Win the vote but still lose? Behold America’s Electoral College

Combo image showing Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris campaigning as the Nov. 5, 2024, US election approaches. (AFP photos)
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Updated 03 November 2024
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Win the vote but still lose? Behold America’s Electoral College

  • What matters most in a US presidential election is who gets more than 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes, regardless of who gets the most popular votes
  • Because many states predictably lean Republican or Democratic, presidential candidates focus heavily on the handful of “swing” states on which the election will likely turn

WASHINGTON: When political outsider Donald Trump defied polls and expectations to defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election, he described the victory as “beautiful.”
Not everyone saw it that way — considering that Democrat Clinton had received nearly three million more votes nationally than her Republican rival. Non-Americans were particularly perplexed that the second-highest vote-getter would be the one crowned president.
But Trump had done what the US system requires: win enough individual states, sometimes by very narrow margins, to surpass the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the White House.
Now, on the eve of the 2024 election showdown between Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, the rules of this enigmatic and, to some, outmoded, system is coming back into focus.

The 538 members of the US Electoral College gather in their state’s respective capitals after the quadrennial presidential election to designate the winner.
A presidential candidate must obtain an absolute majority of the “electors” — or 270 of the 538 — to win.

The system originated with the US Constitution in 1787, establishing the rules for indirect, single-round presidential elections.
The country’s Founding Fathers saw the system as a compromise between direct presidential elections with universal suffrage, and an election by members of Congress — an approach rejected as insufficiently democratic.
Because many states predictably lean Republican or Democratic, presidential candidates focus heavily on the handful of “swing” states on which the election will likely turn — nearly ignoring some large states such as left-leaning California and right-leaning Texas.
Over the years, hundreds of amendments have been proposed to Congress in efforts to modify or abolish the Electoral College. None has succeeded.
Trump’s 2016 victory rekindled debate. And if the 2024 race is the nail-biter that most polls predict, the Electoral College will surely return to the spotlight.

Who are the electors?

Most are local elected officials or party leaders, but their names do not appear on ballots.
Each state has as many electors as it has members in the US House of Representatives (a number dependent on the state’s population), plus the Senate (two in every state, regardless of size).
California, for example, has 54 electors; Texas has 40; and sparsely populated Alaska, Delaware, Vermont and Wyoming have only three each.
The US capital city, Washington, also gets three electors, despite having no voting members in Congress.
The Constitution leaves it to states to decide how their electors’ votes should be cast. In every state but two (Nebraska and Maine, which award some electors by congressional district), the candidate winning the most votes theoretically is allotted all that state’s electors.

How do electors vote?

In November 2016, Trump won 306 electoral votes, well more than the 270 needed.
The extraordinary situation of losing the popular vote but winning the White House was not unprecedented.
Five presidents have risen to the office this way, the first being John Quincy Adams in 1824.
More recently, the 2000 election resulted in an epic Florida entanglement between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore.
Gore won nearly 500,000 more votes nationwide, but when Florida — ultimately following a US Supreme Court intervention — was awarded to Bush, it pushed his Electoral College total to 271 and a hair’s-breadth victory.

Nothing in the Constitution obliges electors to vote one way or another.
If some states required them to respect the popular vote and they failed to do so, they were subjected to a simple fine. But in July 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that states could impose punishments on such “faithless electors.”
To date, faithless electors have never determined a US election outcome.

When do electors vote?

Electors will gather in their state capitals on December 17 and cast votes for president and vice president. US law states they “meet and cast their vote on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December.”
On January 6, 2025, Congress will convene to certify the winner — a nervously watched event this cycle, four years after a mob of Trump supporters attacked the US Capitol attempting to block certification.
But there is a difference. Last time, it was Republican vice president Mike Pence who, as president of the Senate, was responsible for overseeing the certification. Defying heavy pressure from Trump and the mob, he certified Biden’s victory.
This time, the president of the Senate — overseeing what normally would be the pro forma certification — will be none other than today’s vice president: Kamala Harris.
On January 20, the new president is to be sworn in.
 


Second Australian dies after suspected Laos alcohol poisoning

Updated 8 sec ago
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Second Australian dies after suspected Laos alcohol poisoning

  • A total of six foreign tourists have now died of suspected methanol poisoning in a backpacker hotspot in northern Laos
SYDNEY: A second young Australian tourist has died after apparently ingesting tainted alcohol while on holiday in Laos, Canberra’s foreign minister said Friday.
“All Australians will be heartbroken by the tragic passing of Holly Bowles,” Penny Wong said in a statement. “Just yesterday, Holly lost her best friend, Bianca Jones.”
“I know tonight all Australians will be holding both families in our hearts,” the foreign minister added.
A total of six foreign tourists have now died of suspected methanol poisoning in a backpacker hotspot in northern Laos.
They were from Australia, Britain, Denmark and the United States.
Many of the victims were in their teens or early twenties and fell sick after a night out in Vang Vieng.
Australian officials are now pressing Laotian authorities for a full and transparent investigation into what happened.
Alcohol tainted with methanol is suspected to be the cause of death.
Methanol is a toxic alcohol used in industrial and household products like antifreeze, photocopier fluids, de-icers, paint thinner, varnish and windshield wiper fluid.
Despite being toxic to humans, it is sometimes used in cheaply made home brew.

At least 10 killed in Afghanistan attack, interior ministry says

Updated 9 min 54 sec ago
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At least 10 killed in Afghanistan attack, interior ministry says

  • It was not immediately clear who was behind the attack

KABUL: At least 10 people were killed by gunmen in Afghanistan’s northern Baghlan province, Interior Ministry Spokesperson Abdul Mateen Qaniee said on Friday.

It was not immediately clear who was behind the attack.

The Taliban took over the country in 2021 and vowed to restore security to the war-torn nation. Attacks have continued, many of them claimed by the local arm of the militant Daesh group.

In September, 14 people were killed and six others injured in an attack claimed by Daesh in central Afghanistan.


China urges ICC to take ‘objective’ position after Netanyahu arrest warrant

Updated 25 min 30 sec ago
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China urges ICC to take ‘objective’ position after Netanyahu arrest warrant

  • Warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister Yoav Gallant ‘for crimes against humanity and war crimes’
  • China, like Israel and the United States, is not a member of the International Criminal Court

BEIJING: China urged the International Criminal Court on Friday to remain objective and fair after it issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“China hopes the ICC will uphold an objective and just position (and) exercise its powers in accordance with the law,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular press conference in response to a question about the court’s warrant for Netanyahu.
The ICC issued warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday “for crimes against humanity and war crimes” committed between October 8, 2023, and May 20 this year.
It said there were “reasonable grounds” to believe the pair bore “criminal responsibility” for using starvation as a method of warfare and intentionally attacking civilians.
Netanyahu denounced the move as anti-Semitic and the court’s accusations as “absurd and false.”
China, which like Israel and the United States is not a member of the ICC, said it “supports any efforts by the international community on the Palestinian issue that are conducive to achieving fairness and justice and upholding the authority of international law.”
Lin also accused the United States of “double standards” in response to a question about the US opposition to the court’s pursuit of Netanyahu, but its support for a warrant against Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
“China consistently opposes certain countries only use international law when it suits them... and engaging in double standards,” Lin said.
US President Joe Biden has condemned the warrants against Israeli leaders, calling them “outrageous.”


COP29 host urges collaboration as deal negotiations enter final stage

Updated 32 min 5 sec ago
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COP29 host urges collaboration as deal negotiations enter final stage

  • Sweeping plan that would see rich nations pledge to hand over hundreds of billions of dollars to help poorer countries grapple with the worsening impacts of global warming

BAKU: COP29 climate summit host Azerbaijan urged participating countries to bridge their differences and come up with a finance deal on Friday, as negotiations at the two-week conference entered their final hours.
World governments represented at the meeting in the Caspian Sea city of Baku are tasked with agreeing a sweeping plan that would see rich nations pledge to hand over hundreds of billions of dollars to help poorer countries grapple with the worsening impacts of global warming.
Economists have said developing countries need at least $1 trillion annually by the end of the decade, but wealthy nations have so far been resisting. Negotiations have also been clouded by uncertainty over the role of the United States, the world’s top historic greenhouse gas emitter, ahead of climate skeptic President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
“We encourage parties to continue to collaborate within and across groups with the aim of proposing bridging proposals that will help us to finalize our work here in Baku,” the COP29 presidency said in a note to delegates on Friday morning.
It said a new draft deal would be released at midday in Baku, in the hopes of a deal by the end of the day.
Past COPs have traditionally run over time.
Division and discontent over the negotiations have already spilled into the open, after a fresh deal draft was released by the presidency on Thursday that offered two vastly different options that left no-one happy.
Although the 10-page document was slimmed to less than half the size of the previous versions issued at the summit, it avoided stating the total funds countries would aim to invest each year, leaving the space marked with an “X.”
It also reflected big divisions over issues such as whether funds should be offered as grants or loans, and the degree to which different types of non-public finance should count toward the final annual goal.
“I hope they find the sweet spot with this next iteration,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society, a veteran observer of COP summits. “Anything other than that may require rescheduling flights.”
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres returned to Baku from a G20 meeting in Brazil on Thursday, calling for a major push to get a deal and warning that “failure is not an option.”


Ireland’s anti-immigration right eyes election gains

Updated 22 November 2024
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Ireland’s anti-immigration right eyes election gains

  • After recession and economic slowdown from 2008, immigration surged again following the coronavirus pandemic
  • Some 20 percent of Ireland’s 5.4-million population is now foreign-born

Dublin: The Dublin office of lawyer Malachy Steenson doubles as his election campaign headquarters. Outside is an Irish tricolor and a sign reading: “Take back our nation.”
Inside, Steenson summarised his platform for the November 29 vote. “We need to close the borders and stop any more migrants coming in,” he told AFP.
Ireland is one of the few European Union members without any large established far-right party. But for the first time, immigration has become a frontline election issue.
Steenson, white-haired and 61, is part of an emerging group of ultra-nationalist politicians who performed well at local elections this year and now aim to gain a foothold in parliament.
Elected to Dublin City Council in June, he is running as an independent in the inner-city Dublin Central constituency that is now one of Ireland’s most ethnically diverse.
Most mainstream parties have spent much of the campaign bickering over solutions to Ireland’s acute housing shortage.
But for Steenson, migrants and asylum-seekers are exacerbating that crisis.
“If you import people who are going to sit around on welfare in accommodation that should be available to Irish nationals you’re just creating a bigger problem,” he said.
Ireland’s economy has attracted immigrants since the 1990s when eye-popping growth earned it the “Celtic Tiger” moniker.
After recession and economic slowdown from 2008, immigration surged again following the coronavirus pandemic, plugging job vacancies in booming tech, construction, and hospitality sectors, as well as health care.
Some 20 percent of Ireland’s 5.4-million population is now foreign-born. Official data showed a population increase fueled by migration of around 100,000 in the year to April 2024 — the largest since 2007.
But rapid demographic growth has heaped pressure on housing, services and infrastructure strained by lack of investment, fanning anti-migrant sentiment and hitting still largely favorable attitudes to immigration.
“Immigration is on everyone’s minds,” said Caroline Alwright, a fruit and vegetable stall-owner on Moore Street, a historic city-center market which has become a multicultural meeting place for different nationalities.
“A lot of people will vote for independent candidates, they see what is going on in this country,” said Alwright, 62, a veteran trader nicknamed by customers the “Queen of Moore Street.”
“This street has gone downhill, the country is being robbed blind with money given to people doing nothing on welfare,” she added, gesturing toward a group of Eastern European Romani.
In Kennedy’s pub across the constituency several punters also murmured discontent.
“The buses are full of foreigners, I would vote for anyone saying ‘Ireland is full’ and promising to do something about it,” said Mick Fanning, 74.
Around 110,000 Ukrainians have arrived in Ireland since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, one of the highest numbers per head of population in the EU.
Meanwhile asylum applications have surged to record levels since 2022, with this year’s figures driven by a fourfold increase in people arriving from Nigeria.
The large inflow and the housing crisis has prompted the government to stop providing accommodation to all asylum seekers last year.
That forced hundreds of single male applicants to sleep rough in tents, sparking hostile reactions from some anti-migrant locals.
Ireland has also seen a spike in arson attacks on buildings rumored or earmarked to provide reception centers for asylum seekers.
Last year the largest riot seen in Dublin for decades was triggered by a knife attack on children by an Irish national of immigrant origin.
At the other end of the ward, students at Dublin City University were supportive of immigration.
“We are not full, that’s a closed mindset,” said Carla Keogh, 19, a teaching student.
“If we look into our own past, Irish people left to find help and support in other places, as humans we need to open ourselves up.”
The ultra-nationalist vote is fragmented by micro parties and independents, with few, if any, expected to make an electoral breakthrough.
Anti-immigration votes will rather channel toward moderate independents “who are more outspoken on migration” than more radical options, said political scientist Eoin O’Malley, from Dublin City University.
Most mainstream parties have also pledged to tighten up the asylum system.
The number of arrivals from Ukraine dropped this year after the government slashed allowances and accommodation benefits for newly arrived refugees.
“We were called fascists, racists, far-right, when we proposed the same things two years ago, when in fact we are none of those things,” said Steenson who self-describes as a nationalist.