Realpolitik guiding Turkish-Armenian normalization process

A notable milestone was achieved on Tuesday, when the special representatives from Turkiye and Armenia, who have been tasked with the normalization of relations between the two nations, met at the Margara-Alican border crossing, which has been closed since 1993. The representatives reportedly began their meeting on the Armenian side of the border before proceeding to the Turkish side.

The potential for a breakthrough had been hinted at the previous week, when Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan inspected the fully prepared Margara checkpoint on the Armenian side, as residents on both sides of the border watched such developments with cautious interest. While the meeting at the border was symbolically significant, those familiar with Turkish-Armenian normalization efforts understand that symbolism plays a crucial role in their diplomatic engagements.

In February 2023, following devastating earthquakes in Turkiye, the sole land border crossing between the two countries was reopened for the first time in more than 30 years to facilitate the passage of humanitarian aid. This reopening was symbolically important as the two nations do not have formal relations, although a rapprochement process is ongoing. The same border crossing had also been used in 1988 following a major earthquake in Armenia, when the Turkish Red Crescent Society sent aid to the affected areas.

Tuesday’s meeting marked the first encounter of the special representatives since the one held in Vienna in July 2022, which was their fifth meeting. At that time, the two sides agreed to allow third-country citizens to cross the border, although this agreement was never put into practice.

The idea of opening the border crossing as a step toward normalization is not new and this is not the first time Turkiye and Armenia have come close to normalizing their bilateral relations. In 2008, then-Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited Yerevan to watch a football match between the two national teams, an effort termed “football diplomacy.” This visit followed a historic reconciliation process initiated in 2009, when the two sides signed protocols in Zurich aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations and reopening the border.

However, this initiative, which was part of Turkiye’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy, was unsuccessful due to unresolved territorial disputes over Nagorno-Karabakh. The protocols were never ratified, though the effort was seen as a significant moment in Turkish-Armenian relations.

The current regional and domestic context is markedly different from 2009. In the post-2009 era, Turkiye has been preoccupied with issues related to the Arab uprisings, particularly in Syria, shifting its foreign policy focus away from Armenia. Meanwhile, for Yerevan, relations with Turkiye have consistently been a top priority. An Armenian journalist once noted: “Armenia occupies the ninth or 10th place in Turkiye’s foreign policy agenda, overshadowed by Syria, Iraq, the EU and the US. In Armenia, however, issues related to Turkiye are at the forefront of foreign policy and media coverage.” This highlights the disparity in how the two countries prioritize their interests and perceived threats.

This is not the first time Turkiye and Armenia have come close to normalizing their bilateral relations

Sinem Cengiz

However, currently, both nations face urgent issues that necessitate cooperation, including the climate crisis, migration challenges and economic difficulties. Regional events are also playing a role in shaping attitudes toward the stalemate in bilateral diplomatic relations.

With Russia focusing on Ukraine and Iran dealing with its own problems, Turkiye’s outreach to Armenia and the Armenian government’s pragmatism and willingness to seize this opportunity to advance bilateral relations is important. However, Armenian officials face domestic opposition from nationalists and hard-liners, as well as from the global diaspora. There are existing anti-Turkish and anti-Armenian sentiments in both countries that complicate the normalization efforts.

In the Turkish-Armenian context, it is important to distinguish between normalization and reconciliation, which are two different processes. While normalization requires the opening of borders and establishment of diplomatic relations between states, reconciliation is a thorough process that requires the establishment of positive relations between two societies. This is tougher than just inking deals at the diplomatic table because there are ongoing historical and ideological sensitivities among the respective publics.

That is why Turkiye’s normalization phase with Armenia differs significantly from its efforts with Egypt, Israel or the Gulf states. Various material and nonmaterial issues are in play, as well as the involvement of third parties such as Azerbaijan and the US, which have played both constructive and destructive roles at times in the Turkish-Armenian normalization efforts. Previous normalization attempts have gone through several contradictory phrases, ultimately bearing no fruit.

In the current context, the long-awaited reopening of the border between these two neighboring countries would not only help in bridging the psychological divide between their societies but also provide substantial economic benefits to both sides. Armenia is grappling with severe economic challenges, with many families relying on remittances from relatives abroad.

Armenia, which has a population of about 3 million, shares borders with Azerbaijan, Turkiye, Georgia and Iran. The first two of these neighbors have closed their borders, Iran is under sanctions and Georgia is not in a position to support the Armenian economy. Given the economic and moral toll from the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, reopening the border with Turkiye could be crucial for Armenia. The economic advantages of this development can be expected to materialize swiftly, leading to significant improvements. Moreover, for Armenia, the opening of the border would pave the way for opening a path to the West, while for Turkiye it would widen its influence in the Caucasus region.

While significant challenges and domestic opposition remain, the potential reopening of the Turkiye-Armenia border offers a promising opportunity for both nations to address economic needs and bridge historical divides. This is why, maybe, this time, both states have been prioritizing realpolitik over idealpolitik.

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz