Pakistan’s political crisis deepens
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The unraveling of the ruling coalition in the face of the opposition’s no confidence move against Prime Minister Imran Khan has lent an ominous turn to Pakistani politics. The opposition alliance appears confident of having mustered enough votes in the National Assembly to oust the PTI government but it may still be early to predict the endgame.
It will be another week of uncertainty before the voting on the no confidence motion can take place. Sensing the vulnerability of the government, smaller parties in the coalition have raised their stakes. Wheeling and dealing have increased the political uncertainty. With the widening of cracks within the ruling party the odds are heavily stacked against the embattled government.
While there is no precedence in the country’s political history of any elected government being removed by a no confidence vote, the latest development has made the government extremely vulnerable. But the prime minister is not willing to give up without fighting.
Khan’s decision to go to the public has turned the political situation volatile. He has threatened the opposition of dire consequence. The country is moving toward a confrontation with both sides calling their supporters to gather in Islamabad for a show of strength.
It has certainly been a calculated gamble by the opposition alliance when it finally decided to table a confidence motion against the prime minister last week. Its confidence has been boosted by the revolt within the Punjab provincial branch of the PTI against Imran Khan’s handpicked chief minister. In fact, it is the internal party revolt that presents a bigger problem for the PTI government — more than the challenge from the opposition alliance.
The growing ranks of dissidents have worsened the woes of the prime minister. The unraveling of the party in Punjab-- the main bastion of PTI’s political power-- also threatens the survival of the PTI government at the center. The ruling party has lost much public support base in the province because of lack of effective governance and rising inflation but the growing dissent in the ranks has further eroded their authority. A possible fall of the Punjab government could have a domino effect.
While there is no precedence in the country’s political history of any elected government being removed by a no confidence vote, the latest development has made the government extremely vulnerable.
Zahid Hussain
The survival of the Khan government will also depend on the role of the military which has until now been the main pivot of its power. Often described as a ‘hybrid rule,’ it has provided some semblance of political stability in the country for the past three and a half years. But the arrangement seems to have weakened in the past months with the growing difference between the government and the security establishment on a host of domestic and foreign policy issues.
The strains that emerged between the two over the appointment of the ISI chief last year seems to have worsened over the prime minister’s mishandling of sensitive foreign policy issues. Recently, the prime minister slammed Western nations for what he describes as their double standards. It is rare for a head of government using a sensitive foreign policy matter for domestic political purposes.
Apparently the increasing anti-Western rhetoric appears to be driven by the conspiracy theories that some foreign powers are behind the move to oust the government. The prime minister now seems to be playing the populist nationalist card to regain public support. But it may not help him to salvage the situation.
It was the support of the security establishment that helped Imran Khan’s government to survive many political crises in the past. But now with the military establishment stepping back, the prime minister is left to fight his own battle. The perception that the military would stay neutral in the ongoing power tussle has also been the reason for the opposition’s growing confidence.
Threatened by a no-confidence motion, the prime minister is not only reaching out to estranged allies but is also trying to allay public discontent over the rising cost of living. Khan’s recent announcement slashing fuel and electricity prices amid a rising global energy costs is part of the effort to calm down public sentiment. But it seems unlikely that such desperate moves could help him avert the crisis. Instead, there is a danger that the measures will worsen the financial crisis, further weakening the government.
It is indeed the most serious political challenge encountered by the PTI government which is more than halfway through its term. It would be extremely difficult for the prime minister to defeat the no confidence motion without resolving internal party dissent. Whatever happens in the next few days will determine the course of politics in the country. But one thing is clear: the ouster of the PTI government will not end existing political instability.
- Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson Centre and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with Militant Islam and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan. Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ. His latest book ‘No-Win War’ was published this year.
Twitter: @hidhussain
