Gamble of thrones: Nawaz Sharif to end exile

After a self-proclaimed exile of four years, Nawaz Sharif, the supremo of one of Pakistan's largest political parties has decided to return to Pakistan to hold a political campaign for the upcoming general election. With strong military support to Pakistan Democratic Party (PDM), a party alliance created in 2020 to oust ex-PM Imran Khan, and with the latter in aggravated political turmoil, Sharif has to gamble and return before he misses the train.  

Pakistan’s politics have an ironic way of unfolding. Alliances between arch rivals are not unheard of in the political discourse of the country. For 16 months after a no-confidence motion dismissed Imran Khan, most of the alliance partners of PDM agreed on major issues with none breaking free. The goal was to drag the movement up to the general elections expected in January 2024.   

When PML-N unanimously came to power in 2013, its adversary, General Musharraf, was stripped of influence and power. Back then, Nawaz Sharif could do it alone without making a political alliance. A decade later however, his current adversary remains locked away but not eliminated. It’s going to be a balancing act and Sharif should not overestimate his political leverage. 

The former ruling coalition alliance was made for the sole reason of ousting Imran Khan. With a plethora of political parties pursuing individual outcomes in the general elections, the movement has started to wither away. One major reason for the likelihood of two major parties, PML-N and PPP, to drift away is prisoner's dilemma. They are both wary of one another's intentions and distrust each other inherently. For instance, in 2019, both the parties agreed to launch an aggressive campaign against the government on account of rising inflation, and sought to remove PTI's chairman in the senate. When the motion failed, PML-N accused PPP of dubious activity to weaken the former under the garb of an alliance.

Sharif has hardly ever been a military darling but he has a lot to gain from what the military wants.  Naila Mehsud 

Naila Mahsud

In another instance, PPP and PML-N planned to launch an agitation with alliance partner Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam’s Fazl-ur-Rehman. Although both the parties participated in the initial processions of Azadi March, they did not show up to the final sit-in, abandoning Rehman and his workers.  

The probability of Khan coming to power in the near future is almost none-- he is nobody’s favorite in the corridors of power. Sharif knew this, and knew that PPP was not what those corridors wanted to see ruling Pakistan for the next five years either. With these limited options, Sharif, it appears, wants to take the next political journey alone.  

Sharif is no amateur. Reviving lost glory, he has gone a step further and asked for fair accountability of Pakistan’s ex-army chief and intelligence heads, who he thinks were responsible for throwing him out of influence. Sharif has hardly ever been a military darling but he has a lot to gain from what the military wants.  

His history with the country’s powerful security establishment is anything but cordial. He was thrown out of power twice and he is unlikely to prolong that relationship longer than is necessary. 

PML-N is more likely to gain political power in the next elections, if no rift erupts between the establishment and Nawaz sharif. Meanwhile, the establishment will have to walk a tight rope as this is the first time it has run out of options.  

With the absence of trust between PML-N and the main political parties in Pakistan, and with the bitter history between Sharif and the military, his decision to return is a choice to take the "battle of wills" to the establishment – his way and will or theirs.  Indeed, all are gambling for the throne.

– Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues.

Twitter: @MahsudNaila