Embracing new realities benefits Turkiye’s foreign policy

In the past two decades Turkiye has pursued an increasingly proactive and interventionist foreign policy in line with the geopolitical transformations and structural challenges of regional conflicts.

With fewer domestic constraints, Turkish policymaking apparatus has had ample room for maneuver and flexibility to formulate an ambitious foreign policy, which at times has strained relations with both global and regional actors.

Ibrahim Kalin, who was chief foreign policy adviser to Recep Tayyip Erdogan when he was prime minister and is now intelligence chief, introduced the term “precious loneliness” to international relations literature to justify Turkiye’s Middle East policy, which was very much criticized during that era. When he first used this term, a serious diplomatic row had broken out between Ankara and Cairo. Turkiye, which already had strained relations with Syria and Israel, had also started to see difficulties with some Gulf states. Every effort made to restore Turkiye’s ties with Egypt, Israel and the Gulf states failed to yield serious fruits for at least a decade.

With new structural challenges, a new era has opened in Turkiye’s relations with states that it was previously at odds with, and Turkiye has been gradually building on this new era with all tools that it can employ, politically, economically, and socially.

The obvious recalibration in Turkish foreign policy has been closely observed by the region. Both internal and external factors have contributed to the shift. Internal factors include domestic political developments (two recent elections), economic challenges, and public opinion. External factors include shifts in the global power dynamics (post-American era in the Middle East), regional conflicts (Israeli war in Gaza), and the diplomatic pressure of being part of the broader reconciliation climate in the region which started with the AlUla declaration of 2021.

These factors have led Ankara to adopt a foreign policy characterized by greater pragmatism and restraint. Turkiye’s newfound momentum in relations with the US, Egypt, and Iraq have been instrumental in this transformation. Ankara’s relations with Washington entered a new chapter when the Turkish parliament signed off on Sweden’s NATO membership and the US Congress approved the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkiye. Erdogan’s visit to Egypt marked a new era in that strategic partnership. The Egyptian president’s imminent visit to Ankara will add to that. The Turkiye-Iraq security summit in Baghdad in mid-March was a forward leap in relations. The two governments took joint steps to combat the PKK, and discussed the creation of a security corridor along their land border and expediting the Development Road project.

Turkiye’s current foreign policy echoes the era before 2010, in which cooperation with regional actors was a key aspect of the strategy

Sinem Cengiz

In the domestic realm, three significant developments shaped Turkish foreign policy transformation: May 2023 elections, followed by March 2024 elections, and a reshuffle of the foreign policy apparatus. The appointment of Hakan Fidan, former intelligence chief, as the head of foreign affairs gave a new momentum in Turkish foreign policy. Although this shift suggested a policy in which intelligence and diplomacy are now in close cooperation, in the end, it is Erdogan who determines the parameters of foreign policy. But it is noteworthy that when heading the national intelligence service Fidan had a significant influence in the shaping and implementation of foreign policy, especially toward Syria, and was the main architect of Turkiye’s efforts to normalize relations with the Middle Eastern countries Ankara alienated over the course of the past decade. This is certainly showing its impact in the new, calmer and more pragmatic foreign policy approach. Fidan is known for his calm and silent diplomacy, closely reading the changing dynamics in the region and navigating the foreign policy landscape accordingly.

Past elections have prompted a reflection on “what went wrong,” resulting in a recalibration in foreign policy. Despite no change in government or leadership, it appears that election outcomes have notably influenced the priorities of Turkish foreign policymakers, and as a result the direction of the country's foreign policy.

Turkiye’s current foreign policy echoes the era before 2010, in which cooperation with regional actors was a key aspect of the strategy. Economic considerations are currently taking precedence over ideological factors in shaping foreign policy decisions. In a world order characterized by uncertain multipolarity, Turkiye, like other regional powers, believes that it has a wide space for maneuver in its foreign policy in the pursuit of “strategic autonomy.” This approach, however, aligns with cooperation among regional actors. As can be seen in regional crises, Turkiye refrains from making unilateral moves, as it used to, and seeks to move in coordination with regional and global actors. Although some may interpret this as passive, Turkiye’s new foreign policy approach reflects rationality and caution, especially when the regional environment is restrictive. As it continues to carefully read new regional realities while also engaging with regional actors, Turkiye's role in the region is likely to be embraced.

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz.