LONDON: Saudi Arabia’s prospects depend more on government reforms becoming “irreversible” than the price of oil, said Moritz Kraemer, global chief rating officer for S&P in an interview with Arab News.
He said: “If oil went to $100 per barrel again there would be a risk of undermining the reform momentum — and helping those campaigning to maintain the previous status quo.
“We don’t think the oil price will determine the fate of the country. The policies that are chosen will determine future economic stability,” said Kraemer.
He added that S&P’s forecast for the average price of crude in 2018 was $60 a barrel, falling to $50 a barrel in 2019, underlining how important it was that KSA reduced its dependence on crude to secure prosperity.
Kraemer said today’s Saudi Arabia contrasts with to an earlier era when there “had been so many internal, opaque checks and balances that you really never had any policy momentum developing in any direction. There was a sort of stagnation in policy-making.”
Looking at recent reform initiatives in KSA, Kraemer noted that the objectives were very demanding, but would most likely be met in the timeframe laid out. However, what was really important was “the direction of travel,” namely bringing in more private capital, to develop the country, “whether that happens slower or faster is less important than the irreversibility of the process,” he said.
The Kingdom should maintain growth of spending, and one way of trying to achieve this was by getting the private sector more involved in service delivery, health and education and also infrastructure.
Asked whether investor appetite for Saudi debt was good, Kraemer said yes, and this was seen when the government issued bonds for the first time in 2016 — with the $17.5 billion offering oversubscribed four times.
But the domestic capital market still needs developing. The take-up of Saudi government bonds was largely, but not exclusively, by foreign investors. The local market was relatively undeveloped compared to countries such as Turkey and the UAE, he said.
To remedy matters, Kraemer said regulation needed to be “more helpful,” although the authorities were working on improvements.
The assignment of credit ratings to Saudi companies would help domestic corporates to raise debt both at home and abroad — but for this to happen KSA groups would have to disclose more details about their affairs, he said.
In the context of Vision 2030, Kraemer flagged up significant financing needed for infrastructure projects. “We foresee a lot of activity linked to PPPs (public private partnerships). Funding would be partly covered by the banks, but some would have to come from debt markets,” said Kraemer.
With interest rates rising, he was relaxed about the effect on KSA. During S&P studies, the Kingdom regularly showed up as least vulnerable to the threat of outflows of foreign capital in a rising interest rate environment.
Turkey was among the countries most at risk, he said, but Qatar also had issues.
He said: “If you look at what Qatar needs to borrow compared to how much foreign exchange reserves they have, and how much current account receipts they have, it looks quite weak. They need to pay and borrow more than KSA — not in absolute terms, but relative to their export receipts.”
On the other hand, Qatar had substantive external investments, and “a hugely liquid portfolio of foreign bonds and shares that they could run down if there was a squeeze, so they were well buffered.”
Saudi debt would not reach anywhere near something that “could be described as alarming,” according to S&P forecasts, he said.
According to the World Bank’s 2018 outlook on the Middle East and North Africa, growth in the region is expected to jump to 3 percent in 2018 from 1.8 percent in 2017.
Growth in Saudi Arabia was forecast to accelerate to 1.2 percent in 2018 from 0.3 percent in 2017, while in Egypt, growth is anticipated to pick up to 4.5 percent from 4.2 percent last year.
In a report at the end of 2017, S&P said its stable outlook on KSA was based on the expectation that the Saudi authorities would continue to take steps to consolidate public finances and maintain government liquid assets close to 100 percent of GDP over the next two years.
It added: “We think the risks emanating from recent shifts in Saudi Arabia’s political power structures and societal norms, alongside various regional stresses, are balanced by the possibility that these structural reforms could empower Saudi citizens and make Saudi Arabia more attractive to investors over the medium term.”
But S&P said its ratings could come under pressure if it observed a significant increase in domestic or regional political instability as a result of the increasing centralization of power.
Future of Saudi economy about policy, not prices says S&P chief
Future of Saudi economy about policy, not prices says S&P chief
Saudi Arabia launches company to transform Asir into global tourism hub
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Asir region has launched a new tourism venture through a partnership with the aim of creating a holding company to transform the area into a global tourist destination.
The collaboration between Aseer Investment Co., a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund, and Rikaz Real Estate, aligns with the goal of transforming Asir into a world-class tourist destination that combines authentic heritage with sustainable development, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
The holding company seeks to contribute to enhancing a tourism environment that enriches guests’ experiences with unique offerings, connecting visitors to local culture and community traditions, SPA reported.
It is also committed to promoting sustainable tourism by protecting the environment, developing local communities, and collaborating with artisans and local businesses to preserve the authenticity of Asir’s heritage.
In October, the Kingdom’s Abha city secured a new investment partnership to boost tourism by developing culturally rich dining and retail experiences.
PIF firm Aseer Investment Co. signed the deal with Nimr Real Estate and the National Co. for Tourism, or Syahya, to propel the project, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
This aligns with the objectives of developing Abha, which will offer a range of benefits, including retail stores that reflect the cultural heritage of the Asir region.
The partnership also seeks to be a model for multiple collaborations with private sector investors and create more regional job opportunities.
Investments in the region are expected to create between 14,000 and 18,000 job prospects and contribute to up to 6 percent of the non-oil gross domestic product within 10 years, as outlined by AIC Chief Executive Osama Al-Othman in February.
Saudi Arabia emerged as a leader in tourism growth among G20 nations, experiencing a 73 percent increase in international visitors in the first seven months of 2024 compared to 2019.
According to the UN World Tourism Barometer report in September, the Kingdom welcomed 17.5 million international tourists during this timeframe, showcasing its growing allure as a global travel destination.
This surge is part of the nation’s Vision 2030 initiative, which aims to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on oil revenues.
“Saudi Arabia cements its global leadership and takes the first spot among G20 countries in international tourist arrivals growth, with a 73 percent increase in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2019,” stated the Saudi Tourism Ministry on X.
Under the National Tourism Strategy, the Kingdom aims to attract 150 million visitors by 2030 and increase the sector’s contribution to the nation’s gross domestic product from 6 percent to 10 percent.
These goals reflect the country’s commitment to strengthening its tourism sector and enhancing its global appeal.
IMF, Saudi Arabia announce new annual conference tackling global economic challenges
RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund and Saudi Arabia will jointly organize a high-level annual conference in AlUla to discuss global economic challenges, it has been announced.
The AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies will bring together a select group of finance ministers, central bank governors, and policymakers, along with leaders from the public and private sectors, representatives from international institutions, and members of academia.
According to a joint statement by Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of IMF and the Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan, the first edition of this series will be held from Feb. 16-17, 2025.
“The world is confronting deeper and more frequent shocks, including from conflicts, geoeconomic fragmentation, pandemics, climate change, food insecurity, and the digital divide,” according to the statement.
They continued: “If not addressed adequately, these shocks put at risk emerging market economies’ hard-won improvements in living standards. Such setbacks would affect large segments of the world population and put at risk global growth and macro-financial stability.”
The gathering will offer a platform to exchange views on domestic, regional, and global economic developments and discuss policies and reforms to spur inclusive prosperity and build resilience supported by international cooperation.
Recent economic issues affecting the global landscape include rising inflation rates, driven by supply chain disruptions and increased demand for goods post-pandemic.
Supply chain delays continue to impact the availability of essential products, causing bottlenecks in manufacturing and increasing costs.
Additionally, geopolitical conflicts, such as the war in Gaza, have disrupted energy supplies and food exports, leading to global food insecurity and fuel price volatility.
Concerns over the using the Red Sea shipping lane increased dramatically at the end of 2023, when Houthi militants stepped up attacks on vessels in the wake of the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
The effects of these challenges pose significant risks to economic stability, especially for emerging markets that are more vulnerable to such global shocks.
The AlUla conference is the latest example of the growing relationship between Saudi Arabia and the IMF, with the organization in April establishing its first office in the Middle East and North Africa region in Riyadh.
The facility was launched during the Joint Regional Conference on Industrial Policy for Diversification, jointly organized by the IMF and the Ministry of Finance, on April 24.
The new office aims to strengthen capacity building, regional surveillance, and outreach to foster stability, growth, and integration, thereby promoting partnerships in the Middle East and beyond, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
The work hub will promote closer collaboration between the IMF and regional institutions, governments, and other stakeholders, according to the SPA report.
The IMF also expressed its gratitude to the Kingdom for its financial contribution aimed at supporting capacity development in member countries, including fragile states.
Closing Bell: Saudi Arabia’s TASI ends in the red, trading volume hits $2.95bn
RIYADH: The Tadawul All Share Index concluded the last session of the week at 11,791.18 points, down by 139.27 points or 1.17 percent.
The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index also saw a decline, dropping 19.18 points to close at 1,481.36, reflecting a 1.28 percent loss. In contrast, the parallel market Nomu finished Thursday’s trading at 29,467.71 points, up 262.18 points or 0.90 percent.
TASI reported a trading volume of SR11.10 billion ($2.95 billion), with 51 stocks advancing and 182 declining. The top performer of the day was Saudi Cable Co., which saw its share price surge by 5.10 percent to SR92.70.
Other strong performers included Shatirah House Restaurant Co., which gained 3.75 percent to reach SR21, and Arabian Mills for Food Products Co., which rose by 3.08 percent to SR53.60. Naseej International Trading Co. and Saudi Real Estate Co. also posted notable gains.
The worst performer was Saudi Real Estate Co., which dropped 4.94 percent to close at SR10. Alkhaleej Training and Education Co. and Red Sea International Co. also suffered significant losses, with their share prices falling by 4.90 percent to SR29.10 and 4.84 percent to SR68.80, respectively. Astra Industrial Group and Al-Omran Industrial Trading Co. were also among the day’s largest decliners.
On the parallel market, Nomu, Alqemam for Computer Systems Co. was the top gainer, rising by 9.57 percent to SR103. Other gainers included Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars Co., which climbed 9.10 percent to SR42.55, and Horizon Educational Co., which rose by 7.58 percent to SR79.50. Mulkia Investment Co. and Knowledge Tower Trading Co. also saw significant increases.
On the losing side of Nomu, WSM for Information Technology Co. recorded the largest drop, with its share price falling by 6.18 percent to SR44. Osool and Bakheet Investment Co. and Natural Gas Distribution Co. also experienced notable declines, with their shares dropping by 5.37 percent to SR37.85 and 5 percent to SR57, respectively.
Leaders stress urgent need for climate finance at COP29 ministerial dialogue
RIYADH: Global climate finance continues to fall short of expectations, as leaders gathered at the COP29 Ministerial Dialogue on Climate Finance to address ongoing challenges and map out next steps.
The meeting, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, underscored the urgent need for increased and more effective funding mechanisms. COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev emphasized that climate finance plays a central role in the broader negotiations.
“The urgency of the situation is evident,” Babayev remarked, pointing to the severe impacts of climate change observed over the past year. “Recently, we witnessed catastrophic flooding in Spain, and in the Pacific region, island communities are faced with the possibility of being wiped out entirely. We must act now; failure to do so will have grave human and economic costs.”
The president stressed the importance of fulfilling the $100 billion-per-year commitment made in Copenhagen and reiterated in Paris, urging leaders to reflect on lessons learned and consider the quality and allocation of financial resources.
Developing countries once again voiced the need for tangible action, with Fiji’s Deputy Prime Minister Biman Prasad highlighting the importance of aligning climate finance with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
“This is a ‘put your money where your mouth is’ moment,” Prasad said. “The 1.5°C temperature goal and the Paris Agreement itself will not be deliverable from both an economic and scientific perspective if we do not invest right. The New Collective Quantified Goal is critical for aligning our priorities and addressing major inconsistencies,” he added.
The EU reaffirmed its commitment to climate finance, noting that the $100 billion goal was first collectively met in 2022, with contributions reaching $115.9 billion.
“The EU and its member states contributed €28.5 billion, or around $30 billion, in climate finance from public sources,” a representative said. “Almost half of the public funding came in the form of grants, with a significant portion provided on concessional terms. We need to make further efforts to facilitate the mobilization of private funding, as it remains a key source of climate finance,” the representative added.
Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, emphasized the critical juncture at which the global community now finds itself.
“The huge opportunities we have and the terrible risks we face are real,” Stiell said. “It’s time to take action to bridge gaps, solve problems, and come together to ensure climate finance and climate action benefit everyone.”
Sweden also announced a significant new contribution, with Ministerial representatives unveiling an $8 billion Swedish krona ($723.6 million) pledge to the second replenishment of the Green Climate Fund.
“This makes Sweden the largest per capita donor to the GCF among the larger donors,” the Swedish representative noted.
As discussions progressed, leaders acknowledged the widening gap between current financial commitments and the funds required to meet the 1.5°C target. There were calls for more robust mobilization of both public and private finance.
The COP29 president concluded: “Delivering the climate fairness that developing countries need is one of the main metrics of shared success. We can learn from past efforts to inform the road ahead, but significant determination and leadership from all parties are required to bridge these critical gaps.”
IsDB, multilateral banks aim for $120bn in annual climate finance by 2030
RIYADH: Multilateral development banks are aiming to mobilize $120 billion annually by 2030 for climate financing in low- and middle-income countries, according to recent projections.
This ambitious funding goal includes $42 billion dedicated to climate adaptation efforts, with an additional $65 billion expected to come from private sector investments.
The target was unveiled in a joint statement issued during COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, by several prominent MDBs, including the Islamic Development Bank, African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Development Bank of the Council of Europe, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the European Investment Bank. Additionally, the Inter-American Development Bank, the New Development Bank, and the World Bank Group are part of the initiative.
The statement emphasized that setting a strong, collective climate finance target is crucial to meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.
“A new collective quantitative target on climate finance that is both strong and ambitious is essential to achieving the Paris Agreement’s objectives,” the statement read. “We urge parties to reach a robust conclusion on this target.”
For high-income countries, the MDBs have set a target of $50 billion in annual climate finance, including $7 billion specifically for adaptation, with private sector mobilization expected to generate an additional $65 billion. This new target builds on the success of previous climate finance goals, with MDBs already surpassing their climate financing projections for 2025. Since 2019, the MDBs have increased direct climate finance by 25 percent and doubled climate mobilization efforts over the past year.
In response to the urgent need for enhanced climate action, the MDBs also emphasized the importance of establishing a new collective quantitative target for climate finance at COP29. The institutions highlighted their commitment to ensuring that the finance provided leads to meaningful, measurable impacts on both climate mitigation and adaptation.
To further enhance the effectiveness of climate finance, the MDBs released the “Common Approach to Measuring Climate Outcomes,” a framework that provides standardized indicators for tracking global progress on climate mitigation and adaptation. This framework aims to better align MDB activities with global climate goals and improve transparency in measuring outcomes.
Additionally, the MDBs published their “Country Climate Action Platforms,” reaffirming their commitment to strengthening collaboration between host countries, MDBs, donors, and the private sector. These platforms are designed to ensure that climate finance is targeted effectively and that developing countries have the support they need to implement robust climate policies.
COP29 has emerged as a critical moment in global climate negotiations, especially for the Global South, where developing nations are pushing for significant climate financing, stronger adaptation measures, and equitable policy outcomes. These countries continue to advocate for a climate finance framework based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, recognizing that nations’ contributions should reflect their respective capabilities and historical responsibilities.
