet restrictions, notably after the February general elections, where allegations of electoral manipulation led to the blocking of social media platform X.
Media reports also suggested the government was setting up a national firewall, which had led to the slowdown of Internet speed across Pakistan, saying the decision was taken to curb “anti-state narratives” by political activists.
Discussing the reasons for the Internet disruptions, Khan criticized the IT minister for not attending the meeting.
“She stated that there are around 2.5 million freelancers in the country, and the recent Internet disruption was causing hindrances for them in earning their livelihood,” the press release said. “Despite inviting the minister for IT, she didn’t bother to attend the meeting for the third consecutive time.”
It said the committee decided to highlight the IT minister’s inability to defend his ministry’s decisions in a letter to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Among users of VPNs in Pakistan are supporters of the country’s imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan, who have called for a march on Islamabad on Nov. 24 to pressure the government for his release.


Pakistan needs additional $191.8 billion for low-carbon transition by 2050 — ADB

Updated 19 November 2024
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Pakistan needs additional $191.8 billion for low-carbon transition by 2050 — ADB

  • Pakistan, one of 10 most vulnerable nations to climate change, faces challenges such as floods and extreme heat waves
  • Under its updated Nationally Determined Contributions, Pakistan has pledged to reduce GHG emissions by 50% by 2030

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will need an additional $191.8 billion between 2020-2050 to transition to a low-carbon energy system and meet its international climate commitments, an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report released this month said.
The report outlines a detailed pathway to help the South Asian nation reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while maintaining sustainable economic growth. It distinguishes between low-carbon and business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios, with the former focusing on deploying renewable energy, improving energy efficiency and transitioning to cleaner fuels in sectors like power, transport and industry.
“The low-carbon scenario would require an additional investment of $191.8 billion (in 2022 prices) between 2020 and 2050 over the BAU scenario, so the investment commitment is substantial,” the report said.
“Achieving such an ambitious investment program will be challenging,” it added, emphasizing that a significant portion of the required financing would need to come from private sector investments and international financial assistance.
Pakistan, the fifth most populous country in the world, aims to become an upper-middle-income economy by 2047, its centenary year of independence. However, it also remains one of the 10 most vulnerable nations to climate change, facing challenges ranging from devastating floods to extreme heatwaves. 
Under its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted in 2021, Pakistan has pledged to reduce GHG emissions by 50% by 2030, compared to 2015 levels. Of this, 15% is unconditional, while the remaining 35% is contingent upon receiving adequate international financial support.
The ADB report identifies the energy sector as central to Pakistan’s climate transition. 
Investments in hydropower ($153 billion), nuclear power ($103 billion), wind ($62 billion) and solar energy ($51 billion) are necessary to shift away from coal and other fossil fuels. An additional $22 billion is required for modernizing transmission and distribution networks to ensure grid stability.
“The energy sector will need to evolve on a different path,” the report said, highlighting that energy-related emissions could be reduced by 23% by 2030 and 36% by 2050 under the low-carbon scenario compared to the BAU approach.
The report also noted that Pakistan’s renewable energy potential is vast, particularly in solar and wind, given the country’s high sunlight levels and favorable wind conditions. However, achieving these targets would require policy reforms, technological advancements and substantial foreign investments.
The ADB publication emphasized that the low-carbon scenario would involve a shift to cleaner fuels, including natural gas, nuclear power and renewables, as well as the electrification of transport and residential sectors.
By 2050, renewables could account for 61% of electricity generation under this scenario, compared to 17% under the BAU approach.
“Electrification and energy efficiency improvements will play a critical role in reducing demand and emissions,” the report noted, pointing to opportunities such as transitioning from coal to gas in industry and using electricity instead of gas for cooking.
To meet these goals, the report called for strengthening the investment climate, aligning incentives for private sector engagement and enhancing regulatory frameworks.


Pakistan says ‘ready to assist’ as Bangladesh deaths from dengue cross 400

Updated 19 November 2024
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Pakistan says ‘ready to assist’ as Bangladesh deaths from dengue cross 400

  • Around 78,595 patients have been admitted to hospital nationwide in Bangladesh, official figures show
  • Dengue is endemic to Pakistan, which experiences year-round transmission with seasonal peaks

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday extended assistance to Bangladesh as it battles its worst outbreak of dengue in years, with more than 400 deaths as rising temperatures and a longer monsoon season drive a surge in infections, leaving hospitals struggling to cope.
Around 78,595 patients have been admitted to hospitals nationwide in Bangladesh, the latest official figures show. By mid-November, 4,173 patients were being treated, with 1,835 of them in Dhaka, the capital, and 2,338 elsewhere.
Dengue is an illness that spreads through vectors, carried by the bite of an infected mosquito. There is currently no cure or vaccine for dengue fever, which in its most severe form can lead to fatalities. People affected by dengue go through intense flu-like symptoms including high fever, intense headache, muscle and joint pain, and nausea and vomiting, typically persisting for approximately a week.
“Deeply saddened by the loss of precious lives due to the dengue outbreak in Bangladesh,” Sharif said in a message on X. “Pakistan stands in solidarity with our brothers and sisters in Bangladesh at this difficult time and we stand ready to assist in whatever way we can.”
Dense populations in cities exacerbate the spread of the disease, usually more common in the monsoon season from June to September though it has spilled beyond that window this year.
A rise in temperatures and longer monsoons, both linked to climate change, have caused a spike in mosquito breeding, driving the rapid spread of the virus in Bangladesh.
Last year was the deadliest on record in the current crisis, with 1,705 deaths and more than 321,000 infections reported.
The growing frequency and severity of outbreaks strains Bangladesh’s already overwhelmed health care system, as hospitals battle to treat thousands of patients.
Bangladesh health officials have urged precautions against mosquito bites, such as mosquito repellents and bed nets, while experts want tougher measures to eliminate the stagnant waters where mosquitoes breed.
Dengue fever is endemic to Pakistan, which experiences year-round transmission with seasonal peaks.
With inputs from Reuters


Defiant Lebanese harvest olives in the shadow of war

Updated 19 November 2024
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Defiant Lebanese harvest olives in the shadow of war

  • A World Bank report this month said that “the disruption of the olive harvest caused by bombing and displacement is expected to lead to $58 million in losses” in Lebanon

KFEIR: On a mountain slope in south Lebanon, agricultural worker Assaad Al-Taqi is busy picking olives, undeterred by the roar of Israeli warplanes overhead.
This year, he is collecting the harvest against the backdrop of the raging Israel-Hezbollah war.
He works in the village of Kfeir, just a few kilometers (miles) from where Israeli bombardment has devastated much of south Lebanon since Israel escalated its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in September.
“But I’m not afraid of the shelling,” Taqi said, as he and other workers hit the tree branches with sticks, sending showers of olives tumbling down into jute bags.
“Our presence here is an act of defiance,” the 51-year-old said, but also noting that the olive “is the tree of peace.”
Kfeir is nine kilometers (six miles) from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, in the mixed Christian and Druze district of Hasbaya, which has largely been spared the violence that has wracked nearby Hezbollah strongholds.
But even Hasbaya’s relative tranquillity was shattered last month when three journalists were killed in an Israeli strike on a complex where they were sleeping.
Israel and Hezbollah had previously exchanged cross-border fire for almost a year over the Gaza conflict.
The workers in Kfeir rest in the shade of the olive trees, some 900 meters (3,000 feet) above sea level on the slopes of Mount Hermon, which overlooks an area where Lebanese, Syrian and Israeli-held territory meet.
They have been toiling in relative peace since dawn, interrupted only by sonic booms from Israeli jets breaking the sound barrier and the sight of smoke rising on the horizon from strikes on a south Lebanon border village.
Hassna Hammad, 48, who was among those picking olives, said the agricultural work was her livelihood.
“We aren’t afraid, we’re used to it,” she said of the war.
But “we are afraid for our brothers impacted by the conflict,” she added, referring to the hundreds of thousands of Lebanese displaced by the fighting.
Elsewhere in south Lebanon, olive trees are bulging with fruit that nobody will pick, after villagers fled Israeli bombardment and the subsequent ground operation that began on September 30.
A World Bank report this month said that “the disruption of the olive harvest caused by bombing and displacement is expected to lead to $58 million in losses” in Lebanon.
It said 12 percent of olive groves in the conflict-affected areas it assessed had been destroyed.
Normally, the olive-picking season is highly anticipated in Lebanon, and some people return each year to their native villages and fields just for the harvest.
“Not everyone has the courage to come” this time, said Salim Kassab, who owns a traditional press where villagers bring their olives to extract the oil.
“Many people are absent... They sent workers to replace them,” said Kassab, 50.
“There is fear of the war of course,” he said, adding that he had come alone this year, without his wife and children.
Kassab said that before the conflict, he used to travel to the southern cities of Nabatiyeh and Sidon if he needed to fix his machines, but such trips are near impossible now because of the danger.
The World Bank report estimated that 12 months of agriculture sector losses have cost Lebanon $1.1 billion, in a country already going through a gruelling five-year economic crisis before the fighting erupted.
Areas near the southern border have sustained “the most significant damage and losses,” the report said.
It cited “the burning and abandonment of large areas of agricultural land” in both south and east Lebanon, “along with lost harvests due to the displacement of farmers.”
Elsewhere in Kfeir, Inaam Abu Rizk, 77, and her husband were busy washing olives they plan to either press for oil or jar to be served throughout the winter.
Abu Rizk has taken part in the olive harvest for decades, part of a tradition handed down the generations, and said that despite the war, this year was no different.
“Of course we’re afraid... there is the sound of planes and bombing,” she said.
But “we love the olive month — we are farmers and the land is our work.”