Will Pakistan’s just announced ‘all-out military operation’ fuel the political fire?

The National Security Committee (NSC) in Pakistan on Friday headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that it planned to launch an all-out military operation against militant groups in the country. Typically, an operation of this size requires an in-depth strategic game plan and at least a couple of weeks to initiate implementation. The civil and military leadership, however, seem to be in a rush. 

The apex court last week gave orders to conduct elections in the province of Punjab, which was vehemently opposed by the ruling coalition Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) with concerns over security and lack of funds. The timing of the high-powered meeting has raised concerns that the rushed announcement will cause a delay or cancellation of elections in the province which have been a major political flashpoint in the country for months.

The press release by NSC stated that the operation would incorporate measures at the political, economic, social, diplomatic and security level. The ruling party had categorically refused to allow for elections-- ordered to be held on May 14- two days prior to the meeting. It’s a fair worry if ‘measures at the political level’ means sacrificing elections over security concerns, something that the ruling party has been vocal about ever since the date for elections came around.  

It’s pertinent to note that two general elections of 2008 and 2013 were successfully carried out when the rate of terrorism was many-folds higher than where it stands today and the country witnessed a high-profile assassination. In comparison, the current security circumstances simply aren’t desperate enough to be a hurdle in the way of constitutionally held elections. 

It’s pertinent to note that two general elections of 2008 and 2013 were successfully carried out when the rate of terrorism was many-folds higher than where it stands today

Naila Mahsud

Sources I have talked to in different government functionaries after the NSC meeting told me that the over-all impression is that the lack of assistance to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to conduct elections is more political than financial, the funds amounting to billions catered to various programs tell us that the government doesn’t lack funds but the will to conduct elections in a province that sees the unprecedented popularity of ex-premier Imran Khan.

This is not to deny that terrorist attacks have gained momentum in the last few months and that multiple intelligence based operations are already underway in various parts of the country, but the NSC meeting shows something more is brewing. A headline stating the ruling PDM can’t possibly conduct elections during an on-going military operation, can be expected. 

With the defense ministry refusing security and the finance ministry declining funds, the announcement of a massive scale operation is the lender of the last resort for the civil leadership to hold onto power a little longer. It could be an exaggeration to think that the sole aim of such a vigorous all-encompassing military operation is political, but the possibility that the ruling PDM would use a military operation for its own political interests cannot be ruled out. 

Internationally, any fresh offensive against militants is likely to be welcomed by the West and the US. Democratic process in Pakistan, then, won’t be a main concern for the international community if the government is engaged in fighting ‘terrorism.’

Amid an unprecedented economic crisis, the press release by the NSC does not have any mention of provincial elections or politics in general, and what exactly transpires is yet to be seen.

However, if this all-out military operation leads to the cancellation of elections in Punjab, then the ruling PDM has pushed the military to the front of its political battle with ousted PM Imran Khan.

- Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues. Twitter: @MahsudNaila