Did the UK vote for Starmer — or against the Conservatives?

When Sir Keir Starmer told an elated group of Labour Party faithful in the early hours of Friday, “We did it. Change begins now,” he did so in the knowledge that despite a landslide victory in the UK general election, he remains anything but safe.
Starmer’s win makes him only the fourth Labour leader to take the party into government since the Second World War, and only the second in the past 50 years. There were of course James Callaghan and Gordon Brown — but they became PM by default following leadership elections within the party.
Britain is traditionally a conservative country and it is rare that Labour has held power for successive terms — Tony Blair achieved it, but Brown was out after barely three years.
“Ah, yes,” I hear you respond, “but Brown was appointed PM after he won an uncontested leadership competition in the Labour Party following Blair’s resignation; he wasn’t elected PM.”
But both John Major and Boris Johnson did just that as Conservative Party leaders. They were both challenged and won the leadership battle before going on to win majorities at the following general elections.
Starmer’s honeymoon period is likely to be short, assuming there is one at all.
His approach now will no doubt see him pursue domestic policy, but there are many — both at home and abroad — who will want to know about his foreign policy.
If you are reading this from the Middle East, or in any way support the Palestinian cause, prepare to be underwhelmed — from the outset of the war in Gaza, Starmer has either adopted a clear stance of support for Israel, or taken the “scale back” approach, while steering clear of actual calls for action against Tel Aviv.
In May, Starmer did say he wanted to recognize a Palestinian state if he won power — but with the proviso that such a move would need to come at the right time in a peace process.
It is worth mentioning that at the same time Ireland, Spain, and Norway all said they would recognize a Palestinian state.
If Starmer is to hold power for longer than one term, he will likely prioritize domestic policies over foreign affairs issues, except those that directly affect the British economy.
There is a lot to focus on: Britain still faces a cost-of-living crisis, unemployment remains high, fuel bills are crippling household budgets, and families unable to afford supermarket bills are queuing at food banks.
And, of course, there is the increasingly popular, but frankly ill-founded, claim that Britain is overrun with migrants. It is not, but this remains a hot ticket issue with all political movements.
In truth, there have been momentary increases in immigration in the UK in recent years, but as the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford highlighted, both history and future predictions show that emigration will result in a consistent number of foreign nationals living in the country.
Most people who travel to live in the UK either do so to study or for existing work reasons, and are in the country temporarily. Those who moved there after Russia invaded Ukraine did so with the intention of one day returning to their homeland, and indeed many already have.

The poll saw the lowest turnout in 20 years, with less than 60 percent bothering to vote.

Peter Harrison

Starmer, while claiming to be a man of the people, will have to also please those traditionally right-wing voters who moved over to support change after 14 years of Conservative rule, but not necessarily switch their long-term allegiance away from the Tories.
And there are large numbers of people who did not vote Labour — somehow, he needs to win them over.
In the Bassetlaw constituency, where this writer votes using his mother as a proxy, a vast 56.5 percent of the registered electorate voted for the other candidates. A mere 41.2 percent voted for the incoming Labour candidate, with 2.3 percent returning blank or spoilt ballot papers.
In England, the lack of representation is highlighted even more when you consider that independent politicians claimed a combined 6,418,370 votes, while Labour claimed just 9,686,329.
The main parties need to address the electoral system if they are to put an end to the continued spiral of British politics — it is clear to anyone watching that a vast number of UK nationals remain unimpressed and yet, under the current system, are not being recognized or represented.
Why should the main parties care? They have a guaranteed future — well, they used to, but with the Reform Party and the Greens, as well as other independents, including former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, winning seats, there is every chance that more people might be inspired to vote next time.
And they might be more inclined to vote for the smaller parties. If that happens then the push for electoral reform will likely be unavoidable.
Starmer might have won with a historic majority. But as Boris Johnson’s majority inherited by Rishi Sunak shows, there is no guarantee that a disgruntled electorate will not change their minds again.
And while he tries to please all the people all the time, this might prove increasingly tricky for Starmer.
There is a saying in Britain, albeit a rather defeatist one, that tries to somehow support the rather apathetic view that there is no point in voting. It goes like this: “No matter who you vote for, the government always wins.”
The 2024 election saw the lowest turnout in 20 years, with less than 60 percent of people bothering to vote.
In 2022, the Electoral Commission surveyed people about their voting habits and found that contrary to popular belief, those aged 24 or below were less likely to register to vote than those aged 55 and older.
There was a 77 percent approval to the statement “It’s not really worth voting,” despite there being a 91 percent agreement with “It’s everyone’s duty to vote.”
Starmer needs to convince the apathetic to agree that voting matters if he intends to maintain the support gained in the election, or even win a second term.
The incoming prime minister is not popular — for many it was the case that he just wasn’t the Conservative Party, and after 14 years in power enough voters in the right places wanted a change.
Whether Starmer can prevent that desire for change from happening again, this time in five years against him, remains to be seen.

• Peter Harrison is a senior editor at Arab News in the Dubai office. He has covered the Middle East for more than a decade. X: @PhotoPJHarrison